Alertas de Robert Alonso Robert Alonso

Por allá por 1860, un buen hombre llamado Frederick Guthier logró sintetizar etileno con S2Cl2 dándole vida a lo que pasó a la historia con el nombre de “gas mostaza”.  En la noche del 12 para el 13 de julio de 1917, fue empleado por primera vez como arma bélica en el frente de batalla cerca de Ypres, en Flandes, (Bélgica) y de ahí en adelante ha sido muy popular en conflictos como en el de Etiopía del año 35, la II Guerra Mundial, la guerra Irán-Irak entre 1984 y 1988, entre otros.

Cuando es puro, el “gas mostaza” no es gas sino un líquido incoloro e inodoro. Sin embargo, debido a impurezas, normalmente posee un color que va desde el amarillo hasta el ámbar oscuro, con un suave olor que ha sido descrito como de mostaza, ajo, rábano o heno recién cortado. Es un fuerte agente irritante.

La exposición al gas mostaza provoca enrojecimiento de la piel con aparición de ampollas e inflamación, especialmente en áreas donde las glándulas sudoríparas se encuentran en mayor número. Si es inalado, también puede causar quemaduras y ampollas en los tejidos pulmonares, causando una serie de síntomas a corto y largo plazo, que provocan invalidez crónica y en el peor de los casos, la muerte. A altas concentraciones o exposición prolongada, ataca las córneas de la víctima, dejándola prácticamente ciega. Actualmente, ha sido también calificado como agente cancerígeno.

Los síntomas suelen aparecer al cabo de 4-24 horas después de la exposición. Los efectos a largo plazo incluyen hipersensibilidad, fatiga pulmonar y tos crónica, dolor de pecho, cáncer de boca, garganta, tracto respiratorio y piel. También ha sido relacionado como causante de leucemia y defectos en fetos.

Saddam Husseín -- el “amigo del alma” del Sr. Chávez -- empleó el letal gas en contra de su propia gente, para arrasar con parte de la población kurda iraquí. Se desconoce el número exacto de kurdos muertos mediante los ataques de Husseín, pero hay quienes aseguran que fueron varios miles lo hombres, mujeres, niños y ancianos – TODOS CIVILES – quienes sufrieron una horrenda muerte debido a los ataques que este monstruo oriental llevó a cabo contra parte de su pueblo.

Nadie levantó su voz para protestar en contra de esas muertes.  No hubo cantantes alguno que le compusiera una canción de protesta ni se desnudó un solo hippie en Europa ni en ninguna parte del mundo.   Jamás se llevó a cabo manifestación callejera ni en las ventanas de los Mc Donald’s se pintaron graffities.

Digo esto para que vayamos tomando nota. 

Robert Alonso

El Hatillo 30 de marzo de 2003 robertalonso2003@cantv.net

The Venezuelan News Service | Mar 30 2003 05:19:30 GMT By J.M. Barrionuevo

Venezuelan bonds plummeted on Mr. Chávez’s comment on the need to restructure external debt this year. The Ministry of Finance immediately denied that an external debt restructuring or default was in the offing. We consider Mr. Chávez’s announcement as premature, but it does indicate that, given Mr. Chávez’s sharp political orientation, the time when foreign investors will be made “responsible” for the Venezuelan economic debacle is nearing.

The economic devastation, inflation, unemployment and devaluation that the people face today are usually only experienced by countries waging war. When there is no one left to blame and default ensues, Mr. Chávez will step down, ending one of the greatest wars that any man has waged against himself, as the culprit of corruption, economic collapse, and extreme poverty. More.. Hugo Chavez continues to foster terrorism

Editorial by Aleksander Boyd

A couple of days ago and article published in "El Nacional" exposed the views of Gen. Efraín Vásquez Velazco about the situation with bordering Colombia. Disagreeing with the president and government officials statistics, Gen Vásquez Velazco denied the existence of a 20.000 strong Venezuelan force in the frontier. Furthermore, he said "we have never had 20.000 men there, we have had at the most 6.000". His declarations came as no surprise for international analysts whom are convinced that the Venezuelan state is not only offering a haven of tranquility for guerrilla groups running away from the eventual attack of the Colombia army, Chavez's government is also engaged in protecting and supporting them whilst they are in Venezuelan territory.

One of the main leaders of the FARC had surgery in a clinic located in Venezuelan Tachira state near the border only two weeks ago. According to local sources, the bill was paid by the Governor of the state using funds of a lottery company named Kino Tachira. Gen. Vásquez Velazco whilst in charge of the frontier's garrison, reported all sorts of irregularities to army chief Lucas Rincon and former Minister of Defence Jose Vicente Rangel. On the occasion of the launch of the US & Colombia joint operation "Plan Colombia", he passed documents to Gen. Lucas Rincon relating guerrilla cells using Venezuelan territory (Sierra de Perija) to escape attacks from para-military groups and Colombian army. These reports were treated as diplomatic matters by the Venezuelan admin rather than as military issues and no further action was ordered by the president.

Military intelligence has reported to the central government the creation of a para-military group called "Frente Bolivariano de Liberacion" (Bolivarian Liberation Front). This group is operating in Venezuelan territory with the leniency of the army. Arguably, they are engaged in extortion and kidnappings in areas near the border, providing detailed information to the guerrillas about wealthy individuals to be targeted for extortion. Vcrisis sources report an individual by the name of Orlando Mancilla acting as the leader and liaison agent between the Bolivarian Front and the guerrillas in Buena Vista and Alto Grande. Inhabitants of these areas feel completely hopeless for they have informed such actions to the local authorities and the army with no results. Colombian groups are moving so freely in Venezuelan territory that cases of extortion and kidnaps have been reported in the central states of Aragua, Guarico, Cojedes only three hour drive from Caracas.

The funds for the maintenance and operation of the troops in the border have been misused in the implementation of the "Plan Republica", which constitutes one of the most resounding cases of corruption and misappropriation that Hugo Chavez's regime has had. The president is not interested in the slightest in eradicating the ever increasing presence of the Colombian guerrilla in Venezuela. He would not refer to them as terrorists, although he rapidly brands his political opponents as such.

By Geir Moulson ASSOCIATED PRESS 3:03 p.m., March 29, 2003

BERLIN – Anti-war demonstrators turned out in the thousands Saturday from South Korea to Chile, spattering streets with paint, jeering outside U.S. embassies and in one case forming a 31-mile human chain.

More than 100,000 people protested in strongly anti-war Germany, half of them at a rally in Berlin, where banners read "Stop America's Terror." About 30,000 people held hands along the 31 miles between the northwestern cities of Muenster and Osnabrueck – a route used by negotiators who brought the Thirty Years War to an end in 1648.   Hundreds of women, some carrying placards declaring "the United States and Britain are the axis of evil," protested in San'a, Yemen. Elsewhere in the Arab world, 10,000 turned out at a rally organized by Egypt's ruling party in Port Said, and in Amman, Jordan, more than 3,000 people demanded that the kingdom expel U.S. troops.

In Stuttgart, Germany, about 6,000 protesters encircled the U.S. military's European Command, releasing blue balloons adorned with white doves as they joined hands to form a chain.

Farther north, police detained 100 demonstrators at a sit-in outside Rhine-Main Air Base near Frankfurt, a key transit point for U.S. military traffic to the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan.

Protesters in Rome hung black mourning banners from the city's bridges. At Vicenza, in northeastern Italy, demonstrators threw red paint and flares at the walls of a U.S. military base where hundreds of paratroopers now in northern Iraq had been based.

In Athens, Greece, 15,000 people chanting "We'll stop the war" marched to the U.S. Embassy. Protesters splashed red paint on the road outside the building and on the windows of a McDonald's restaurant.

Thousands in Canada and the United States rallied in support of the war.

About 4,000 Canadians angered by Prime Minister Jean Chretien's decision not to support a war without United Nations approval marched in front of the Parliament building in Ottawa, waving flags of the U.S. and allies Britain and Australia.

In the United States, up to 12,000 flag-waving war supporters packed the steps of the Pennsylvania Capitol in Harrisburg. A rally in Cape Cod, Mass., supporting U.S. troops drew about 2,000 and in Miami, thousands of Cuban exiles and others marched to support the military and to oppose opening relations with communist Cuba.

In New York City, several hundred staged a Times Square anti-war rally while throwing in a wide array of other causes – from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to abortion rights.

Barbed-wire roadblocks and riot police kept thousands of Bangladeshi protesters away from the U.S. Embassy in Dhaka. The demonstrators burned a U.S. flag and an effigy of President Bush.

Police in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, used tear gas to break up a protest outside the Australian Embassy, whose country has about 2,000 soldiers in the coalition.

Students in South Korea's capital, Seoul, scuffled with riot police as thousands marched down half of an eight-lane boulevard chanting "Stop the bombing! Stop the killing!"

The mood was more subdued in Britain, where public sentiment had been strongly against the government's participation in the U.S.-led coalition before the outbreak of fighting but appears to be swinging. A MORI poll released Friday put Prime Minister Tony Blair's popularity rating at its highest level in nine months.

Turnout out at a series of British rallies was a tiny fraction of protests before the war. Still, activists vowed to keep marching to demand Blair pull British troops out of Iraq.

"We didn't stop the war starting, but we can still stop its progress. I think this is going to become the next Vietnam," said Rebecca Mordan, 26, an actress who took part in a rally of about 100 people in London.

Poland, which committed up to 200 soldiers to the war, saw its largest demonstration yet. Two thousand mostly young people marched to the U.S. Embassy in Warsaw, banging drums and chanting "No blood for oil." They called President Aleksander Kwasniewski and Prime Minister Leszek Miller "Bush's two dogs."

In Hungary, another nation whose government has supported the war, about 2,000 people whistled and jeered as they marched past the U.S. and British embassies in Budapest on their way to parliament.

A crowd estimated at 6,000 people demonstrated in front of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.

More than 10,000 people marched in Paris, watched by 5,000 police. The demonstration turned violent when about 20 youths attacked a couple angry about protesters carrying posters of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Both were treated for bruises by rescue workers.

Around 8,000 people marched in Dublin to criticize the Irish government's decision to let U.S. forces bound for Iraq use the country's Shannon Airport for refueling and stopovers.

In Santiago, Chile, more than 3,000 people staged a peaceful march, and in Caracas, Venezuela, about 100 people called for an end to the war.

"The war is illegal," said Jose Luis Lucena, 24, a student in Caracas. "Those wretched gringos decided to leapfrog the U.N.'s authority. The world told them no and they didn't listen. I hope they pay dearly."

<a href=www.nytimes.com>Web MARKET INSIGHT By KENNETH N. GILPIN

OIL prices have fluctuated wildly in recent weeks. They bumped up against $40 a barrel on Feb. 27 but now stand at around $30.

Frederick P. Leuffer, senior energy analyst at Bear Stearns, talked last week about the effects of the Iraq war on oil supplies and the direction of oil prices — as well as the implications for big international oil companies. Following are excerpts from the conversation:

Q. In the last 12 months, there have been major oil supply disruptions in Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria. How does the current situation compare with that of the Persian Gulf war?

A. There are a lot of differences between now and 1990-1991, but there are a lot of similarities. In 1991, we lost up to 5 million barrels a day from Iraq and Kuwait combined. Iraqi production now is about 2.3 million to 2.5 million barrels. Before the strike, Venezuelan production peaked at about 3 million barrels. Now, they are back up to just over 2.4 million. And the drain from Nigeria is about 800,000. But not everybody has been out at the same time.

Q. Based on what we know now about conditions in Iraqi oil fields, how high could production go after the war?

A. If the war goes well and the northern fields, which represent about half their production, are not damaged, it is conceivable you could see Iraq producing 2.5 million to 3 million barrels a day within a month after the end of the war.

Q. Will falling oil prices be enough to increase global demand for oil?

A. We are estimating world demand growth at 2 percent this year, but only because we expect crude oil prices to fall sharply. If oil prices are sticky in the high $20-a-barrel range or low $30's, I expect the economy will not do so well, and that demand will be tempered.

Q. Do you expect gasoline prices to rise more this summer?

A. I think gasoline prices are likely to be pretty high, but maybe not as high as they are right now. There is sufficient gasoline-making capacity, and unless there is an unexpected event at refineries, we won't see shortages, and prices will come off current levels.

Q. How have big oil companies reacted to developments over the past year?

A. Exploration budgets haven't moved up very much, which may show better discipline on the part of the companies. Skepticism is very high that spot oil prices will be $25 a barrel, let alone $35 or $40. They tend to base their exploration budgets on prices of around $18 a barrel. And they are using this windfall as an opportunity to pay down debt.

Q. Why haven't shares of big oil companies performed well in recent months?

A. Ever since oil went through $25 a barrel midway through last year, oil stocks have underperformed the market. But the Standard & Poor's integrated oil index is yielding about 3 percent right now, which suggests there is probably not a lot of downside risk in the stocks. But I think they will be left behind in a rising stock market, which in part will be driven higher by a drop in oil prices. That is what happened in 1991.

Back then, the Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 26 percent for the full year. The S.& P. oil composite index was up only 4 percent. The groups that will do well in the next rally will be the heavy users of oil, not the companies that produce it.

Q. Is there a case to be made for holding oil company shares in a diversified portfolio?

A. There is something to be said for holding some oil shares all the time. Over the last 20 years, Royal Dutch/Shell and Exxon Mobil have outperformed the S.& P. 500, so a buy-and-hold strategy for high-quality companies has rewarded investors.

Q. Even though you expect oil prices to fall sharply, there are still a couple of stocks that you like. Could you talk about them?

A. BP is my top pick right now. It is yielding close to 4 percent, they have raised the dividend three times in the last year and they are in the midst of a $2 billion share repurchase program. Also, they will grow oil and gas production between 4 percent and 5 percent a year over the next five years. I don't expect a lot of downside risk.

Royal Dutch/Shell is much the same story, but with a bit higher dividend yield. The stock took a hit when it was taken out of the S.& P. 500 index as part of a decision to eliminate foreign stocks. But we see decent growth for this company, and I would expect they will continue to raise the dividend. For the last 14 years, they have increased dividend payouts twice a year.

We also like ChevronTexaco. The stock has been under a lot of pressure because it has posted disappointing earnings in three of the last four quarters. But statistically it is very, very cheap. If they can get more aggressive on cost cutting, the stock is undervalued.