Saturday, March 29, 2003
Stocks slip...Personal income seen edging up...Sentiment flat?
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New York-AP -- Wall Street remains focused on the Iraqi war, and that has the market putting in some choppy performances.
Yesterday (Thursday) stocks ended little changed, but not before opening sharply lower, clawing their way into positive territory, and then slipping a bit by the close.
The chief concern right now is that the fighting could last for months, putting pressure on an already sluggish economy as uneasy businesses and consumers curtail their spending.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 28 points at 82-oh-one. The Dow retreated 50 points on Wednesday and shed 307 on Monday, the market's worst day in six months.
The market's broader gauges also posted modest losses. The Nasdaq composite fell three points to 13-hundred-84. The Standard and Poor's 500 index declined a point and a-half to 868.
(Washington-Dow Jones/AP) -- Economists are looking for a very modest increase in personal income in February.
The market consensus forecast is for income to have risen two-tenths of one percent and for personal spending to have slipped two tenths of a percent.
A survey by Dow Jones Newswires and business channel C-N-B-C came up with a slightly different result -- a minimal one-tenth percent increase in personal income and an unchanged level of consumer spending.
The data will be of interest to analysts who are keeping a close on the habits of consumers.
The Commerce Department is due to release the personal income and consumption data for February at 8:30 a-m Eastern time.
(New York-Dow Jones/AP) -- The University of Michigan's final consumer-sentiment reading for March is expected to be unchanged from the preliminary reading.
The median estimate of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and financial news channel C-N-B-C is for the Michigan consumer sentiment index to hold at the mid-month reading of 75. But that would be a decline from the 79-point-nine reading at the end of February.
The University of Michigan is expected to release its consumer sentiment index to subscribers around 9:45 a-m Eastern time.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board released its March index of consumer confidence, which fell to 62-point-five from 64-point-eight in February.
(New York-AP) -- Oil prices have risen above 30 dollars-a-barrel for the first time since war broke out in Iraq.
In New York futures trading, crude for May delivery rose a-dollar-74 yesterday (Thursday) to close at 30 dollars, 37 cents a barrel.
In fact, the price of oil on futures markets has risen nearly 13 percent since last Friday, when it dropped to a three-month low.
There are concerns about worldwide supplies as the prospect grows that the military conflict with Iraq could be prolonged.
That's not the only thing traders are worried about.
Commercial inventories of crude are extremely low in the United States at a time when refiners are cranking out gasoline for the summer driving season.
Also, supplies from Nigeria and Venezuela are down because of labor strife. Those problems along with the lack of Iraqi exports have taken more than three (m) million barrels a day out of the world market.
(Washington-AP) -- Ignoring calls for more time, Federal Communications Commission Chairman Michael Powell says the government's media ownership review will be completed in June.
Powell says regulators probably will vote June second on a broad overhaul of rules limiting ownership of newspapers and radio and T-V stations.
The agency is studying whether decades-old ownership restrictions are suitable for a market altered by satellite broadcasts, cable television and the Internet. Powell repeatedly has said changes are needed.
It is widely believed the two other Republicans on the five-member commission also want to loosen regulations.
The owners of the four major television networks have asked the F-C-C to abolish the ownership rules, saying the regulations restrict their ability to grow and stay competitive.
Critics say weakened restrictions will lead to more mergers and a few large companies controlling what people read, hear and watch.
Copyright 2003 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Energy stocks reflect market's general gloom
Posted by click at 5:55 AM
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Energy
High oil prices don't translate into profits
Friday March 28, 2003
By John M. Biers
Energy writer
Common sense suggests high oil and natural gas prices should mean robust profits and lofty prices for energy stocks. But as energy companies of all persuasions know all too well, the reception on Wall Street has been stingy of late.
Share prices of leading oil-service companies, more than 30 percent below the level of their mid-2001 peaks, have shown little sign of recovery over the past six months, according to the widely watched Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index. Independent oil and gas companies -- which explore for and produce energy but don't operate their own refineries -- have fared somewhat better but are hardly trading at boom-time levels. And some companies, including supermajor ChevronTexaco, are actually trading below their value when oil prices languished near $10 in late 1998.
On one level, analysts say, the anemic pricing of shares reflects the stock market's overall slump following the demise of the so-called technology bubble, a global recession and numerous corporate scandals. Merrill Lynch estimates the stock markets -- or equity markets -- have lost more than $100 billion since mid-2002, with investors directing more money to preferred stock, land, income trusts and other investments.
"We have replaced the equity cult with the income cult," said Merrill Lynch chief economist David Rosenberg. "Investors are paying up for the assets that can deliver the upfront income."
With earnings season approaching, the question for many companies concerns just how much money they're going to make. Earnings are expected to rise 168 percent for the current quarter, compared with the 90 percent increase forecast earlier this year, said Joe Cooper, a research analyst with First Call, which tracks analysts' estimates.
"In the grand scheme of things, energy is expected to be the top performer for the first quarter," Cooper said of the earnings.
But exceptional profits don't necessarily mean exceptional share prices, as current stock performance illustrates. Multinational ChevronTexaco closed Thursday at $65.20, down from $103.56 in 1999. Lafayette independent Stone Energy Corp. closed at $32.03, less than half the level it held in 1999. New Orleans oil service company Tidewater Inc. closed at $29.30, compared with $52.15 two years ago.
Analysts point to the peculiarities of the recent price run-up, especially with crude oil. Oil prices soared in the weeks leading into the Iraq war, driven up by uncertainty over the Middle East, labor strife in Venezuela, and, more recently, the suspension of some production in Nigeria.
The cumulative effect is that oil supplies remain low by historical standards. However, many experts believe crude will still retreat soon due to a number of factors, including the sluggishness of the world economy. Predicting a speedy end to the war, some experts foresee oil potentially dropping to the high teens as the world assimilates millions of barrels of extra oil from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait pumped in case of a disruption.
"The prevailing belief is that oil is going under $20," Rosenberg said.
The outlook for natural gas generally is considered to be firmer. Although this winter's price spike was caused in part by the unusually cold weather, gas storage levels remain low by historical standards. Many energy companies only now are beginning to increase drilling, which likely portends a tight supply market even if the weather moderates in 2003.
Wall Street analysts predict a 2003 average natural gas price of $4.71, up from the $3.30 average in 2002. Analysts foresee natural gas trading at $4.27 in 2004, Cooper said. Higher natural gas prices are especially beneficial to energy independents and oil service companies because these firms can enjoy the profits that can come with higher gas prices but don't operate chemical plants and refineries that would require more of the costly fuels.
Houston-based Burlington Resources on Thursday cited lofty natural gas production volumes in alerting investors to potentially higher earnings. The company is using $79 million to repurchase 1.7 million shares. Following up on the news, Merrill Lynch raised its earnings projections and set a 12-month pricing objective of $50, up from $45.56.
Instead of the gas-rich shallow-water Gulf of Mexico, Burlington's production is coming from Canada, onshore U.S. sites and a variety of other prospects. The company sold most of its assets from the Gulf's continental shelf last year.
The count of natural gas land-based rigs jumped by 22 to 776, the highest level since November 2001. The pickup offshore has been far more sluggish, with the Gulf rig count near a 52-week low, according to a rig count by Baker Hughes, an oil service company.
Many analysts expect the offshore market to improve in the coming months.
"You're going to see activity strong this year and you're going to see oil service stocks doing well," predicts Bryan Dutt, a money manager with Ironman Energy Capital, a Houston hedge fund.
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John Biers can be reached at jbiers@timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3494.
Guzman wins award
By KARY BOOHER
kbooher@jacksonsun.com
Mar 28 2003
<a href=miva.jacksonsun.com>jacksonsun.com
Right-hander Angel Guzman, who likely will be in the Jaxx's starting rotation this year, was awarded to the first Billy Williams-Ron Santo Rookie of Spring Training Award.
Guzman had a nearly 1.20 ERA while in big-league camp as a non-roster invitee. He was signed by the Cubs in 1999 out of Venezuela and was 11-4 with a 2.19 ERA at the Cubs' two Single-A teams last year.
"He's really opened a lot of eyes in the baseball world," Cubs farm director Oneri Fleita said.
Oil prices creeping up again
Posted by click at 5:47 AM
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oil
USA Today
Posted 3/27/2003 10:38 PM
By Barbara Hagenbaugh and James R. Healey
Oil prices are rising again as concerns grow that the Iraq war will be longer than expected and that unrest in OPEC member Nigeria will lead to supply problems.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery rose $1.74 to $30.37 a barrel Thursday, a 6.1% increase. It was the second consecutive day of gains and the first time prices were above $30 since the war started.
But the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas slipped to $1.671, motorists' club AAA reported. That was down nearly a penny overnight — considered a big change — and is down from the record U.S. average of $1.722 per gallon set last week.
Analysts say oil prices will likely go higher — leading to a reverse in recent gas price declines — if more news from Iraq suggests the war might drag on or if it becomes clear the unrest in Nigeria, the fifth-largest source of U.S. oil imports, is more than temporary. Other issues, including low inventories and the switch to special-blend gas for summer, will also tend to push gasoline prices higher.
"There's just not enough oil produced elsewhere in the world to make up for all of those disruptions," says Stephen Brown, director of energy economics at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Brown says higher oil prices are likely acting as a drag on the economy. When consumers and businesses have to spend more on energy, they have less to spend in other parts of the economy or to hire new workers.
Oil output in Iraq, which normally pumps about 2 million barrels per day, has been halted. Key oil fields secured by British forces earlier this week will take three months to repair, United Kingdom Air Marshal Brian Burridge said Thursday. British forces found the 500 oil wells in disrepair and booby trapped with detonation devices.
In addition to the problems in Iraq, fighting between tribes in Nigeria has led to an approximately 40% cut in oil output in the country that exports little else. Oil giant Royal Dutch/Shell announced shipment delays Thursday as foreign oil firms said a truce among warring tribes would spell no quick return to oil fields after workers fled.
Markets have been shaky for months as unrest in Venezuela took much of that country's oil off the market. While production there seems to have come almost completely back, oil watchers are wondering if the South American nation can maintain output levels with the fewer workers it now has.
American Petroleum Institute chief economist John Felmy called the situation a "perfect storm" for prices.
Contributing: Donna Leinwand in Doha, Qatar, and wire reports
Rays no-hit Phillies--Zambrano, Backe and Sosa combine for no-hitter
<a href=mlb.mlb.com>By Paul C. Smith / MLB.com - CLEARWATER, Fla.
Victor Zambrano, Brandon Backe and Jorge Sosa combined for the Rays' first Major League no-hitter of any kind. The three pitchers shut down the Phillies in the Rays' 8-0 win Thursday night at Jack Russell Stadium.
Zambrano did not give up a hit or walk over five innings. He struck out five and hit two batters in his final start of the spring. He is scheduled to start the Rays' second game of the year.
"I felt very good today," Zambrano said. "I threw a lot of strikes and had good defense behind me."
Zambrano (2-1) has given up just five runs and 13 hits in 24 innings this spring.
"I've felt really good every time I pitched this spring," Zambrano said. "In my country (Venezuela), I worked very hard to get ready for the season. I especially worked on using both sides of the plate."
Backe pitched the sixth and seventh innings and Sosa closed out the last two innings in the Rays' first ever no-hitter, spring games or regular season. It was only the third spring no-hitter in the Majors since 1996.
"That was really nice pitching," manager Lou Piniella said. "Zambrano was really, really sharp. He throws three or four pitches for strikes and he goes right after hitters. And Sosa threw the ball well, too. Sosa, I really like the way he's thrown the ball out of the bullpen this spring."
Outfielder Jonny Gomes hit a home run in his first plate appearance of the spring, and made two impressive catches in left field in the final two innings to preserve the no-hitter.
Gomes, who has been assigned to Double-A Orlando, hammered his home run out to left with one out in the sixth inning with Javier Valentin and Rey Ordonez on base. Gomes, who hit 30 home runs at Single-A Bakersfield in 2002, was up from the Rays' minor league camp for the game.
The game was special for Gomes, who had a heart attack last December but has been cleared to resume his promising baseball career.
"It was definitely an emotional night for me," Gomes said. "Last Christmas Eve, I was in the hospital for five days with a shocker hooked between my legs in case I pulled the shutters and checked out."
Gomes said his family does not have a history of heart attacks but a valve to his heart was pinched and he didn't know what to think or do. He went a full day before going to the hospital.
"I ended up with a bruise worse than normal," Gomes said. "And they don't know why it happened, but I'm OK now."
Gomes said he would always remember his first game in the Majors, even if it was a Spring Training game.
"I'm going to keep the bat and everything else I can get my hands on," Gomes said.
Also for the Rays, Rocco Baldelli was 3-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored. Travis Lee had a two-run double in the first inning and Carl Crawford had an RBI single and stole his ninth base of the spring in the second inning. Ordonez had three hits and scored twice.
The Rays are 8-18 with two ties in the Grapefruit League.
Paul C. Smith is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.