Marin? Tuesday March 25, 5:19 AM

Venezuelan Ambassador to the U.S. Bernardo Alvarez said Venezuela has been talking to many companies interested in using its crude to help fill the SPR. "What's important is that we have the political will to contribute," Alvarez said.

The ambassador said Venezuela plans to discuss its production levels with the U.S. Energy Information Administration to try to persuade the statistical agency its oil output has recovered to pre-December levels.

Marin said PdVSA is in talks with refinery services company UOP LLC and it's getting technical assistance from Mitsubishi Corp. (J.MIB) to resume full operations at the El Palito refinery. He said that plans for a liquefied natural gas export development by Royal Dutch/Shell Group (RD) and Mitsubishi remain "very serious."

Marin described the loss since November of about 17,000 PdVSA staff, or 43% of the prior workforce, as largely complementing the company's prior plans to downsize, but he said he would have preferred not being forced to restructure the company by December's labor walkouts.

Among structural changes the oil monopoly has made are reducing its Caracas corporate headquarters to no more than 400 staff and shifting responsibilities to its eastern and western producing regions, he said. PdVSA is forming a sales division in the east to handle all crude oil marketing and another in the west to handle all refined products marketing, he said.

Marin said he expects Venezuelan crude oil production to reach about 3.1 million b/d over the next few months. Venezuela has an understanding within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to produce above its quota of 2.819 million b/d to make up for the exports it lost in December and January.

-By Campion Walsh, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9291; campion.walsh@dowjones.com

<a href=www.zwire.com>NEPA News March 24, 2003

Janet Kelly, editor in chief of The Daily Journal newspaper and a political analyst, has died. She was 56. Kelly, a native of Philadelphia, was found dead Monday in Caracas. The cause of death was under investigation.

A graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Kelly had lived in Venezuela for more than 20 years.

Kelly served as dean of Public Policy at the Institute of Higher Administration Studies in Caracas, where she had been a professor since 1982. There, she strengthened the institution's curriculum, research programs and publications in public policy.

In February, Kelly led a group that purchased The Daily Journal, Caracas' English-language newspaper.

Kelly was considered one of Venezuela's most respected political analysts. She wrote numerous books, academic articles and newspaper columns on Venezuelan politics, and she served on the board of the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce.

Kelly is survived by two children, Juan Pablo and Daniel Escobar.

<a href=ogj.pennnet.com>Oil & Gas Journal Sam Fletcher Senior Writer

HOUSTON, Mar. 24 -- Energy futures prices continued to plummet Friday, with confident traders selling off long positions on reports that US-led forces had secured oil fields in Iraq. But oil prices rebounded early Monday in the London market, with news that Iraqi troops mounted a strong resistance to Allied troops over the weekend.

A press conference planned Monday in one captured Iraqi oil field was canceled by the US military because of danger from Iraqi forces.

"Not nearly safe" Reuters news service reported Monday that fighting had driven out civilian well control specialists who had been brought in to extinguish well fires in Iraq's Rumaila field. Reuters quoted Brian Krause, vice-president and senior well control specialist for Houston-based Boots & Coots International Well Control Inc. as saying: "It's not nearly as safe as they said it was. We're kind of sitting ducks out there."

British military sources earlier reported almost all Iraqi oil facilities were mined or booby-trapped.

In its daily internet update, the US Energy Information Administration reported, "The US military has stepped up security in the vicinity of the Rumaila oilfield on Monday after reports of armed Iraqis in the vicinity, but a US military spokesman stressed that 'they won't be able to destroy the wells.'"

EIA said all Iraqi oil exports have halted, "with the last ship having loaded oil from storage tanks at Turkey's port of Ceyhan last Thursday. With the departure of (United Nations) staff from Iraq, the UN oil-for-(aid) program is effectively on hold. Also, no oil is leaving Iraq's Persian Gulf port of Mina al-Bakr. Most of the oil production and pipeline infrastructure in the south is now under coalition control. A small number of oil well fires have been confirmed, but overall damage appears to have been minimal."

Market "too complacent" In a strongly worded report Monday, Paul Horsnell, head energy analyst for J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. in London, charged, "The oil market has become too complacent about the war, its risks, and the risks of the postwar situation."

He said, "Oil markets fell Friday on unconfirmed (and since then unrepeated) reports that US Special Forces have secured Kirkuk oil field (in northern Iraq). Given the sheer size of Kirkuk field, we do not find it credible that all the Kirkuk wells could possibly be secure."

More important, Horsnell said, "The world oil industry is currently running very short in terms of discretionary inventory cover. In the US in particular, crude oil inventories (are) running close to minimum operating levels." At the same time, he said, "The US is now entering a period in which crude oil runs rise seasonally."

Horsnell said, "In all, the system needs an oil surplus to, first, stop the current inventory falls, more surplus to meet the increase in refinery runs, and then even more surplus to provide some cushion away from the rocks of low inventory cover."

World markets are depending on the other 10 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries—particularly Saudi Arabia—to make up any shortfalls in oil supplies resulting from the war in Iraq.

However, Horsnell noted, the recent drop in oil prices "has already taken prices to precisely where Saudi Arabia wants them, i.e., within the OPEC target band. Further, some traders seem to be seriously thinking that they could attempt to push prices below the bottom of the target band, i.e., precisely where Saudi Arabia does not want them."

Under those circumstances, Horsnell said, "We would not expect very many of the Saudi barrels in inventory to actually make it to market, and in addition we would expect the level of Saudi production to be scaled back significantly."

Nigerian crisis Meanwhile, the OPEC news agency reported Monday that Nigeria's oil industry "is facing its worst crisis in recent times as a result of an escalation of political violence in the Warri area and other parts of the Niger Delta region."

Chevron Nigeria Ltd., a subsidiary of ChevronTexaco Inc., said Sunday it was forced to shut in 440,000 b/d of its total Nigerian production of 450,000 b/d. The company last week declared force majeure after shutting in 140,000 b/d. The Royal Dutch/Shell Group and TotalFinaElf SA also have been forced to shut in production, jumping the total amount of disrupted Nigerian production to 600,000-800,000 b/d, EIA reported Monday.

Several sources reported Ijaw tribal fighters have taken over many of the production and infrastructure facilities in the Bayelsa state.

"In the words of one of their leaders, 'We'll blow up these flow stations and blast the pipelines. We will take Nigeria 20 years backward.'" Horsnell reported. "Nigeria seems to be doing a pretty good job at going many years backward already, but the Ijaw threat appears to be a serious one."

Chávez blasts Allied "aggression" In his weekly radio program Sunday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez said his country "joins the peoples of the world and the majority of governments of the world that reject the aggression against the people of Iraq." He urged UN Secretary Gen. Kofi Annan "to speak out and reject the aggression against the people of Iraq. That cannot be tolerated."

A founder and charter member of OPEC, Venezuela was one of the nearest and, before the recent general strike, largest suppliers of oil to the US market. Government officials claim the country has restored its oil production to more than 3 million b/d, but former Petroleos de Venezuela SA officials claim current production is actually 2.4 million b/d.

At any rate, Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said over the weekend that his country and other OPEC members are not planning to increase oil production.

Ramirez denied "rumors" that OPEC had authorized members to increase production to maximum capacity to offset lost production from Iraq and other sources. "At the last conference of OPEC ministers, held in Vienna, it was agreed not to increase the production ceiling—that is to say that there would be no oil production increases, and maintain the limit of 24.5 million b/d, (excluding Iraq)," he said.

Market prices The May contract for North Sea Brent oil lost $1.15 to $24.35/bbl Friday on the International Petroleum Exchange in London, with prices falling near the close of trade on expectations of a short, successful war in Iraq. However, that contract was trading at $25.55/bbl early Monday on IPE, up $1.25 from Friday's close, on new evidence that the war may not be over as swiftly as anticipated. The April natural gas contract lost 2.2¢ to the equivalent of $2.73/Mcf Friday on IPE.

The new near-month May contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes fell by $1.21 to $26.91/bbl Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The June contract was down $1.09 to $26.18/bbl. Heating oil for April delivery plunged 6.88¢ to 75.56¢/gal. Unleaded gasoline for the same month dropped 5.74¢ to 85.25¢/gal.

The April natural gas contract lost 17.8¢ to $5.13/Mcf Friday on NYMEX. It was "undermined by a soft physical market and further weakness in crude oil futures despite long-term concerns about record low inventories," said analysts at Enerfax Daily.

The average price for OPEC's basket of seven benchmark crudes fell by $1.70 to $24.81/bbl Friday.

For the entire week, however, the OPEC basket price averaged $28.42/bbl, down $4.30/bbl from the previous week's average.

So far this year, the OPEC basket price has averaged $30.99/bbl, up from $24.36/bbl for all of 2002.

Contact Sam Fletcher at samf@ogjonline.com

<a href=www.ascribe.org>Ascribe Mon Mar 24 12:40:07 2003 Pacific Time

       WOODS HOLE, Mass., March 24 (AScribe Newswire) -- New analysis of sediment samples from the southern Caribbean indicate that severe droughts occurred at the same time as the known collapse of the Mayan civilization. In a study in the March 14 issue of the journal Science, lead author Gerald Haug of Geoforschungszentrum (GFZ) in Potsdam, Germany, together with Konrad Hughen of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and colleagues report that sediments from the Cariaco Basin in northern Venezuela clearly show a dry spell across the Caribbean region starting in the seventh century and lasting for more than 200 years.

       The study looked at titanium concentration in undisturbed sediments recovered by the Ocean Drilling Program. Titanium varies with input from rivers and rainfall patterns over northern tropical South America, with titanium decreasing with decreasing rainfall. The international team focused on sediments from 750 AD to 950 AD, the period when the Classic Maya civilization collapsed in the lowlands of the Yucatan Peninsula. The data show a clear link between the chronology of regional droughts and the demise of the culture.

       Multi-year droughts in the region occurred at approximately 810, 860 and 910 AD and are believed to have placed enough strain on resources in the region to contribute to the demise of the civilization. The Maya flourished for about 1,000 years and had a peak population of more than one million. They built pyramids and elaborate cities with irrigation systems on the Yucatan, now part of Mexico. They depended on a seasonally consistent rainfall to support agriculture. Although some cities were repopulated at various times, many of the cities were abandoned in the 9th century AD.

       "The resolution of many paleoclimate records has limited us in the past from documenting a clear link between climate change and the detailed, often complex evolution of some of the great cultures around the world," Hughen says. "Evidence of long periods of drought had been found previously in sediments from lakes in Guatemala, but the resolution was not sufficient to identify the three phases of abandonment known from historical data. Our records have annual resolution so we can measure both the timing and the durations of the drought periods that caused each incremental collapse."

       How this once great civilization collapsed has been the subject of continued debate. Paleoclimatologists have developed an increasingly accurate record of climate change for the past few thousand years, covering the same period in which human societies developed and flourished. Until recently, archaeologists and historians lacked information on short-term climate change, but now high-resolution records from ice cores, tree rings and some deep sea sediments provide evidence that climate shifts often coincided with sudden changes in human history.

       Hughen, an assistant scientist in the Institution's Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, said the sediment records show a dry period beginning about 1,200 years ago that was punctuated by periods of three to nine years each when there was little or no rainfall. Each event placed more stress on the civilization, leading to a collapse of a portion of the population each time. The remaining population could not survive the last severe drought at about 910 AD.

       Archeological data show that the Mayan communities in the southern and central lowlands collapsed first, while those in the northern highlands lasted for another century or so, possibly because they had access to more ground water resources. In the end, however, they couldn't survive the final dry period.

       The study was conducted by Gerald Haug of Eidgenossiche Technische Hochschule (ETH) in Zurich, Switzerland, who is currently at Geoforschungszentrum (GFZ) in Potsdam, Germany, Detlef Gunther of ETH in Zurich, Switzerland, Larry Peterson of the University of Miami, Daniel Sigman of Princeton University, Konrad Hughen of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and Beat Aeschlimann of ETH in Switzerland. Their work was supported by the Schweizer Nationalfonds (SNF) in Switzerland, the US National Science Foundation (NSF), and by British Petroleum and Ford Motor Company through the Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative.

       Related Links:        Ocean Drilling Program: www.oceandrilling.org        Paleoceanography at WHOI: www.whoi.edu        ETH Home Page: www.ethz.ch GFZ Home Page www.gfz-potsdam.de Schweizer        Nationalfonds www.snf.ch NSF Home Page: www.nsf.gov CMI Home Page: www.princeton.edu percent7Ecmi        Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Media Relations: www.whoi.edu/media       -30- AScribe - The Public Interest Newswire / 510-653-9400 www.ascribe.org

<a href=www.hpj.com>High Plains Tuesday, March 25, 2003  Good Morning!   We feel it in our pocketbooks every day. Gasoline and other energy prices have been on the rise. In mid-March, regular gasoline prices reached a record high of $1.73 per gallon. Prices are 40 percent higher than last year at this time, according to this week's public policy brief from Roy Frederick, Public Policy Specialist, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Many factors have contributed to recent price hikes. A petroleum workers' strike in Venezuela, the buildup to war in Iraq and operating problems at some U.S. refineries lead the list.

More fundamentally, we must acknowledge our ever-growing dependence on foreign oil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently estimated this year's domestic demand at just over 20 million barrels per day. Of this total, less than 6 million barrels are expected to come from our own production. Never before has the gap between usage and production been so wide.

By comparison, worldwide petroleum demand this year is estimated at 77 million barrels per day. Thus, the United States, a country with 4 percent of the world's population, accounts for 26 percent of the worldwide petroleum market.

In a time of international unrest, America's skewed share of the worldwide oil market could work both for and against us. On the positive side, some big oil suppliers, such as Saudi Arabia, know that their own economies depend on U.S. oil purchases. They are reluctant to allow political differences to disrupt cash flows into their own treasuries.

At the same time, Frederick wrote, the United States can hardly feel smug depending on others as much as we do for a critical resource like oil. Even a 10 percent disruption in supplies probably would cause gasoline and other energy prices to spurt much higher.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, produces about a third of the world's oil. But beyond ongoing production, it's excess capacity that makes OPEC the world's oil kingpin. OPEC is promising to make up any lost production from Iraq and Kuwait. And in recent days, Saudi Arabia has ramped up production with that thought in mind.

Unfortunately, lags occur from production to filling your vehicle's gas tank. For one thing, it takes at least a month for an oil tanker to make the trek from the Middle East to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Figure on another month to move imported oil through refineries and distribution systems. This suggests that it will be late May before gasoline shortages begin to ease. Even then, I can't be optimistic about lower prices at the pump.

Increased supplies are likely to occur at about the same time that the heavy summer driving season begins. Moreover, refiners say that they haven't increased gasoline prices as much as they should have over the past few months. They will try to recoup with higher margins as crude oil supplies become more plentiful. For the foreseeable future, you'd better plan on a much lighter wallet after each fill-up.