Ref By Andrew Caffrey, Globe Staff, 3/27/2003

Regardless of what happens in Iraq, American drivers could see another bout of high pump prices    

Melrose MA - Lauren Rotondo stands next to her SUV's in her driveway in Melrose. Lauren and her husband own two SUV's and are still willing to pay the extra money to drive them, even though gas prices are increasing.

Political violence in Nigeria has cut production of high-grade crude oil used for gasoline in the United States by 40 percent, forcing refineries on the East Coast in particular to scramble for replacement stocks and bidding up prices in the process. Meantime, Venezuela's state-owned petroleum industry, which still hasn't fully recovered from the civil strife begun in December, is in such poor condition that some analysts warn it may see a drop in output.

These developments come when stocks in the United States are so low that the US Energy Information Administration yesterday said "it will likely take many more weeks, or months, before US petroleum inventories return to normal levels."

Despite a recent surge of imports, the agency said gasoline stocks are declining when suppliers should be reloading ahead of the peak summer driving season. Future prices for gasoline for April delivery rose 4 cents a gallon, or 4.44 percent, to 92.4 cents yesterday after the government released its report. And analysts say the system is so tightly stretched that even small, unanticipated developments could push prices up further.

"It doesn't look like we're going to have a lot of relief on the gasoline prices," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economics Research Inc., a Winchester consulting firm. "Right now, we're getting stung by yellow-jackets -- a lot of smaller things that are creating problems. When the market gets really tight, little operational problems that you wouldn't ordinarily notice make a really big difference."

Another looming worry: disquiet among oil workers that could lead to a strike in Colombia, which sends its crude to American states located on the Gulf of Mexico for refining. If Colombia "went down, clearly we would be looking at a very tight situation for the US Gulf for gasoline production," said David Fyfe, an oil analyst for the International Energy Agency in Paris.

The near-term global outlook for oil supply and prices continues to see-saw. Prices had plummeted to $26 a barrel, from $38, when it looked like the US-led military coalition was heading to swift victory in Iraq. That in turn had begun to pull down retail gasoline prices. But now oil prices have been creeping back up as those forces encounter stiffer resistance from Iraqi fighters, in addition to concerns about the situation in Nigeria. Yesterday, oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 66 cents, to $28.63 a barrel.

One big factor in the earlier drop is increased output from Saudi Arabia and other producers to keep spiraling prices from harming the US economy, and to compensate for lost Venezuelan and Iraqi suppliers. Indeed, some analysts are predicting that the Saudis and other producers may soon cut back output to prevent a glut that could collapse prices.

But the rosy macro outlook doesn't necessarily filter down equally to local energy markets.

Saudi Arabia's oil, for example, is high in sulphur, and so most of it is sent to refineries in the US Gulf region that are equipped to process it into gasoline. East Coast refineries, meantime, got about 26 percent of crude oil supplies from Nigeria and Venezuela last year, while Venezuela provided about 10 percent of the region's stocks of finished gasoline, leaving the region vulnerable to problems in those countries.

Venezuelan oil production has bounced backed markedly since the strikes petered out, with analysts saying oil production is now around 2.4 million barrels a day. But they add that it will be weeks before the state-owned petroleum company will be exporting gasoline from its refineries in significant amounts.

Moreover, the Venezuelan system is in poor shape after the strike, and even in the best of times production from existing wells declines so quickly that analysts say the system requires billions in ongoing investment.

But the Chavez government fired thousands of workers, including engineers it needs "to arrest oil field decline rates," said Fyfe of the International Energy Agency, and Venezuela faces such a cash crunch after the strike that yesterday President Hugo Chavez said the country needs to restructure its foreign debt.

"You are going to see a fall in production. The problem is, you don't know how much that's going to be," said David Voght, managing director of IPD Latin America, an energy consultancy in Caracas. Voght cautioned that the Venezuelan oil executives are "in an uphill battle and are going to encounter a lot of difficulties." A spokesman for Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the state oil company, didn't return messages seeking comment.

Meanwhile, the situation in Nigeria remains highly volatile since the violence that erupted in the Niger Delta March 12 prompted three major oil companies to shut or curtail facilities and evacuate workers, cutting the nation's oil output by 800,000 barrels a day. Yesterday ethnic Ijaw militants called for a cease-fire if the government and a rival tribe would agree to renegotiate political boundaries for national elections April 19. A spokesman for the rival warring tribe of Itsekiris seemed to reject the Ijaw call, according to wire service accounts.

Producers elsewhere in Nigeria are believed to be increasing output, which may partially offset current declines. But analysts said the intensity of the current fighting has them worried that the instability in the Niger Delta could last for months.

The war with Iraq is the wild card in all of this global turmoil. If the war does indeed go quickly, then crude prices could fall further, pulling down gasoline prices. Already the decline in crude prices from the March highs has been "so profound" that gas prices should be in the $1.50 to $1.60 a gallon range by summer, down from the $1.69 a gallon national average, Energy Security Analysis Inc., a Wakefield energy consultancy, said yesterday.

Another potential source of relief could come from additional exports from Europe, and from Asian producers drawn by higher prices in the United States. However, Fyfe of the International Energy Agency warns that US gas prices might not fall as much as oil prices if problems in Nigeria and Venezuela persist.

And if the war takes longer than expected, and the United States is not able to return idle Iraqi oilfields to production anytime soon, crude prices could continue marching back up.

"If crude stays high, and your gasoline develops this tightness, you can get gasoline bounce to over $2 a gallon quite quickly, and it might get worse from there," said Jan Stuart, who heads up research on global energy futures for investment bank ABN Amro Inc., in New York.

Andrew Caffrey can be reached at caffrey@globe.com.

<a href=www.voanews.com>VOA News 27 Mar 2003, 16:25 UTC

The Venezuelan government has granted strike leader Carlos Ortega's request to seek asylum in Costa Rica.

Costa Rican ambassador Ricardo Lizano said Wednesday he received an order of safe conduct for Mr. Ortega to travel to Costa Rica. He said the Costa Rican government will not release details of Mr. Ortega's departure.

Mr. Ortega has been awaiting Venezuela's decision on the matter for nearly two weeks, after taking refuge at the Costa Rican embassy in Caracas.

Costa Rica immediately approved his asylum request for "humanitarian reasons."

Mr. Ortega went into hiding last month after the Venezuelan government ordered his arrest on treason and rebellion charges related to a massive strike. The two-month walk-out, which crippled the country's key oil industry, was aimed at ousting President Hugo Chavez.

Mr. Ortega is president of the Venezuela's biggest labor group, the Confederation of Trade Unions.Another strike leader, Carlos Fernandez, is facing charges of treason and other crimes related to the protest. A Venezuelan judge last week ordered police to release Mr. Fernandez from house arrest.

<a href=www.businesswire.com>Business Editors

    NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 27, 2003--Fitch Ratings affirms the 'BBB' rating on the Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority's (WAPA) $100,000,000 electric system revenue bonds. The Rating Outlook is Stable. The affirmation is in anticipation of WAPA's $70 million bond issuance expected to price in April 2003. Proceeds will be used to fund certain capital improvements including upgrades to the transmission and distribution system, adding new generating capacity on St. Thomas and St. Croix, and paying down lines of credit. Public Financial Management is the financial adviser and Salomon Smith Barney is senior manager.     The rating affirmation reflects WAPA's historically good financial performance, adequate liquidity, a favorable fuel contract, improving system reliability, and stable economic growth, which is tied to the US Virgin Island's (the Island) tourist economy. Despite initial concerns stemming from the events of Sept. 11, 2001, the Island's tourism business continues to grow. Another positive factor is WAPA's good relationship with the Virgin Islands Public Service Commission (PSC), evidenced by the PSC's recent approval of WAPA's rate case effective April 1, 2003. The order includes the approval of WAPA's upcoming debt issuance, a rate increase that allows management to maintain annual debt service coverage above 1.75 times (x), a surcharge for payments in lieu of taxes, and other reclassifications of charges.     Financial results for fiscal year 2002 were stable with debt service coverage at a solid 1.86x. Adequate liquidity in the event of short-term financial disruptions is provided by about $18 million cash reserves, FEMA reimbursements, and self insurance funds. Additional liquidity of about $18 million will be available in the form of lines of credit with two local banks after the WAPA's planned financing.     Credit risks center on WAPA's accounts receivables associated with the government's delinquent payments, a dependence on a single fuel (oil) for generation, the economy's reliance on tourism, and the potential for future hurricane damage. While there has been significant improvement in reducing the United States Virgin Island government's (USVI) delinquent payments to WAPA, this issue remains a concern. The USVI's delinquent bills are about $7 million of WAPA's electric system accounts receivables (6% of revenues), an improvement from a high of about $14 million in 1999.     The 'BBB' rating also takes into account current world events that could adversely affect air travel to the USVI, and fuel supply to the Island. Through a favorable contract that extends to 2022, WAPA purchases its fuel oil from HOVENSA (formerly Hess Oil Virgin Islands Corp. prior to entering into a joint venture with Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. of Venezuela) which operates the Western hemisphere's largest petroleum refinery on the island of St. Croix. HOVENSA receives crude oil from various locations, but primarily Venezuela. In the event that HOVENSA loses its Venezuelan supply (which was sharply reduced earlier this year) and reduces production, they remain obligated to serve WAPA first. In the unlikely event that HOVENSA were to stop production, WAPA would purchase oil from the world markets. Fitch believes that WAPA has an adequate risk management program including an emergency response program that addresses this issue.     While hurricanes and the resultant damage remains a risk, system replacements and improvements over the past several years have significantly strengthened the system's infrastructure. In addition, access to financial assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) continues to provide bondholders with credit support in the event of future hurricanes, as does a long-term hazard mitigation program that reimburses 50-90% of eligible costs related to projects designed to mitigate future storm damage.     WAPA is virtually the sole electricity provider for the US Virgin Islands. WAPA's power system serves approximately 50,000 customers with sales consisting of 33% residential, 20% commercial, 43% industrial, and 4% other. The system is governed by a 9-member board and operates autonomously from the Virgin Islands Government.

--30--IK/sf*

CONTACT: Fitch Ratings, New York
         Karl Pfeil, III 212/908-0516  
         Alan Spen, 212/908-0594
         Media Relations: 
         James Jockle, 212/908-0547

KEYWORD: NEW YORK INTERNATIONAL LATIN AMERICA
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: BANKING BOND/STOCK RATINGS
SOURCE: Fitch Ratings

<a href=www.middle-east-online.com>Full Story By Robert Koch - VIENNA

The Organisation of Petrolium Exporting Countries could move rapidly to reduce production of crude if the price falls below 22 dollars (20.50 euros) a barrel, a source close to the organisation said here on Thursday, on condition of anonymity.

"If the price of a barrel drops under 22 dollars, below the price band, the ministers will not wait until their next meeting in Doha for considering a reduction of production," the source said.

"Despite the ongoing war in Iraq, we feel there is enough oil on the market. We even feel there might be too much."

Oil producers feared the arrival of warmer weather in the northern hemisphere could lead to over-supply and hit prices, the source added.

"With the summer season, we fear that demand will drop. Prices might rebound - it will largely depend on the ongoing military operations in Iraq."

The comments came one week after OPEC Secretary General Alvaro Silva Calderon reiterated the cartel's pledge to make good any oil shortage arising from the Iraq conflict, if necessary by increasing production.

Calderon said OPEC was facing an "emergency situation, and for that reason we have to use spare capacity if it is necessary".

The price of reference Brent North Sea crude oil for May delivery rose 1.1 dollars per barrel to 26.38 dollars in early deals Thursday.

OPEC's stated target is to maintain oil prices within a range of 22-28 dollars a barrel.

The source said oil investors are keeping a close watch on developments in Nigeria, where ethnic tension has for 10 days been threatening the oil industry of the biggest African producer.

More than 800,000 barrels has been slashed from Nigeria's daily oil production, more than a third of its exports, in the two weeks since an uprising by the Ijaw ethnic group triggered bloody clashes in the Niger Delta.

Nigeria is the world's sixth largest exporter of crude oil, with an OPEC quota of 2,018 million bpd.

The source admitted that "some people" had thought of using oil as a "weapon" in solidarity with Iraq, but he said this would not happen.

"Some people have raised this possibility," he said, "but if this weapon were to be used, for example as a boycott of the United States or Britain, it could backfire on those using it" by destabilising the market.

Iraq's ambassador to Venezuela, Taha El Abassi, on Wednesday called on oil producing countries to stop exporting to the United States and Britain, but many of the countries are unlikely to heed the call as they are US allies in the war.

Before the war began last Thursday Iraq was allowed to export two million barrels of oil per day under the oil-for-food agreement it has with the United Nations, but this deal was suspended on March 18.

OPEC has scheduled an extraordinary ministerial meeting in Doha, Qatar on June 11.

<a href=www.sfgate.com>More Thursday, March 27, 2003
(03-27) 07:23 PST CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) --

Venezuela won't stop paying its foreign debt obligations despite a severe cash crunch stemming from a crippling two-month strike, the finance ministry said.

"Venezuela completely dismisses the possibility of moratorium, halt of payments or forced restructuring of public foreign debt," the ministry said in a statement released late Wednesday.

The statement came after President Hugo Chavez announced in a speech to business owners that Venezuela may have to restructure its foreign debt. Chavez did not provide details.

The Finance Ministry said Venezuela planned to propose a voluntary bond swap, among other measures, to deal with the cash crunch. Venezuela's foreign debt amounts to about $23 billion, or 37 percent of its $63 billion economy. The country faces $5 billion in debt payments this year.

Last week, the government swapped maturing local debt worth more than 160 billion bolivars ($100 million) for new bonds with terms of up to two-and-a-half years. Since last year, the government has extended maturities on 3.8 trillion bolivars ($2.4 billion) in local debt, the finance ministry said.

The South American country lost $6 billion during a strike to force Chavez's resignation or early elections. The walkout hobbled the world's fifth-largest oil exporting industry and source of half of public revenue for Venezuela. Tax collection, the source of most of the rest of government income, also fell as thousands of businesses and the stock market closed.

The strike fizzled last month with Chavez solidly in power.

Ali Rodriguez, president of the government oil monopoly, said Thursday oil production reached 3.1 million barrels a day. Exports are 2.8 million barrels a day, Rodriguez told state news agency Venpres. Executives fired from Petroleos de Venezuela SA for leading the strike say output is 2.4 million barrels a day.

Private economists predict gross domestic product could shrink more than 20 percent this year. GDP contracted 9 percent in 2002.