South China Morning Post

War casualities: US troops from the 3rd Infantry Division carry a wounded Iraqi prisoner for treatment at a battalion aid centre on a captured airfield in southern Iraq after heavy fighting in Nasiriyah.

Pentagon says 300 Iraqis may be dead after battle

Up to 300 Iraqis may have been killed overnight (HK time) when they attacked the US Seventh Calvary near the town of Najaf, about 160km south of Baghdad, the Pentagon said.

Sandstorms hit Baghdad advance

Blinding sandstorms threaten to achieve what Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard have so far failed to do - hold up the march of coalition forces into Baghdad.

British forces plan to support any Basra uprising

The British military said overnight (HK time) it believed citizens of Basra were rising up against President Saddam Hussein, but an Iraqi minister denied a revolt was underway in Iraq's southern city.

Two British soldiers killed by 'friendly fire'

Two British tank crew members were killed by ''friendly fire'' from another British tank near Iraq's southern city of Basra, officials said overnight (HK time).

US television networks losing the fight against biased coverage

Media-watchers on both sides of the war have declared the Americans the losers. Embedded journalists and hi-tech equipment have so far not been able to deflect accusations that US television networks are presenting biased coverage.

Waiting for refugees in cruellest place on the planet

"This place looks like God roasted it," Raphael Mutiku said as we travelled through Badiyat ash Sham, the great desert that stretches from Jordan and Syria into Iraq.

Americans brace for a longer and bloodier conflict

News of coalition fatalities and troops held prisoner have changed Americans' expectations of the potential scale and tragedy of the Iraq conflict, a poll showed yesterday, as President George W. Bush prepared to ask Congress for a US$74.7 billion (HK$582.2 billion) war chest.

In halls of power and on the streets, opposition is muted

Despite wide public opposition to the war, China is the only permanent member of the United Nations Security Council that has not seen widespread protests.

America's 'war without suspense'

Alex Liebman was accosted last week in the cafeteria by a usually mild-mannered teacher here at Xiaoshi Middle School in Ningbo, Zhejiang. "Why is the US attacking Iraq? The US is trying to establish a new empire and set up hegemony over the whole world," he said. I struggled to swallow my rice before responding: "I oppose the war too. Please let me finish my food."

<a href=www.globes.co.il>More Zeev Klein   25 Mar 03   14:16

"International Investor's" did not refer to the possible ramifications the Iraq War and Benjamin Netanyahu’s appointment as minister of finance may have on Israel’s economy.

Israel’s position on international financial markets is deteriorating. Israel’s ranking fell to 45th place in " International Investor's" Country Credit Ratings for 2002, with 56.1 points out a possible 100. The new score is a 2.5-point drop in Israel’s rating for its economic performance in the past six months.

The rankings appear in the bi-annual journal’s March issue.

Israel’s ranking has slipped seven places in the past 30 months since the outbreak of the intifada and high-tech crisis in late 2000.

"International Investor's" did not refer to the possible ramifications the Iraq War and Benjamin Netanyahu’s appointment as minister of finance may have on Israel’s economy. Nor is there any specific reference to the government’s new economic plan.

The main losers from global economic crises in 2002 were Uruguay, Argentine, Venezuela, Brazil, and Japan, which lost between 17.4 and 3.9 points.

The main winners last year were Russia, South Korea, Afghanistan and Lithuania, which gained between 9.5 and 4.5 points.

Switzerland, Luxembourg, the US, the Netherlands, and Norway led the 2002 Country Credit Ratings with between 95.3 and 92.8 points.

The lowest ranked countries were Afghanistan, Congo, Iraq, and North Korea, with between 6.7 and 8.9 points.

Israel fell from fifth to sixth place among the Middle Eastern countries in the ratings table. Israel is behind Kuwait, Cyprus, Qatar, and Oman, and ahead of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.

Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on March 25, 2003

<a href=www.sfgate.com>OIL: Prices rise as war outlook darkens Verne Kopytoff, Chronicle Staff Writer Tuesday, March 25, 2003

Oil prices surged Monday for the first time in eight trading sessions as fears increased over a prolonged Iraqi war and turmoil in petroleum-rich Nigeria.

Traders were reacting to news over the weekend that the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq was encountering stiff resistance. If it continues, Iraq's oil industry may take longer to return to normal production than expected, analysts said.

In addition, pumping in Nigeria has been significantly cut because of sporadic battles between ethnic militants and the Nigerian government. A handful of companies, including ChevronTexaco of San Ramon, have curtailed production in that West African nation and evacuated employees.

"The odds of a very quick resolution in Iraq fell over the weekend, or at least perception," said George Beranek, manager of market analysis for PFC Energy, a consulting and research firm in Washington. "Nigeria is also part of it."

Crude prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange for May delivery jumped Monday to $28.66, up $1.70. They had declined nearly 25 percent over the past couple of weeks from near a 12-year high of $37, as traders anticipated a quick finish to the Iraqi war.

The volatile oil market has affected consumers, as increases in oil prices naturally lead to higher gasoline prices. On Monday, a gallon of unleaded fuel in San Francisco sold for an average of $2.27, just a penny shy of the all- time record set last week, according to AAA of Northern California.

Traders are worried about how much control U.S.-led forces have over the oil fields of southern Iraq. Officials previously said they had captured the fields. Now they are indicating that Iraqis are still a threat there.

Several oil wells in southern Iraq are still burning. A major oil field in northern Iraq has yet to be captured.

Before the war, Iraq exported an average of about 2 million barrels of crude a day. Those exports essentially stopped after the departure of the United Nations workers who oversaw Iraq's oil-for-food humanitarian program.

Also contributing to higher oil prices, analysts said, is unrest in Nigeria.

ChevronTexaco's Nigerian subsidiary said Sunday that it has evacuated 1,600 employees and cut production by 440,000 barrels a day in the West Niger Delta. ChevronTexaco has a 40 percent stake in the subsidiary.

Royal Dutch/Shell's Nigerian subsidiary also has cut production. Nigeria is the fifth-largest source of oil imports in the United States, supplying 5.9 percent of total imports.

Nigeria's oil woes come on top of a strike in Venezuela that damaged the petroleum industry there and caused world crude prices to jump. Venezuelan production has recovered somewhat since the strike began in December, but it is still short of normal levels.

John Kingston, global director for oil at Platt's, an energy information service in New York, said world oil inventories are tight and will probably remain that way in the near future. He added that the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries may actually cut production after the Iraq war is over because they fear a glut in the market.

"You've got to assume that the market is going to remain tight," Kingston said.

Also on Monday, Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., introduced a bill that would require the Federal Trade Commission to investigate any time gasoline prices increase by more than 20 percent in a three-month period. She has already asked the FTC to look into the current jump in prices for evidence of illegal manipulation.

A state probe into high gasoline, diesel and natural gas prices called for by Gov. Gray Davis is under way. The results are due this week.

E-mail Verne Kopytoff at vkopytoff@sfchronicle.com.

URL

Despite the Group Managing Director of the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation(NNPC), Mr. Jackson Gaius Obaseki’s promise that the fuel scarcity currently being experienced all over the country would abate by penultimate weekend, the contrary appeared to be the case as the expected 200,000 metric tonnes of premium motor spirit (petrol) has done little to mitigate the anguish of motorists and commuters.

FOR commuters and motorists alike, most of whom have almost forgotten the hassles associated with fuel scarcity, these past four weeks have indeed been trying. For just when Nigerians having enjoyed considerable stability in product supply in the past three and half years, were beginning to heave a sigh of relief that fuel scarcity and its attendant problems were now a thing of the past, long queues suddenly re-emerged at filling stations across the land. Often these fuel queues stretched for kilometres.

In Lagos, the latest fuel crisis as usual brought out the worst in motorists and filling stations attendants as most motorists in trying to procure fuel blocked the roads with their vehicles, thus resulting in traffic gridlocks while the attendants on their part, adopted several means of shortchanging customers. Street urchins also cashed in on the chaos at most filling stations to make brisk business.

At the Total Filling Station, Alakuko in Alagbado on Abeokuta Expressway, at the instance of the station’s management perhaps, pump attendants made brisk business. Motorcyclists were only allowed into the premises after paying a toll of N50 at the gate. This was aside the mandatory token of N50 to the attendant who sold the fuel. But as the motorcyclists (Okada riders) pointed out to the DAILY TIMES, “ it is better to part with this sum of money than to spend four to five hours at the station.

Motorists on their part, had to part with N200 and more to refuel their vehicles while noncompliant buyers were not obliged with fuel.

Moreover, a group of young men armed with jerry-cans of fuel were seen milling around the station, obviously looking for desperate motorists on the queue, who ended up parting with as much as N3000 for 25 litres. According to a motorist, Mr. Akinwale Gboyega, rather than stay endlessly on the queue and probably have his car dented in the process , he preferred to buy from the black market.

Strikingly, while many fuel stations lacked fuel for sale, hundreds of street urchins, otherwise known as ‘area boys’ were seen in different parts of the city peddling the scarce product though at exorbitant prices. For example, 50 litres of petrol which official price was N1300 was sold for N3500 while 25 litres, sold at N1,600 instead of N650.

As one of the ubiquitous fuel hawkers, Saheed, disclosed, their prohibitive price was determined by the extra charges collected by the fuel stations before it could be sold to them in jerry cans. For instance, the total cost of purchasing a 50-litre jerry can of petrol came to N2200, though the pump cost was N1600, thus, settling amounted to N800. Saying that they often operated from morning till late in the night, especially at filling stations with very long queues, Saheed said their customers were often affluent persons or those who were too busy to queue for fuel. He also claimed that some stations had adjusted their metres to reduce the quantity being sold to unsuspecting motorists.

But the area boys had the Police to worry about. Sometimes, the security men came round to seize their fuel while at other times, they (street urchins) bribed them to forestall seizure of their priced product, Saheed said.

Princess, a business woman, lamented that the current fuel crises was affecting her business hence she had to resort to the black market in order to be mobile. “ Last Monday, I was forced to buy 20 litres of petrol at the black market for N2000 due to the fact that I had an urgent supply to make to my client,” she said. When she spoke to the DAILY TIMES, she claimed to have been on the fuel queue at the station since 6.30 a.m., thereby, foregoing the day’s activities.

Expectedly, commuters are the ones who bore the brunt of the hassles being experienced by commercial bus drivers to procure premium spirit. A driver on the Iyana-Ipaja/Ikeja route, Babajide, bluntly stated that , “this is our time to make money; we queue for fuel for several hours, yet we have to pay the Police, the touts and also deliver to the owner of the bus. Commuters must face the reality.”

Similarly, a commercial bus driver, Mr. Oludare Adekunle, said he had been on the queue since the early hours of the day having exhausted the fuel he bought three days ago. If eventually, he got fuel, commuters would have to pay for the wasted time on the queue since he had to deliver a certain amount of money to his boss. It was such situation that made most commercial drivers to hike transportation fares, Adekunle explained.

A commuter, who resided in Gowon Estate, Egbeda, a sprawling suburb on the outskirts of Lagos and worked in Victoria Island, lamented that ever since the resurgence of fuel queues, he now spent between N400 and N600 daily on transport. Previously, a bus ride from Egbeda o Obalende, CMS cost either N80 or N100, but given the current fuel crisis, commercial bus operators now charged between N150 and N200 depending on the crowd. Worse still, there was a Monday when commuters on that route had to cough out as much as N250 to Obalande.”

Parents also complained of having to spend more on their children’s transport fare to their various schools. One Mr. Omotunde, complained that, one of his children fell ill last week due to the long distance he trekked from Egbeda to Ikotun, where his school was located because he was unable to struggle with fellow commuters for the few available buses on the routes.

It does not appear that Nigerians are comfortable with the excuses being thrown up by the Federal Government and the relevant officials in the sector on the actual causes of the crises. As Mr. Ojo asserted, this was what he considered the most frustrating aspect of the crisis. “How can one suffer for what he did not know and for how long, he cannot say,” he asked. Initially, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Jerry Gana, had linked the current crises to detractors who wanted to sink the ship of the state.

However, after several weeks of speculation on the causes of the shortage, President Olusegun Obasanjo in far away Damaturu, Yobe State, traced the crisis to the war between America and Iraq, which made oil prices go up. He also said that the strike of oil workers in Venezuela contributed to the increase in the price on the international market. The Presidentc further stated that they thought the problem had been resolved, apparently in reference to the temporary abatement of the scarcity.

Investigations by the DAILY TIMES revealed that the officials of the petroleum ministry did not react promptly to the dynamics of international oil price. The surge in oil prices last month brought the price to an all time peak of about $40 per barrel. This increase sparked off a disagreement between the major marketers and the NNPC. International media reports indicate that oil prices are usually agreed upon two months ahead of its supply. For instance, in anticipation of a surge in oil prices in the event of war, Saudi Arabia the largest oil producer said it had secured 14 extra tankers to ship an additional 29.9 million barrels to the US, which was expected to be delivered in May. During the last OPEC meeting, it also said it was pumping more oil to meet the world’s demand, by 1.5 million barrels per day. The same cushioning was also made by the International Energy Agency ( IEA). These explained why oil prices slumped to as low as 31.16 dollars per barrel according to its Director, Claude Mandel.

Reacting to this development, the President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr. John Odeyemi, asked the government to increase the price of fuel. As he argued, given that most of the fuel used in the country was imported, then , the difference in local pump price and the cost of importation constituted a huge deficit on the government. As such, it had become imperative to adjust the price.

Arguing that a lasting solution to this problem can be engineered by the relevant authorities ,Odeyemi canvassed for more commitment in the repair of the refineries to check the perennial crisis associated with price increase, while suggesting that the time had come for the government to enter into a barter arrangement with oil firms in Nigeria. Such arrangement will see these functions as a liaison with their relevant branches overseas that could receive and refine fuel for the country at a lower price and shipped in on a special import duty basis.

“The Federal Government can ask Agip, Mobil or others to take oil abroad to refine and bring it back under a special arrangement,” he argued.

But such responsibility may not be convenient to the government considering the impasse that had dogged the current fuel crises. For instance, while the major marketers are insisting that only a hike in the price to N37 would determine their future participation in importing refined products, NNPC, the organisation in charge of importing the fuel into the country, has maintained it would not succumb to any price increase.

US, Iraq face-off KAYODE EKUNDAYO

WITH Bagdad under heavy attack by the United States, Nigeria’s age-long dream of raising its daily production quota to 3,000 barrels per day may be realised, amidst fear that the fuel crisis across the country may persist.

Nigeria, like other Members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had, in the last few years been lobbying the cartel for a redistribution output quota in line with its objective of attaining a daily production of 3,000 bpd and 30 billion barrels reserves by 2003.

The current attack against Iraq, the third largest crude oil producer and the disruption of supply from Kuwait coupled with Venezuela’s output suspension due to on-going industrial strike, gave a ray of hope to Nigeria that the crisis, if continued, may lead to quota increase to as much as 3,000bpd.

Although OPEC agreed last week before the commencement of the war to leave formal output of 24.5 million bpd in place despite fears that an attack on Iraq could cut off its 1.7 million bpd exports.

Kuwait had already said it may need to shut up to 700,000 bpd of production from fields near its northern boarder with Iraq, where US troops are poised to invade.

Presidential Adviser on Petroleum Matters, Rilwanu Lukman, said with the war, the cartel was ready to drop everything and either hold a meeting where they could agreed to raise production or via telephone if required.

At the cartel last meeting held in Vienna, Austria two weeks ago, Lukman said Nigeria has the capacity to sustain 2.5 million bpd in the space of a few weeks from the current 1.2 million.

“We have the potential to increase to 2.8 and 2.9 million bpd but this is not immediate. Call for quotas increase among members began last year and members are now debating what formula to use, but there was no timetable for the new divisions,” he said.

With the increase in drilling technology innovation around the world, multi-national oil firms in the country, namely Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) ChevronTexaco, TotalFinaElf, Nigeria Agip Oil Company (NAOC) the current nation’s quota.

Their hindrance has been quota restriction which reduce output capacity.

For instance, SPDC, with daily production capacity of 1.3 million barrels, produces an average of 840-900,000

With the crisis in Iraq, international market is under tension as more consumer nations scramble for products to sustain their economy.