Alertas de Robert Alonso Robert Alonso

Entre ayer y hoy se me reventaron todos los buzones de correo electrónico que empleo para enviar mis "alertas". ¡y son más de 50! Jamás me hubiera podido imaginar recibir tal avalancha de cartas, notas y escritos "asesorándome" sobre cómo defender nuestra constitución. No pudiera publicarlo todo pues son tan variadas las sugerencias que me llevaría una vida enviarlas por la red.

Sin embargo, de entre todas ellas - muchas verdaderamente ingeniosas - me llamó la atención una enviada por una alta ejecutiva de una de las agencias de publicidad más prestigiosas del mundo (empresa a la cual le debo mucho), cuyo nombre me reservo para no meterla en el mismo lote mío y obligarla a "atrincherarse" sabrá-Dios-dónde. Vamos a llamarla, cariñosamente, "Nare"

"Nare" literalmente me escribió: "No sé si esto sirve para defender la constitución, pero por lo menos es válido para retar y poner contra la pared a los militares."

"Alguien con credibilidad y que se reconozca por su compromiso e interés por el bienestar de Venezuela -- que no debería ser la Coordinadora, por cierto -- debe convocar a TODOS LOS VENEZOLANOS, de TODAS LAS CIUDADES DEL PAÍS, a que marchemos hacia los cuarteles, los destacamentos... los sitios donde están los militares, donde nos instalaríamos, días, noches con consignas, con carteles, pancartas... que les recuerden a los militares el mandato que les da NUESTRA constitución. No nos moveríamos de allí hasta que nos maten o hasta que caiga el régimen."

Por supuesto que esto no sería para YA - diría yo. Pienso que sería una salida PACÍFICA -- no necesariamente traumática -- para ser aplicada en el supuesto caso que éste o cualquier otro régimen que tuviéramos en el futuro, se salga de la ley, haciendo "cosas" como que al presidente - por ejemplo - se le ocurriese meterle mano al FIEM. o, qué se yo, "pasar" una ley de control de cambio sin contar con la Asamblea Nacional. diría yo; o meter preso a un general contrariando sus derechos procesales y constitucionales o -- yendo más allá en mi imaginación hipotética -- firmar un contrato petrolero con algún país hermano sin que lo apruebe el poder legislativo o algo así tan estrambótico como recibir dinero de una entidad bancaria extranjera para financiar una campaña electoral, etc.

El problema que yo veo en esta propuesta de mi gran amiga "Nare", es que tendríamos que estar dispuestos a ciertos sacrificios, no digamos INMOLARNOS COMO LOS ÁRABES, pero pasar un poco de hambre, hacer las necesidades en un tobo por ahí, metidos en una carpa o detrás de un palo, llevar sol (lluvia no, porque estamos en época de sequía), sereno. etc. Otro gran inconveniente sería que no podríamos abrir nuestras panaderías, nuestros supermercados, nuestros restaurantes, pues tendríamos que estar TODOS sentados frente a los cuarteles. Sin embargo, el mayor problema que le veo es que tendríamos que salir TODOS, TODOS, TODOS, TODOS, TODOS, TODOS, a la vez y en TODAS, TODAS, TODAS, TODAS, TODAS las ciudades de Venezuela.

Ahora bien. Si pudiéramos hacerlo - en el supuesto negado, claro, que algún gobierno venezolano se salga de la raya - sería muy factible el éxito pues generaría ese caos que hace falta para que los militares se definan si son mariscos o moluscos. (OJO: DIJE MARISCOS, no lo otro).

No creo que tengamos que estar sentados mucho tiempo, si las cosas se hiciesen como aquí decimos. En todo caso, sería INMENSAMENTE mejor que sentarnos en los bancos de un parque en Australia a explicarles a nuestros nietos dónde carajo queda Venezuela. o vivir toda la vida obligando a nuestros hijos que no hablen entre ellos en otro idioma que no sea el español, o que tengamos que hacer colas todos los días hasta el 2021 (y más allá) para comprar media libra de patas de pollo con pellejo para echársela a la sopa de desesperanza que tomaremos en desgano de aquí al día en que nos entierren -- luego de morir de indignación -- en un hueco común y "solidario" de un cementerio zamorano recién abierto en los Valles del Curucutú, donde los pájaros ni cantan.

Si le preguntásemos a los millones de cubanos que tuvimos que salir al destierro o a los que infaustamente tuvieron que anclarse en la Cuba de Fidel, si hubieran cambiado todo el horror por un año de sacrificio sentados frente a los cuarteles revolucionarios del entonces incipiente régimen CASTRO-COMUNISTA de Cuba, el 99.9% de los encuestados estaría más que de acuerdo con la idea. Muchos, incluso, darían la vida por echar para atrás la película y defender la patria como hoy lo propone mi amiga "Nare".

Lo malo es que no lo hagamos y ya viejos y derrotados - muriéndonos de tristeza en los confines del tiempo -- nos digamos unos a los otros: "¡Si tan solo lo hubiéramos hecho a tiempo.!"

El Hatillo 20 de Marzo de 2003

Robert Alonso robertalonso2003@cantv.net

washingtontimes.com By Patrice Hill THE WASHINGTON TIMES

     The Federal Reserve, against a backdrop of plunging oil prices, was guardedly optimistic yesterday that the clouds cast over the economy by near-record oil prices and the Iraq crisis will soon lift.      After a daylong meeting of its rate-setting committee, the central bank said it had "heightened surveillance" to gauge the economy's response to the sudden drop in oil prices and other developments precipitated by the Bush administration's move toward war.      "The hesitancy of the economic expansion appears to owe importantly to oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical uncertainties," the committee said in a statement. "As those uncertainties lift," the economic climate should improve, it added.      The sharp rise in stock prices and unexpectedly big drop in oil rates this week to under $32 a barrel in New York trading appeared to vindicate Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's prediction of a quick economic rebound once a decision is made on Iraq.      But the Fed yesterday was careful to add that it cannot predict the course of the war and, thus, its lasting effect on the economy, and that the reserve is poised to respond whichever way the situation goes. The Fed did not act on interest rates.      A good part of the "war premium" on oil prices referred to by the Fed, which drove prices close to $40 late last month, evaporated in the past two days on hopes that the war will go according to Bush administration plans and end quickly. Yesterday, prices plummeted more than 9 percent to $31.67 in New York trading.      The drop did not occur in time to prevent gasoline prices at the pump from hitting a record high last week, however. The shock from high gas prices and home-heating bills is one of the biggest threats that economists say could trip the weak economy back into recession.      The run-up in energy prices this year "has been at least comparable — and perhaps larger than — the spike that preceded the 1990-1991 Gulf war" and recession, said Mickey D. Levy, chief economist with Banc of America Securities.      Mr. Levy noted that the jump in energy prices for consumers has been almost identical to the rise that helped push the economy into recession in 2001, and that the drop in oil prices this week did not come a moment too soon.      But he expects energy prices to remain elevated and pose difficulties for the economy, even if the war in Iraq goes smoothly.      "[Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] quota reductions in early 2002 and the persistent disruption of Venezuela's oil production have been key influences that are not likely to quickly reverse even with the discharge of some of the Gulf tensions," he said.      Gasoline prices may be slow to respond to the plunge in oil prices this week, because stocks are near their lowest levels in three decades.      The available oil has been diverted more into production of home-heating fuel than has been customary owing to the severely cold winter, reducing the oil available to build gasoline stocks for the summer driving season, Mr. Levy said.      While high energy prices have been cutting into consumers' purchasing power, they also have had a marked effect on consumer psychology. Consumer confidence is at the lowest level in a decade.      A survey released yesterday by the NPD research group found that nearly half of consumers plan to cut their discretionary spending because of high gas prices.      That is more than twice the number that said they would trim spending and family outings because of fears about war or terrorism, the group said.      "Not only are people cutting back on big-ticket items, but they are also spending less on relatively inexpensive entertainment activities like dining out," said Jon Swallen, senior vice president at Universal McCann, a private research group that recently documented a drop in consumer buying plans.      Travel spending is taking a disproportionate hit, he said, with a third of consumers saying now is a bad time to fly or take a vacation trip.      Spending has been the engine of the economic recovery in the past year, and any big pullback by consumers in response to high energy prices or war in Iraq threatens economic growth, analysts say.      One war-related problem that developed during the Gulf war was the so-called "CNN effect," as consumers stayed home and watched the Iraq developments unfold on the 24-hour cable television network. That resulted in a big drop in consumer spending that drove the economy closer to recession.      That is why the Fed is following closely reactions to developments in the Middle East, and is prepared to cut interest rates immediately, if necessary, to provide another prop for consumers, said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisers.

www.belleville.com Posted on Wed, Mar. 19, 2003 CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela - Jewelry, crystals and gold-encrusted statues normally fill Luis Pereida's gift shop in downtown Caracas. But his suppliers haven't brought him a shipment in three months, and the store's stock is dwindling.

The problem is a package of currency controls that President Hugo Chavez imposed on Jan. 21 to try to stop the free fall of Venezuela's bolivar. The rules restrict buying of dollars - and without dollars, the distributors who supply Pereida can't buy goods from abroad.

The shortage of greenbacks is beginning to hit business owners hard, and Pereida, for one, is worried.

"If this situation continues, I'll have to close my store," he said.

To try to cushion the blow for importers, the government exchange controls committee, or Cadivi, has declared some 6,000 goods essential - including some food products, medicines, personal hygiene items and industrial raw materials.

Importers of those goods, under the new regulations, will eventually be granted dollars. But as a result of delays in implementing the new system, not one dollar has been granted during the last 57 days.

The delay, coupled with restrictions on imported "luxury" goods like electronic entertainment equipment and jewelry, have many shop owners anxious and confused.

Some are buying dollars on the black market. The bolivar is set at a fixed rate of 1,598 to one dollar but it trades as high as 2,800 to the dollar on the black market.

Eduardo Gines, who owns an electronics store, said his suppliers are either selling inventories or buying black market dollars "because there is no other alternative."

The president of the currency committee, Edgar Hernandez, said Monday the government would begin granting dollars this week.

"We are doing the job as fast as possible," he said.

The currency control committee is supposed to sell $650 million this month, but economic analysts say only a fraction of it will go to the private sector for imports.

"This isn't enough," said Jose Pineda, chief economist at the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce and Industry, or VenAmCham. Importers need at least $800 million month, he said.

Pineda said the only the government is currently importing goods. In order to combat food shortages caused by the lack of available dollars, Chavez's government is importing food and using the military to distribute and sell it at markets for the poor.

Pineda estimates the government could use $400 million of the $650 million Cadavi is slated to grant in March, leaving the rest for importers, students studying abroad and people on business trips.

Imports averaged a bit more than $1 billion a month last year and are expected to fall by roughly half that amount because of the new rules.

Opposition leaders are demanding Chavez agree to early elections, blaming his left-leaning policies for the country's deepening economic crisis.

Chavez blames the economic downturn on his adversaries, who staged a two-month general strike this winter aimed at ousting him. The strike crippled markets, and the bolivar lost a quarter of its value before currency sales were halted.

The former paratrooper, who was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000, accuses opponents of leading "an economic coup" to remove him from office. He was briefly overthrown in April, but returned to power two days later.

Amid the turmoil, Fedecamaras, the nation's leading business chamber, said Monday that at least 30,000 businesses could go bankrupt this year.

Venezuela's economy contracted almost 9 percent in 2002, and Fedecamaras predicted that it will shrink another 17 to 36 percent in 2003.

On the Web Venezuelan Currency Administration Committee: www.cadivi.gov.ve

www.thestar.com Mar. 19, 2003. 07:56 AM STEVEN THEOBALD BUSINESS REPORTER

The expectation of a quick and clean victory following a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq prompted crude oil prices to fall 9.3 per cent to $31.67 (U.S.) per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

That capped a 16 per cent decline in the past four trading days.

Assuming all goes well on the battlefield, traders are expecting crude prices to reach about $25 per barrel by mid-April, said Brian Prokop, an analyst with Calgary-based oil & gas investment dealer Peters & Co.

The market simply is starting to extract the war premium built into oil prices, he said.

"These are stupidly high prices," Prokop said. "We had $26 oil in September of last year then Bush started saying, `We are going into Iraq,' then boom."

Following the 1991 Gulf War, oil prices plunged after hitting highs above $40 a barrel.

Things are a bit more complicated this time around, Prokop said.

In particular, OPEC countries already are running at ramped-up levels, leaving far less spare production capacity to meet any possible shortfalls.

As well, inventory levels are low and Venezuela is still struggling to regain its pre-strike output of 3 million barrels a day, Prokop said.

"You have a couple of more wrinkles that are arguably bullish for oil prices."

Stock markets took a breather yesterday after posting big gains Monday, as all major North American indices gained about half a percentage point.

"The market is having a reality check," Peter Cardillo, chief strategist at Global Partners Securities Inc., told Reuters.

"We have come up sharply on the pretense that we will have a short war but we are not engaged in war just yet. Once the bombs start to fall, the progress of the war will be noted."

While uncertainty over Iraq has been lifted, the outlook on interest rates got a whole lot fuzzier yesterday.

Following its scheduled policy meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve left its trend-setting interest rates unchanged, as expected. The surprise came in the Fed's accompanying statement.

The Federal Open Market Committee refused to provide an assessment of the risks the U.S. economy faces.

Given geopolitical unknowns, "the committee does not believe it can usefully characterize the current balance of risks with respect to the prospects for its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth," the statement read.

"It's striking," said Marc Lévesque, senior economist at the Toronto Dominion Bank. "It says basically they don't have a clue."

Stock market investors also would be wise to realize that the future is uncertain, suggested Roger Mortimer, a portfolio manager with San Francisco-based AIM Funds Management Inc.

The overthrow of Saddam Hussein won't solve all the U.S. economy's underlying problems, Mortimer added.

"There has been the tendency to associate Iraq with any number of ills affecting the U.S. economy."

Following the 1991 Gulf War, stock markets soared as much as 30 per cent over the year.

But this time around, corporate earnings for the first quarter of 2003 are expected to be quite weak, Mortimer warned.

"If the markets are feeling optimistic and the Iraq situation is behind us, they may shrug that off and go higher, but there could be hiccups."

Earnings are expected to improve, but it could take several more months, Mortimer said.

"The stock market's ability to rally at the back end of the year is really a function of economic recovery."

Ron Meisels is far more confident the current bounce in stock prices is the beginning of a bull run.

Meisels, a technical analyst with Montreal-based NA-marketletter.com, is predicting that North American stock markets will rise between 18 and 25 per cent by year's end.

A resolution of the Iraq situation is the trigger but the key is that significant uncertainty has been removed from investors' minds, Meisels said.

"If Iraq wasn't there, we would have found another reason to worry," he said.

"Bull markets always climb a wall of worry."

www.martinsvilleastros.com

Friday Aug 17, 2001 Catcher Reinaldo Ruiz was the man of the hour in Martinsville's 2-1 upending of the Bluefield Orioles Thursday night in front of 1,269 at Hooker Field.

Ruiz, a 6-foot, 170-pound from Falcon, Venezuela, went 3-for-4 with a home run to power the Astros (24-29) past the Appalachian League East leading Orioles (26-26). Ruiz was also instrumental in a late-inning defensive stop that sustained Martinsville's one-run lead.

With one out and a runner on third in the top of the eighth, Bluefield's Bryan Bass flied out to deep right field. With the runner heading full tilt toward home, Trevor Mote unleashed a smoking, one-hop strike to Ruiz, who effectively blocked the plate and made the tag for the third out.

The victory trims Bluefield's lead to three games over Martinsville and gives the Astros some much-needed momentum heading into their three-game road trip to Bristol.

Martinsville returns Aug. 20 to begin a nine-game homestand. The Astros face the Kingsport Mets in a double-header Monday that begins at 6 p.m.

Joey DeLeon picked up his first win of the season, scattering five hits and striking out five over five innings.

Leonardo Santana came on in the ninth and retired the side to pick up his sixth save.

Martinsville coach Gregg Langbehn credited his pitching staff and Mote's bullet from left field for making the difference.

"Joey threw a great ballgame. He never really got in trouble and we played good defense behind him tonight," he said.

"Trevor's play from right field was huge. Reinaldo did a good job of coming up with the ball and making the tag.

"As it turned out, that saved the game for us," he said.

Martinsville's first run came in the second inning as John Fagan doubled, took third on Ruiz's single, and scored on Esteban Avila's base hit.

Bluefield scored its lone run in the top of the fifth inning. Leadoff batter Adam Thomas singled and later came around on Omar Rogers' double.

By CHRISTIAN DOLLARHITE Bulletin Sports Writer www.martinsvillebulletin.com