www.cjonline.com By Amy Bauer The Capital-Journal

The effect of a looming war with Iraq on local gasoline prices is uncertain, but analysts said Tuesday one thing is clear -- consumers shouldn't panic. "I don't think anyone has enough information to predict how things will turn out, but historically the price of gas that people pay at the pump has an awful lot to do with the price of crude oil," said Ron Planting, an analyst for the American Petroleum Institute in Washington, D.C.

Fuel prices have climbed steadily during the past five months because of uncertainty about a potential war; higher demand for heating fuel because of a cold winter; and political unrest and strikes that significantly decreased oil production in Venezuela, the fourth-largest oil-producing nation. The United States relies on Venezuela for 15 percent of its crude oil. The strikes have ended, and its oil production has increased, though not to previous levels.

According to AAA on Tuesday, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in Topeka was $1.66, about 40 cents higher than the same time last year and slightly lower than the national average. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $1.72, which set a record high earlier this week.

Topekans said they were feeling the effects of higher gasoline prices in their driving habits and their wallets.

"It's just outrageous, the prices of gas," said Robert Owens, of Topeka, who was fueling up at the Amoco station at S.E. 6th and Quincy on Tuesday afternoon. "I just go to work and the necessary places like stores and school."

"We think about it every time we get ready to go out," said Topekan Kent Foga, who also was fueling his vehicle at the station. "Anything out of your pocket affects you. After the Iraqi situation is resolved, maybe prices will go back down."

If the events of 1991's Gulf War are a guide, then prices may fluctuate.

"When Iraq invaded Kuwait, there was a sharp increase (in crude oil prices) because the world lost a tremendous amount of oil production -- about 4 million barrels per day," analyst Planting said.

As it became clear the United States and its allies had the advantage, and some government reserves were released, crude oil prices dropped quickly. Planting said that was reflected in a matter of weeks by prices at the gasoline pump.

Tom Palace, executive director of the Petroleum Marketers & Convenience Store Association of Kansas, said, "I see the price of crude actually inching down today (Tuesday). What that means is when the price of crude goes down, your gasoline prices should follow suit at some point in time. Obviously that doesn't all happen overnight or within the hours.

"My guess right now is that the gas prices will remain flat or constant for a little while," Palace said. "I won't say they'll be going down a whole lot. I won't be saying they're going to go up a whole lot. Flat being 5 or 6 cents either side."

He said factors such as the length of any conflict and its effects on oil-producing countries will partially determine crude oil supplies and pricing.

"If it lasts a long time -- any kind of prolonged conflict -- we're going to have to rely on other sources of crude oil," Palace said.

Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC have agreed to increase their output to boost supply, and Planting said the United States, Europe and countries in Asia have strategic reserves -- oil that could be brought into the market in the case of a major supply disruption.

Palace said, "If people just sit back and be smart about what they're doing on a daily basis -- we're all watching how much gas we put in our vehicles because of the cost -- then we should not panic at any time."

"It should be business as usual, which is what we anticipate right now."

Amy Bauer can be reached at (785) 295-1231 or amy.bauer@cjonline.com.

Tips from AAA

• Practice fuel conservation • Keep car maintenance up-to-date • Don't let price changes cause panic • Refuel at 1/4-tank or lower or before long trips

Average fuel prices

Average regular grade unleaded fuel prices Location Current Month ago Year ago Topeka $1.662 $1.614 $1.267 Kansas $1.671 $1.610 $1.262 Nation $1.722 $1.655 $1.266 Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report

Last Modified: 12:02 a.m. - 3/19/2003

www.belleville.com Posted on Wed, Mar. 19, 2003
BY DAVID VAN DEN BERG AP

Under a full moon at dawn in Kuwait, a soldier with the U.S. Army's 7th Infantry Regiment walked past a line of Bradley tanks.

Metro-east drivers have no reason to panic about the impact of war with Iraq on gasoline prices, industry experts say.

"I don't think it's going to be a big deal," said Mike Right, a spokesman for the American Automobile Association in St. Louis. "I think there's other things going on in the oil markets that are going to be as big, if not bigger, a factor in determining what you and I pay at the pump than the Middle East action."

Those other factors, Right said, include the changeover from winter gasoline to summer gasoline -- a change Right said comes with a price penalty that hasn't shown up yet. In addition, Right mentioned low supplies, and an oil industry strike in Venezuela.

Along Illinois 159 between Belleville and Collinsville on Tuesday, prices ranged from $1.54 to $1.64 per gallon.

Muhammad Islam, an economics professor at St. Louis University, said the oil market is betting that the war will be short and that there will not be disruptions in the supply of oil, as evidenced by a drop in the price of crude oil. The price of crude, which reached a 12-year high of $37.83 last Wednesday, has fallen 16 percent over the past four trading sessions.

The price of oil plunged 9 percent Tuesday, falling to its lowest level in more than two months. The April futures contract fell $3.26 to $31.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since Jan. 8.

Jim Forsyth, the CEO of Belleville-based MotoMart, which has 67 gas stations in six states, said once the war starts, the price of oil will likely rise.

"If things look like they're going well, it'll come back down," he said.

Islam said if there is an increase in prices, it will probably be short-lived, because other sources of oil are available.

"The reasonable assumption would be that even if there is a short spike in oil prices, those prices will come down because somebody else will bring more oil to the market," Islam said.

European nations have their own stockpiles that could help make up for any supply shortages resulting from war. In addition, Islam said Saudi Arabia has said they have extra capacity and will pump oil to supply the U.S. market, and there is a possibility the United States could tap into its strategic petroleum reserves.

David Sykuta, the executive director of the Illinois Petroleum Council, said "there's going to be a holding of breath here when things step off." But, Sykuta thinks the United States is in better shape to weather any impact on gas prices than it was during the 1991 Gulf War, in part because the country depends less on oil from the Middle East now.

"We don't depend on them as much as Europe does," he said.

Some information for this story was provided by The Associated Press.

www.euobserver.com

The Labour Party said that the Netherlands should not give ‘political support’ to the Americans. (Photo: EUobserver.com) EUOBSERVER / AMSTERDAM - The risk that the formation of a new centre-left coalition in the Netherlands will collapse over the war on Iraq has increased substantially. In an intense parliamentary debate last night, a sharp clash of opinions took place between the Labour Party (PvdA) and the Christian Democrats (CDA), who are currently negotiating the formation of a new government.

The Labour Party leader, Mr Bos, said that the Netherlands should not give ‘political support’ to the Americans. The PvdA will probably take part in a peace demonstration in Amsterdam on Saturday.

The parliamentary leader of the CDA, Maxime Verhagen, described the position of the PvdA as ‘sad’. The position of Prime Minister Balkenende’s outgoing centre-right cabinet, which has affirmed its ‘political’ but not military support for a US-led Iraq war, is generally regarded as a concession to the PvdA. This concession was necessary if Dutch policy on Iraq was to be consistent after a centre-left Cabinet assumed power.

Building government more difficult However, now the PvdA seems to be sticking to its total rejection of a war on Iraq. This makes a CDA-PvdA coalition, thought to be the only stable combination of parties that has a majority in parliament, increasingly difficult.

The cabinet’s distinction between ‘political’ and ‘military’ support was sharply critisised by both right-wing and left-wing parties as ‘hypocrital’ and ‘cowardly’. The leader of the List Pim Fortuyn (LPF) said that Holland would leave its most important ally, the United States, isolated by refusing military support. According to Femke Halsema, of the Greens (GroenLinks), the Dutch were contributing to the violation of international law by giving its political support to the US.

Dutch Patriot missiles sent to Turkey The distinction between ‘political’ and ‘military’ support is even more remarkable given the fact that Holland is on the list of 30 states who will back the US in its war against Iraq, released by the US State Department on Tuesday.

The Dutch have already sent Patriot missiles to Turkey. Among the 30 states who form part of the ‘coalition of the willing’ are four other EU member states: Denmark, Italy, Spain and the UK. All these other EU member states have offered some form of active military support.

Press Articles De Volkskrant

Written by Mark Beunderman Edited by Honor Mahony

www.euobserver.com

Portugal is not going to declare war on Baghdad, nor will it send troops or participate in any military operations. (Photo: Jan Oberg) Portugal will not participate militarily in an attack on Iraq, according to the Portuguese Prime Minister, Jose Manuel Durão Barroso.

This announcement coincides with the release of a US State Department list of 30 countries that have pledged support over a war with Iraq. Portugal was not one of the named countries.

During a parliamentary debate Tuesday, Mr Durão Barroso guaranteed that support given to George Bush was solely "political" and that Portugal is "not going to declare war on Iraq, nor will it send troops or participate in any military operations."

Allowing the use of airbase Portugal will however allow the use of its airbase at Lajes in the Azores, which hosted the "summit of war" on Sunday. Supporting the US, the prime minister said, will provide Portugal with greater stability and security in the fight against terrorism.

The Portuguese opposition parties have announced that they are going to table a motion of censure over the Government's position and handling of the situation. They have accused the prime minister of violating the constitution, of turning the country into a terrorist target and of disregarding the position of President Jorge Sampaio.

The President is due to make a statement regarding impending military action. Opponents to the prime minister are hoping that the President will declare that war against Iraq is illegitimate and some privately wish that he will threaten to dissolve Parliament, though this is unlikely.

Gulf of opinion Support for Mr Durão Barroso from his own party has been virtually unanimous, unlike his counterparts in Spain and Great Britain. And answering his critics, the prime minister accused the opposition of trying to start an internal war between the political parties. He went on to add that relations between the government and the President, "had probably not been better between since 25 April 1974," (the day of Portuguese independence, after the death of Salazar.)

However there has been a gulf of opinion between Mr Durão Barroso and President Jorge Sampaio.

Mr Sampaio has argued that a war against Iraq without UN Security Council approval would risk seriously undermining the legitimacy of the UN and stated that unilateral actions by Washington would put the future of the United Nations at risk. He also said that the crisis had uncovered acute differences within the internal unity of the European Union, which could damage the creation of a European foreign policy.

Spain providing 900 soldiers for post-war peace keeping Meanwhile, the Spanish prime minister, José Maria Aznar has announced that Spain would not send troops to fight against Iraq, but would instead provide 900 soldiers to be used for post-war peace keeping and humanitarian duties.

It has also offered to provide three ships, including the hospital-ship Galicia. Like Portugal, it would allow its bases to be used by US and UK forces. Spain was only one of two countries holding a rotating seat on the UN Security Council to support the US and the UK.

See press Articles Jornal de Noticias O Publico Diario de Noticias

Written by James Keighley Edited by Honor Mahony

www.euobserver.com

Europe - more divided than ever over war against Iraq.

The war in Iraq began in the early hours of Thursday morning. Following an address by American President George W. Bush around two hours after the expiry of his 48 hour deadline for Saddam Hussein to step down, aerial attacks started in earnest against Iraq.

"Now that conflict has come, the only way to limit its duration is to apply decisive force. And I assure you, this will not be a campaign of half measures and we will accept no outcome but victory," said the American president.

Meanwhile governments all over Europe are holding a series of crisis meetings. The Italian government called a crisis meeting for early this morning, while Spanish premier José María Aznar held telephone calls with the American president and the UK premier Tony Blair after the military attack began, reports Le Figaro.

Mr Aznar is expected to speak later this morning after holding crisis talks with King Juan Carlos and head of the socialist opposition José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

German chancellor Gerhard Schröder arrived in his office minutes after the Anglo-American attack started against Baghdad. He spoke to French president Jacques Chirac and Russian leader Vladimir Putin - the three were united against the war - and he is expected to give a televised speech later.

Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt deplored the start of war and denounced the flouting of international law, the French news agency AFP reported.

Tony Blair will convene a war cabinet with his closest ministers this morning, reports the BBC.

The UN has been left in tatters because of the diplomatic fights about whether to push for a second UN resolution. Its Secretary General Kofi Annan said his thoughts were with the ordinary people of Iraq as they faced the "disaster of war."

He warned the US and UK that "under international law, the responsibility for protecting civilians in conflict falls on the belligerents."

All EU leaders, despite the huge tension caused by the start of the war and the harsh words flung back and forth in the run up to it - particularly between the UK and France - are for the moment still intending to meet this evening in Brussels for the European Spring Council.

See press Articles La Libre Belgique Die Welt Izvestia BBC Sueddeutsche Zeitung CNN Gazeta Wyborcza Le Figaro

Written by Honor Mahony Edited by Sharon Spiteri