Sunday, March 23 By Ted Jackson, Palm Beach Post Staff Writer Saturday, March 22, 2003

Oil prices have fallen sharply since the start of the Iraq war, but don't expect record-high prices at the pump to drop anywhere near as fast. It won't stay there for long

Even though futures prices for wholesale gasoline have fallen in the last two days by about 40 percent, to 82 cents per gallon, and oil prices have tumbled 30 percent, to about $26.50 per barrel, energy market observers say prices are unlikely to remain low for very long.

"I expect oil will fall as low as $21 per barrel," said Alexander Levien, an oil trader at Ken Wolf Commodities in Boca Raton. "But it won't stay there for long."

Levien expects oil prices will soon be approaching $30 per barrel again, while the federal Energy Information Administration is forecasting an average price for oil this year of $32 a barrel, a 25 percent jump from 2002 that assumes no supply disruption from a war in Iraq.

"It would take between four weeks to eight weeks for these lower oil prices to start showing up at the pump anyway," said EIA analyst David Costello.

Gasoline prices in Palm Beach County hit a record high in February, several weeks before the average price for gasoline in Florida hit a similar record.

The current average price for gas in the county is $1.79 per gallon.

"The market is really focusing on the progress of the war right now," said Guy Gleichmann, senior energy trader at U.S. Investments in Miami. "Because the campaign seems to be proceeding smoothly, the big war premium that drove prices higher is now being squeezed out of the market."

There are several reasons why experts think the price of oil will go back up.

Oil inventories are at historic lows in the United States and it is unclear whether increased OPEC production will be enough to sustain the recent decrease in the price of oil.

Also, the effects of a prolonged strike in Venezuela are depriving the world market of about 500,000 barrels a day, while escalating violence in the oil-producing Niger River delta in Nigeria has cut production in that country by about 10 percent.

The oil markets were cheered by reports Friday that only seven wells had been set on fire in the key oil fields of southern Iraq.

Adm. Michael Boyce, chief of the British defense staff, confirmed Friday that oil fields in the south had been secured with minimal damage, according to Dow Jones.

Nevertheless, Iraqi oil exports have ground to a halt for the time being, depriving the world oil market of the country's 2 million barrels a day of production.

World oil consumption is 77 million barrels a day.

ted_jackson@pbpost.com

www.thevictoriaadvocate.com March 22, 2003 THOMAS DOYLE Victoria Advocate

Gasoline prices could come down significantly in the next two to eight weeks, one analyst said.

Oil prices have fallen from around $38 a barrel on March 12 to just under $27 a barrel at the close of business Friday, said Doug MacIntyre, senior oil market analyst with the Energy Information Administration, a branch of the U.S. Department of Energy.

The market is foreseeing improvements in the supply and demand situation after war with Iraq, he said, which is putting downward pressure on oil prices.

"Until something happens to shake that perception in the market, we are likely to see prices stay relatively low where they are now," MacIntyre said.

A drop of a dollar in crude oil prices equates to about a 2.4-cent drop at the retail gasoline pump, he said. The drop seen so far should translate to about a 26-cent drop in retail gas prices, he said.

However, MacIntyre cautioned that there are still many uncertainties concerning the oil market, and things could easily change.

Oil prices, and as a result gasoline prices, jumped earlier this year as oil supplies were reduced because of labor disputes in Venezuela. The threat of war with Iraq further inflated prices.

MacIntyre explained gasoline prices have remained high because retail prices are based on the average oil price over a period of time. Current retail gasoline prices still include the higher oil costs seen earlier this month.

The average price for self-service regular unleaded gasoline in Texas rose a half-cent this week to $1.613 a gallon, according to AAA Texas' weekly fuel price survey.

Increased output from Saudi Arabia has reached the American oil system, said Mary Rose Brown, a spokeswoman for oil company Valero Energy, and a large amount of oil is on the way.

The increased supply is also forcing U.S. crude prices lower and should be reducing gasoline prices soon, she said.

In addition, Venezuelan exports continue to increase closer to pre-labor strike levels, said Mike Shanahan, spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute.

"So the result is the demand pressure that had been affecting prices seems to be lessening some," he said.

"We're still waiting for there to be some downward movement (in gas prices)," said Paul Gonzales, a spokesman for AAA Texas.

Even so, people shouldn't let uncertainty lead to a gas panic, he said.

"There is ample supply to meet our normal demands for gasoline. This is nationwide," Gonzales said. "If people panic-buy it is going to cause artificial shortages and make prices go up. Just buy gas when you normally buy gas and everything will be fine."

5{er team canceled its two-game U.S. tour because of the war in Iraq, and the <a href=www.orlandosentinel.com>Americans instead will play Venezuela on March 29 at Seattle.

Japan was scheduled to play Uruguay on March 26, and the United States three days later. After the Japanese Football Association decided Friday to cancel the trip, the U.S. Soccer Federation quickly signed a deal to play Venezuela.

JAPAN CANCELS GAME WITH U.S.: Japan's soccer team canceled its two-game U.S. tour because of the war in Iraq, and the Americans instead will play Venezuela on March 29 at Seattle. Japan was scheduled to play Uruguay on Wednesday, and the United States three days later. After the Japanese Football Association decided Friday to cancel the trip, the U.S. Soccer Federation quickly signed a deal to play Venezuela. We are certainly disappointed by the decision of the Japanese Football Association,''</a> USSF president Bob Contiguglia said. We provided their federation with ample evidence of the extensive security measures in place.'' In their only meeting, the United States and Venezuela tied 3-3 in the 1993 Copa America, the championship of South America. LB: GOLF

The key is his plate coverage Posted on Fri, Mar. 21, 2003 Associated Press

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. - Barry Bonds doesn't think anyone can protect him in the San Francisco Giants' lineup, but Edgardo Alfonzo certainly is going to give it his best shot as the club's new No. 5 hitter.

Alfonzo didn't make the trip to Tucson for an exhibition Friday. Instead he worked on his hitting with batting coach Joe Lefebvre, a stroke which has made him one of the National League's premium clutch hitters.

In six years as a New York Mets' regular, Alfonzo batted higher with runners in scoring position every season than he did with none on. In that 1997-02 span, his average with RISP was .327. Overall, it was .296.

"The key is his plate coverage," Lefebvre said. "He can hit any pitch with a short, compact swing - and that makes him dangerous. Playing in New York definitely toughens you up. He can handle anything."

Alfonzo agreed, adding: "The New York pressure never got to me. The fans and media can be tough, but it's really no different than winter ball. When you play in Venezuela, it's very intense from the first pitch to the last. It makes you very aggressive."

EXTRA BASES - Following a 1-6-1 Cactus League start, the Giants appear to be peaking at the right time. The 6-3 victory over the host Colorado Rockies was their sixth in seven games, and squared their exhibition record at 12-12-1. "They're pretty good; they'll be OK," manager Felipe Alou said as the club faces some tough roster decisions with 38 players still in camp.

_ General manager Brian Sabean said sentiment wouldn't be a factor if non-roster players Andres Galarraga and/or Ruben Rivera make the team. Galarraga played Triple-A ball for Alou in 1985 and makes his winter home near the manager in Florida. Rivera was signed in 1991 by Sabean, who was the Yankees' scouting director at the time.

_ When asked what his toughest decision will be, exclusive of the pitching staff, Sabean promptly mentioned utilityman Edwards Guzman, an infielder who can catch. Adding to the difficulty is the fact that Guzman is out of options, along with first baseman Damon Minor, catcher Yorvit Torrealba, infielder Pedro Feliz and pitcher Joe Nathan.

_ Livan Hernandez, the likely No. 3 starter behind Kirk Rueter and Jason Schmidt, pitched in a minor league game at neighboring Mesa, and reliever Tim Worrell worked one inning at the minor league complex.

"The San Jose Accord in full swing" Observer Reporter Saturday, March 22, 2003

WESTERN BUREAU -- Jamaica will next week sign an agreement with Ecuador for the supply of 12,000 barrels of oil per day from that country, as the Government puts measures in place to ensure that the country's oil supply is not affected by the US/Iraq war.

"The Venezuelan market should be restored for us to receive supplies within a month, but also, we have been able to pursue other markets," Commerce, Science and Technology Minister Phillip Paulwell told Montego Bay's business leaders yesterday.

He was speaking at a meeting called to discuss the impact of the war on the productive sector.

"We are therefore saying that with Venezuela back (soon), and Mexico under the San Jose Accord in full swing, and now with Ecuador coming on as a new partner, we will not have a shortage of petroleum products, whether this time or in the foreseeable future," he added.

But the minister stressed the need for energy conservation, as it was still not clear how high the price of the commodity would rise during the ongoing crisis.

"Initially the price (of oil) is falling but it is felt that we won't know where the price will reach until another week or so," Paulwell said.

At the same time, he repeated earlier reassurances given by the Government that they do not expect a shortage of food items during the crisis.

"We have adequate supplies of flour, chicken, eggs and other items that are imported generally; so we do not anticipate that we will have any problems with basic food supplies," Paulwell noted. "A lot of supplies come from North America and other areas but in none of these areas we believe the war will affect our ability to import."

The minister added that there should be sufficient domestic food items on the market due to this year's significant increase in domestic crop production.