www.sltrib.com COMBINED NEWS SERVICES

The price of oil plunged 9 percent Tuesday, falling to its lowest level in more than two months as traders bet that the impending U.S. invasion of Iraq will go smoothly and that global stockpiles of crude are sufficient to offset any supply disruptions. 
The April futures contract fell $3.26 to $31.67 a barrel Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since Jan. 8. 
However, with U.S. supplies low and uncertainty in the Middle East high, traders said petroleum prices probably will remain volatile in the short term. 
"This thing could go right back up," said Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas in New York. "We're still vulnerable because inventories are tight." 
Disaster scenarios suggest an economic recession if the war drags on and Iraq's immense oil fields are set on fire, reducing the volume of oil on world energy markets. 
Most forecasts, however, take a milder position. They predict the price of crude oil could surge briefly into the mid-$40s range as war begins. 
Pump prices gradually would fall in a short war, experts say, as long as Iraqi oil still flows and Persian Gulf oil ports stay free of disruptions by terrorists. 
"You'll have a spike in the price over the first couple of days. But if we have Bush's rosy scenario, the price will come down 10 or 15 cents a gallon fairly soon," said Dennis O'Brien, director of the Institute for Energy Economics and Policy at the University of Oklahoma. 
What is more worrisome than $45 per barrel of oil is the prospect of a prolonged war that erodes the confidence of Americans. Consumers have kept the economy rolling for two years, for example, in large part by buying new cars and trucks at a rate of about 16.8 million vehicles annually, keeping automakers busy and autoworkers employed. 
"If it turns into a quagmire in Iraq, it'll play havoc on consumer confidence and business confidence," said economist Bob Schnorbus, an auto-industry analyst in the Detroit office of the research firm J.D. Power and Associates. 
Schnorbus predicts auto sales will rebound and the industry will wind up with respectable sales of 16.4 million vehicles this year. But the forecast assumes a short and successful war. "If that doesn't happen," Schnorbus said, "the risk of going into another recession is real." 
While consumers brace for what may come, they already have seen a rapid rise in gasoline prices since last year, when crude prices dipped to less than $20 a barrel. 
Analysts contend the rise in pump prices has less to do with uncertainty over Iraq than with the weather. "You have a bunch 

www.vheadline.com Posted: Wednesday, March 19, 2003 By: Robert Rudnicki

Forrest fires are continuing to spread across at least ten hectares of the El Avila national park, stretching from Avenida Baralt to La Florida as fire fighters struggle to get the blazes under control.

The National Guard are on the scene assisting the Metropolitan Fire Brigade in fighting the fires, but strong winds are currently making their jobs much more difficult as the fires continue to spread. The current blazes are around the two hundredth on El Avila in the past year.

Fire fighters are hoping for a change in weather conditions to help them bring the fires under control, but remain concerned about their ability to prevent the blazes from spreading if dry weather and strong winds persist.

12:00 2003-03-19

On the verge of an armed conflict in Middle East, the South American country will play a decisive role to stabilize the oil market

Venezuela, the fifth largest world's oil exporter, will play a strategic role if finally Washington decides to attack Iraq. The South American nation is now prepared to pump over its official quota, after general strike cracked one month ago.

Venezuelan Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel said on Tuesday that the country was currently producing 3.1 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). Speaking to reporters during a visit to Brazil, Rangel said Venezuela's oil industry was returning to normal after the stoppage started Dec. 2 by foes of President Hugo Chavez.

This is of very much interest for Washington as Venezuela is the main US oil supplier and the crisis with Iraq could make prices go haywire. This week, US officials admitted that the country could sell its strategic reserves to keep the prices stable. However, if Venezuela comes back to its pre-strike levels it would not be necessary.

Rangel said since Saturday, Venezuela stopped importing fuel and has returned to refining petrol for export. "We are already producing the petrol that the country consumes, since Saturday we are not importing petrol and products are already being refined for export," Rangel said. According to Venezuelan officials, the OPEC has allowed Caracas to pump over the traditional quota of 2.82 million barrels a day. The country has installed capacity for 4 millions bpd and says now is in 3.1.

However, dissident former employees of state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), thousands of whom were fired by Chavez for their participation in the strike, say the government has only been able to restore oil production to 2.4 million bpd.

Despite the controversy on figures, it is clear that Washington will try to restore good relations with Venezuela, at least during wartime. With the above in mind, Caracas is now of strategic interest for USA, as Bush has found an unexpected crucial allied in Chavez. Venezuela's oil production is of most importance to keep markets calmed while his Army leads the military adventure in Iraq.

Hernan Etchaleco PRAVDA.Ru Argentina

www.boston.com By Associated Press, 3/19/2003

NEW YORK -- The price of oil plunged 9 percent yesterday, falling to its lowest level in more than two months as traders bet that the impending United States invasion of Iraq will go smoothly and that global stockpiles of crude are sufficient to offset any supply disruptions.

The April futures contract fell $3.26 to $31.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since Jan. 8.

However, with US supplies low and uncertainty in the Middle East high, traders said petroleum prices likely will remain volatile in the short term.

''This thing could go right back up,'' said Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas in New York. ''We're still vulnerable because inventories are tight.''

The most recent Energy Department data showed commercial stockpiles of crude at 269.8 million barrels, 18 percent below year-ago levels. Supplies have dwindled as a result of high demand for heating oil in the Northeast and fewer imports from Venezuela, whose oil industry was crippled for months by a nationwide strike.

Yet Bentz and other traders expressed confidence yesterday that the loss of Iraqi crude could be made up elsewhere and that the US government will tap its own 600 million-barrel stockpile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in the event of a supply emergency. European nations have their own stockpiles that could help make up for any supply shortages resulting from war, which could begin as early as tonight.

Furthermore, industry watchers said OPEC producers -- with the exception of Iraq and Venezuela -- all are pumping over their quotas, eager to take advantage of the high prices. That extra supply could hit the market just as demand for gasoline, heating oil and other fuels drops to seasonal lows.

''There's quite a bit of oil in vessels and it's now beginning to hit the consuming areas,'' said Leo Drollas, chief economist of the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies. He said Saudi Arabia may have as much as 50 million barrels in storage or en route to markets.

The United States consumes roughly 19.5 million barrels of crude a day and more than half of that is imported. Fadel Gheit, senior oil analyst at Fahnestock & Co. in New York, said traders are coming to the conclusion that the world has enough oil to meet demand, even assuming that Iraq's daily production of 2 million barrels is taken out of the equation.

Yesterday's decline in oil prices also drove down wholesale prices for gasoline and heating oil. Heating oil for April delivery fell 5.79 cents to close at 85.78 cents a barrel, while gasoline futures dropped 6.52 cents to close at 96.19 cents a gallon.

www.femail.co.uk by JUSTIN DAVENPORT, Evening Standard 19th March 2003

Police have smashed a suspected terrorist plot after seizing home-made bombs at a suburban flat near Gatwick.

Three Portuguese men were arrested after the raid in Langley Green, Crawley, which is under the airport's flight path.

They are being questioned at a police station in Sussex today under the Terrorism Act 2000.

Inspector Geoff Sharnock, of Sussex police, said: "During a routine inquiry two viable, improvised explosive devices were found. They are effectively home-made bombs."

Sussex police are liaising closely with Scotland Yard's Anti-Terrorist Branch in connection with the find last night.

However, officers said it was too early to speculate on a motive. Mr Sharnock said the discovery of the bombs was not being linked to any possible target and the men had not yet been linked to any specific terrorist organisation.

The arrests come a month after tanks and soldiers were deployed at Heathrow after intelligence services uncovered a plot to shoot down a civilian airliner.

They also follow the discovery of a grenade in the luggage of a passenger arriving at Gatwick.

Security is now at its highest level since September 11 amid fears of a terrorist strike in retaliation for the impending invasion of Iraq.

Scotland Yard is preparing to divert hundreds of beat constables on to the streets of central London to patrol high-profile targets.

Sussex police said searches of the men's flat were continuing today. Inspector Sharnock said one man was arrested elsewhere and two were held at the flat.

"Bomb disposal experts have gone into the premises to make sure the devices were safe," he said. Detective Chief Inspector Tony O'Donnell said: "At this stage the search of the address is continuing and it is too early to speculate on the motive behind this incident.

"It has not, at this stage, been linked to any target or specific organisation."

A police cordon was put up near the flat and more than a dozen police officers were guarding the property, above the Jem engraving shop in Langley Parade.

A light could be seen inside the flat behind a green curtain.

Nearby residents were evacuated-from their homes when the search began. The entire parade of shops, which included a bookmakers and a mini-supermarket, was within the police cordon.

Last month Gatwick was shut for several hours when a man was arrested with a live hand grenade after arriving on a flight from Venezuela.

Hasil Mohammed Alan, who had been studying to be a Muslim priest, has been remanded in custody on charges including possessing an article for the purposes of terrorism.