<a href=www.thestar.com>Irak, Nigeria, Venezuela Mar. 21, 2003. 08:58 AM

PARIS (AP) — The International Energy Agency said today it sees no reason to release emergency crude oil stocks despite the war in Iraq and civil unrest in Nigeria.

"There is no event in Iraq that makes us fear about a disruption in oil supply," agency spokesman Pierre Lefevre said, noting that the output concerned in Nigeria was not significant in terms of volume.

Thursday, soon after the U.S.-led troops launched an invasion of Iraq, the Paris-based energy watchdog said increased production from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and key member Venezuela, combined with lower demand for heating oil in the United States, helped to reinforce confidence that demand would be met.

The agency has said it will allow the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to have first crack at supplying customers before the IEA takes a decision to release stocks. OPEC has pledged to keep markets well supplied.

Iraq's oil exports through the United Nations' oil for food program, normally around 1.7 million barrels a day, are now virtually at a standstill following the withdrawal of UN staff from Iraq on Tuesday.

To date, ethnic clashes in the oil-rich Niger delta in Nigeria have disrupted more than 250,000 barrels a day of the OPEC member's two million barrels a day output.

<a href=www.stamfordadvocate.com>Feeling Centered By Mark Herrmann STAFF CORRESPONDENT March 23, 2003

Lake Buena Vista, Fla. - While Roger Cedeño's defensive ability remains one of the biggest question marks in Mets camp, he believes he knows how to make a grab. After all, he caught hell all of last season.

He caught it from Mets fans, who recognized right away that he wasn't nearly living up to the four-year, $18-million contract he signed. He caught it as he walked to his car in the Shea Stadium parking lot. "They called me a --," he said. "I understand the fans were upset, but ... "

Cedeño knows he would have been finished if he had shouted back. He also knows he will be in line for more of the same this year, especially now that he has moved from leftfield - where he had an admittedly awful season - to the more prestigious and demanding role of centerfielder.

He knows all he can do is try. At least on that score, he has caught the Mets' attention in spring training.

"If you watch him out there, he's playing and having a good time," said Mets coach Gary Pettis, a former Gold Glove centerfielder who has worked hard with Cedeño, hitting him fungoes and giving him advice. "He's comfortable with what he's doing out there. That's the sign of being a good outfielder: becoming comfortable."

Added general manager Steve Phillips: "He and Gary have found a few technique areas to work on and that has allowed him to get more comfortable there. I've seen him much more confident defensively than I've seen him in the last several years. He's going to make a mistake here and there. Most everybody does. But I think overall we're going to be pretty happy with the results."

All of that might be wishful thinking, typical spring training optimism or positive spin on an optionless situation. Cliff Floyd and Jeromy Burnitz are strictly corner outfielders and the Mets believe they have to play Cedeño someplace because of their investment in him. One scout for an American League team said of the Cedeño centerfield experiment: "I don't think they're going to be able to play him there."

If nothing else, Cedeño has earned his club's admiration for his outlook and his production. He doubled in yesterday's 4-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves (one of only three hits against Mike Hampton) and his average is .348. Also, a good throw to the plate resulted in Javy Lopez getting caught in a rundown off second base.

If learning to keep your head up is a good trait for a centerfielder, Cedeño has made a big step in the right direction. He was smiling this past week, even after a root canal procedure, even after a winter during which he was shopped unsuccessfully by the Mets and arrested for driving under the influence.

"Sometimes things happen in a season. Things happen that you can't control," he said, thinking back to last year. "You try to concentrate. But it gets out of your hands."

As much as he knew he played poorly, the personal criticism stung.

"You know what's a good thing? This is why all the players love their families so much: It doesn't matter how bad we do, we can go 0-for-14, and we can come back home and see a wonderful smile. They say, 'Come on, you'll get it tomorrow.' That really gets in your heart."

He said he heard that from his wife and daughter, and in phone calls from his mother in Venezuela. "She would say, 'Hang in there. Come on, son, you know what you can do. Do what you have to do. Work hard.'"

That came from someone who never has seen him play in the big leagues. His mom doesn't like to leave Venezuela. "And she can't watch it on TV. She's too nervous," he said.

Cedeño insists the Mets won't have as much to be nervous about this year. "I can play centerfield. I came up as a centerfielder," he said, sounding a little like the John Fogerty song lyric he said he has never heard ("Look at me, I can be, Centerfield!"). He believes the Mets can win and that the fans will offer praise this year.

That, he will catch.

Today Mets vs. Braves 1 p.m. TV: FSNY Radio: WFAN (660)

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, March 23, 2003 13 March 2003.

"At present, the production and management in our enterprise is all in all very normal. We are not going to reduce production for we are not short of oil supply," a senior managerial person with Nanjing Yangtze Petrochemical Plant revealed to the reporter on 13 March 2003.

"At present, the production and management in our enterprise is all in all very normal. We are not going to reduce production for we are not short of oil supply," a senior managerial person with Nanjing Yangtze Petrochemical Plant revealed to the reporter on 13 March 2003.

Recently, the US-Iraqi War has already erupted and the serious situation struck worries into the outside world. Whether the oil supply from the Middle East will be reduced or even come to a standstill, thereby greatly affecting the Chinese economy.

But it seems that domestic petroleum enterprises are not anxious about the oil shortage.

A fact is that one third of the crude oil supply for the Yangtze Petrochemical Plant is from domestic oilfield while two thirds are imported. Last year saw its crude oil importation reached 5.5 million tons. In the meanwhile the person also revealed that the oil import of the plant includes several sources, such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Indonesia and Russia.

Most of the oils used for now by the chemical petroleum enterprises like the Yangtze had already been bought from the international future market last year. The spot oil to be imported is only for balancing the stock and the shortage. The informed person of the Yangtze released the riddle, "it won't do not to do the future. To afford the need of several million tons of oil a year it's impossible to get them in all at once when they are needed."

An echoing point of view comes from Chen Huai, research fellow with the R&D center of the State Council. He said, "Smothering as the war is it won't affect us too much even though the war has really broken out." The world market is not short of oil supply by now, pointed out Chen Huai. The oil export from Iraq comes only to 0.2 percent of the total volume of oil exportation in the world and the import of oil from Iraq doesn't come to one percent of the total oil importation in China.

Happiness comes out from mishaps? "Last January and February saw our company keep on getting in a normal profit. No impact ever imposed on our achievements due to the oil price fluctuation," said Wu Huishu, Secretary of the board of directors with the Zhenhai Chemical and Oil Refinery Plant.

The Zhenhai Chemical and Oil Refinery Plant is for the moment an enterprise, the largest of its kind in China, which is now listed in the stock market in Hong Kong. As the annual report for the year 2002 is not yet published Wu's not willing to reveal the particulars they've achieved. But she said for sure that the achievements in 2002 were surely better than that in 2001, hitting a new record that the Zhenhai Chemical and Oil Refinery Plant ever achieved.

However, the informed person of the Yangtze Petrochemical Plant revealed that "the efficiency achieved by the company in last January and February turned out the best over the past 20 years ever since the founding of the company." He cleared up the doubt of the reporter by saying, "Our superiority lies in deep-processing. Though the price of the crude oil has been up the price of our products gets higher due to the multiplier effect."

The informed person said by citing an example, the polyester provided by the Yangtze Chemical Petroleum Plant to Wahaha for making plastic bottles last year reached a price of 5000 yuan/per ton, but now it has risen to 6250 yuan/per ton. And the polyester needed by Wahaha alone now amounts to as many as 30,000-40,000 tons. As at present the by-product is at a high price now the Yangtze is going all out in production. "Now we sell what we've turned out with no more to spare."

"When the oil price goes up, the price of the byproducts goes up too. So we can make both ends meet between the increased profit and the price rise," said a high-ranking person with the Shanghai Petrochemical Plant. Last year saw our plant realize a profit of one billion yuan. Though the profit made in the first two months was less than that of the Yangtze yet still a par with that of last year.

"In the price-setting for gasoline, diesel oil and kerosene we follow the state-guiding price," explained Wu Huishu, Zhenhai still has some 30 percent side-products, such as benzene, asphalt, propylene and polypropylene and so on. For these products, the enterprise may decide the price by itself. Due to the "multiplier effect" there is a wide margin for profit.

With regard to the prosperous business in the purchasing and selling of the petrochemical products, Zhu Kuiran, Person in charge of the Sci-tech Development Company under the Shanghai Petrochemical Plant holds that this was a sort of pseudo-phenomenon. "It's not really in dire need of it but somebody is hoarding it." Chen Huai's view on it is, "The fluctuation of the oil price is induced by psychological effect and speculation, a rise driven up by some people and it's not because of the increase or decrease of the oil supply."

A very interesting phenomenon is that all the aforesaid interviewees told the reporter their own judgement. Once the US-Iraqi War breaks out the oil price will soon go down. Because, they are of the opinion as given in a report by the US Ministry of National Defence, "in the Middle East, what constitutes the first and foremost interests for the US national security is to ensure a stable oil price in the Persian Gulf for a smooth flow to other parts of the world."

A chance of reshuffle Neither of the Shanghai, Yangtze Petrochemical Plants nor Zhenhai Chemical and Oil Refinery Plant is worrying about the shortage of oil supply. What they are worrying of is once the US-Iraqi War breaks out it will lead to a congestion in oil transportation and this will really exercise some disadvantageous influence on the Chinese petrochemical industry.

However, they would rather take the oil price rise as a chance, which is hard to come by. On the one hand it has vitalized the Chinese petrochemical industry as a whole while on the other "a slight inflation would help motivate the consumption." "The oil price rise will probably offer the Chinese petrochemical industry an opportunity to reshuffle, thereby taking up again the oil market," said Chen Huai.

As Chen Huai introduced, at the moment the world oil output amounts to 3.3 billion tons but the oil processing capacity has reached 4 billion tons. There is a processing capacity of one billion tons in China's peripheral areas, of which Japan comes to 0.26 billion tons, China 0.3 tons (including 60 million tons in Taiwan), 80 million tons in Singapore and 40 million tons in Indonesia.

"Though the oil price rise will exert pressure on us there's still somebody else who's under a pressure heavier than us," held Chen Huai. China has a population of 1.3 billion. Our byproducts still enjoy a broad market though the oil price has got up. However, to whom the petrochemical products of other countries are sold," Chen Huai raised the question.

By People's Daily Online

By HELEN HUNTLEY, Times Staff Writer © St. Petersburg Times published March 23, 2003

Investors putting their money into foreign funds in the past year have been richly rewarded. Market watchers say the trend is far from over.

Our foreign policy isn't the only thing taking a beating in Europe. The U.S. dollar is getting battered,too. Since its peak a year-and-a-half ago, the dollar has lost a fourth of its value against the euro, the 4-year-old European currency.

But bad news for the dollar is good news for some U.S. investors, who are discovering ways to capitalize on the dollar's weakness and the higher interest rates available overseas.

Those bold enough to make the move last year have been richly rewarded. In the past year, international bond funds were up an average of 19 percent, second only to gold funds among the mutual fund sectors tracked by Morningstar.

While predicting currency movements is never a sure bet, many market watchers say this trend is a long way from being over.

"We believe we're about one year into a multiyear decline in the U.S. dollar," said Frank Trotter, president of Everbank, an online bank that specializes in foreign currency accounts. The unusual bank, which has its headquarters in St. Louis, offers accounts in euros, Norwegian krone, Mexican pesos and many other currencies.

Trotter said the bank's foreign-denominated deposits have doubled in the past year to $165-million. The six-month CD offerings recently available included the Japanese yen at 0.01 percent, the euro at 2.11 percent, the New Zealand dollar at 5.06 percent, the Mexican peso at 7.25 percent and the South African rand at 12.1 percent.

Although it is among the lower-yielding offerings, the euro is by far the most popular choice, Trotter said. That's because most investors who open accounts are only secondarily concerned about interest earnings. Their primary goal is to make money on changes in the exchange rate, by holding the favored currency until they think it's an opportune time to convert back into dollars. They pay an exchange fee of 0.75 percent in each direction. To them the euro looks strongest.

In effect, the euro has become a default choice for investors who do not want to hold Japanese yen or U.S. dollars.

"It's the lesser of three evils," said Ian Kelson, who manages the $1.2-billion T. Rowe Price International Bond Fund from London. "The case for the weak dollar and the strong euro is not at all to do with anything very good in (the economy of) Europe, which if anything has weaker growth than in the U.S."

Part of what's wrong with the dollar is the political and economic uncertainty created by the threat of terrorism and war with Iraq. However, the reasons for the dollar's fall go much deeper and are not likely to be quickly resolved.

"Usually when there is some sort of conflict, the dollar is seen as a safe haven -- except when the conflict involves the U.S.," said Scott Brown, economist for Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg. "Venezuela, Iraq and North Korea are all U.S. problems. If we get a solution to the Iraq conflict, things clear up in Venezuela and we get some dialogue with North Koreans, we could get some short-term improvement in the dollar. But long-term trends will be in place for a while."

Some describe the dollar's decline as inevitable. Like a pendulum, the dollar could go only so far in one direction before it had to swing back the other way. As the dollar strengthened, U.S. goods became increasingly expensive overseas, exports fell and manufacturers suffered. The weakening dollar has begun to produce a pickup in foreign sales, although that is being tempered to some extent by weak economies around the world.

"This is a natural process," said Michael Hasenstab, portfolio manager of the Franklin Templeton Hard Currency Fund in San Mateo, Calif. "Revaluation of the U.S. dollar could be beneficial to the U.S. economy by helping export growth. These macro adjustments tend to move toward equilibrium. We don't know when we will reach that equilibrium, but the pressures that have driven the U.S. dollar to these levels are still in place."

At the root of the dollar's woes is the current account deficit, the government's way of tracking money flowing into and out of the country through trade and investment. So many more dollars are flowing out that the deficit has now reached 5 percent of U.S. economic output, high enough to make investors nervous. Europe, by contrast, has a surplus.

Three big trends have contributed to the problem:

-- The balance of trade is off because U.S. manufacturers cannot sell enough U.S. goods overseas to keep pace with the U.S. consumer's appetite for foreign goods.

-- For years the trade deficit was offset by foreign investors making equity investments in the United States, buying stocks and direct interests in U.S. companies and real estate. In effect, the extra dollars we sent overseas to buy foreign goods came back to us as equity investments. But after three years of stock market decline, accounting scandals and a weaker economy, the equity inflows have dwindled.

-- U.S. interest rates are so low that foreign investors are losing their appetite for U.S. bonds. At the same time, the federal budget has moved from a surplus to a deficit, creating a need to sell more bonds. Ultimately that imbalance could lead to higher interest rates, although at least for now, U.S. investors are making up the difference by putting their money in bonds instead of stocks.

"At precisely the time that people lost confidence in the U.S. economy and stock market and became less willing to make equity investments, yields on U.S. assets fell to very low levels," said Kelson at T. Rowe Price. "Low interest rates are absolutely right for the current U.S. economic climate, but they're not at all helpful in promoting a dollar recovery."

Interest rates also have been coming down in Europe; the European Central Bank has lowered rates partly because of concerns that the strong euro will hurt manufacturing exports. But the rate decline has not occurred as quickly as in the United States, which means European rates still have room to fall. If they do, that could give foreign bonds another boost.

Once the economy begins to improve, interest rates are expected to pick back up, both in the United States and abroad. If that happens, bond prices will fall since interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions. The longer the term of the bond, the more its price is affected by interest-rate swings.

"I think U.S. bonds are the most vulnerable, but European bonds are potentially vulnerable too," Kelson said. "Our view is that this is not the moment to be very aggressive in terms of duration. It's much nearer the end game in terms of the interest rate cycle."

One way to skirt interest rate risk is to stick with very short-term investments, such as the Everbank CDs or the Franklin Templeton Hard Currency Fund, which keeps the average maturity of the securities it owns at 120 days or less.

"We're not looking to take interest rate risk," portfolio manager Hasenstab said. "Our financial advisers are showing this fund to clients as a hedge against the U.S. dollar" declining. He said the fund is making its biggest bets on the euro, the Swiss frank, Danish Krone and New Zealand, Australian and Canadian dollars.

Investing in foreign currencies and bonds remains a foreign concept for most U.S. investors.

"So far investors are not clamoring for it," said Greg Ghodsi, a stockbroker with Robert W. Baird & Co. in Tampa. "But in doing portfolio reviews, some ask what's going on with the dollar."

Investors who want to bet against the dollar have to be prepared for fluctuations in the value of their investments. The Everbank CDs carry FDIC insurance against bank insolvency, but there is no protection from losses if the dollar strengthens when you bet it would get weaker.

Some types of investments are more volatile than others. Broker Ghodsi said the safety-conscious investor should avoid individual foreign bonds, which have big price swings and may be difficult to sell.

"I don't think the typical investor would want to buy something at 100 (dollars per $100 of face value), see it go to 40 and then back up to 80," he said.

Ghodsi prefers mutual funds for foreign bond investments. He suggests investing through closed-end bond funds, which trade like shares of stock on the New York Stock Exchange and other exchanges. Because they do trade, it is possible to limit losses by setting up a standing order with a broker that will trigger the sale of the bond fund if the share price falls below a certain level.

Before buying any bond fund, investors should check to be sure its investing style matches their objectives. Some foreign funds hedge against currency fluctuations so you don't get big losses on the dollar's movements, but neither do you get big gains.

Foreign bonds and bond funds have not been particularly popular with U.S. investors for good reason: When the dollar was strong, they lost money. In addition, many investors prefer to keep their money closer to home.

For those willing to take the risk, putting some money in foreign income investments will diversify a portfolio since foreign bonds do not move up and down in synch with U.S. investments.

-- Helen Huntley can be reached at huntley@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8230.

Oil shipments from Gulf unaffected

Khaleej Times - 23/03/2003

CAIRO Petroleum shipments from the Gulf were unaffected yesterday despite reports of blazing wells in Iraq's southern oil fields, shipping sources said.

"From Kuwait to Suez, it's smooth and steady," said a London-based shipping executive.

Officials in Gulf states reported terminals and refineries were functioning normally across the region, despite an Iraqi missile attack late Thursday that appeared to be aimed at Kuwait's Shuaiba refinery.

The chief of the British armed forces, Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, said Saturday in London that nine oil wells were on fire and that most of Iraq's oil and gas installations had been mined or booby-trapped.

Iraq, however, has denied torching its wells, and said trenches filled with oil had been set alight to reduce visibility and slow the advance of American and British troops.

"Anyway, it cannot be compared to the planned sabotaging of Kuwaiti fields in the 1991 Gulf war," said a Gulf oil official.

Southern Iraq accounted for around half of the country's oil exports until they were halted days before the onset of the war on Thursday.

The main fields around Basra are Zubair, Rumaila, Safwan and Nahr Umar, connected by pipeline to the terminals of Mina Al Bakr and Khor al Amaya, off the Fao peninsula.

The coalition announced on Friday it had secured a beachhead on Fao, but Baghdad said yesterday its forces were still resisting.

Although oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz continued undisturbed on the third day of military action and the Iraqi threat to shipping lanes has decreased, premiums on tankers remained high.

"The threat does not come from Iraq only, you can't exclude possible terrorist acts," said an insurer, recalling last year's attack on a French tanker off the Yemeni coast.

War developments, however, continued to favour a bear market. Crude oil prices have lost more than $10 since they peaked last month over concerns about a war.

New York's benchmark light sweet crude for May delivery skidded 1.21 dollars to 26.91 dollars a barrel Friday, marking a slump from last month's peak of 39.99 dollars to the lowest level this year.

Despite the loss of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day of Iraqi crude, analysts say the market looks oversupplied because of lower seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere, and because production in Venezuela was nearing recovery.

Except for Saudi Arabia, oil exporters were all producing at maximum capacity ahead of the war to appease the market, and expert say global supply now overweights total demand by around 300,000 barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia had hiked production by around one million bpd in the run-up to war to nine million bpd, but can still pump out an extra 1.5 million bpd.

The oil situation is nevertheless still unstable. "War is not over yet, it can go nasty, and Nigeria is now posing a problem," said an expert.

US oil giant ChevronTexaco said on Friday it had suspended all production in the western Niger Delta because of a violent ethnic uprising, slashing output by 140,000 bpd.

Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer, with an Opec production quota of 2.018 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency lists it as the world's sixth largest oil exporter.