AP Wire Posted on Thu, Mar. 27, 2003 BRAD FOSS Associated Press

NEW YORK - Oil prices rose above $30 a barrel Thursday for the first time since war broke out in Iraq, as concerns about worldwide supplies replaced early hopes for a quick end to the military conflict.

The price of oil on futures markets has risen nearly 13 percent since last Friday, when it dropped to a three-month low.

Traders, who expect the volatility to continue at least until the end of fighting in Iraq, have plenty to worry about:

_Commercial inventories of crude are extremely low in the United States at a time when refiners are cranking out gasoline for the summer driving season.

_Iraqi exports have ceased and supplies from Nigeria and Venezuela are down because of labor strife, taking more than 3 million barrels a day out of the world market.

_Finally, analysts said the extra petroleum being pumped by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to offset that shortfall hasn't entirely reached U.S. shores and might not be enough to calm markets when it does.

While these factors were in play as prices dropped last week, the stubborn fighting by Iraqi forces in recent days has convinced many oil - and military - analysts that a rapid conclusion to the battle is unlikely.

"Now, the market is recovering and trying to figure out where it should be," said Tom Bentz, a trader for BNP Paribas in New York. Bentz said prices are likely to vacillate between $26 and $31 a barrel as long as there is so much uncertainty.

At the upper end of that range, Bentz said, traders are likely to fret that there could be a reversal of fortunes if the extra supplies from Saudi Arabia were to arrive at U.S. ports at the same time that Nigeria resumes normal export levels of about 2.2 million barrels a day.

For now, oil traders are retreating from the view of ample supplies that emerged during the first 48 hours of the war.

Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.74 on Thursday to close at $30.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $30.45. Oil is up 13 percent from last Friday, when it closed at $26.91.

The nation's petroleum stocks rose by 3.7 million barrels last week to 273.9 million barrels, the Energy Department said Wednesday. However, that is still 17 percent below year-ago levels.

Mark Baxter, director of Southern Methodist University's Cox Maguire Energy Institute, said the extra crude supplied by certain members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not be enough to make up for what has been lost from others, including Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela.

Baxter estimated that the global market would still come up short by 1 million barrels a day - an amount that could be made up, he pointed out, by tapping the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a stockpile that contains 599 million barrels.

John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute, a Washington-based trade group, said he was confident that OPEC can keep the world adequately supplied.

"It's quite possible that (the extra OPEC barrels) are hitting the shores now," Felmy said.

The reason U.S. oil inventories aren't growing more substantially, he said, is because "we are running a lot of it through refineries to meet the summer gasoline demand."

<a href=www.sfgate.com>Reference MARIANELA JIMENEZ, Associated Press Writer Thursday, March 27, 2003
(03-27) 19:12 PST SAN JOSE, Costa Rica (AP) --

An opposition leader charged with treason for directing a two-month strike against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez arrived here Thursday after being granted asylum.

Carlos Ortega immediately left for a meeting with Foreign Minister Roberto Tovar at the Foreign Ministry where he later told reporters he was "glad to be in Costa Rica" but that his exile "doesn't mean the democratic movements in Venezuela will come to an end."

Ortega, president of the million-member Venezuelan Workers Confederation, had taken refuge in the Costa Rican embassy in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas to avoid arrest stemming from his role in leading a crippling nationwide strike.

Venezuelan authorities, however, agreed Wednesday to grant Ortega safe passage out of the country.

Waving Venezuelan and Costa Rican flags, a handful of government opponents gathered outside the embassy to bid farewell to the burly, tough-talking labor boss, who raised his fists in a victory gesture before leaving for the airport escorted by heavily armed federal police.

The general strike was aimed at forcing Chavez to resign or call early elections.

Chavez has demanded 20-year prison sentences for Ortega and co-strike leader Carlos Fernandez, saying that they must be punished because the work stoppage cost Venezuela an estimated $6 billion, caused fuel and food shortages and suffering among the nation's poor majority.

Costa Rica granted Ortega asylum after he expressed fears that his life could be in danger. Tovar said his country granted Ortega asylum as "a courtesy," adding that "with this Costa Rica again meets its humanitarian obligations."

Last week, a Venezuelan appeals court ordered the release of Fernandez, who escaped charges of rebellion. Fernandez was previously held under house arrest.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Thursday, March 27, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

 The Finance Ministry has agreed to release 22 billion bolivares from the Macro-Economic Stabilization Fund (Fiem) to the Metropolitan Mayor's Office. 

At a meeting with Metropolitan Municipal authorities, public sector trade union, firefighters, health worker and Metropolitan Police (PM) representatives, a Ministry negotiator also promised to release (as of April 2003) resources corresponding as due to the municipality from the yearly Constitutional Situation Fund, which will go towards normalizing fortnightly salaries and other commitments to workers. 

The resources released will pay help pay two of three backlog salaries owed municipal workers. Municipal pensioners, who have not been paid since December, were unlucky and will have to wait until the Ministry issues a payment order.  Part of the 22 billion must be set aside to build up depleted hospital supplies and stock until the situation returns to normal.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Thursday, March 27, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

The US Energy Department says Venezuelan oil imports to the USA seem to have returned to normal ... The American Petroleum Institute, on the other hand,  reports market brokers claiming that stocks have fallen from 402,000 to 271,78 Mbs, contradicting an Energy Department estimate of a 3.7 million rise to 273.9 Mbs. 

The US Energy Department report indicates that imports from Venezuela have normalized for the first time since December 6, 2002 when Petroleos de Venezuela(PDVSA) executives & managers decided to use oil production and exports as a political tool to oustthe Chavez Frias administration. 

Venezuela is currently the USA's fifth biggest supplier, moving down two places from third position which it conquered at the beginning of 2002. Imports to the USA are said to be increasing 1 million bpd (9.7 Mbs).

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Thursday, March 27, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

5 of 13 Venezuelan merchant navy (PDV-Marina) tankers are out of circulation ... and tankers, "Paria" and "Caura" have already lost their international classification because of lack of maintenance. 

The tanker "Inicairte" has a split in one of its cargo tanks and must be repaired before the next inspection or lose its certificate.

The "Ambrosio" also reports problems in the tanks as well as loading and unloading tubes. 

The "Moruy" has problems in its main engine preventing it from moving anchor and the "Pilin Leon" tanker, which led the merchant navy's revolt against the Venezulan government, has remained anchored for the very same reason.

All in all, it means that only 6 of 13 tankers are in any normal state for carrying cargoes of gasoline and petroleum.