www2.ocregister.com The Orange County Register

War in Iraq. Terrorists in Afghanistan. Violent druglords in Colombia. Political upheaval in Venezuela. General lawlessness in Somalia.

The list of places Americans cannot or should not visit is long and getting longer by the month since the 9-11 attacks and conflict with Iraq. There are currently 35 countries for which the State Department has issued an official "travel warning," the equivalent of an official "no go" recommendation. The government bans travel to only two countries: Libya and Iraq. For the other countries, the State Department strongly warns against travel, saying it cannot guarantee the safety of citizens. The rest of the list:

Middle East/Near East: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel (including the West Bank and Gaza), Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Somalia

Central Asia: Tajikistan

Africa: Algeria, Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo-Kinshasa, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Libya, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Zimbabwe. Latin America: Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia

Far East: Indonesia

Europe: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia. Topping it all off is the sweeping "Worldwide Caution," a common issuance since the September 2001 terrorist attacks. Americans are warned to be on their guard everywhere in the world. A special case exists in Cuba, where Americans can travel under some circumstances, but are barred from spending money – a policy routinely circumvented in recent years by travelers who claim the "educational travel" loophole in the law.

The lists change almost daily. For the most current travel warnings and updates, go to the Bureau of Consular Affairs' Web site at travel.state.gov, or contact the Bureau of Consular Affairs, Office of Public Affairs, at (202) 647-5225.

For an interactive map showing State Department travel warnings worldwide, go to www.ocregister.com.

US confident Opec can make up lost oil exports

By Carola Hoyos in London Published: March 20 2003 11:22 | Last Updated: March 20 2003 21:07

The US on Thursday sought to reassure the nervous oil market by expressing confidence that the Opec oil cartel could make up for the loss of Iraq's exports.

Spencer Abraham, the US energy secretary, said that the US was not tapping its emergency oil stockpile and that world supplies were "more than adequate to compensate for any disruption".

Just hours later Opec announced that it would permit its members to ignore their quotas and tap into their spare capacity.

The statement was seen as largely a public relations exercise as most Opec members are already producing above their quota and at their maximum capacity.

The US decision not to dip into the 600m barrels of stocks was in contrast to the last Gulf war. On the day airstrikes began in 1991, the US announced it would sell 33.75m barrels of its oil and sent the oil price tumbling more than $10 a barrel.

"You don't want to use it too early," said Joseph Stanislaw, president of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, pointing out that in 1991 the US decision to tap its inventories was delayed, coming five months after Iraq had invaded Kuwait.

So far the US and the 25 other members of the International Energy Agency, which co-ordinates international stock releases, believe the Opec oil cartel and in particular Saudi Arabia are able to make up for the interruption of Iraqi exports.

Claude Mandil, the IEA's executive director, said yesterday: "Producers are confident they can keep the market adequately supplied and we have been assured that they will make every effort to do so."

But movements in oil prices on Thursday highlighted the volatility that the war could cause when news surfaced that the Iraqi regime may have begun to sabotage their oil fields.

Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, on Thursday said the Iraqi regime may have set fire to three or four oil wells in the south of the country. He said: "It is a crime for that regime to be destroying the riches of the Iraqi people."

The allegations, which were denied by Iraqi officials, initially pushed benchmark Brent oil prices up 75c to a high of $27.50 a barrel.

But prices reversed their gains as doubts over the veracity of the claims grew and traders continued to believe it would be a short war.

If that assumption is proved wrong, prices could yet surpass the $39.99 high the US benchmark hit last month, analysts said. Much will also depend on whether Thursday's allegations of the well fires indicated the beginning of a sustained scorched earth policy, in which case it could take years rather than months for Iraq's oil exports to return to the market after the end of the war.

news.moneycentral.msn.com March 20, 2003 05:05:00 AM ET By Tom Ashby

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices tumbled to three-month lows on Thursday after the United States began bombing Iraq and dealers bet on a swift U.S. victory with little disruption to Middle East supply.

OPEC exporters pledged to fill any supply gap from the conflict in the oil-rich Gulf, while the West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, said it saw no reason to release emergency stocks for the time being.

Hours after U.S. cruise missiles hit targets in Baghdad, officials in neighboring Kuwait said crude output was normal, despite two Iraqi missiles hitting the north of the country.

Supplies from the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, were also running smoothly, shippers said.

Benchmark Brent crude oil fell 53 cents to $26.22 per barrel, having touched a three-month low of $25.50.

Brent futures have shed 25 percent of their value in the last six days on a massive bet by investment funds that war will end quickly without major damage to oil installations.

U.S. crude futures fell 75 cents to $29.31.

``The war premium is diminishing on a growing certainty that coalition forces will prevail and allow Iraq to increase production,'' said Peter Gignoux of Schroder Salomon Smith Barney.

Industry consultant Geoff Pyne said there were still dangers ahead that could drive prices back up.

``Most obviously, there is a danger that Saddam may blow up the Iraqi oilfields,'' he said.

Iraqi Oil Minister Amer Rasheed denied a Kuwaiti television report that oil wells near the southern city of Basra were on fire.

OPEC TO FILL SHORTFALL

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it would tap its spare capacity to make up for any shortage from Iraq. OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar said he had spoken with cartel members following the U.S. attack.

``As a result of those consultations, I am herewith reiterating OPEC's resolve to make up for any supply shortfall resulting from developing events,'' he said in a statement carried on OPEC's official news agency.

``To this end, member countries have pledged to use, in the interim, their available excess capacities to ensure continued supply.''

A Saudi source said OPEC's leading producer was poised to respond to any oil supply disruptions following the U.S. attack on neighboring Iraq. However, he also said that world markets were currently well supplied.

The market is well supplied. What everyone fears is Saddam Hussein burning the oilfields,'' said the Saudi source. Events are going to be the dictating factor here.''

Riyadh has already ramped up production well beyond nine million barrels daily -- versus an OPEC quota of eight million -- in part to cover outages from strike-hit Venezuela.

The International Energy Agency said there was no need for import-dependent Western nations to release emergency stocks as it was confident OPEC could cover the shortfall.

At the precise hour we speak, I think it is not necessary (to release stocks),'' IEA executive director Claude Mandil told Reuters. We had a very strong statement from OPEC, which has said they will ensure any shortfall and we are confident they will do their best.''

Iraqi exports have ground to a virtual halt this week after the United Nations evacuated its staff overseeing Baghdad's oil-for-food program.

The International Energy Agency, which oversees some four billion barrels of oil inventory in 26 industrialized countries, said a release would become necessary only in case of a shortage that could not be covered by OPEC.

Iraqi Oil Sabotage Concerns Loom in War

By BRUCE STANLEY The Associated Press Thursday, March 20, 2003; 5:37 AM

Saddam Hussein may have organized a meticulous plan for sabotaging Iraq's oil fields in a scorched-earth tactic designed to cripple Iraqi production.

The oil industry has buzzed with reports in recent weeks that Iraqis are rigging their wells with explosives, hoping to slow a U.S.-led attack and making the country's oil wealth worthless for any new government.

"We can confirm reports that (Saddam) has taken measures to booby trap oil wells by wiring the wells so that one person can blow them up," said Defense Department spokeswoman Megan Fox.

"If the worst happens and he does detonate something that causes the oil wells to catch fire, we'll do everything we can. Those assets belong to the Iraqi people, and as much as possible we'd like to keep them intact," she said.

In 1991, Iraqi troops needed just a few days and some plastic explosives to destroy more than 700 well heads and turn Kuwait's occupied oil fields into a desert inferno.

A loss of oil from Iraq - home to the world's second-largest oil reserves - could crimp supplies for importing countries, including the United States, which depends on Iraq for 2 percent of all the crude it consumes.

However, both Saudi Arabia and Venezuela have pledged to keep the oil flowing in wartime.

Oil exports are also a major source of the money that would be needed to pay for Iraq's reconstruction after a war. Because of their strategic importance, the Defense Department says it will try to secure Iraq's oil fields quickly to prevent Iraqi forces from damaging the country's 1,685 wells.

When Iraqi troops retreated from Kuwait in February 1991, they attached plastic explosives to well heads and piled sandbags against them to direct the force of the explosions for maximum effect.

The result was geysers of burning crude at 603 wells, serious damage at more than 100 others and widespread environmental degradation. Teams of firefighters from the United States, Canada and eight other countries worked from April until November to put out the fires.

Most of the teams used sea water pumped through Kuwait's empty oil pipelines to battle the fires. The heat was so intense, at more than 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit, that water sometimes continued boiling on the ground for two days afterward, said Mark Badick of Safety Boss, Inc.

"We've had fire helmets melt on our heads," said Badick, whose Calgary-based firm put out 180 of the Kuwaiti well fires.

Firefighters from Hungary had a different technique, using two jet engines mounted horizontally on a tank chassis - a homemade vehicle they called "Big Wind" - to blast flame-retardant foam at the fires.

It took Kuwait more than two years and $50 billion to restore its oil output to prewar levels. If Iraq sabotaged its oil fields, any cleanup could take far longer and cost much more.

Iraq's fields and pipelines are badly run-down after 12 years of U.N. economic sanctions. Its fields are also much farther from the sea than those in Kuwait, meaning a ready source of water might not be so easily available.

Destruction could be especially bad if Iraqis set off explosives underground, deep within the well shafts themselves. If that happened, firefighters would have to drill a new "relief well" and pump a mixture of sand, gel and mud into each damaged shaft to try to plug it up and stop the blowout.

"It's a long, arduous process," Badick said. Whereas he and his crews put out as many as five fires a day in Kuwait, cleaning up after a single underground explosion can take two months.

Even if the Iraqis did booby-trap their oil fields, Manouchehr Takin, an analyst at the Center for Global Energy Studies, said Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and other OPEC member countries could increase production to offset Iraq's 2 million barrels a day in exports.

Saudi Arabia, which has the world's largest crude reserves, repeatedly has suggested it would boost its output to keep supplies flowing. Also, the United States and other oil importing nations could tap their 4 billion barrels in strategic petroleum reserves, if necessary, to cover a shortfall.

Brown & Root Services of Houston has drawn up a plan for the Defense Department for containing and assessing any damage to Iraqi oil installations, but the Pentagon so far has awarded no contracts.

The challenge for such companies would multiply if Iraq used chemical, biological or radioactive material to sabotage its oil fields.

Special suits designed to protect a wearer against biological or chemical agents would disintegrate in the heat of a burning well. Firefighters might have no choice but to wait until the fires burn themselves out.

"That's a whole new ball game," said Peter Gignoux, head of the oil desk at Salomon Smith Barney.

Oil extends a week-long slump - Prices swing lower as dealers continue to predict an easy victory for the U.S. in the Iraq war.

March 20, 2003: 5:27 PM EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices Thursday afternoon lost gains notched earlier in the day, as the United States launched a widening offensive on Iraq and dealers predicted an easy victory for Washington.

Prices swung wildly during the day on reports, denied by Baghdad, that three or four oil wells were on fire in the south of the country.

OPEC exporters said they could fill any supply gap from the conflict in the oil-rich Gulf, and said markets already were well supplied. The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, said it saw no reason to release emergency stocks.

Shortly after 2:45 p.m. ET, light crude for May delivery settled $1.24 lower at $28.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as much as 76 cents on reports of oil well fires in Iraq.

Benchmark Brent crude oil fell $1.25 to $25.50 per barrel in London, having touched a three-month low of $25.30.

Oil has shed a quarter of its value in the last week on a massive bet by investment funds that war will end quickly, without causing major damage to oil installations.

"The war premium is diminishing on a growing certainty that coalition forces will prevail," said Peter Gignoux of Schroder Salomon Smith Barney.

Hours after U.S. cruise missiles hit targets in Baghdad, officials in neighboring Kuwait said oil output was normal, despite two Iraqi missiles hitting the north of the country.

Oil tanker traffic from the Gulf, which provides 40 percent of world oil exports, also was running smoothly, shippers said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said he had indications Iraq may have set fire to some wells, but Reuters eyewitnesses said there were no signs of fire at oil fields close to the border with Kuwait.

Iraq stopped exporting oil from its southern fields earlier this week, when United Nations inspectors left the country. Limited exports continued Thursday through a pipeline to the Turkish Mediterranean.

Heating oil for May delivery fell 2.51 cents to 75.9 cents a gallon. May unleaded gasoline price lost 3.76 cents to 89.59 cents a gallon.