<a href=www.agrinewspubs.com>More... Monday, March 24, 2003

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Although America’s minds are on Iraq and the potential impacts of war, the agriculture industry should be keeping a close eye on the developments with North Korea, said an Ohio State University agricultural economist. Matt Roberts, with the Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics, said a war with Iraq may cause little, if any, economic impacts, but a conflict with North Korea could cause a dramatic disruption in agricultural trade and market prices. "A potential war with Iraq is simply creating short-term financial uncertainty, which may result in higher interest rates if tensions continue," Roberts said. "Any long-term ramifications may result in the slow-down of imports and exports due to heightened security, and in what we call reputation effects — America’s standing in the international community when it comes time for other countries to make American purchases." Such impacts would be minor and diminish as time moved on, but a war with North Korea could have a longer-lasting effect, Roberts said. "South Korea is a very industrialized nation and is a close trading partner with the U.S. I think it’s the fifth largest export market for our beef and pork," he said. "Any attack would probably involve the near leveling of Seoul (the South Korean capital) from the north, so the economic disruptions would be immense. We would feel that in our agricultural community. The lesser demand for meat would reduce the demand for feed grains. In other words, a decrease in exports translates into a decrease in grain prices." Although any conflict with Iraq or North Korea would produce some economic instability, the biggest impact a war would have on the U.S. agricultural community would be one of a social nature, Roberts said. "The National Guard and (Army) Reserves draw heavily from rural areas: police forces, firefighters, farmers. If a war with Iraq is not a quick and decisive one or if tensions continue to increase on the Korean peninsula, it’s possible we’ll start to see more people drawn out of our rural and farming communities," he said. "Their absence would just compound the stresses that some of these families already face with drought and finances and a tough winter." One impact Americans have felt with a looming war with Iraq has been an increase in gas prices, currently averaging $1.68 a gallon — a 54-cent increase from this time last year. "Probably the biggest economic impact we would see with a war with Iraq would be sustained high gas prices," Roberts said. With natural gas prices following suit, it could mean higher-priced fuel and fertilizers for farmers. "We import more of our natural gas than we once did. It’s the primary feedstock from which anhydrous is made, so that has some potential to impact farming profitability this year," Roberts said. "I don’t think this is shaping up to be a year like 2001 where there was a gross anhydrous shortage, but those gas prices will stay higher. We may see a slight shift from corn planting to soybean planting because corn production requires higher input costs." The other piece to the crude oil price puzzle is the political unrest in Venezuela that has substantially reduced the flow of petroleum products. Venezuela is the United States’ third-largest oil exporter, behind Mexico and Saudi Arabia. "Venezuela pretty much shot itself in the foot with this situation," Roberts said. "Venezuela has always been a reliable partner for us, until now. Many of our refineries were built to process Venezuelan oil, but they have had to alter their processes and it has made them less efficient." Carl Zulauf, an Ohio State agricultural economist, said another impact a war with Iraq could have would be a renewed emphasis on U.S. energy independence. This would result in the increased use of alternative fuel s like ethanol and biodiesel, crop byproducts. "In the short run, this is probably good for U.S. agriculture, in particular corn producers because of increased demand for ethanol," Zulauf said. "In the long run, the impact could be more problematic if some other source of alternative fuel emerges that displaces the demand for ethanol." Last year, the ethanol industry set an all-time production record and production in 2003 is likely to follow suit. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, American ethanol producers made 177,000 barrels of ethanol per day in January. Total production is projected to hit 2.5 billion gallons by the end of the year. "In the past year, since harvest, ethanol has truly been a savior to the corn market. Our corn exports have been very weak. However, ethanol production has exploded over the last six months, to the point where ethanol is consuming around 8 percent of American corn production," Roberts said. Biodiesel, another renewable fuel, also is making headlines in U.S. energy production. Last March, the Minnesota legislature passed a law mandating a 2 percent inclusion of biodiesel into the state’s petroleum diesel supply beginning in 2005. Minnesota is the first state to require the addition of biodiesel in commercial diesel supplies. More recently, a bill was introduced to the U.S. Congress that would give biodiesel the same tax incentives that ethanol currently receives. "Much of the tax incentive for ethanol is because it is exempt from the highway excise tax, but it has begun to impact the budget of the interstate highway system," Roberts said. "If biodiesel is exempt from those same taxes, concerns are being raised that as the production of alternative fuels increases, it will seriously impact that budget and the money is going to have to come from somewhere." More emphasis on alternative fuels, however, would provide support for farm prices. "Over the course of the year, my feeling is that national prices have been a dime higher because of increase in our ethanol production," Roberts said.

More.. Monday March 24, 12:09 PM

1309 [Nikkei/Dow Jones] No extra lift for movie producer-distributor Toho (9602) on Oscar for animated feature "Spirited Away"; company only distributed film, and was not on production team, so doesn't benefit from videos, TV airings, says player. Issue up 4.0% at Y1,119, edging down from Y1,120 morning high. (FKH)

1301 [Nikkei/Dow Jones] Osaka market up and expected to hold early gains as higher dollar providing solid support to major exporters like Rohm (6963), Nintendo (7974) and Murata Manufacturing (6981). "The strong buying interest from the morning has carried over to afternoon trade," says trader. OSE adjusted average up 2.5% at 13870.85.(JSH)

1255 [Nikkei/Dow Jones] Ishizuka Glass (5204) may start paring early gains after leading maker of glass bottles and tableware says in midday break it now expects Y280 million group net loss for FY through this month, vs previous forecast for Y150 million profit. Company blames evaluation losses on its bank shareholdings. Shares up 1.3% at Y157, just off morning close Y158. (JSH)

1240 [Dow Jones] May Nymex crude may have been oversold on speculation of quick U.S.-led victory in Iraq, says HSBC oil and gas analyst Gordon Kwan; "prices could retest $30 a barrel again this week unless the military operations were extremely smooth going into Baghdad." Deteriorating situation in Nigeria, off-peak production in Venezuela and some lost output in Iraq, Kuwait to help prop up prices. (ILK)

1215 [Dow Jones] Movie producer-distributor Toho (9602) may rise further on news its animated feature "Spirited Away" has won an Oscar; film, which grossed only $5.5 million in U.S., was surprise winner against field of nominees that included $100 million Hollywood hits "Ice Age" and "Lilo & Stitch." Issue up 3.9% at Y1,118 midday. (ABR)

1201 [Dow Jones] "Tsutaya" video and CD rental store operator Culture Convenience Club (4756), or CCC, may not rise much ahead of 16:30 tie-up announcement with Nippon Oil (5001); tie-up may allow CCC's 18 million members to obtain benefits at Nippon Oil's 12,000 "Eneos" gas stations nationwide. Follows similar CCC tie-up with Lawson (2651) earlier this month. CCC shares down 0.8% midday at Y2,975; may be top-heavy as above 25-day average Y2,896. (HIK)

They're finally becoming serious global players

Ever since they emerged on the global scene a decade or so ago itching to invest, China's energy companies have acquired a reputation as the greenhorns of the oil patch. They struck seemingly promising exploration and pipeline deals in Venezuela, Russia, and Kazakhstan -- only to see them unravel or find they had grossly overpaid. They gained notoriety by going it alone in rogue states shunned by most established Western players, such as the Sudan, Iraq, and Burma. And all too often, the Chinese drove negotiators nuts with ever-shifting terms and maddening delays.

China Inc. is growing up fast. In mid-December, London's BG Group PLC (BRG ) decided to shop an 8.3% stake in oil and gas fields in the North Caspian Sea that could be as important as Alaska's Prudhoe Bay. ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM ) and Royal Dutch/Shell Group (RD ) also own stakes. So CNOOC Ltd., a unit of Beijing's China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CEO ), leaped at the chance. Executives hastily arranged visas and jetted to London. The deal, for $615 million, was struck in a few weeks and closed in mid-March. "I was blown away by the quickness of their response," says Cai Jinyong, managing director of Goldman Sachs (Asia) LLC, which advised BG. "Chinese companies have come of age." The fields require hefty investments, but analysts say CNOOC paid a fair price. The deal is part of an increasingly aggressive Chinese global oil investment blitz that is likely to accelerate from Central Asia to North Africa. The mission: to lock in oil and gas supplies to meet China's voracious energy demands in the coming decades, and to ease what Beijing regards as a dangerous reliance on the Persian Gulf. The Iraq crisis has heightened China's sense of urgency: The doubling of oil prices in the past year has hammered China's burgeoning, energy-guzzling industrial sector. China imports 60% of its oil from the Mideast. Any big disruption of shipments, Chinese leaders fear, could threaten national security. What's more, the gap between China's domestic output and its needs has been widening far beyond projections. By 2015, predicts the U.S. Energy Dept., China may have to import 8.6 million barrels a day, up from 2 million now. "They are desperate to secure all the supplies they can get," says Paik Keun-Wook, a China oil expert at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs. In recent months, however, China's long-term anxieties have eased considerably thanks to a string of offshore breakthroughs. Beijing's China Petrochemical Corp., parent of the listed Sinopec Group, also bought a stake in the Caspian reserves in March. Around the same time, Chinese companies snared rights to other important fields in Indonesia's East Kalimantan province. That came soon after CNOOC bought huge Indonesian offshore reserves from Spain's Repsol YPF for $585 million. Another coup could come in early May, when new Premier Wen Jiabao travels to Moscow. Wen is expected to close a deal to build a $2.5 billion pipeline that would bring millions of tons of Siberian crude annually to China's Northeast. The 1,500-mile pipeline venture with private Russian oil giant Yukos had been snarled in red tape and infighting for four years, as rival Russian oil companies pushed their own plan to build a pipeline to Japan. Moscow is still weighing both projects, but Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov has said the government is leaning toward approving the Chinese pipeline first. There are political implications to the deal as well. "Selling oil to China is a good thing for Russia," says Stephen O'Sullivan, research director for Moscow-based United Financial Group. "It increases trade and dependency and helps align the two countries' interests." That's better than angering a huge neighbor by not sharing Russia's mineral wealth. The Chinese also are making big strides in securing liquefied natural gas, which Beijing is pushing hard as cleaner fuel than coal, which now provides 60% of electricity output. In August, CNOOC bought a stake in Australia's huge North West Shelf that will bring 3.5 million tons of LNG annually to South China for the next 25 years. Using its big market as leverage, China secured the gas at about 15% less than rival offers from South Korea and Japan. Why the sudden successes? The biggest factor is the growing savvy of China's three biggest oil companies since they listed shares overseas. CNOOC, which made its first overseas acquisition a decade ago, is by far the most experienced and has recruited young, Western-trained talent. China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC ), the largest oil and gas producer, has drastically downsized its bloated workforce and injected key exploration and development assets into PetroChina, listed in both New York and Hong Kong. Sinopec, China's biggest refiner, has begun looking offshore for its own crude. "These companies no longer are acting as agents of the state," says Scott C. Roberts, Cambridge Energy Research Associates' China representative. "They have to go abroad and act commercially, and are under pressure to deliver returns quickly." The North Caspian Sea deals illustrate China Inc.'s rising clout. The Kashagan field has estimated recoverable reserves of 13 billion barrels of oil equivalent. CNOOC paid more than Shell and ConocoPhillips did for similar stakes last year. CNOOC figures the premium is justified because productive wells have been dug, reducing risk. "This is a fabulous acquisition," boasts CNOOC Chief Financial Officer Mark Qiu. "This gives us a firm foothold in probably the most prolific oil and gas basin outside the Middle East." The deal also helps amend earlier Chinese fiascos in Kazakhstan. In 1997, Beijing announced with great fanfare a $3.5 billion deal by CNPC to buy a stake in a Kazakh oil company and build a 1,875-mile pipeline to western China. It then learned the fields wouldn't put out enough crude to justify the project's huge expense. CNPC shelved another pipeline that would have carried oil from Kazakhstan to the Persian Gulf, where it would have been loaded onto Chinese tankers. Getting the oil economically from the Caspian to China remains a challenge. But CNOOC hopes to use pipelines already built or planned by international consortiums. CNOOC also suggests it could do a swap, giving its Caspian output to European partners and in return getting oil from their refineries in Asia. Still, China's business practices have a ways to go. Its oil companies continue to have a reputation for negotiating far-reaching pacts and then changing their position. Many analysts also question China's obsession with owning equity stakes in foreign reserves -- rather than saving money by striking long-term procurement contracts with existing players. Even so, it's encouraging that China's oil companies seem increasingly intent on joining the global club rather than remaining an outsider. As it joins the mainstream, China may lose the urge to chase dubious deals.

By Pete Engardio in New York and Dexter Roberts in Beijing, with Catherine Belton in Moscow

Alertas de Robert Alonso Robert Alonso

En el Hotel Nacional del Vedado, en La Habana, preparan unos buffet a todo dar: langostas, camarones, ancas de rana... la imaginación es el límite.

Todo esto que acabo de nombrar está ESTRICTAMENTE prohibido para los cubanos, incluso, en los "paladares" (*), a pesar de que ellos se las arreglan para que lo haya, aunque sea a un precio fuera de lo imaginable. Los cubanos sirven y los turistas comen.

Para un "cubano-turista" como yo, el escenario produce un profundo dolor de conciencia. El complejo de culpa ataca cuando uno piensa que al abandonar Cuba y regresar de "turista" años después, uno adquiere un derecho que no lo tiene quien ha sufrido las inclemencias del régimen durante cuatro décadas.

¿Qué puede sentir un "cubano de Cuba" que atiende detrás del mostrador de un buffet de cualquier hotel de lujo en Varadero a un "cubano de Miami", lleno de joyas, un buen Rolex, vestido con un conjunto playero de "Saks Fith Avenue", que se atiborra de langostas, mejillones, al tiempo que amenaza a su hijo que de no comerse su "T-bone steak" no se bañará en la playa?

Tampoco es tan dramática la cosa, porque trabajar en un hotel de lujo es una bendición. El robo es incontrolable. La excusa es el turismo. Las propinas, por muy pequeñas que estas sean: una verdadera fortuna. Los turistas que se apiadan de los cubanos dejan atrás toallas, sandalias, "shorts", lentes de sol, trajes de baño, chancletas, ropa interior, agendas electrónicas, pitusas (blue-jeans),medias panties, carteras de semi-cuero, paquetes abiertos de toallas sanitarias, jabones usados, relojes y pare usted de contar.

En el Hotel Nacional me atendió un médico oftalmólogo de apellido Hernández, que en sus ratos "libres" atiende mesas alrededor de la piscina. Cuba es tal vez el único país en el mundo donde un oftalmólogo le trae a uno una cerveza, mientras se toma el sol al lado de la piscina repleta de italianos, alemanes, ingleses, canadienses... y venezolanos.

Por extraño que parezca, no se notaba resentimiento en su trato, todo lo contrario. Además de mesonero, "Rodolfito" --- así se llamaba el médico --- te puede conseguir tabacos de marca, ron Havana Club a mitad de precio y, ¿por qué no?, un par de "jineteras" para pasar la noche en buena compañía.

Después de quince años de graduado como médico, con un post grado en Bulgaria, "Rodolfito" se rebusca en su hospital unos 30 dólares al mes... sirviendo mesas en El Nacional, puede ganar eso en un día, fuera de su sueldo oficial. Me aventuré a preguntarle si no le apetecía emigrar a Miami y me contestó con ese sabor del cubano guapachoso: "qué va mulato, si yo en Cuba estoy de lo más bien..." Si mi hijo médico regresase de Europa y se emplease de mesonero, traficante de tabaco y ron... y además fuese chulo, moriría de tristeza y a su madre habría que internarla en un sanatorio para enajenados mentales, pero para "Rodolfito" --- producto de la "Revolución" --- la vida en Cuba es aceptable y apetecible, además.

Extracto del libro

Las vivencias de "Paquito" en el Hotel Nacional - El Vedado, La Habana (Cuba)

"Regresando al Mar de la Felicidad" de Robert Alonso

El Hatillo 24 de marzo de 2003

Robert Alonso robertalonso2003@cantv.net

(*) Los "paladares" son pequeños restaurantes caseros donde se sirve una estupenda comida familiar. El gobierno permite estos "negocitos" limitados por un máximo de mesas. Los ingresos que producen estos "paladares" son - supuestamente - compartidos con el régimen.