Full story... Alex Waddell, staff reporter

Many Americans fear that the war with Iraq will negatively affect the supply of oil to America and therefore cause gas prices to shoot up. The war has caused Americans to become scared of too heavy a dependence on other countries for oil.

Any American who has driven a car in the past few months has most likely noticed the steady increase in gasoline prices.

A major concern of many Americans is whether the war with Iraq will negatively and significantly affect the prices of gasoline and oil.

“The problems with the increase started with the striking in
Venezuela, where the United States gets 13 to 14 percent of its oil. A big chunk of crude oil was cut, causing an increase," said University of Alabama Associate Professor of Chemical Engineering Peter Clark. "Also, oil was tight in the United States. There wasn't a huge supply of it on hand.”

Clark said what helped push along the increase was the unusually high demand for heating oil this past winter. In the fall, oil refineries begin producing more heating oil and less motor fuel because there was a greater need for heating oil in the winter. This year, there was an equally high demand for motor fuel.

When President George W. Bush began talking about a war with Iraq, he aided in furthering the inflation of oil and gas. Clark said the United States gets a considerable amount of gas from Iraq, and the chance for supply disruption made people nervous. Oil was up to $40 a barrel at one point, a sizeable leap from the usual $25 offered by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Companies.

Of course, the war with Iraq is going to have a critical effect on future prices. Clark said the prices could continue to increase if the war lasts too long and the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or surrounding oil rich areas are damaged. There is also the dangerous possibility of shipping disruptions from Saudi Arabia.

Students interviewed expressed concerns about the rising gasoline prices.

"The prices have become ridiculous," said Stacy June, a sophomore in the College of Education. "Where it used to only take me about $15 to fill up my tank, it now takes me almost $20."

"I'm scared to go to the gas station, because I know that the price has probably risen even more since the last time I went," said Brighid Wheeler, a freshman in the College of Communication and Information Sciences.

Many people relate the current gas situation to the oil shortages of the late 1970s and early 80s, but they appear to have less fear over today’s circumstances.

“I remember people were lined up to get gas, and we were always afraid that there wasn’t going to be any," said Tuscaloosa resident Diane Maxwell. I don’t think what’s going on today is bad in comparison.”

"Actually, on an inflation basis, oil is cheaper today than it was in the early 80s," Clark said.

At this point, it is the war’s outcome that will determine the fluctuating prices of gasoline in the United States.

"If the war is over fairly quickly, the prices should definitely go down," Clark said.

This story was written by Alex Waddell, , wadde005@bama.ua.edu,
and edited by Laura Neergaard, neerg001@bama.ua.edu.

Read more.. Monday March 24, 11:34 AM Contact Us: Hong Kong (852) 2802-7002

1134 [Dow Jones] May Nymex crude may have been oversold on speculation of quick U.S.-led victory in Iraq, says HSBC oil and gas analyst Gordon Kwan; "prices could retest $30 a barrel again this week unless the military operations were extremely smooth going into Baghdad." Deteriorating situation in Nigeria, off-peak production in Venezuela and some lost output in Iraq, Kuwait to help prop up prices. (ILK)

1119 [Dow Jones] HKEx (0388) down 5.2% at HK$9.05, after government consultants recommend HKEx to transfer listing function to SFC, which market fears will hurt HKEx's income. UBS Warburg thinks loss of listing function "marginally negative for HKEx"; while HKEx may lose some income from high-growth listing business, UBS points out it could shed regulatory burden, and then be allowed to "focus more on commercial interests". Keeps Neutral call on stock. (IVW)

1113 [Dow Jones] Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical (0719) down 3.0% at HK$1.61 after posting 16% on-year fall in FY02 net profit to CNY68.4 million; 25% cut in final dividend to 6 fen also weighing on shares. Near-term weakness may continue due to lack of interest in shares; so far only 50,000 shares have changed hands. (RLI)

1110 [Dow Jones] Suspended Haier-CCT (1169) may issue statement later just to say not aware of any reasons for recent share price movements, rather than announcing asset injection, source says. Stock volatile since 29.9%-shareholder Haier Group hinted in February its white goods business may be injected into Haier-CCT. Haier-CCT has earlier said talks ongoing, and company may reiterate this on back of persistent speculation in its shares; pre-suspension price at 24.2 HK cents. (IVW)

1102 [Dow Jones] Oil prices may not fall as fast as they did after first Gulf War because of low inventories, says Shell global business environment manager David Frowd. "Stocks today, particularly in the U.S., are very low, supporting prices in the upper 20s (dollars a barrel) even without a war premium," he tells oil conference in Melbourne. Says OPEC capacity enough to cover lost Iraqi output, provided no interruptions in Venezuela or elsewhere. (AND)

1056 [Dow Jones] Illiquid Lai Sun Development (0488) still untraded at 3.1 HK cents, after company announces plans to cut a HK$625 million term loan by two-thirds, via transfer of 20% interest in Furama project, and assignment of HK$600 million face value of shareholder's loan to lenders. Little effect on Lai Sun shares expected as company still weighed down by huge liabilities (HK$8.2 billion as at February). (IVW)

1054 [Dow Jones] Monitor maker Proview (0334) extends Friday's 7.7% rally, up 4.1% at HK$1.02, after posting 267% on-year jump in 1H03 net profit to HK$73.3 million. Kim Eng Securities maintains buy rating even with stock up 54.5% in year-to-date; says despite management caution over 2H03 outlook due to war in Iraq, "growth momentum in place" as company licenses two new brands (Xerox, Sylvania), expands production capacity, improves margins. (RLI)

1042 [Dow Jones] Johnson Electric (0179) up 3.2% at HK$9.6, buoyed by continued Wall Street gains Friday. Stock also likely lifted by SCMP report quoting analysts as saying $750 million bid for GE's motor unit unlikely because company targeting low-risk takeover targets, may invest up to $200 million in new acquisitions. News should ease investors' gearing, integration concerns over potential bid for GE unit. Shares gain for 5th straight session (up 15% so far), but some profit-taking likely if U.S. stocks pull back. (RLI)

1031 [Dow Jones] HSI up 0.6% at 9238 on broad-based gains after U.S. stocks advanced further Friday; Prime US-exposure plays Johnson Electric (0179), up 3.8% at HK$9.65, Li & Fung (0494) up 2.4% at HK$8.45. PCCW (0008) again underperforms, down 0.5% at HK$4.775, on disappointment company's first-ever dividend to be delayed. Trader says short-covering, rampant last week, evidently weakening, but valuations, "caution of shorters" should continue to support HSI. Immediate resistance around 9270, then 9500 likely next resistance level. (IVW)

1024 [Dow Jones] SCMP Group (0583) up 1.8% at HK$2.9, with company due to report FY02 results later today. Daiwa Institute of Research expects company to post 16% on-year increase in net profit to HK$191 million, above Multex consensus of HK$182 million; but says "cautious about the pace of recovery in advertising revenue" due to low visibility on employment, private consumption. May consider downgrading stock if no positive news reflected in results. (RLI)

1023 [Dow Jones] Hospitalization of HK Hospital Authority Chief Executive William Ho with symptoms of atypical pneumonia likely to give HK political leaders pause for thought. Ho's apparent affliction (though this not confirmed) with severe acute respiratory syndrome inevitably raises question of whether he could have been in a position to pass on the mystery illness to HK's top leaders, including Chief Executive Tung, whom he has briefed in recent days on the illness. (JWR)

1018 [Dow Jones] According to trading screen, Haier-CCT (1169) shares suspended, but no reason given yet. Haier-CCT has earlier indicated in talks with 2nd biggest shareholder Haier Group (which owns 29.94% stake) about buying latter's white goods business. Suspension could be for confirmation of deal, or to reiterate talks ongoing, effectively quelling speculation. Haier-CCT ended up 29% at 24.2 HK cents on Friday, has been volatile since potential deal mooted.(IVW)

1001 [Dow Jones] MSNBC TV quotes unnamed U.S. military officials as saying special operations teams and units of CIA are in Baghdad; officials hint recent explosions there (with no air raid sirens or indications of U.S. aircraft overhead) may have been work of Iraqi resistance groups, possibly working with U.S. forces. Unclear if this is just U.S. disinformation, but it may help sustain markets' hopes for quick U.S. victory. (AXT)

<a href=www.upi.com>Source By Hil Anderson UPI Chief Energy Correspondent From the National Desk Published 3/23/2003 9:51 PM

LOS ANGELES, March 23 (UPI) -- A flare-up of simmering ethnic violence in Nigeria could soon replace the war in Iraq as the major cause of anxiety for oil traders, who return to work Monday after seeing world crude prices plummet at the end of last week.

ChevronTexaco said Sunday that it had joined the French oil major TotalFinaElf in evacuating personnel and shutting down some operations in the Niger Delta region of the African nation, which has become a leading supplier of crude to the United States.

"The safety of people is our absolute priority and is the reason for our decision to shut in production and relocate our people and community members displaced by the crisis to safe locations," said Jay Pryor, managing director of the Chevron Nigeria Ltd., subsidiary. "While we do not believe the unrest is directed toward CNL people or assets, we do not consider it safe for our people to remain in the Western Niger Delta, given the current situation."

The news from western Africa came after a wildly bearish week that saw front-month crude fall from dizzying heights of near $40 per barrel to Friday's $26.30 settlement price on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Meanwhile, some price firming was seen on the Singapore exchange late Sunday as Asian traders apparently reacted to the weekend's sharper fighting in Iraq.

ChevronTexaco said it had shut down daily production capacity of 44,000 barrels of oil and 285 million cubic feet of natural gas as well as the Escravos tanker-loading terminal.

Nigeria, an OPEC member and the fifth-largest supplier of crude to the United States, has recently seen an upsurge in fighting among government troops and the two major ethnic groups in the delta region. That region accounts for much of the country's 2 million barrels per day of crude production. Nigeria also supplies oil to India as well as nations in Europe and Asia.

Both ChevronTexaco and TotalFinaElf have declared a "force majeure" for scheduled March deliveries of crude, which means the companies won't guarantee their contracted deliveries will be made on schedule. Such declarations often force oil traders to find replacement supplies on the volatile spot market, where buyers often find that the price is well above the going rate.

The trading period for April crude futures has already expired on the world's major commodities exchanges, although May prices could become more unpredictable as traders calculate the impact the lost Nigerian production will have on oil supplies in the industrialized world.

Crude markets soared in recent months after labor and political strife derailed Venezuela's state oil company, and the United States and Britain began gearing up for what last week became a full-scale invasion of Iraq.

Futures prices tumbled last week after traders decided that the war would be a relatively quick one with little disruption to oil exports from other Persian Gulf producers.

"There is no shortfall in oil production," OPEC Chairman Abdullah bin Hamad al-Atiyyah told an audience in Qatar Sunday.

"OPEC has the capacity to augment production to meet any scarcity in the markets."

According to a Qatari media report monitored by the British Broadcasting Corp., the chairman said that the 3 million bpd that had been lost due to cutbacks in Venezuela and Iraq had been restored, and the cartel saw no need for any immediate increases in production.

"This is a positive development since it has reduced the pressure on world markets and has created a surplus and thus achieved a significant reduction in prices," he added, without addressing the problems in Nigeria. "There is no reason for any anxiety. We do not draw our plans on the basis of fear and anxiety but on the basis of supply and demand in the markets."

Iraq's limited crude exports under the United Nations' oil-for-food program have been suspended, although it appears that Iraq will be able to get back into the market relatively quickly once the Anglo-American invasion comes to a close.

Previous fears that Baghdad would carry out a scorched-earth campaign in its oilfields were on the wane during the weekend after reports from the field found only a handful of wells in the south had actually been torched.

"We have in fact saved the southern oil fields for the Iraqi people, and that's a very good thing, and it was a big risk," Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told NBC's "Meet the Press."

"There are only some 10 out of 500-plus oil wells that are still burning and we have people coming in tomorrow and the next day to repair them."

The BBC reported that a statement from the Baghdad government published in an Iraqi newspaper Sunday heatedly denied the Iraqis were torching their own oil facilities and said: "What is burning in that area is no more than artificial trenches filled with oil to be used as obvious methods of defense."

Iraqi forces were slowly being pushed out of the areas around Basra and Umm Qasar on Sunday, giving the allies virtual control over the region's oil infrastructure, harbors and a refinery with a capacity to process 140,000 bpd of crude.

Read more... Monday March 24, 11:12 AM Contact Us: Bombay 91 22 2288 4212-18, New Delhi 91 11 2307 4020; kindly email your feedback to DJN.IN@dowjones.com

0842 [Dow Jones] MSNBC TV quotes unnamed U.S. military officials as saying special operations teams and units of CIA are in Baghdad; officials hint recent explosions there (with no air raid sirens or indications of U.S. aircraft overhead) may have been work of Iraqi resistance groups, possibly working with U.S. forces. Unclear if this is just U.S. disinformation, but it may help sustain markets' hopes for quick U.S. victory. (AXT)

0838 [Dow Jones] U.S. officials say U.S. troops have found suspected "chemical factory" in south Iraq, but don't confirm whether it's actually believed to be chemical weapons facility as Fox TV reported earlier. If U.S. can prove Iraq had major WMD projects, it will greatly help to justify U.S. decision to go to war in court of world opinion, and reduce negative geopolitical fallout from war - so positive for USD and equities. (AXT)

0836 [Dow Jones] It became clear at weekend that one key war aim - securing Iraq's oilfields intact - has been mostly achieved. Key parts of southern fields and major export terminals on Gulf have been taken; northern fields not yet fully in U.S. hands but appear so far to have avoided damage; U.S. official said Saturday only 9 of Iraq's 500+ fields have been sabotaged. This removes one big fear of markets, even though fall of Baghdad may be days or weeks away. (AXT)

0834 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks soared Friday, with DJIA going into positive territory for year on news of heavy bombardment of Baghdad; DJIA +2.8%, Nasdaq +1.3%, Philly semicon index +2.2% in heavy trade, with DJIA +8.4% for week, biggest weekly gain since October 1982. Players took cues too from reports suggesting Saddam Hussein may have been killed in initial air strike, though later reports cast doubt on this; airline, tourism stocks fared well with Southwest Airlines +7.3%, Walt Disney +9.3% on hopes a short war would ease concerns about tourism. Some analysts say this just relief rally, others though say gains have legs; "just as it wasn't smart to buy on the dips through the bear market, it's not wise to sell this rally," says one. EDS +12% after ousting CEO Thursday, Micron +11% despite 2Q loss as sales surged; but Intuit slid 24% on FY earnings warning. Intuit remained active after-hours, down another 1%.(RXM)

0830 [Dow Jones] OUTLOOK: 0900 RBI to release money market data for Saturday, Mumbai; 1000 Start of 2-day Gas Summit, organized by FICCI, Mumbai; 1200 RBI to announce results of 1-day repo and reverse repo auctions, Mumbai; 1200 Kotak Mahindra to hold media conference on its conversion to a bank, Mumbai;

Syngenta India to report FY02 results.(DJ Team)

Annual adjustment raises rate to 28.5 cents a gallon By STEVEN WALTERS swalters@journalsentinel.com Last Updated: March 23, 2003

Madison - Wisconsin's gas tax, already one of the highest in the nation, will rise from from 28.1 cents to 28.5 cents per gallon on April 1, an increase that coincides with the start of the spring and summer driving season.

With the 0.4 cent increase scheduled to become law April 1, the gas tax alone will bring in $900.5 million this year.

The state gas tax, adjusted every spring for inflation, and the $45-per-car annual registration fee are the two main taxes that pay for highways, bus system subsidies, bridges, aid to local governments and other transportation programs. A separate 3 cent-per-gallon tax funds the replacement of underground fuel tanks.

With the 0.4 cent increase scheduled to become law April 1, the gas tax alone will bring in $900.5 million this year. And Gov. Jim Doyle has recommended a $10 increase in the vehicle registration fee, saying it has not been raised for several years. The April 1 increase will drive gas prices even higher.

Uncertainty over fuel supplies before the U.S. attack on Iraq, and the interruption of oil supplies from Venezuela because of a national strike, boosted the average price of a gallon of self-serve regular in Wisconsin to about $1.75 a gallon last week, up about 23 cents from January and about 39 cents from a year ago, according to AAA Wisconsin.

State Sen. Tim Carpenter (D-Milwaukee) tried last month to add to an emergency spending bill an amendment killing the April 1 scheduled gas-tax increase. But the Senate used a parliamentary maneuver to shelve his proposal.

Carpenter calls the 0.4 cent automatic increase a "covert tax increase" that the full Legislature should have to pass and the governor should have to sign into law.

"All tax hikes in Wisconsin should be openly and publicly debated, and voted on under scrutiny of the citizens who will bear the burden of such taxes," he said.

He also is sponsoring a bill to permanently kill the automatic spring adjustment - called "indexing" - of the gas tax first approved in 1985. According to the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, the spring adjustments have cost drivers a total of about $2.5 billion between 1985 and 2002.

AAA backs increase But AAA Wisconsin official Ernie Stetenfeld said his group, with 590,000 members in the state, supports the annual spring adjustments in the gas tax, despite the "perception" problem the next increase poses by coming at a time of soaring gas prices.

"Indexing maintains the buying power" of the gas tax, which is desperately needed as the state struggles to find money to rebuild highways and intersections, including the Marquette Interchange in downtown Milwaukee, said Stetenfeld, the group's vice president for corporate relations.

"We don't think it's the right time to undo indexing," he said.

While gas prices jumped significantly in January and February, they have leveled off in the last few weeks. But Stetenfeld said no one can predict what will happen to prices now that America and its military allies have invaded Iraq.

Gas prices in Wisconsin soared to about their current levels before the Persian Gulf war in the early 1990s but quickly fell after the war actually started, he noted.

Then, he said, prices fell because "once the war broke out, there was less uncertainty about the future."

But too many unknowns in worldwide oil supplies exist this time to predict future prices, Stetenfeld added. "This isn't an analogous situation, by any means," he said.