Adamant: Hardest metal
Tuesday, March 25, 2003

Spanish court sends Chavez case to The Hague

CORRECTED 24 Mar 2003 21:16:44 GMT

MADRID, March 24 (Reuters) - A Spanish judge threw out a terrorism case against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Monday because he had immunity from Spanish prosecution, but the case was passed on to the International Criminal Court.

A group of Spanish citizens brought the case against Chavez, alleging terrorism and crimes against humanity based on violence during a protest in Venezuela last April, in which three Spaniards were injured and one Spaniard died.

The allegations against Chavez were presented by lawyers acting for some of the families of at least 19 people who were shot dead during a huge anti-government march on April 11 that came close to the presidential palace in Caracas.

The killings triggered a short-lived coup against the populist president by rebel military officers. Foes of Chavez, who survived the coup, accuse the Venezuelan leader of deploying armed supporters and troops against the April 11 protesters.

Chavez and his ministers strongly deny these accusations and say opposition gunmen started the shooting, in which more than 100 people were also wounded.

The case also refers to injuries suffered by two Spaniards in Venezuela on November 4, when more than a dozen people were wounded, several by gunfire, when thousands of Chavez opponents demanding an immediate referendum on his rule were attacked in Caracas by supporters of the left-wing president.

Judge Fernando Andreu Merelles, an investigating magistrate at the High Court, said in an 80-page ruling that Chavez enjoyed the extraterritorial immunity from prosecution that is granted to heads of state, diplomats and other high-ranking officials.

However, the judge said that although the case could not be heard in Spain, it would be passed on to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague under provisions of the Statute of Rome for its consideration.

Court documents did not give further details. --Additional reporting by Pascal Fletcher in Caracas

Nigerian Unrest May Affect ChevronTexaco Earnings

<a href=www.smartmoney.com>Dow Jones Newswires March 24, 2003 By David Bogoslaw

NEW YORK -- With few options to make up for production lost from the shuttering of oil and natural gas facilities in the Niger Delta, ChevronTexaco Corp.'s (CVX) second-quarter earnings could take a hit of as much as 20 cents a share.

"Every 3% of their volume that is up or down impacts quarterly earnings by nine cents per share," said Tyler Dann, an analyst at Banc of America Securities.

Chevron Nigeria Limited, a unit of the San Ramon, Calif., integrated oil company, said Sunday it was relocating workers and had shut in 440,000 barrels of oil a day in production in the Western Nigeria Delta in response to ethnic tension in the country.

Amid civil unrest between rival ethnic groups, the Ijaws and Itsekiri, leading up to April parliamentary and presidential elections, the Ijaws threatened to blow up multinational oil installations they said they'd captured in retaliation for government military raids, the New York Times reported Monday.

"We aren't anticipating any sizable new field additions in the second quarter," Mr. Dann said. "Most of that production lost won't be regained until this conflict is resolved."

But he said he wouldn't revise earnings estimates for the quarter until he had a better idea of how long the shut-in would last. While he doesn't own stock in the company, he said Banc of America does investment banking for ChevronTexaco.

The company will potentially face a double whammy in the second quarter, however, from reduced production volume and significantly lower oil prices now that the war with Iraq has begun, warned Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Fahnestock & Co.

But he said it's "highly unlikely this will last long enough to have a meaningful impact on the earnings of any of (the) companies" active in the Niger Delta.

Shell Development Petroleum Co., a unit of Royal Dutch/Shell (RD) in Nigeria, has shut in 370,000 barrels a day, and French oil producer TotalFinaElf SA (TOT) closed down 7,500 barrels a day from its Nigerian operations, the companies said Monday.

The sole bright spot in the second quarter will be the downstream segment, where an increase in refining margins of $1 a barrel would more than offset the financial impact of lost production in Nigeria, Mr. Gheit predicted.

Mr. Gheit said that while he owns Chevron shares, Fahnestock has no investment-banking relationship with the company.

The shut-in of 440,000 barrels of day includes ChevronTexaco's deepwater platforms that feed into the Escravos export terminal and storage facility, said Fred Gorell, a company spokesman. The Escravos terminal is one of the installations threatened by Ijaws.

But Mr. Gorell said he wouldn't speculate on the potential impact on earnings or how much of the lost production ChevronTexaco could offset with increases at its other facilities.

Shell's shut-in affects only the swamp regions, not its one deepwater platform, according to Simon Buerk, a group spokesman for the Royal Dutch/Shell Group.

Mr. Buerk anticipates a rapid return to normalcy, contingent on the safety of Shell's staff and contractors.

If the Nigerian operations were to be shut-in for a full 90 days, ChevronTexaco would likely lose between $75 million and $100 million in pretax operating earnings, based on an average price of $27 a barrel for the year, said Mr. Gheit, the Fahnestock analyst.

ChevronTexaco's exposure in Nigeria is limited to its 40% stake in the delta's production facilities under a production-sharing agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp.

"The fact that the government has a stake makes it likely to be resolved. This is their lifeblood," Mr. Gheit said.

Mr. Dann, the Banc of America analyst, agreed that the Nigerian government has a significant interest in facilities being reopened as quickly as possible.

Still, Nigeria is more vulnerable to ongoing production disruptions than Venezuela, for example, due to long-standing ethnic and religious conflicts in the country, which aren't likely to disappear, he added.

ChevronTexaco recently said it would scale back its production growth expectation to 1.2% for 2003 from a previous target between 2% and 3%.

Although the potential bite into earnings is something of a red flag for investors, it's less significant than if it were the company's own doing, Mr. Dann said. However, investors might become less forgiving the longer the disruption lasts, he added.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it would make up the shortfall from Nigeria, one of its members. With most other OPEC members at or approaching maximum production capacity, it would probably fall to Saudi Arabia to raise its output, Mr. Dann said.

  • David Bogoslaw, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5289 (END) Dow Jones Newswires 03-24-03 1308ET

High prices at the pump battle Susanville

<a href=www.lassennews.com>Where is Lassen County? Posted on Monday, March 17 @ 10:15:10 PST By Janine Fairbank Staff Writer

In Susanville, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was about $2.12 as of Friday, March 14, and some say the price could even go higher. Bill Harkness, plant manager for Staub Energy in Susanville said many factors caused the recent rise which affect a commodities market such as the oil industry.

Harkness, who has been in the petroleum business for 17 years, three with Staub, said most crude oil is bought from the MidEast, Mexico and Venezuela. Because of the long-lasting strike halting drilling operations in Venezuela, which supplies 15 percent of the world's oil, he said there is definitely a shortage of crude oil, which raises the price.

Crude oil is used to make products such as gasoline, heating oil, motor oil and propane, which is in high demand right now, said Harkness.

Tempering War Jitters

The Motley Fool By Bill Mann (TMF Otter) March 24, 2003

It should go unsaid that the coalition invasion in Iraq will alter the course of history in a substantial way. Where a tyrant with alleged weapons of mass destruction stands today, there will be... something else in his place. The outcome is not in doubt. What is in doubt is what events will take place during the military conflict. As investors try to get their bearings based upon the latest reports from the ground, we ask a simple question: Why?

In 1996, business took me to Kuwait. As it turned out, I had a free day while I was there. A free day in Kuwait may not seem like that great a deal -- sorta like a free ticket to Detroit. But I was game to make a good day of it, so I rented a car and tooled around the country.

During the tour, I came across a memorial in honor of the countries that had committed troops and resources to help liberate Kuwait from Iraq five years before. It's a bizarre little memorial, in an out-of-the way part of Kuwait City. The front is a destroyed Iraqi tank surrounded by 40 flagpoles, one for each country. Lettering in Arabic and English boldly proclaimed Kuwait's gratitude, stating, "We will never forget."

This seemed odd because the monument itself, which by deduction couldn't have been more than five years old at the time, was in disrepair. The flagpoles were empty, the facade crumbling. At least the tank was the same, because presumably it was dilapidated before it ever became part of the memorial. I recall thinking, "Wow. They've already forgotten."

Even if Kuwait's monument maintenance skills are suspect, the country has not forgotten at all. Kuwait has played a central role in the drive to remove Saddam Hussein from power. I found it interesting that when the U.S. government kept rolling out its new, improved list of the "coalition of the willing" last week, Kuwait remained absent until the weekend.

This, though Kuwait allowed hundreds of thousands of foreign troops to station in its territory for the sole purpose of invading Iraq. That's not the sign of ambivalence. Kuwait, like no other country, knows full well the terror of living in the shadow of Saddam Hussein.

No other country except Iraq, that is.

But in my mind, that memorial is emblematic. Nations and people have built monuments to battles and warriors since the beginning of time, seeking to memorialize the fact that history's path had been altered. Certainly, it seems nigh upon impossible to consider a world in which Kuwait was the 17th province of Iraq for the last 12 years. Yet without the Gulf War, that's precisely what would have happened.

Still, already more than six years ago, looking at that monument, you got the feeling that the Kuwaitis thought of the Gulf War as a historical fact -- a painful one, for sure. This is human nature. You can't live in a reality that doesn't exist.

We hear the question constantly: How should people handle their investments in time of war? My response is the same. Soon enough, this war will be a historical fact. Recognize that millions of people are analyzing how things will be affected by the outcome, and most will come to similar conclusions at the same time. In most cases, though, the conclusion of this war will have minimal economic impact on companies.

It may seem like the market should jump up or down based on the day's circumstances, but if you think about it, the market's movement is largely a psychological reaction to things that are unpredictable at their essence.

Mr. Market goes to war The war to remove Saddam from power began in earnest on Thursday. From a financial perspective, the stock, bond, and commodity markets responded in a way that I could only describe as "euphoric." The Dow jumped by more than 8.4% for the week, with broader indexes turning in similar gains. Oil prices dropped more than 30%, from $40 down as low as $26.90.

Then, today, the dollar dropped, oil jumped, and the U.S. indexes fell sharply, as Iraqi troops began to fight back. What in the world did people expect? No one in any position of authority has claimed that this would be a fast war.

On Saturday, I read an article stating investors were fleeing "safe-haven investments," while -- according to an article at the same publication-- yesterday's actions encouraged "some investors to buy safe-haven investments."

The oil market provides a prime example. Yes, we're happy that for the time being, there have been precious few wells set alight by Iraqi forces loyal to Saddam. And for the time being, the potential for rogue attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil processing facilities seems more remote. But oil prices didn't shoot up to $40 per barrel based solely on the potential for calamity in Iraq. Two other big oil producers, Venezuela and Nigeria, are undergoing their own crises, which have shut down oil production. Conditions have deteriorated, not improved, in the last week. Combined, Venezuela and Nigeria provide about 10% of the oil imported into the U.S. Prolonged interruption of these supplies could have profound effects on the economy.

As the reports from over this weekend attest in grim fashion, it's not like peace has broken out all over Iraq. Coalition forces have a great deal of work ahead of them, and the cost could be staggering.

The outcome is not in doubt. But... Peter Lynch once said that if you spend 13 minutes per year thinking about how geopolitical events will influence your investing, you've wasted at least 12 minutes. I think that dramatically overstates the case. We should probably spend approximately four minutes per year thinking about major geopolitical issues, with the war on terror and Middle Eastern security topping the list.

For example, now might not be the best time to invest in French oil and gas company Total Fina Elf (NYSE: TOT), given the potential for its loss of contracts in Iraq and the fact that its facilities in Nigeria are among those shut down at the moment.

On the other hand, it might be a perfect time to invest in Total. Maybe the stock is trading at a discount at present because it's a French company, and that just doesn't wash these days. The point is, the challenges and opportunities for Total in regard to Iraq are well known. What can't be quantified is what happens next.

Perhaps that's what drives the market batty during times of such high significance and uncertainty. We know what the outcome will be in Iraq. Saddam Hussein's government is finished. What we don't know is how it will happen, and what events, be they catastrophic or beneficial, will take place in between.

This may seem a fatalistic attitude. It's not. Companies may not operate in environments that don't presently exist. But at the same time, the economic environment as it exists today could be gone tomorrow. The investor's task is not to guess on the next economic or geopolitical event -- something even the experts are incapable of. The task is to find companies that offer the potential for economic growth over the long haul, attached to stocks where this potential for growth is not fully priced in.

We regard the events in Iraq with trepidation. Many of us (myself included) have friends and loved ones risking their lives executing the liberation of Iraq from Saddam Hussein. To those serving, the sentiments of that memorial in Kuwait are accurate. We will never forget your courage or your sacrifice.

But from an economic standpoint, it won't be long before the world is a very different place. Some believe the completion of the war will return a great deal of confidence to the American economy. Others look at the fact that companies and individuals are still in debt up to their gills and think that the "visibility" some so crave may not offer much solace.

The nature of the economy is not nostalgic in any way. We can't make things better simply by pretending it's 1999 and the bingeing is still on. And a few years from now, when the economy has righted itself (again, I don't know when, but I know that it will), we won't push ourselves into recession simply by recalling the events of early 2003.

In an economic sense, we will forget the dark days of 2003. It cannot be otherwise. Reacting to each ebb and flow of the war with Iraq, in this regard, doesn't make much sense.

Fool on.

Bill Mann (TMFOtter on the Fool discussion boards)

NetUno unfazed by market situation in Venezuela

<a href=www.latintrade.com>NetUno

03/24/2003 - Source: Business News Americas (BNamericas.com) (BNamericas.com) - Venezuelan multiservice provider NetUno expects to double its basic telephony client base and see continued Ebitda growth this year, despite the country's fragile political and economic situation, NetUno marketing VP Alberto Scharffenorth told BNamericas.

The company billed almost US$40mn in 2002 and registered 50% growth in Ebitda, Scharffenorth said, adding that NetUno ended 2002, effectively its first year as a basic telephony provider, with 4,000 residential clients. However, he doubted Ebitda growth for 2003 would be as impressive as last year.

Corporate uptake of basic telephony service was also satisfactory given the difficulties of the last year, he said.

NetUno's networks cover about 500,000 homes in 10 cities in addition to 300 corporate buildings in the Caracas business district, he said, adding the residential network has two-way capability in an area covering just over 40,000 homes.

The company's cable TV business was stable in 2002, with a year-end count of 110,000 subscribers, and Scharffenorth expects marginal growth this year, although Internet access should grow satisfactorily.

Scharffenorth expects 2003 to be a very difficult year, and accordingly NetUno will invest primarily in upgrades of existing infrastructure this year to expand basic telephony coverage.

The key elements that have set the economic climate for 2003 were the two-month general strike earlier this year and unemployment as a result; 120% growth in the exchange rate in the last year, bringing the dollar to 1,600 bolivares; and the indefinite closure of the currency markets on January 3. Looking at the evolving local telephony landscape, Scharffenorth also said he expects mobile operator Telcel BellSouth to effectively join Cantv (NYSE: VNT) as a second basic telephony incumbent as it rolls out its wireless local loop network.

NetUno has six fiber rings in Caracas, plus rings in Valencia, Maracaibo, Barquisimeto, Maracay, San Cristobal, Merida, Puerto Cabello, Guarenas and Guatire. Over the last two years the company has invested in improving the corporate network's quality; rather than expansion, the focus has been on adapting it to the most popular platforms, such as frame relay, ATM and MPLS.

The company's principal shareholders include the Merrill Lynch Global Emerging Fund; Newbridge Vencable Partners - a joint venture between Texas Pacific Group, the Andean Development Corporation (CAF) and the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC); Wave Transnational; IDS/American Express; and ZB Wired of Grupo Zubillaga.