<a href=www.newsday.com>By James Toedtman CHIEF ECONOMIC CORRESPONDENT

March 30, 2003 Washington -- Hopes for a quick postwar recovery by the U.S. economy have hit a land mine on the road to Nasiriyah. As the timetable for a successful war has been sharply extended by surprise resistance and unexpected attacks in southern Iraq, war nerves have shaken consumer confidence and the already unsteady stock market. A war premium on energy prices persists, and business is nervous and reluctant to push sales in an increasingly anti-Yankee global marketplace, economists say. "I think we will win the war. But the question is: How do we feel about winning the war and when do we win the war?" said Martin Regalia, chief economist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Like military commanders, consumers, economists and business leaders hunt for clues to the length and difficulty of the conflict. "We’re going to know where we’re headed in a very short time," said Kevin Hassett, economist at the American Enterprise Institute. But, he added, the war "could drive us into a deep recession." As television images of powerful explosions over Baghdad gave way to pictures of hollowed tanks and wounded soldiers, there were new signs that U.S. economic activity was creeping to a halt. The prewar rally on Wall Street two weeks ago collapsed Monday and the markets slumped for the rest of the week, with the Dow Jones industrials dropping 376 points, or 4.4 percent, in five days. The week’s economic data also indicated flat consumer spending for the second straight month, lower consumer confidence for the third straight month and the dollar at its lowest value in four years. "A weak dollar may translate into greater exports as it makes our goods more competitive," said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. "That’s all good, given economic growth in the U.S. seems to be on life support." Conversely, of course, a weaker dollar makes imported goods more expensive for American consumers. History dictates a preoccupation with energy prices, since the six recessions in the past 33 years have followed energy price spikes. Although crude oil prices reached $40 per barrel three weeks ago, they declined below $30 after the fighting began until rising 10 percent last week. Still, said Sung won Sohn, economist for Wells Fargo Bank in Minneapolis, prices should be in the $22-$24 range based on current supply and demand, reflecting a war premium of more than $5. Price pressure has eased in part because disruptions in Venezuela have ended and the demands of a cold winter have passed. But the deeper the Iraq conflict lasts into the summer driving season, the sooner energy prices will increase. War costs are another unknown. The administration’s initial estimate of $75 billion is regarded as modest in a $2.2-trillion budget. But by the end of the week, the Pentagon was planning to deploy an additional 100,000 troops. Further, the estimate includes $3 billion for reconstruction costs. The Congressional Budget Office estimates rebuilding costs at $12 billion to $40 billion a year, while a recent study directed by former Defense Secretary James Schlesinger projected a $20-billion annual cost for a stabilizing and rebuilding effort that would last many years. Figures like those contributed to growing angst over what Senate budget analyst William Hoagland referred to as the "shock and awe deficits" in the federal budget, which have soared from $118 billion to more than $400 billion this year alone.

Sunday, March 30, 2003 By CP

The U.S. slurps up more oil and natural gas from Canada than any other foreign country on Earth. And with war raging in the Mideast, civil uprisings in other oil producing countries and a recent decision not to drill in a sensitive U.S. Arctic wildlife refuge in Alaska, even greater demand for Canadian energy is expected. The daily flow of Canadian oil to the U.S. has increased dramatically over the last few years and almost double the quantity from a decade ago. Canada is now second only to Saudi Arabia as a source of imported oil for the U.S., which imported 1.8 billion barrels per day from the Saudis in January and 1.6 million barrels per day from its northern neighbour. When imports of natural gas are included, the importance of Canada as an energy source for the U.S. becomes even more apparent. Canada supplied about 94% of American gas imports last year. Yet with all the volatility in global energy markets, talk of future U.S. energy rarely focus on Canada. "I don't think Canadian oil production comes first of mind to Americans when they think of where their gas, diesel and jet product comes from," said Rick George, president of oilsands giant Suncor Energy. But recent U.S. media attention to the massive energy reserves in the northern Alberta oilsands -- and the synthetic crude created from its bitumen -- suggests awareness is quickly growing, he said. For the first time, a recent report by the Oil and Gas Journal on global oil reserves included 177 billion barrels of reserves from the oilsands -- a number that dwarfs estimated reserves of Canadian conventional oil. Greg Stringham, a vice-president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, says political stability is also a key ingredient for energy trade between the U.S. and Canada. "They're a good market, we're a good supplier. (The U.S.) is close and it's connected by pipeline. So all of those things add to our attractiveness as a potential producer," Stringham said. Meanwhile, recent political problems have made several of the world's other large energy producers less-than attractive as an energy source for the U.S. Vince Lauerman, a global energy strategist with the Canadian Energy Research Institute, says a "relatively long and brutal war" in Iraq would greatly enhance demand for Canadian energy. "The worse the war goes, and the more the Middle East boils, the higher energy security becomes as an important issue to Washington," Lauerman said. "And with that comes benefits to Canada." But the Mideast is not the only trouble spot for global oil production. About 40%, or 800,000 barrels per day, of Nigeria's oil was cut off this week as energy companies evacuated staff amid tribal fighting that has killed at least 100 people in the past two weeks. And Venezuela is still struggling to recover from a two-month strike that failed to oust President Hugo Chavez and paralysed the South American country's lifeblood oil industry, costing about $9 billion. Still, geopolitical turmoil does not necessarily mean greater demand for Canadian oil, said one U.S. energy company spokesman. "There's lots of sources out there and a well-developed oil infrastructure all over the world." But a recent political decision in Washington has the potential to increase U.S. demand for Canadian energy in future. Last week, the U.S. Senate narrowly rejected a budget provision that would have allowed oil drilling in the 77,000-sq.-km Alaska National Wildlife Refuge.

Posted: Sunday, March 30, 2003 <a href=www.vheadline.com>By: The Very Reverend Roger Dawson

4th Sunday in Lent 2003 sermon by The Very Reverend Roger Dawson Dean of St. Mary's Anglican Cathedral, Caracas

In Christianity it has been traditionally thought that God was male. After all, Jesus' prayer "Our Father" and told his followers to think of God as a close and caring father. He never, as far as I know, ever said that God was a caring mother. The God that Jesus worshipped was YHWH, the God of war and creation ... a God that lived in cloud and spoke in thunder.

Such a God would naturally be thought of as male and, as all societies were patriarchal and male dominated and women were not thought intelligent enough to be worth educating, it is not surprising that God came to be thought of as male.

Some Greek and Roman societies considered male children to be so superior to female children that they would put female infants on the hillside to die rather than take them into their families. There are societies today that still practice this family "cleansing." Yet where would any of us be without women in society?

So much were past ages against women, that men who turned to a holy life rejected women altogether, seeing them as a distraction and full of the devilment that they were to live without if they were to come close to God. Christian monks today still have to swear to chastity as one of the three vows though, by all accounts, a good few of them are sodomites and they don't seem to count this as breaking the rule which just goes to show how hypocritical the whole system is.

The Roman Catholic Church in the United States is tottering on the brink of collapse because of homosexual practices and most of the priests who are not so inclined are likely as not living with their housekeepers. There is a point at which it is both unnatural and downright dangerous to keep the sexes apart and not to regard them as equal.

Equality does not mean that the two sexes have to do the same functions in the family or in the household. There are obvious differences that require men to be fathers and women to be mothers, but both sexes in fact mother and father their children. Understanding the two roles is good for everyone, including the children.

There seems to be no reason why, in all other stages of life, and in every sphere of living and working the two sexes can't work together as equal partners.

Of course there are men who don't like this because they like to think that God has a special and direct line of revelation that will only work through the male species.

I hate to tell them that it isn't true. What is true is that in the past women have been so denied that they did not have the opportunity to participate in the gift of revelation of God's wishes. It does require some learning and study and understanding, otherwise women are relegated to the mysterious and mystic and the mad in order to make an impact on the male world ... to bring in a special revelation of God, and then it doesn't always work, as Joan of Arc found out.

Hilda of Whitby and Mildred of Kent and Hildegarde of Bingham were women who did make a difference to the ecclesiastical scene, but they are the exceptions rather than the rule. Julian of Norwich, whose book we have been following in the magazine, had to take on a male name in order to be recognized; a trick that was taken up again by female authors in the 19th century as an aid against rejection.

The odd thing is, that weak men often marry strong-minded women who become even stronger as a result. Take the biblical figure of Jezebel as an example. Her husband the king was infatuated with her, and let her bring in her own religion and gods, much to the anger and frustration of Elijah who was still on the side of YHWH. Jezebel came after him, and he escaped to Beersheba, in the southern most part of Judah, and leaving his servant there, goes into the mountains to hide, only to find God whispering his next instruction to him to get off his butt and go and face this woman and her priests. He wins ... which is why it is remembered ... though it is thought that he wins only by trickery, but as Jezebel herself was a woman of trickery and treachery this is considered OK.

The bible likes the men to win, unless they are on the side of YHWH ... and then they are allowed to take part in the action.

Today, we are seeing women in a way that history has always denied them, except for odd instances that have never lasted for long. In the United States, women had to work as hard as men doing difficult physical tasks to establish farms and businesses in this new world. They became a formidable breed that was unlikely to be subdued for long.

Wars in Europe reduced the male population to such levels that women began to play a more active role in almost every sphere of life. Education to girls as well as boys created a whole generation of educated women, who were not content just to sit around looking pretty. They wanted the vote and have a say in the affairs of the world.

When the industrial revolution came, manual workers were wanted by the thousand, and women were the cheapest labor, so they got the jobs and proved that their strength was enough for almost every kind of job.

In the Second World War, women fought side by side with men in some armies, and in other countries they were the ones who built the tanks and guns. When the war was over, there was no going back to the old system. Economics and economies had changed as well as people's perceptions of what women could do.

In spite of the handicap that women throughout history have labored under, a number of them have contributed to the world in ways that we should never forget. Way back at the end of the 3rd century, Hypatia of Alexandria was a scientist who invented the plane astrolabe used to measure the position of the sun and stars. She also invented a hydrometer by which specific gravity can be measured. Her life was cut short by fundamentalist Christian monks who hacked her to death with scallop shells.

In the eleventh century, Trotula of Salerno was a female physician who promoted hygiene, a balanced diet and exercise to promote good health. She wrote a book "Practica Brevis" that was in use for the next seven hundred years. Calculus was devised by Maria Agnesi, in Milan, at the beginning of the 18th century. Bette Nesmith invented "Liquid Paper" because she was a bad typist. When she died in 1980 she left $50 million. Marion Donovan invented the disposable nappy (diaper) and Margaret Knight invented the machine to make the brown paper bag in the mid-1800s. The Russian Ida Rosenthal invented the bra at the turn of the 20th century, and set up the MaidenForm Brassiere Company in 1923. Eleanor Butterick had the bright idea of paper patterns for dresses to be made at home, and a young woman invented the ice cream cone but no one knows her name.

These are just a few of the women who have changed our lives, and the way we live them, but the one woman who has changed us most is the mother who gave us birth and the woman who brought us up till we were at least six or seven. She is, or was, as much of the God of creation as any man though he should be remembered too, for many men are as much our mothers as women. Indeed it is a mixed and happy combination of skills and temperament that makes God into God and us into who and what we are.

By HELEN HUNTLEY, Times Staff Writer © St. Petersburg Times published March 30, 2003

Investors putting their money into foreign funds in the past year have been richly rewarded. Market watchers say the trend is far from over.

U.S. foreign policy isn't the only thing that has taken a beating in Europe. The dollar has been battered, too. Since its peak a year-and-a-half ago, the U.S. dollar has lost nearly a fourth of its value against the euro, the 4-year-old European currency.

The downhill slide was particularly severe this winter as international tensions grew. The dollar and the euro were an even exchange in early December, but by the time the dollar hit bottom March 10, it took $1.17 to buy a single euro. Even with a rebound as war against Iraq began, the dollar remains well below December levels.

But bad news for the dollar is good news for some U.S. investors, who are discovering ways to capitalize on the dollar's weakness and the higher interest rates available overseas.

Those bold enough to make the move last year have been richly rewarded. In the past year, international bond funds were up an average of 19 percent, second only to gold funds among the mutual fund sectors tracked by Morningstar.

While predicting currency movements is never a sure bet, many market watchers say this trend is a long way from being over.

"We believe we're about one year into a multiyear decline in the U.S. dollar," said Frank Trotter, president of Everbank, an online bank that specializes in foreign currency accounts. The unusual bank, which has its headquarters in St. Louis, offers accounts in euros, Norwegian krone, Mexican pesos and many other currencies.

Trotter said the bank's foreign-denominated deposits have doubled in the past year to $165-million. The six-month CD offerings recently available included the Japanese yen at 0.01 percent, the euro at 2 percent, the New Zealand dollar at 5 percent, the Mexican peso at 8 percent and the South African rand at 11.75 percent.

Although it is among the lower-yielding offerings, the euro is by far the most popular choice, Trotter said. That's because most investors who open accounts are only secondarily concerned about interest earnings. Their primary goal is to make money on changes in the exchange rate, by holding the favored currency until they think it's an opportune time to convert back into dollars. They pay an exchange fee of 0.75 percent in each direction. To them the euro looks strongest.

In effect, the euro has become a default choice for investors who do not want to hold Japanese yen or U.S. dollars.

"It's the lesser of three evils," said Ian Kelson, who manages the $1.2-billion T. Rowe Price International Bond Fund from London. "The case for the weak dollar and the strong euro is not at all to do with anything very good in (the economy of) Europe, which if anything has weaker growth than in the U.S."

Part of what's wrong with the dollar is the political and economic upheaval created by the threat of terrorism and war with Iraq. However, the reasons for the dollar's fall go much deeper and are not likely to be quickly resolved.

"Usually when there is some sort of conflict, the dollar is seen as a safe haven -- except when the conflict involves the U.S.," said Scott Brown, economist for Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg. "Venezuela, Iraq and North Korea are all U.S. problems. If we get a solution to the Iraq conflict, things clear up in Venezuela and we get some dialogue with North Koreans, we could get some short-term improvement in the dollar. But long-term trends will be in place for a while."

Some describe the dollar's decline as inevitable. Like a pendulum, the dollar could go only so far in one direction before it had to swing back the other way. As the dollar strengthened, U.S. goods became increasingly expensive overseas, exports fell and manufacturers suffered. The weakening dollar has begun to produce a pickup in foreign sales, although that is being tempered to some extent by weak economies around the world.

"This is a natural process," said Michael Hasenstab, portfolio manager of the Franklin Templeton Hard Currency Fund in San Mateo, Calif. "Revaluation of the U.S. dollar could be beneficial to the U.S. economy by helping export growth. These macro adjustments tend to move toward equilibrium. We don't know when we will reach that equilibrium, but the pressures that have driven the U.S. dollar to these levels are still in place."

At the root of the dollar's woes is the current account deficit, the government's way of tracking money flowing into and out of the country through trade and investment. So many more dollars are flowing out that the deficit has now reached 5 percent of U.S. economic output, high enough to make investors nervous. Europe, by contrast, has a surplus.

Three big trends have contributed to the problem:

-- The balance of trade is off because U.S. manufacturers cannot sell enough U.S. goods overseas to keep pace with the U.S. consumer's appetite for foreign goods.

-- For years the trade deficit was offset by foreign investors making equity investments in the United States, buying stocks and direct interests in U.S. companies and real estate. In effect, the extra dollars we sent overseas to buy foreign goods came back to us as equity investments. But after three years of stock market decline, accounting scandals and a weaker economy, the equity inflows have dwindled.

-- U.S. interest rates are so low that foreign investors are losing their appetite for U.S. bonds. At the same time, the federal budget has moved from a surplus to a deficit, creating a need to sell more bonds. Ultimately that imbalance could lead to higher interest rates, although at least for now, U.S. investors are making up the difference by putting their money in bonds instead of stocks.

"At precisely the time that people lost confidence in the U.S. economy and stock market and became less willing to make equity investments, yields on U.S. assets fell to very low levels," said Kelson at T. Rowe Price. "Low interest rates are absolutely right for the current U.S. economic climate, but they're not at all helpful in promoting a dollar recovery."

Interest rates also have been coming down in Europe; the European Central Bank has lowered rates partly because of concerns that the strong euro will hurt manufacturing exports. But the rate decline has not occurred as quickly as in the United States, which means European rates still have room to fall. If they do, that could give foreign bonds another boost.

Once the economy begins to improve, interest rates are expected to pick back up, both in the United States and abroad. If that happens, bond prices will fall since interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions. The longer the term of the bond, the more its price is affected by interest-rate swings.

"I think U.S. bonds are the most vulnerable, but European bonds are potentially vulnerable too," Kelson said. "Our view is that this is not the moment to be very aggressive in terms of duration. It's much nearer the end game in terms of the interest rate cycle."

One way to skirt interest rate risk is to stick with very short-term investments, such as the Everbank CDs or the Franklin Templeton Hard Currency Fund, which keeps the average maturity of the securities it owns at 120 days or less.

"We're not looking to take interest rate risk," portfolio manager Hasenstab said. "Our financial advisers are showing this fund to clients as a hedge against the U.S. dollar" declining. He said the fund is making its biggest bets on the euro, the Swiss frank, Danish Krone and New Zealand, Australian and Canadian dollars.

Investing in foreign currencies and bonds remains a foreign concept for most U.S. investors.

"So far investors are not clamoring for it," said Greg Ghodsi, a stockbroker with Robert W. Baird & Co. in Tampa. "But in doing portfolio reviews, some ask what's going on with the dollar."

Investors who want to bet against the dollar have to be prepared for fluctuations in the value of their investments. The Everbank CDs carry FDIC insurance against bank insolvency, but there is no protection from losses if the dollar strengthens when you bet it would get weaker.

Some types of investments are more volatile than others. Broker Ghodsi said the safety-conscious investor should avoid individual foreign bonds, which have big price swings and may be difficult to sell.

"I don't think the typical investor would want to buy something at 100 (dollars per $100 of face value), see it go to 40 and then back up to 80," he said.

Ghodsi prefers mutual funds for foreign bond investments. He suggests investing through closed-end bond funds, which trade like shares of stock on the New York Stock Exchange and other exchanges. Because they do trade, it is possible to limit losses by setting up a standing order with a broker that will trigger the sale of the bond fund if the share price falls below a certain level.

Before buying any bond fund, investors should check to be sure its investing style matches their objectives. Some foreign funds hedge against currency fluctuations so you don't get big losses on the dollar's movements, but neither do you get big gains.

Foreign bonds and bond funds have not been particularly popular with U.S. investors for good reason: When the dollar was strong, they lost money. In addition, many investors prefer to keep their money closer to home.

For those willing to take the risk, putting some money in foreign income investments will diversify a portfolio since foreign bonds do not move up and down in synch with U.S. investments.

-- Helen Huntley can be reached at huntley@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8230.

Think the dollar is still on the downswing? Here are some ways to play your hunch. Just be prepared for losses if the dollar strengthens.

Bank accounts

• Everbank WorldCurrency CDs

CDs of up to 12 months available in a variety of foreign currencies. Minimum deposit $10,000. Currency conversions 0.75 percent each way. Go to www.everbank.com or call toll-free 1-888-882-3837. This St. Louis bank has no branches; all transactions handled online. Accounts have FDIC insurance to cover bank insolvency but not currency losses.

Open-end mutual funds

These funds may be purchased directly from the fund companies and through many brokerages.

• Franklin Templeton Hard Currency Fund (ICPHX)

Fund invests in short-term money-market instruments and currency contracts. Minimum investment $1,000. Initial sales charge 2.25 percent. Up 17.2 percent in 2002 (not including sales charge). Go to www.franklintempleton.com or call toll-free 1-800-632-2301 (press *0).

• American Century International Bond Fund (BEGBX)

Fund invests in government and corporate debt. Minimum investment $2,500. No sales charge. Up 23.5 percent in 2002. Go to www.americancentury.com or call toll-free 1-800-345-2021.

• T. Rowe Price International Bond Fund (RPIBX)

Fund invests in government and corporate debt. Minimum investment $2,500. No sales charge. Up 21.8 percent in 2002. Go to www.troweprice.com or call toll-free 1-800-225-5132.

Closed-end mutual funds

These funds trade like stocks and may be purchased through a brokerage. They may sell for more or less than their net asset value.

• Templeton Global Income Fund (GIM)

Fund invests in debt securities, about two-thirds in Europe. Trades on New York Stock Exchange. Up 30.5 percent in 2002. Go to www.franklintempleton.com.

• PIMCO Strategic Global Government Fund (RCS)

Fund invests in mortgage-backed securities and debt securities. Trades on New York Stock Exchange. Up 22.9 percent in 2002. Go to www.rcsfund.com.

Posted on Sun, Mar. 30, 2003 NOTEBOOK

POWs from first Gulf War sought

ORLANDO, Fla. - Specially trained U.S. forces behind enemy lines in Iraq are searching for evidence of allied prisoners of war, including Navy pilot Capt. Scott Speicher, whose F/A-18 fighter jet went down in the opening hours of the Persian Gulf War 12 years ago.

Speicher, initially thought killed in action Jan. 17, 1991, reportedly was seen alive on several recent occasions, including early this month by an informant near Baghdad, according to Amy Waters Yarsinske, a former U.S. Naval Reserve intelligence officer and expert on POWs and those missing in action. Lt. Cmdr. James Brooks noted that special military units are in Iraq on a variety of missions, including searching for the Jacksonville, Fla., pilot and father of two. -- ORLANDO SENTINEL

Pope pleads for religious harmony

VATICAN CITY -- Pope John Paul II urged the faithful Saturday not to allow the Iraq conflict to stir up hatred between Christians and Muslims, saying that would transform the war into a "religious catastrophe."The pontiff, who opposes the war, made the comments to bishops from Indonesia, a predominantly Muslim country with a small Christian community.

"War must never be allowed to divide world religions," he said. "I encourage you to take this unsettling moment as an occasion to work together, as brothers committed to peace ...

"Let us not permit a human tragedy also to become a religious catastrophe." -- ASSOCIATED PRESS

Australia increases assistance for Iraq

CANBERRA, Australia -- Amid warnings of a looming humanitarian crisis, Australia announced Saturday it will significantly increase its aid to Iraq.

Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said his government will donate $50 million to a U.N. appeal for Iraq, adding to the $10.5 million Australia has already sent through U.N. agencies and aid groups. -- ASSOCIATED PRESS

Grenade suspect returned to U.S.

FORT CAMPBELL, Ky. -- A U.S. soldier suspected of a deadly grenade attack on his own comrades in the 101st Airborne Division in Kuwait is back in the United States, Army officials said Saturday. Hasan Akbar, 32, arrived in the United States on Friday.The Army had previously said Akbar's first name was Asan, though family members had insisted all along that he spelled it Hasan.

The statement did not indicate where Akbar was being held, or whether he had returned to Fort Campbell Akbar is the only person being held in the grenade attack that killed two U.S. officers and wounded 14 soldiers March 23. A military judge found probable cause to prosecute Akbar for the attack, the Army said. Akbar still has not been formally charged with any offense. -- ASSOCIATED PRESS

Peace rallies held around the globe

BERLIN -- Antiwar demonstrators turned out in the thousands from South Korea to Chile on Saturday, spattering streets with paint, jeering outside U.S. embassies and, in one case, forming a 31-mile human chain.

More than 100,000 people protested in strongly antiwar Germany, half of them at a rally in Berlin.

In the Arab world, 10,000 turned out at a rally organized by Egypt's ruling party in Port Said, and in Amman, Jordan, more than 3,000 people demanded the government expel U.S. troops.

Demonstrations also took place in Italy, Greece, Bangladesh, Malaysia, South Korea, Great Britain, Poland, Hungary, Russia, Ireland, Chile and Venezuela. -- ASSOCIATED PRESS