Oil prices drop despite fire reports

www.zwire.com By CHRISTINA HOAG, Knight Ridder Newspapers March 21, 2003

As the United States intensified its military assault on Iraq on Thursday, crude oil prices tumbled again to three-month lows in a day of price swings sparked by reports of oil well fires. Crude oil futures sank for the sixth consecutive trading session, to $28.80 per barrel, a slide of $1.08 from Wednesday. But during the day, prices swung between a high of $30.60 and a low of $28, volatility caused by U.S. military reports that three or four oil wells in the southern Iraqi field of Rumaila were ablaze. ''The market is pricing based on a best-case scenario of a pristine military operation by U.S.-led forces,'' said John Kilduff, energy-risk management analyst at Fimat USA. ''But the volatility is incredible.'' Experts warned that although the market still anticipates a quick victory for the U.S.-led coalition, oil field sabotage and shipping lane disruption could easily cause prices to skyrocket. Because of that, motorists will see no immediate relief at the gasoline pump. Miami's average price for regular gasoline remains at a record $1.761, while Fort Lauderdale, Fla., stations on Thursday were averaging just a penny below Wednesday's all-time high of $1.767, according to the AAA auto club. ''Things are looking a lot better,'' said Lawrence J. Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Research Industry Foundation. ''The market is sensing that and we're seeing a reduction in prices, but there will be a lag before we see that in the gasoline on the street.'' Over the past week, the so-called ''war premium'' that has added $5 to $8 to oil prices since last fall has been almost wiped out. Prices have plunged 28 percent since hitting a 12-year high on Feb. 27 of $39.99 despite the loss of almost all Iraqi production of 2.5 million barrels a day. The United Nations shuttered its Food for Oil program Monday. ''The irony of the situation is that Iraq's exports have been cut off,'' said John Kingston, global director of oil for Platts, an energy information provider. A similar price plunge occurred in January 1991 when U.S.-led forces launched air raids on Iraq. Oil plummeted by a third from the pre-war escalation that jacked up prices to $41.15 in October 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait. This time around, analysts say other factors besides anticipation of Saddam's easy defeat are softening prices. The market has been reassured by OPEC's pledge to goose output should supplies be disrupted for a prolonged period, and by the extra one million barrels a day from Saudi Arabia. The Saudis also said this week that they are harboring a 50 million-barrel emergency reserve. And both the United States and Europe are showing more flexibility about releasing their strategic supplies. Demand will also start dropping as the Northern Hemisphere moves into spring, and Venezuela's output is ramped up after a crippling workers' strike. In other good news, U.S. crude stocks, which reached record lows as refiners were drawing down inventories rather than buying supplies at a premium price, are also starting to swell, although they remain at uncomfortably low levels unseen since the 1970s. But the rosy picture could dim overnight. Key to keeping the oil market stable is the allied forces' capture of Iraq's oil fields in order to prevent sabotage that could sideline production for an extended period. (EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM) In February 1991, retreating Iraqi forces set alight more than half of Kuwait's 1,200 oil wells. With that in hindsight, current military plans call for quickly seizing the southern oil area of Basra and nearby port of Umm Qasr. The oil fields lie only 29 miles over the Kuwaiti border. A special ground force has been designated to secure the area. U.S.-led forces hope that a warm welcome from the region's inhabitants will make the job easier. Historically, there has been no love lost between Basra's approximately one million Shiite Muslims and Baghdad's ruling Sunni Muslims. At the end of the Persian Gulf War in 1991, Basra staged an uprising against Saddam. But Basra is a small field. The real prize will be to secure the giant fields surrounding Kirkuk, in a Kurdish stronghold near the Turkish border. With Turkey granting the United States access to airspace alone, ''that will definitely be a trickier proposition,'' Kilduff said. ''There's also some fear that the Kurds might try and claim those fields for themselves.'' Unconfirmed reports state that the Iraqis have already dug a trench around Kirkuk to set oil afire and have planted explosives around oil installations. (END OPTIONAL TRIM) Sabotage outside Iraq is also a threat, analysts said. That danger pervades the Persian Gulf, above all at oil installations and shipping terminals. ''Muslim fundamentalists can do anything to cut off production in another country,'' said W. David Montgomery, energy expert with Charles River Associates in Washington. ''Saudi security is really important, there are a lot of internal threats.''

www2.ocregister.com Thursday, March 20, 2003 By GARY A. WARNER The Orange County Register

War in Iraq. Terrorists in Afghanistan. Violent druglords in Colombia. Political upheaval in Venezuela. General lawlessness in Somalia.

The list of places Americans cannot or should not visit is long and getting longer by the month since the 9-11 attacks and conflict with Iraq. There are currently 35 countries for which the State Department has issued an official "travel warning," the equivalent of an official "no go" recommendation. The government bans travel to only two countries: Libya and Iraq. For the other countries, the State Department strongly warns against travel, saying it cannot guarantee the safety of citizens. The rest of the list:

Middle East/Near East: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel (including the West Bank and Gaza), Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Somalia

Central Asia: Tajikistan

Africa: Algeria, Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo-Kinshasa, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Libya, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Zimbabwe. Latin America: Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia

Far East: Indonesia

Europe: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia. Topping it all off is the sweeping "Worldwide Caution," a common issuance since the September 2001 terrorist attacks. Americans are warned to be on their guard everywhere in the world. A special case exists in Cuba, where Americans can travel under some circumstances, but are barred from spending money – a policy routinely circumvented in recent years by travelers who claim the "educational travel" loophole in the law.

The lists change almost daily. For the most current travel warnings and updates, go to the Bureau of Consular Affairs' Web site at travel.state.gov, or contact the Bureau of Consular Affairs, Office of Public Affairs, at (202) 647-5225.

For an interactive map showing State Department travel warnings worldwide, go to www.ocregister.com/travel/warning/.

CONTACT US: Warner is the Register's travel editor. He can be reached at (888) 436-0026 or e-mail gwarner@freedom.com

www.upi.com By Ellen Beck United Press International From the Life & Mind Desk Published 3/21/2003 4:00 AM

THINGS WE DON'T UNDERSTAND The Catholic faithful in Caracas, Venezuela, are lining up to see the small Mary Mystic Rose statue of the Virgin Mary -- which appears to be weeping tears of blood, the Ultimas Noticias newspaper reports.

The statue at Belen College, a "servant of Jesus" named Maritza told the paper, "cried of sadness" because many of God's children "have a heart of stone."

The paper says a video shows the statue weeping on Monday. Another episode in which the statue bled from its eyes occurred Wednesday.

The Roman Catholic Church says it will investigate.

-0- NEWS OF OTHER LIFE FORMS The Fed Ex facility at the Port Columbus airport in Ohio was evacuated after a small package containing organs from birds that had tested positive for the West Nile Virus exploded.

WTAM-TV in Cleveland reports Ohio Health Department officials said the virus was live -- but Fed Ex workers should not worry.

Since the virus was frozen, the only way it could be transmitted is if someone with an open wound came into direct contact with it, WTAM reports.

There was no evidence anyone had tampered with the package.

-0- TODAY'S SIGN THE WORLD IS ENDING Mooning the judge will get you another six months. It was that simple in an Athens, Texas, courtroom for 40-year-old Ray Mason who had just pleaded guilty to aggravated assault.

The Athens Daily Review reports Mason was sentenced to eight years in prison and then, as he crossed in front of the bench on his way to his seat, he dropped his pants and gave Judge Jim Parsons a full view of his soon-to-be-incarcerated derriere.

Apparently not satisfied with just Parson's purview, Mason did a little pirouette and showed the entire courtroom.

Parsons didn't think it was funny, the paper notes, adding six months to Mason's sentence for contempt of court.

-0- AND FINALLY, TODAY'S UPLIFTING STORY Readlyn, Iowa, is known for being the home of 857 friendly people and one old grump. A sign outside town even says so.

This weekend the fun begins -- choosing the one old grump for 2003 -- and the Waterloo Courier reports six finalists are vying for the title.

The paper says residents will vote at the Readlyn Community Club membership dinner and a grump coronation is the defining moment of Readlyn's Grump Days celebration in June. The winner will be crowned with a ceremonial white baseball cap at the beginning of Grump Days.

Qualifications are easy -- you must be at least 65 years old and live in town. You don't even have to be grumpy.

www.freep.com March 21, 2003 BY JOCELYN PARKER FREE PRESS BUSINESS WRITER

Though jitters remain about the U.S. war with Iraq, drivers pulling into metroDetroit filling stations have found solace in at least one thing: steady gas prices.

Even with the conflict under way, gasoline prices in Michigan appeared largely unchanged Thursday as some war fears began to subside.

"I'm relieved," said Mark LaGuire, a Saginaw resident who was pumping gas at an Amoco station on Warren in Detroit, where regular unleaded was $1.74 a gallon. "I really thought it would be $2 a gallon today."

AAA Michigan spokesman Jim Rink said he hadn't received reports of gas price gouging in the war's outset. Monday, when AAA released its last survey, the average price of a gallon of self-serve regular unleaded stood at $1.77, up a penny from last week. The Detroit-area average was $1.72, up 0.2 cent from last week.

Crude oil prices have tumbled in recent days on beliefs that the war would bring a quick victory. Also, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has promised to maximize production to make up for any disruption in crude oil exports from Iraq.

Rink said that after President George W. Bush's ultimatum to Saddam Hussein on Monday, the price of oil fell below $30 a barrel for the first time in months. Last week the cost of crude was hovering near $40 a 42-gallon barrel, the highest it's been in more than two years, on war fears and a petroleum workers strike in Venezuela.

Crude oil for April delivery closed Thursday at $28.61 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Experts also say the uncertainty about war is gone now that the conflict has started.

"Like the stock market, oil is also traded, and the thing that traders hate is any uncertainty," Rink said. "War brought a level of that certainty back."

More than half the price people pay at the pump is determined by the cost of crude oil.

Matthew Cordaro, a business professor at Long Island (N.Y.) University, said gas prices are likely to fall in about a month, given the fall in oil prices. But a terrorist attack or other unforeseen event could keep prices high.

While prices have stabilized, some Detroit-area motorists remained incensed about the costs.

"I feel like they're still gouging us," said Lana Frank of Wayne, who pumped gas at a Clark station on Rochester Road in Troy. "It's nice to see it's leveling off, but what's making it $1.67?"

Thursday, Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox warned gas station operators against unnecessary increases in gas prices due to the war. Stations found guilty of gouging are subject to $25,000 in fines. After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, 48 stations were required to refund more than $100,000 in overcharges to consumers.

Contact JOCELYN PARKER at 313-222-5391 or at parker@freepress.com. Free Press staff writer MATT HELMS and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

Fired Venezuela Oil Strikers Jobless but Defiant

asia.reuters.com Thu March 20, 2003 12:11 PM ET By Pascal Fletcher

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Four months ago, Migdalia Salazar and Cecilia Hernandez had cushy office jobs at Venezuela's state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), one of the giants of the oil world.

Today, jobless and struggling to keep their family budgets afloat, they are selling homemade cakes and pastries at a makeshift stall outside their old office in east Caracas.

Fired with 16,000 other PDVSA employees for joining a recent two-month opposition strike against leftist President Hugo Chavez, the two are fighting to come to terms with their new status among the ranks of Venezuela's unemployed.

"I can't say that we're feeling happy. This is tough for all of us," said Hernandez, 45, as she waved away flies from a cloth-covered table offering potato omelets and cakes.

As a bilingual secretary of 23 years service in PDVSA's operations department, she and other fired colleagues enjoyed some of the best-paid and most coveted state jobs in the poverty-plagued nation, the world's No. 5 oil exporter.

But their lives as members of the country's envied professional elite were turned upside down in early December after they joined an opposition walkout seeking to force populist Chavez to resign and hold early elections. His foes accuse him of trying to install Cuban-style communism.

The tenacious former paratrooper, who survived a coup last year, refused to budge and ordered the strikers fired in their thousands, vilifying them as "traitors" and "terrorists" trying to topple him. The fired workers represent more than 40 percent of the original PDVSA work force.

Chavez, who makes a point of emphasizing his own humble background, displays little sympathy for the fired strikers. While they held their jobs, their average living standard was far above the destitution experienced by the impoverished majority of Venezuela's population.

Invoking the social and economic fault lines that bisect Venezuela's society, Chavez portrays the PDVSA rebels as a snobbish, insensitive "mafia" whom he accuses of plundering the country's oil wealth while turning their backs on the poor.

COME DOWN IN THE WORLD

Most found out about their dismissals through daily newspapers, where the government published long lists of the executives and employees being removed from their posts.

"I was fired twice, in two lists," said Maria Gabriela Gil, who used to work for PDVSA's technology and information department but now staffs the strikers' cake stall.

The fired oil employees are now rallying together to survive, setting up a solidarity fund to help out the most needy of their out-of-work colleagues and organizing raffles, bingo games, dances, markets and cake sales to raise money.

Salazar, a 56-year-old mother of three who worked for PDVSA for 34 years and speaks English and French, is unrepentant.

"This is all about resistance. We're not moving an inch," said the veteran oil company staffer, who before the strike served in PDVSA's external relations department attending foreign oil delegations and helping to organize conferences.

But some of the fired workers, who range from highly paid executives and engineers to secretaries and field workers such as welders and divers, are already feeling the pinch from not having received a paycheck for several months.

"I think the majority of us are already living off our savings," said Mirna Santella, who had worked as a supervisor at the PDVSA petrochemicals affiliate Pequiven.

The strikers have set up a meeting place outside PDVSA offices in east Caracas, a hotbed of opposition to Chavez. They gather daily around the building to plan their next protests against the government, organize solidarity campaigns or simply to offer each other advice, sympathy and support.

"There is a sense of family that is being maintained ... It's as if the company is existing on the street," said Rafael Porras, a former advisor for strategic planning in PDVSA's exploration and production department.

HOPING TO RETURN, BUT WHEN?

Porras said private companies and individuals were supporting the solidarity fund with donations. Associations of doctors and psychologists, insurance firms and even landlords' groups were also offering services, facilities, credits and discounts to make life easier for the fired workers.

But Porras said the strikers were so far avoiding holding mass public collections in the streets because they are aware that even without jobs they are still better off for the moment than the vast majority of unemployed Venezuelans.

The strikers maintain the hope that, sooner or later, they will be going back to the company. "We're doing this with the conviction that we are going to return," said Gil.

But the question is when. Chavez says most of the recent PDVSA strikers actively backed the short-lived coup against him in April 2002 and vows they will not be given another chance to cause mischief in the country's most strategic industry.

"There will be no forgiveness for anyone. Traitors are traitors. They can't come back and they won't come back," the president said earlier this month as he swore in a new, firmly pro-government management of PDVSA.

This means that the former PDVSA employees are banking on Chavez being pressured or voted out of office well before he completes his current term due to end in early 2007.

The president has resisted opposition calls for early elections. But his government says it accepts the idea of a binding recall referendum which under the constitution can be held after August 19, half-way through Chavez's current term.

"He's going, before August," said Hernandez optimistically.

Opposition leaders struggling to negotiate a deal on elections with the government have promised the fired PDVSA workers their reinstatement will be a condition of any political agreement. Government negotiators have dismissed this demand as a non-starter but the strikers see it as a lifeline.

SABOTAGE DENIED

But the PDVSA rebels insist they will not go back while the company remains under Chavez loyalists, such as the current president, former left-wing guerrilla Ali Rodriguez. He served as secretary general of the oil exporters' cartel OPEC before he took over as PDVSA president last year following the coup.

Chavez has called for the arrest of the oil industry strikers, accusing them of seriously damaging the national economy and sabotaging the installations they abandoned.

State prosecutors issued arrest orders for seven leading PDVSA strikers, forcing them into hiding, but an appeals court later quashed the orders, alleging legal flaws.

The strikers deny any sabotage and say the faults, fires and oil spills that have occurred at refineries and fields in the last few months were caused by inexperienced personnel and troops brought in by the government to replace them.

Nevertheless, the government says it is gradually restoring the country's oil operations to normal. The strikers dispute this, saying the company will never recover its former output and export levels unless the fired workers are reinstated.