United States of America
The United States of America is the world's largest energy producer, consumer, and net importer. It also ranks eleventh worldwide in reserves of oil, sixth in natural gas, and first in coal.
Information contained in this report is the best available as of April 2001 and is subject to change. For the latest monthly U.S. outlook by the Energy Information Administration, please see the "Short-Term Energy Outlook".
www.heraldtribune.com By H. JOSEF HEBERT Associated Press Writer
As the United States and Iraq move closer to war, oil markets seemed to be taking it all in stride. Global crude oil stocks are growing, prices declining and some analysts are talking cautiously of a possible oil glut on the horizon. Lower energy prices probably would follow.
That is, energy experts warned, if a war in Iraq doesn't drag on and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein doesn't torch his oil fields or, in the worst case, finds a way to disrupt other Persian Gulf supplies.
For now, the markets are betting those things won't happen and that the war will be a swift one.
Oil prices dropped by more than $3 a barrel, or about 9 percent, on Tuesday, falling to their lowest in more than two months as traders believed there is enough crude in the system to make up for Iraq's lost production if war erupts.
Oil traders "are beginning .. to realize there's a bit of a glut of oil around," said Leo Drollas, chief economist of the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies.
But that oil has yet to reach the U.S. markets.
The Energy Department said Wednesday U.S. crude oil stocks remained uncomfortably low at 270 million barrels, roughly where inventories have been most of this year and at the minimum industry says is needed for smooth refinery operation. The U.S. stocks increased only slightly over a week ago.
Crude inventories have consistently been 300,000 to 400,000 barrels below a year ago, said Doug MacIntyre, an oil analyst for the Energy Information Administration. Imports also have been down from previous levels, although OPEC producers other than Iraq and strife-torn Venezuela have been pumping more oil for weeks.
The low U.S. inventories reflect transportation delays, but also reluctance by refiners to buy oil when the price has been $35 to $37 a barrel, analysts said.
Much of that oil is now in storage in the Persian Gulf or in tankers on the high seas, say oil analysts. Saudi Arabia is believed to have as much as 50 million barrels in storage in the country and more en route to other storage facilities. That's enough to replace Iraq's 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day for about a month.
Larry Goldstein, president of the private Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, said the markets also have been calmed because the Bush administration has made clear that it's ready to use some of the 600 million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter shortages.
Rep. Billy Tauzin, R-La., chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said this week he is convinced the reserve is capable of providing oil quickly on orders from President Bush. It has shifted "from the fill mode to the flow mode," Tauzin said.
Still, there remains some trepidation among oil traders and analysts should war in Iraq last a while. Crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile in the months to come, they cautioned.
"This thing could go right back up," said Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas in New York, suggesting prices could rebound once fighting erupts. "We're still vulnerable because inventories are tight."
When prices jumped in the weeks before the Gulf War, oil inventories already were high. That helped cushion the impact on prices, which jumped briefly to more than $40 a barrel and then declined rapidly when it became clear that the war would be settled quickly.
The biggest fear in the market is that oil facilities in other Middle Eastern countries, such as Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, could be attacked - a scenario that would cause oil prices to shoot higher very quickly, said Fadel Gheit, senior oil analyst at Fahnestock & Co. in New York.
Short of that happening, there is plenty of oil, Gheit said, and the recent price declines make clear that for the time being the "war premium" has disappeared. He said prices could drop an additional $5 a barrel in the coming days.
Energy experts say a glut could result if war in Iraq doesn't drag on and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein doesn't torch his oil fields or disrupt other Persian Gulf suppliers.
For now, the markets are betting those things won't happen and that the war will be a short one.
Associated Press Writer Brad Foss in New York contributed to this report.
Last modified: March 19. 2003 11:39AM
Summary
Plants grown in elevated CO2 environments typically exhibit increased rates of photosynthesis and biomass production. Most of the studies that have established this fact have historically utilized CO2 concentration increases on the order of 300 to 600 ppm. So what happens if the air's CO2 content is super-enriched, to a concentration on the order of 10,000 ppm? Is the effect of the extra CO2 still positive?
................Finally, in an important field study, Fernandez et al. (1998) investigated the effects of even higher CO2 concentrations (some as great as 35,000 ppm) on an herb and a tree growing in the vicinity of natural CO2 springs in Venezuela. These high CO2 concentrations stimulated the photosynthetic rates of both plants in all seasons of the year. In the dry season, this effect was particularly important; for plants exposed to elevated CO2 continued to maintain positive net photosynthetic rates, while those exposed to ambient air a few tens of meters away exhibited negative rates that, if prolonged, would be expected to lead to their eventual demise. The authors noted their work provides "a positive answer to the question of whether increases in carbon assimilation will be sustained throughout the growing season and over multiple seasons." It also demonstrated that high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, even as much as 100 times greater than the current global mean, were not detrimental to the plants investigated. Indeed, they helped them.................
Canada is a net exporter of oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, and hydropower. It is one of the most important sources of U.S. energy imports.
Note: Information contained in this report is the best available as of February 2001 and can change.
Canada currently has a bright economic outlook, with projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.2% in 2001. Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien won his re-election bid in November 2000, enlarging his party's majority in the parliament. Chretien plans to reduce taxes, which is expected to lead to increased consumer spending and business confidence. Unemployment is at historic lows.
english.pravda.ru 10:00 2003-03-19
From Canada to Chile, Governments along the Hemisphere isolated Bush bellicose approach to Iraq
After yesterday's speech, Bush found the strongest opposition to his plans for Middle East from his closer neighbors. The most relevant hemispheric governments said that they would not support US military adventure in Iraq and that they would have preferred a UN supported peaceful approach to this conflict.
The two Latin American non-permanent seats at the UN Security Council, Chile and Mexico, had anticipated their disagreement on Bush's yesterday's speech at the White House. Chile, in particular had made a proposal last week that could have avoided war in Middle East. However, its ideas were rudely rejected by the US administration before Bush's trip to the Azores' meeting.
President Ricardo Lagos maintains the faith on a peaceful resolution to the conflict, even at risk of breaking off the close commercial ties with USA, analysts say. According to local newspapers Lagos is on the phone at this moment trying to agree a common position with the other non-permanent seats at the Council.
Mexico, the main US trading partner holds a similar position than Chile. On a TV statement two hours after Bush's, President Vicente Fox made clear for the first time, country's approach to the Iraqi crisis. "We share the same values and objectives than USA, UK and Spain. However, we disagree with their procedures and timetables", said Fox. "Mexico insists on a peaceful multilateral way to resolve conflicts and regrets the road to war", concluded firmly the Mexican Head of State.
In turn, the former Mexico's Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda went further and said that thanks to Chile and Mexico, USA could not pass the so-called second resolution to allow the use of force against Iraq. "Without the strong Mexican and Chilean opposition they would have obtained the nine votes", said Castaneda.
Yesterday, the Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien said clearly and loudly: "Canada will play no role on the war against Iraq". Canada's Foreign Office had proposed a 30 days timetable to allow UN inspectors to disarm Saddam peacefully, but was ignored by its southern neighbor.
Mercosur countries also expressed their disagreement with the US administration bellicose position on Iraq and reiterated a strong support to Chile's position at the Security Council. Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva had anticipated last week a negative assertion on a military action in Middle East. Argentina, in turn, had clearly stated its pro-UN approach to the crisis one month ago and evacuated yesterday its 84 military officers in Kuwait. "We do not support any military action against Iraq", said Argentine Foreign Minister Carlos Ruckauf in response to a British enquiry submitted yesterday to Buenos Aires.
Those Latin American countries undoubtedly linked to Bush's administration, Colombia and Peru by case, opted to keep a low profile on this issue. Neither Lima nor Bogota have issued any formal statement until now.
There are many factors lying behind the Americas' objection to Bush. One of this is the strong Vatican opposition to the war. In a Catholic environment, Pope's active rejection on military plans to resolve the crisis had a very relevant influence on people and authorities' views. Also, the Americas have a long tradition of respectful policies towards the United Nations; the lack of interest shown by US diplomats on building up a consensus inside the organism could set a serious precedent looking forward incoming issues like Colombia and Venezuela.
Also, It should not be underestimated Spain's alignment to USA. The Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar is a kind of scarecrow for Latin Americans governments. Many consider him mere simple lobbyist behind Spanish largest corporations' interests in the region and are afraid of a broader alliance with Washington.
Economics reasons have to be taken into account, too. Dollar diplomacy did not work out this time. Perhaps, a strengthened Euro also played its role on this.
Hernan Etchaleco PRAVDA.Ru Argentina