<a href=ogj.pennnet.com>Reference Paula Dittrick Senior Staff Writer

HOUSTON, Mar. 27 -- Unleaded gasoline futures prices for April jumped by 3.93¢ to 92.42¢/gal on the New York Mercantile Exchange Wednesday after the US Energy Information Agency reported gasoline inventories declined by 2.1 million bbl to 199 million bbl for the week ended Mar. 21.

US crude oil stocks increased by 3.7 million bbl to 273.9 million bbl for the same period. The boost in gasoline prices helped boost crude oil prices, said analysts.

"As we transition to the summer-grade season, supply-demand pressures for gasoline are expected to manifest in higher than historically normal gas cracks—the per barrel price spread between unleaded and crude which drives refining profit margins—consistent with our views these past 4 months about the 2003 summer driving season," said Michael Rothman, senior energy market specialist with Merrill Lynch Global Securities Research & Economics Group, Thursday.

For instance, refining profit margins on the US West Coast posted a 2-year high within the last week, he said.

If demand for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' crude oil exceeds the Merrill Lynch forecast because of storage rebuilding, planned addition to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and fuel switching away from natural gas, then the global output "capacity cushion" of 1.2 million b/d could shrink to fewer than 500,000 b/d. That compars with 6.8 million b/d before Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, Rothman said.

Crude futures traders also decided again that the US-led war in Iraq could be longer than initially expected. They acknowledged that an uprising against the Iraqi government in the city of Basra was not as significant as early reports had indicated.

Nigeria, Venezuela exports Crude export outages because of civil unrest in Nigeria and Venezuela also have helped support oil prices. A military-tribal clash reportedly caused 800,000 b/d of Nigeria's oil output to be shut down as of Mar. 26.

"Current oil prices are not fully reflecting the tightness in inventories and gasoline problems, let alone the current geopolitical context," said Paul Horsnell, analyst for J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., London.

He said the status of exports for second half 2003 "is open to question. That implies that market concerns about supposed OPEC overproduction are totally misplaced. Indeed, we may have exactly the reverse problem."

Horsnell said supply concerns would be valid even if Nigerian supplies could be guaranteed but "they cannot be. . . . We are not confident that any ceasefire with the Ijaw (tribal fighters) will keep a lid on the problem."

Venezuela was a key supplier of oil to the US before a general strike started in December against the government of President Hugo Chávez.

Government officials claim the country has restored its oil production to more than 3 million b/d, but former officials of gutted state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA claim current production actually is 2.4 million b/d.

Current PDVSA COO Luis Marin briefed Washington, DC-based PCF Energy last week in an effort to help convince US officials that Venezuelan crude production is 2.95 million b/d, including synthetic crude, and is expected to average 3 million b/d in April.

Acknowledging inconsistencies in data from government and former PDVSA officials, Marin insisted that production recovery has been much faster and more thorough than many believed possible.

Meanwhile, Venezuela's gasoline exports are to be restored at the end of March, Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters in Caracas Wednesday.

On Thursday, Reuters wire service reported that PDVSA plans to shut its 195,000 b/d Puerto de la Cruz refinery for 25 days during the first half of May for maintenance. Puerto de la Cruz was the only Venezuelan refinery not shut during the strike, Reuters reported.

Market prices The May contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes gained 66¢ to $28.63/bbl Wednesday on NYMEX. The June contract was up 37¢ to $26.83/bbl.

Refined products also closed higher. Heating oil for April delivery rose 0.92¢ to 74.41¢/gal.

The April natural gas contract, which expired Thursday, gained 2¢ to $5.10/Mcf Wednesday on NYMEX. Gas in storage was 643 bcf as of Mar. 21, EIA estimates showed Thursday. That was a net increase of 7 bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 918 bcf fewer than last year at this time and 580 bcf below the 5 year average of 1.2 tcf.

The May contract for North Sea Brent oil rose toward the close of trading Wednesday on the International Petroleum Exchange upon reports of fierce Iraqi resistance.

The IPE May Brent futures settled at $25.29/bbl, up 48¢ from Tuesday's settlement. Wednesday's high was 25.80/bbl, and the low was $25.05/bbl.

Traders said futures values were expected to rally Thursday upon concerns that strong Iraqi resistance would slow the allied troops' advance into Baghdad. Traders expected prices to test resistance at $26/bbl but believed that prices were unlikely to break through that level Thursday, traders forecast.

The April natural gas contract lost 2¢ to the equivalent of $2.73/Mcf Wednesday on IPE.

The average price for OPEC's basket of seven benchmark crudes dropped by $1.30 to $25.54/bbl Wednesday.

Contact Paula Dittrick at Paulad@ogjonline.com

Press Release Source: Commonwealth Energy Advisors Thursday March 27, 2:23 pm ET

MARLBOROUGH, Mass., March 27 /PRNewswire/ -- On the heels of establishing of a New York office, Commonwealth Energy Advisors, Inc. ("CEA") today announced the further addition of five highly experienced professionals to their Marlborough office. These two expansions in staff have resulted in a near doubling of CEA's consulting team over the past four months. John P. Kelly, William R. Hopkins, James A. Doering, John E. Higgins, and Danielle S. Powers will work with CEA in providing advisory services to energy and utility companies as well as financial institutions in the energy sector throughout North America.

"CEA is pleased to continue its growth in key practice areas. The skills of these new team members are complimentary to those of the existing staff. Having worked together in the past, we look forward to continuing our long- standing professional relationships both as a consulting group and with our traditional clients," said John J. Reed, Chairman and CEO of the company.

As announced in January, William Patterson, Frank Russell and David Brauer joined the company and have a primary focus on advisory services to financial, institutional and operating companies in the energy sector throughout North America. The newest team members bring a breadth of experience in the areas of mergers and acquisitions, asset sales, valuations and appraisals, regulatory and litigation support, financial and corporate strategy, and energy market assessment. The addition of these senior professionals enhances and expands CEA's ability to provide leading edge financial advisory services to its growing client base.

Mr. Kelly is a valuation consultant with over 35 years of experience conducting valuations of public utility and industrial properties for ratemaking, purchase and sale considerations, ad valorem tax assessments, accounting and financial purposes. He has broad international experience, having provided valuation and appraisal services in India, Brazil, Canada, Peru, New Zealand, Barbados, and Venezuela. He has provided expert testimony before utility commissions, federal and state courts, and administrative bodies on more than 45 occasions. In addition to his valuation experience, Mr. Kelly has also been appointed and approved to prepare independent engineer's certificates relative to valuation matters by numerous utility companies, trustees, and banks. He served as a Vice President of Stone & Webster Management Consultants, Inc., Director of Stone & Webster's Appraisal Division, and most recently served as a Director at Navigant Consulting, Inc. Mr. Kelly is a Certified Appraiser in several states, a Registered Professional Engineer, and a graduate of Northeastern University.

Mr. Doering has over 22 years of experience in the federal regulation of natural gas and oil pipeline rates and tariffs and the analysis of natural gas issues. His areas of expertise include tariff and operational issues, regulatory applications, service terms and conditions, rate design, and expert testimony and/or settlement of contested issues. Mr. Doering has comprehensive knowledge of natural gas transmission regulation, experience in all aspects of ratemaking, and has testified in a number of FERC cases regarding costs and rate design. Mr. Doering has represented clients on more than 19 pipeline companies and two major pipeline projects in the United States and Canada, covering issues as diverse as market analysis, roll-in of project costs, producer refunds, and imbalance cash-outs and penalties. He has also worked with gas distribution and electric companies in the United States and Canada on various regulatory and rate issues. Mr. Doering received a B.B.A. in Accounting from the University of Texas at El Paso, has CFO level financial management experience, and is a certified public accountant. He was previously a Principal with Navigant Consulting Inc. and prior to that with REED Consulting Group.

Mr. Hopkins, is an expert in utility pricing, costing and regulation matters, with over 30 years of experience and expert testimony before regulatory bodies. Specialization in national and international gas, electric and water utility tariff designs; including rate case preparation, pricing design, incentives, cost of service studies, special contracts, tariff terms and conditions and regulatory issues. Consulting expertise also includes consulting experience with utilities in the forecasting of operating results, economic analyses, market surveys and valuation studies. Experience in the leadership of consulting teams on large client projects. Prior joining CEA Mr. Hopkins was a Director at Navigant Consulting and REED Consulting Group which he joined after working for over ten years at Stone &Webster management Consultants.

Mr. Higgins is a management consultant with 15 years of experience in the energy industry. Mr. Higgins specializes in energy industry restructuring issues and the analysis of competitive energy markets and has extensive experience in wholesale energy market design, energy market assessment, energy price forecasting, and asset valuation. Mr. Higgins has managed numerous projects involving energy market structure, rules and fundamentals, price forecast issues, and project and portfolio revenue optimization. Mr. Higgins has also advised several clients on competitive procurement processes for the purchase or sale of either commodity or other energy services. Most recently, he has served as an independent evaluator for a major northeast utility's standard offer and default service solicitation process. Prior to joining CEA, Mr. Higgins served in senior consulting positions at Navigant Consulting, Inc. and REED Consulting Group, and as a generation planning engineer at Central Vermont Public Service Corp. Mr. Higgins holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from Northeastern University.

Ms. Powers is a management, financial, and economic consultant with 14 years of experience in the energy industry. She has an extensive background in generation asset sales and acquisitions, asset valuation, energy planning and procurement, market analysis, transmission interconnections, and power plant operations. Ms. Powers has been involved in and/or managed the sale of over 12,000 MW of fossil fueled generation and purchased power contracts. Specifically, her responsibilities in these transactions included strategic options review, asset valuation, energy market assessment, regulatory support, transition power sales, bid evaluation, and due diligence support. In addition, Ms. Powers has substantial experience in energy procurement and has assisted several clients in obtaining competitive electricity supply in the deregulated market. Most recently, Ms. Powers served as a Senior Engagement Manager at Navigant Consulting, Inc. Ms. Powers has a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst and an M.B.A. from Bentley College.

About CEA: Headquartered in Marlborough, Mass., CEA is a management consulting and financial advisory firm focused on the North American energy and water industries. CEA specializes in transaction-related financial advisory services, energy market strategies, market assessments, regulatory and litigation support, economic feasibility studies, and capital market analyses and negotiations. CEA is in no way affiliated with Commonwealth Energy Company of California.

More information on the firm's staff, affiliates, service offerings and its philosophy of client-consultant constructive collaboration can be found at CEA's web site, www.ceadvisors.com, or by calling the firm's headquarters at 508-787-0900.

 Contacts:
 John J. Reed           508-263-6262
 Robert B. Hevert       508-263-6204

<a href=www.stltoday.com>AP By JIM SALTER Associated Press updated: 03/27/2003 01:09 PM

ST. LOUIS (AP) -- Only Oklahoma can boast of lower gasoline prices than the Show-Me State, an analyst with AAA Auto Club of Missouri said Thursday.

The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded is selling for $1.51 in Missouri, second to Oklahoma's $1.50 and well below the national average of $1.67. Some states are still paying more than $2 per gallon, including California, where the average price is $2.17, according to AAA's nationwide survey.

The lowest prices in Missouri are in the St. Louis area, where a typical gallon of regular unleaded is selling for $1.45, said Mike Right, of AAA's St. Louis office.

Prices around the state and the nation have fallen sharply in the past month-and-a-half, and particularly since the war with Iraq began March 19.

The average price for a gallon of regular unleaded in St. Louis was $1.72 on Feb. 13 and $1.61 on March 19. Experts said the 10-cent drop in the past eight days comes as pre-war anxiety has given way to a feeling that the U.S.-led effort seems to be going well.

The price of gasoline is tied directly to crude oil. As war neared and investors worried about the potential for attacks on oil wells and interruption of supply shipments from the Middle East, the price of crude oil rose sharply, reaching $38 per barrel on March 7.

By Thursday, the price had dropped to around $28 per barrel.

Crude oil is like any other commodity,'' said Ronald Leone, vice president of the Missouri Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association in Jefferson City. It's sold just like pork bellies or shares of IBM. There are many psychological factors that go into it, and they're difficult to predict or quantify.''

The drop in crude oil prices has allowed wholesale gasoline prices to drop from $1.07 per gallon on March 7 to 88 cents per gallon Thursday. When that happens, the retail price declines as well.

We deserved it, for crying out loud,'' Right said. We've been paying excessive prices for quite a while now.''

War anxiety wasn't the only factor. Internal strife late last year in Venezuela cut off much of that country's export of oil to the United States. Right said America imports 15 percent to 17 percent of its crude oil from Venezuela.

Prices at the pumps may be about to bottom out, Right said. As the weather gets warmer, more people travel so the demand for gasoline is greater. That usually leads to an increase in prices, though Right doubted they would exceed the pre-war highs.

``Hopefully we have seen the highest prices for 2003,'' he said.

But Leone noted that things could change quickly, depending on what happens in the Middle East.

There seems to be some certainty in the marketplace in how the war will end and that it will be a quick war with relatively little disruption in supply,'' Leone said. But you know, that could change tomorrow if Saddam Hussein sets a bunch of oil wells on fire or if the war doesn't go like we want it to go.''

Dow Jones Newswires Friday March 28, 2:01 AM

QUITO -(Dow Jones)- In January, Ecuador sent 36% of its exports to the U.S., 22% to Europe and 21% to Andean Community Countries, the central bank said Thursday.

According to the bank, another 7% went to Asia, 1% to the Latin American Association of Integration, or Aladi, and the remainder to other countries.

In the first month of 2003, exports to the U.S. totaled $156.8 million; to Europe, $94.8 million; to the Andean Community, $90.4 million; to Asia, $28.9 million; and to Aladi, $5.4 million.

On the import side of the ledger, Ecuador imported $149.7 million, or 24%, from the U.S.; $122.6 million, or 20%, from Europe; $121.4 million, or 19%, from Aladi; $108.1 million, or 17%, from the Andean Community; and $91.2 million, or 15%, from Asia.

The Andean Community consists of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. Aladi is made up of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico.

Ecuadorean exports worldwide totaled $436.4 million in the first month of 2003, while imports totaled $620.9 million, according to the central bank.

-By Mercedes Alvaro, Dow Jones Newswires; 5939-9728-653; mercedes.alvaro@dowjones.com

AP Wire Posted on Thu, Mar. 27, 2003 CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela - An opposition leader charged with treason for directing a two-month strike against President Hugo Chavez left Thursday for exile in Costa Rica.

Carlos Ortega, head of the Venezuelan Labor Confederation, was being escorted by federal police from the Costa Rican Embassy to Caracas' international airport for a flight to San Jose, Costa Rica.

Chavez's government granted Ortega safe passage Wednesday, allowing the head of the 1 million-member federation to take advantage of a Costa Rican offer of humanitarian asylum.

Ortega, who called the strike in December trying to force Chavez's resignation and early elections, slipped into the embassy March 14 and requested political asylum after being charged with rebellion and treason. Those charges carry prison terms of up to 20 years each.

A handful of government adversaries waving Venezuelan and Costa Rican flags bid farewell to the burly, tough-talking opposition leader, one of Chavez's most outspoken critics. Ortega briefly raised his fists in a victory gesture before entering a car that sped him to the airport.

Costa Rica granted Ortega diplomatic asylum for humanitarian reasons after the labor boss expressed fears for his life.

Strike co-leader Carlos Fernandez, head of Venezuela's largest business confederation, also was charged with treason after the strike ended in February. He was placed under house arrest, but a court last week said there was insufficient evidence and ordered him freed.

Attorney General Isaias Rodriguez appealed.

The nationwide strike briefly paralyzed Venezuela's crucial oil industry, caused food and fuel shortages and cost the struggling economy at least $6 billion.

In nightly press conferences, Ortega and Fernandez demanded Chavez's resignation, saying his days in office were numbered. Chavez, elected to his current six-year term in 2000, ignored their demands to quit or call a referendum on his presidency.

Chavez's opponents accuse him of riding roughshod over the country's democratic institutions in his self-described "revolution" to help Venezuela's poor.

Chavez in turn accuses the opposition of incessantly conspiring to overthrow his elected government.

Despite dozens of marches, highway blockades, and an ambitious petition drive demanding an early vote, the strike fizzled last month.

Last week, seven former executives of the state oil monopoly emerged from hiding after a judge revoked warrants for their arrest on charges of interrupting the country's fuel supply. They were among 15,000 workers - almost half the work force at Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. - fired for striking.

The Organization of American States has mediated talks since November to find an electoral solution to the political standoff.