antiguasun.caribbeanads.com Natlie S. Fleming 03/19/2003

Edging on the brink of a war between the United States and Iraq, General Manager of the West Indies Oil Company Ltd. (WIOC) Fyfe Saddler said that his company for the moment, can meet its demands.

He further said that WIOC has an adequate supply in its reserve and consumers have no need to worry.

“We obviously cannot entirely control the world’s market on the supply and demand factor,” Saddler said.

“All we endeavour over the years we have been operating in Antigua, and will continue to do as one of our highest priorities, is to try to maintain security of supply to the people of Antigua, APUA, to the businesses that operate in Antigua and to each and every household,” he added.

“I think without doubt, so far we have succeeded in doing that 100 per cent and will endeavour to the extent of our abilities to be able to do that and I hope we can succeed,” the WIOC head said.

“I think if there is something that dramatically affects the world’s supply of oil products, which we are obviously seeing with some of the issues that we are confronted with in the imminent future, we cannot control that, but we will certainly make best our endeavour to ensure continuity of supply to Antigua & Barbuda,” he said.

With regard to alternative source of supply, in the event its main suppliers Venezuela and Europe fall short, Saddler said, “We have an international network of oil traders and we who are continuously seeking back up, secondary, and even tertiary supply sources in the event that supplies from the main sources such as Venezuela gets disrupted.”

“We hope that we are well equipped as anybody depending on global developments to be able to maintain the security of supply for oil products,” he said.

“We want to make sure whether it is fuel for vehicle, for cooking or its fuel oil that we supply to APUA for electricity generation that all of these product lines are fully supplied to ensure that there aren’t any outages, that tanks don’t dry up and electricity continues 24 hours, seven days per week,” he added.

As to whether there will be additional costs to consumers, Saddler said that is a decision to be taken by the government, but believes that with a looming war, prices to consumers, not only in Antigua & Barbuda but throughout the world will increase.

He wants consumers to adopt a number of energy saving techniques in the event of any higher energy prices.

“In terms of average business or household, clearly there are a number of things one can do to economise – whether it means using your air conditioning less or sharing lifts to and fro from work, and businesses to economise on consumption for electricity – all those things done collectively can have quite an impact on the overall demand factor and apart from responsibility within individual businesses – it stands for each and every individual both personally and in the workplace to do whatever they can to economise,” he said.

“The other thing that consumers can take some reassurance from is the fact that we have fairly large storage capabilities and we are endeavouring to hold as much cushioning stock as we can so if supply lines do get tight that we do have a buffer to achieve that,” Saddler said.

news.bbc.co.uk By Henri Astier BBC News Online

Elf Aquitaine, until its privatisation in 1994, was much more than a oil company - according to prosecutors at the trial of Elf's top managers.

They claim the state-owned firm worked as an unofficial arm of France's murkiest diplomacy.

The close relationship between Elf and French officials is well-documented, and goes back to the presidency of General Charles de Gaulle.

Elf had close links with the French state As the company expanded into Africa in the 1960s and 1970s, Elf paid secret "commissions" to African officials with the blessing of French governments.

By the 1980s Elf had operations in Gabon, Congo Brazzaville, Cameroon, Angola and Nigeria - which, investigators say, were kept well oiled by bribes.

But under Loik Le Floch-Prigent - the man appointed to run Elf by socialist President Francois Mitterrand in 1989 - it is claimed that the system went beyond offering sweeteners to secure deals and foster relations with friendly regimes.

Prosecutors say the commissions paid out and received by Elf rocketed from $50m to $130m a year over Mr Le Floch-Prigent's four-year tenure.

This reflects the fact that during that period, Elf ventured beyond France's African sphere of influence and began buying assets in the North Sea, Germany, Spain, Venezuela, Russia, Central Asia and China.

If the ultimate recipients of the commissions want to have a relationship with such-and-such a French party, it is their business

Loik Le Floch-Prigent, former Elf president
According to investigators, Alfred Sirven - Elf's secretive "director for general affairs" - is said to have handled a fund that was double the size of the one run by the company's man in Africa.

Furthermore, Elf allegedly channelled increasing amounts back to France, where the money found its way to politicians and parties, investigators claim.

As the former socialist foreign minister Roland Dumas recently put it, Elf turned into a "cash-cow".

"Its capital was used to reward African heads of state, but also - one thing leading to another - to bail out certain empty coffers," Mr Dumas said.

In statements made to investigators, Mr Le Floch-Prigent admitted that such illegal payments occurred, but insisted that Elf was just acting as a conduit.

"If the ultimate recipients of the commissions want to have a relationship with such-and-such a French politician or such-and-such a French party, it is their business," he is quoted as saying.

Elf's former boss also says he told Mr Mitterrand that such secret payments could lead to abuse. But - he added - the president insisted that the system set up by General de Gaulle should be retained.

Swallowed secrets

Although 37 former managers are on trial for embezzlement, it is unlikely that politicians who are said to have benefited from the Elf system will ever face justice.

Alfred Sirven once said he knew enough to "topple the Republic 20 times over" - but since his arrest two years ago he has been tight-lipped.

The investigation has not been able to shed light on the entire African operation

Judge Renaud van Ruymbeke
As police caught up with him in the Philippines, Mr Sirven crushed the telephone chip containing details of his latest contacts and ate it - literally swallowing many of his secrets.

Both Mr Sirven and Mr Le Floch-Prigent are serving jail terms, following their 2001 conviction in a separate case connected to Elf saga - the gifts showered on Mr Dumas to try to influence French foreign policy.

Mr Dumas - who was a co-defendant in that case - was cleared on appeal last November.

Judicial investigators have also been frustrated by the lack of government co-operation. The former socialist administration declared that state records on Elf were covered by official secrecy laws.

While prosecutors have examined Swiss bank accounts and say they know how Elf managers used them to acquire properties, jewels, and antiques, they there have drawn a blank on the politically sensitive material.

As Judge Renaud van Ruymbeke, who led the inquiry, put it: "The investigation has not been able to shed light on the entire African operation."

www.newsday.com The Associated Press March 19, 2003, 12:33 PM EST

As the United States and Iraq move closer to war, oil markets seemed to be taking it all in stride. Global crude oil stocks are growing, prices declining and some analysts are talking cautiously of a possible oil glut on the horizon. Lower energy prices probably would follow.

That is, energy experts warned, if a war in Iraq doesn't drag on and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein doesn't torch his oil fields or, in the worst case, finds a way to disrupt other Persian Gulf supplies.

For now, the markets are betting those things won't happen and that the war will be a swift one.

Oil prices dropped by more than $3 a barrel, or about 9 percent, on Tuesday, falling to their lowest in more than two months as traders believed there is enough crude in the system to make up for Iraq's lost production if war erupts.

The price of crude oil for April delivery was down another 82 cents to $30.85 a barrel by midday Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil traders "are beginning .. to realize there's a bit of a glut of oil around," said Leo Drollas, chief economist of the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies.

But that oil has yet to reach the U.S. markets.

The Energy Department said Wednesday U.S. crude oil stocks remained uncomfortably low at 270 million barrels, roughly where inventories have been most of this year and at the minimum industry says is needed for smooth refinery operation. The U.S. stocks increased only slightly over a week ago.

Crude inventories have consistently been 300,000 to 400,000 barrels below a year ago, said Doug MacIntyre, an oil analyst for the Energy Information Administration. Imports also have been down from previous levels, although OPEC producers other than Iraq and strife-torn Venezuela have been pumping more oil for weeks.

The low U.S. inventories reflect transportation delays, but also reluctance by refiners to buy oil when the price has been $35 to $37 a barrel, analysts said.

Much of that oil is now in storage in the Persian Gulf or in tankers on the high seas, say oil analysts. Saudi Arabia is believed to have as much as 50 million barrels in storage in the country and more en route to other storage facilities. That's enough to replace Iraq's 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day for about a month.

Larry Goldstein, president of the private Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, said the markets also have been calmed because the Bush administration has made clear that it's ready to use some of the 600 million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter shortages.

Rep. Billy Tauzin, R-La., chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said this week he is convinced the reserve is capable of providing oil quickly on orders from President Bush. It has shifted "from the fill mode to the flow mode," Tauzin said.

Still, there remains some trepidation among oil traders and analysts should war in Iraq last a while. Crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile in the months to come, they cautioned.

"This thing could go right back up," said Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas in New York, suggesting prices could rebound once fighting erupts. "We're still vulnerable because inventories are tight."

When prices jumped in the weeks before the Gulf War, oil inventories already were high. That helped cushion the impact on prices, which jumped briefly to more than $40 a barrel and then declined rapidly when it became clear that the war would be settled quickly.

The biggest fear in the market is that oil facilities in other Middle Eastern countries, such as Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, could be attacked -- a scenario that would cause oil prices to shoot higher very quickly, said Fadel Gheit, senior oil analyst at Fahnestock & Co. in New York.

Short of that happening, there is plenty of oil, Gheit said, and the recent price declines make clear that for the time being the "war premium" has disappeared. He said prices could drop an additional $5 a barrel in the coming days.

Energy experts say a glut could result if war in Iraq doesn't drag on and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein doesn't torch his oil fields or disrupt other Persian Gulf suppliers.

For now, the markets are betting those things won't happen and that the war will be a short one.

www.forbes.com Posted on Wed, Mar. 19, 2003
FABIOLA SANCHEZ Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela - Hundreds of opponents of President Hugo Chavez rallied Wednesday to show support for a strike leader who dodged charges of treason and rebellion by winning asylum in Costa Rica.

Supporters of Carlos Ortega cheered and waved Venezuelan and Costa Rican flags in front of the Costa Rican embassy in Caracas.

The labor leader slipped into the embassy Friday after hiding from authorities for two weeks. He is waiting for the government to give him safe conduct to Costa Rica, which granted him asylum for "humanitarian reasons."

"I'm here to show him my solidarity," 78-year-old Maria Diaz said at the rally. "He fought against a dictatorship, and I am thanking him for that."

Ortega led a two-month strike designed to force Chavez's resignation or early elections. The strike fizzled last month without achieving its goal but crippled the world's No. 5 oil exporter and cost Venezuela $6 billion. Venezuela was one of the largest U.S. suppliers before the strike.

Opponents accuse Chavez of trampling on democratic institutions and alienating investment with leftist policies. The president says his foes want to oust a democratically elected leader and restore power to two corrupt political parties that ruled Venezuela for four decades.

Foes are pushing to hold a referendum that would end Chavez's rule next year. But the fractious opposition is struggling to recover from the failure of the strike.

The showing of hundreds of people at Wednesday's protest was disappointing for a movement that drew up to 1 million people to marches last year.

Strike leaders urged Chavez's opponents not to give up, saying the president was moving to crack down on adversaries.

"The word is street, street, street and more street. Not one step back!" said Horacio Medina, an executive fired from the state oil monopoly, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., for leading the walkout.

Medina and six other former executives emerged from hiding Tuesday after a judge threw out warrants for their arrest on charges of interrupting and damaging the country's fuel supply. Prosecutors have said they will appeal that ruling.

Co-strike leader Carlos Fernandez, president of Venezuela's largest business association, is under house arrest pending trial for rebellion and instigation.

With Ortega gone, the opposition would lose one of Chavez's boldest foes and one of the few survivors of the political order the president has striven to dismantle.

Ortega, 56, dealt one of the first blows to Chavez by winning the presidency of Venezuela's largest labor union two years ago, frustrating Chavez's attempt to seize control of one of the opposition's only strongholds.

Oil production is recovering. The government says output is 3 million barrels a day - almost what it was before the strike - while fired executives put the figure at 2.4 million barrels.

But problems persist. The government said it would try Thursday to restart the main gasoline producing unit at the El Palito refinery, which has been down for a week because of a mechanical failure. Delays in restarting it could force Venezuela to continue importing gasoline to prevent shortages.

www.visaliatimesdelta.com By Heidi Rowley Staff writer

Since January, the government has issued travel alerts for the following countries:

Algeria, Bahrain, Bolivia, Central African Republic, Columbia, East Africa, Guatemala, Iraq, Israel -- the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Kenya, Laos, Lebanon, Liberia, Mexico, Nepal, Oman, Philippines, Qatar, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Syria, Tanzania, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. See www.travel.state.gov.

Wary travelers are holding off on buying international tickets while they wait for a decision on the war with Iraq.

Wes Rowland, owner of Cruise Experts Agency on Court Street in Visalia, said the impending war and the nation's recently upgraded security alert doesn't affect his staff's everyday workload, but some of his customers have been affected.

"We do have some travelers who have chosen not to go to France," he said. "They're making alternate arrangements."

Before Sept. 11, 2001, Rowland said, March was a busy time of year, with people planning their spring and summer vacations.

"March has definitely been slower," he said. "It's a continued challenge for the travel industry. Certainly there's a decline in European demand."

Some people are opting out of trips to Europe or any air travel, Rowland said, and many are choosing easier, and sometimes cheaper, cruises. Those who do fly are restricting themselves to the United States, including Hawaii and Alaska.

Since the security alert upgrade, Geraldine Bratshon, travel consultant for FirstValue Travel, said her agency has fielded many calls from worried customers who are traveling within the next week. Travel agents are still recommending that customers continue to travel, but also that they be cautious and use common sense.

The State Department recommends that U.S. citizens who travel outside the country "remain vigilant," avoid demonstrations and use common-sense precautions. In a worldwide caution issued in February, the government advised staying away from residential areas, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, schools, hotels, outdoor recreation events, resorts or beaches where Americans are known to gather.

Locally, airlines are restructuring their flight cancellation policies to deal with the threat of war. Bratshon said most airlines have set policies that in the event of war or a red alert, concerned customers can cancel their flights or reservations and get credit for that flight at a later date. No airline or cruise line has said it will refund tickets.

International picture

British Airways announced it would suspend flights to and from Israel and Kuwait beginning today and pull its staff from those countries in light of a travel advisory issued by the British Foreign Office. Thai Airways International is suspending flights from Bangkok to Kuwait and Bahrain beginning Thursday.

"The safety and security of our operation is always our absolute priority, and we would not consider operating any flight unless we were satisfied totally that it was safe to do so," said Spencer Hanlon, British Airways commercial manager in Israel.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. Originally published Wednesday, March 19, 2003