www.nashvillecitypaper.com Commentary by David DeRosa

It didn’t take long for U.S. Secretary of the Treasury John Snow to get in trouble talking about the dollar.

When asked about the dollar’s decline following a hearing before the House Ways and Means Committee, Snow, who has been in his post since February, quipped that he was “not particularly concerned about that.”

So, of course, the currency market declared open season on the dollar, sending it down about one full cent against the euro. Oh, the power of the Treasury secretary’s mouth.

It could have been worse had Snow’s aides not stepped up to declare that there had been no change in Treasury’s strong dollar policy, one that Snow himself supported during his Senate confirmation hearing. That put the breaks on the dollar’s slide, at least for now. The dollar has fallen more than 20 percent against the euro over the past 12 months.

A Railroad man

So, no big deal, you might say. Maybe, except it will probably happen again. The reason is simple: Snow doesn’t know how the market works.

His career was not spent in a trading environment; he was a railroad man. Casey Jones isn’t watching the market’s semaphore. When the Treasury secretary speaks, there can be trouble ahead and trouble behind for the dollar.

The ways of the market mystified Snow’s predecessor, Paul O’Neill, too. He was a paper and aluminum executive. At one point he threw up his hands and declared in so many words: “Why would anyone care what I say?”

Here’s why.

Foreign exchange traders have positions in currencies, long or short the dollar against other currencies. Some of these positions come as a result of making markets in foreign exchange. Others are deliberate bets on the future direction of currencies.

Even a small change in exchange rates can generate sudden, steep trading losses, or profits for that matter.

The foreign exchange market is huge. It trades something on the order of $1.3 trillion a day.

But even a small position, say dollars against the euro in the amount of 1 million euros can get hurt. If the euro moved from 1.0900 to 1.1000 — which is approximately what Snow’s comment caused — there would be a loss of $10,000.

That doesn’t sound like much except that the actual positions in the foreign exchange market are humongous. If that had been dollars against 100 million euros, the loss would be $1 million — all over the course of about one or two minutes.

For most foreign exchange traders, the art of the game is in avoiding getting clipped on short-term moves like what happened yesterday. The point is that the market is like a coiled spring waiting to release.

Good news

Snow did better a day later when he spoke about the energy market. He addressed short- and long-run supply and demand much as you might hear in a course on microeconomics.

He said that high gas prices reflect “the uncertainty about the geopolitical situation. Once we put that behind us, gas prices will return to normal.”

Snow singled out the Middle East situation and Venezuela for driving up oil prices, and said more supply is on the way because “new wells are being brought on stream in Texas and Oklahoma and other places like that.”

On the demand-side, he said “the higher oil prices are going to lead to considerable conservation,” adding that “they already have.”

“With the higher oil prices, people are driving their smaller cars rather than their SUVs. They’re buying smaller cars and cutting back on demand for the SUVs,” Snow said.

There is nothing wrong with that analysis. The energy market is probably going to play out the way he suggests, given enough time. What is revealing is that Snow is a big picture kind of guy — who may be a tad light on the close-up view on how money and foreign exchange markets functions.

David DeRosa, president of DeRosa Research & Trading, is also an adjunct finance professor at Yale School of Management.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 18, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

According to defense lawyer Juan Martin Echeverria, arrest warrants issued against 7 former Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) have been revoked. "The Appeals Court has annulled all the acts of 50th Control Judge Belkis Cedeno.”

Echeverria points out that the court has moved on three things:

Declaring the defense lawyer’s appeal inadmissible, arguing that Echeverria was not qualified to exercise the recourse

Thrown out articles that violate the right to defense, due process, appropriate judge and balance between the parts in question

Declaring the 50th Control Judge absolutely null.

The seven accused oil rebels are: Finance Planning & Control manager Juan Fernandez, Refinery Strategy chief consultant Gonzalo Feijoo, Business Strategy manager Horacio Medina, Human resources labor adviser Edgar Quijano and managers Juan Lino Carrillo, Mireya de Amaya and Juan Santana.

Although it is presumed that the government will not drop charges of economic sabotage against the 7 for organizing the crippling oil stoppage, it will have to go to the courts or the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) to appeal against the order to annul arrest warrants.

allafrica.com March 18, 2003 Posted to the web March 18, 2003 Donald Andoor Port Harcourt

In spite of the brutal assassination of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) chieftain Dr Marshall Harry, the party still went ahead with the flag-off of its presidential rally in Port Harcourt last Saturday. Although the party had planned an elaborate two day programe which was to have kicked off last Friday with a grand finale on Saturday, this was later compressed into a one-day ceremony as a result of the assassination and its devastating effects.

The reason why the party went ahead with the ceremony, according to its national chairman, Chief Don Etiebet was because, "the late Harry had done all arrangements for the event including the speech he was to have read (the speech was read by his son Mr Sunny Marshall Harry)" and for the fact that "today is a day which Dr Harry had always dreamt of ... the party as a family decided to honour him by going ahead with the presidential flag off ceremony which we have dedicated to his honour."

Etiebet who addressed the mammoth crowd at the Libe-ration Stadium, explained that ANPP was not insensitive to the tragedy that had befallen the immediate family members of Dr Harry or the people of Rivers State and the entire South South region but that the party had planned to honour its slain chieftain by bringing his corpse to the stadium "but the forces of reaction did not allow us to take the corpse from Abuja." This was later corroborated by the Chai-rman, Board of Trustees, Rear Admiral Augustus Aikhomu (rtd) in his speech.,

The National Chairman who spent so much time eulogising the leadership qualities of the slain ANPP chieftain recalled that when the leadership of the ANPP took the decision to flag off its presidential campaign in Port Harcourt, "Dr Harry wasted no time in accepting the challenge ... He went ahead and put in his personal resources before asking us for anything ... A true fighter to emancipate the Niger Delta people and a great politician who craved for nothing else but excellence ... we are here to celebrate instead of mourning because we know what he stood for and we are ready to implement what he fought and died for."

He recalled how the slain ANPP leader worked for the success of the PDP in the last elections "but because of the deceit of the PDP government, because the elected officers of PDP have become one and only all knowing, he decided to pull out to work for the ANPP the party of choice, a party to watch, a party to win the presidential and all governorship seats and many others, we have become a target of attack."

Citing the case of Jesus Christ who cried in the hands of his torturers, he appealed to the members of the immediate family of Dr Harry to have solace in God because the slain Harry did not die in vain: "I appeal to all his family and sons as well as all lovers of democracy to celebrate the sacrifice which Dr Harry has made for democracy." As a mark of respect, Etiebet called for a three minutes silence and prayers in honour of the slain politician. Immediately after the three minutes silence, balloons were released in the air as a mark of martyrdom for the late politician.

Son of slain ANPP leader, Mr Sunny Marshall Harry was thereafter called upon to read the speech his late father had prepared before leaving for Abuja where life was snuffed out of him. But before reading his father's prepared text, he made a few remarks of his own. In a cracked voice full of emotion, the younger Harry shouted "ANPP" for three times and for each time the crowd yelled "One Nigeria." And having shaken off the emotion, he rhetorically thanked the killers of his father. "I thank those who killed my father, he was a regional leader or at best a national figure but at his death, he is a celebrated international figure today."

He paused, surveyed the audience and asked "what was his crime?" He did not wait for an answer but continued, "the right thing shall be done; that there should be justice; that the resources meant for the people are used to better their conditions." He told the crowd that "he (Marshall) was not a Martin Luther King but he sure had a dream for Rivers State and Nigeria; that one day Rivers people be they Ikwerres, Okrikas, Ogonis, Ekpeyes, Kalabaris, etc wherever they may be, will one day sit together on one table as brothers and be contented with justice and fair play from misrule and governance."

In a short but powerful moving tribute to his father, Sunny concluded that "I may not be a Marshall Harry and would not pray to be; but I am grateful to God for one thing; that I am the son of a great Marshall Harry," to which the stadium erupted and reverberated with applause.

He warned: "Those that killed my father to achieve success will have death waiting for them at the doorstep of their success" to which the mammoth crowd chorused "Amen".

The young Harry then went on to read the father's speech: "The event we are witnessing today marks the beginning of the end of journey of the corrupt PDP government at all levels that will us-her in a new dispensation of hope, security to life, property, prosperity to our children, youths and women and national security. To-day, we are laying the foundaiton of a just and stable society where equity and fair play will reign supreme in a country where every tribe, no matter how small or big will have the sense of belonging ... "We hear the noise of the PDP priding itself as the largest party in Africa. I tell you that the PDP is nothing but the biggest liability not only to Nigeria but Africa and the entire black world. A few days ago, the PDP members came to this arena to present themselves in their usual selfish and dishonest manner to canvass for votes from the South South people and in the process asked us to vote for continuity. But let me ask, continuity of what? Continuity of devastation of our land and economy? That we vote for continuity of galloping inflation? Continuity of unemployment of our youths? Continuity of insecurity to lives and property ..." And the crowd shouted NO! NO!! NO!!! in disapproval of voting for PDP.

By the time the young Harry was through with the written text his father had prepared, it became clear that the family had endorsed the holding of the rally that very Saturday.

Presidential flagbearer of the party, General Muhammadu Buh-ari who was ushered unto the dais at 4.07 p.m. lamented the brutal assassination of Dr Harry. He promised that the "party will no doubt honour him (Harry) at the appropriate time." The brutal killing of Dr Harry in the nation's capital Abuja, he stressed showed clearly the absence of security in Nigeria. He reiterated the commitment of the party to make the issue of security of lives and property its cardinal priority if elected into office.

Buhari while pledging that the campaign of ANPP will be issue oriented took on the PDP government's inability to tackle skyrocking inflation, the problems facing education, agriculture, environmental and electricity sectors. "We will fight this election on these platforms and by God's grace, we will win. These are issues we will base our campaigns on and not religion, ID card and ethnicity."

Identifying the railways, the textiles and the construction ind-ustry as heavy employers of labour, he said they are on the verge of collapse. He then declared, "All these critical sectors are in recession because of the PDP government's incompetence and its inability to attend to the problems of the economy. From 1999, the railways have lost 100,000 workers, the textile in 1999 employed 250,000, today they employ less than 60,000, many construction firms have closed operations thereby resulting in a loss of over 100,000 jobs. The list is endless...

"what about our currency? In 1999, it was N85 to one US dollar. Today, it is N140 to one dollar ... This government has expended over N3 billion on NEPA. It is worse than before and this government has no answer for any of these problems."

He recalled that since the PDP government came to power, the nation has known no peace. He accused the government of causing most of the ethnic and communal crises since "there is no peace and harmony either in the country or among government officials themselves."

Recalling the discordant tunes amongst the government officials over the ongoing fuel shortage in the country, Buhari noted how one government official attributed it to sabotage, another to the crisis in Venezuela which has shot up oil prices and how another had pro-mised Nigerians that the shortage would be over in one week and queried "which one do we believe? ... This shows there is no harmony in this government. What a shame!"

The ANPP presidential flagbearer who cleared himself of allegations of religious bigotry or that he called on northerners to boycott the ongoing registration of national identity card scheme explained that he was quoted out of context in Sokoto when he addressed moslem faithfuls by a journalist who was not present at the event and can neither hear nor speak Hausa language. He called on Nigerians to disregard allegations that he asked northerners to boycott the registration for the national identity card scheme and queried "How can I register and then ask others not to do same? All these allegations are because of desperation by the PDP members that are afraid of me."

He pleaded with Nigerians to disregard allegations that he is not a democrat by arguing "If I were not a democrat, I could not have joined a political party to seek election and be campaigning here and there and I would not have been calling for a free and fair elections."

But if the rally were to have a prize tag for the best appearance, stage performance, oratorial skills and prowess, the former Senate President and running mate to Buhari, Dr Chuba Okadigbo would have carted away all the prizes at stake. Okadigbo unlike Buhari who quietly slipped into the stadium through the VIP gate behind the state box, entered the stadium from the popular side gate, from the north east flank of the stadium. He came in about five minutes after the master of ceremony had announced the arrival of Buhari and people were beginning to ask where was Okadigbo.

As soon as Okadigbo emerged, there was a stampede from that side of the stadium as a large crowd clustered around him with the shouts of Oyi! Oyi!! Oyi!!! and at same time walking him to the state box. And repeatedly, he waved his horse tail to salute the mammoth crowd as well as acknowledge the shouts of "Oyi."

Okadigbo, spotting an immaculate white Senegalese kaftan over a pair of white trousers with a red cap to match in a theatrical display surveyed his audience left to right, and from right to left. He mounted the dais and was handed the microphone. He then thundered "you have listened to Buhari; will you vote for him?" he queried. "Will you vote Obasanjo out? the crowd yelled "yes." For three times, he thundered the same question and for three times the stadium reverberated "yeeesss!"

He paused, surveyed the audience again and waited for the defeaning applause to die down before he again shouted "God will punish them (killers of Dr Harry wherever they may be." He lampooned the PDP government for its lack of focus and insensitivity about the plight of the suffering masses of this country.

Displaying his theatrical skills as a man in great pains, he went on speaking without a break in his speech about the incompetence of the PDP controlled government. He suddenly bursts into a song "PDP is evil, PDP is evil" to which the crowd joined him.

He explained that as the Senate Chairman on Communal Conflicts, he visited 23 riot spots in different parts of the country and the result is that "only the PDP controlled states had witnessed violent crisis in the last three and a half years." According to him, "it is clear that those crises were being fuelled by the PDP government officials."

Chairman, Board of Trustees of the ANPP, Rear Admiral Augustus Aikhomu in his brief remarks told the gathering that the issue of the onshore/offshore oil dichotomy was not raised by the party's flagbearer because, "to the party it is a constitutional matter and every state must be given its 13 per cent derivation in line with the constitution of Nigeria."

He, however, said the ANPP is opposed to the backdoor arrangement the governors of the Niger Delta region have gone into with President Obasanjo on the onshore/offshore dichotomy bill since the party had accepted the decision earlier taken by the National Assembly on the matter.

Rivers State gubernatorial flagbearer of the party, Chief Sergeant Awuse in his message to the ruling PDP and INEC warned that there should be no rigging in the coming elections. "Those that will try to rig the elections should be inviting trouble because we have the will and capacity to resist any form of rigging." The event was witnessed by all the incumbent ANPP governors, the Presidential Campaign Co-ordinator, Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, former Chief of Army Staff, Major-General Victor Malu, National Vice Chairman North-Central, Major-General Jerry Useni, Senators Musa Adede, Gbenga Aluko, Daniel Saror, Ro-wland Owie, Khairat Abdulrazak, Vincent Osulor and all gubernatorial flagbearers of the party.

www.signonsandiego.com By Frank Green UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER March 18, 2003

San Diego County motorists could spend an extra $600 million or more on gasoline this year if fuel prices remain at record-high levels, according to estimates by local economists and consumer activists.

The potentially huge chunk of displaced cash could spark symptoms of stagflation by pushing up the cost of most consumer goods even as workers' earning power stagnates, as happened when oil prices spiked in the 1970s.

"Every 10-cent increase in fuel prices translates to roughly $5 million a month" transferred to refiners' coffers, said University of San Diego economist Alan Gin.

Gin generated the $600 million estimate based on gasoline sales and vehicle use in the area.

The average cost of a gallon of unleaded regular in the county jumped to $2.22 yesterday, up more than seven cents from a week ago, according to a survey of 550 local service stations by the Utility Consumers' Action Network.

Prices ranged yesterday from $2.09 a gallon at some Arco and Costco outlets to $3.79 a gallon at a Texaco station in El Cajon. Gas cost about $1.40 a gallon this time last year.

Nationwide, fuel prices rose to an all-time high of $1.72 on Friday, the American Automobile Association said.

Fears of a war in Iraq, among other factors, have caused crude oil inventories to drop and prices to soar. In California, prices have been pushed up even more as refiners switch to the new fuel additive ethanol.

A typical family in the county paid $1,349 for gas and oil last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Thus, a 50 percent hike in fuel costs would mean an extra $674 deducted from the family budget.

"That's a very steep jump," said Kelly Cunningham, an economist at the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce. "Consumers have already been getting conservative about spending (because of the impending war against Iraq) and this is another damper."

Gin noted that the $600 million in possible additional fuel costs for the county this year is just a fraction of the area's $100 billion-plus economy.

It is also smaller than the $2 billion in higher bills paid by local ratepayers to electricity generators during the energy crisis of the last two years.

But critics of the oil industry note that $600 million would be enough to cover more than half of the San Diego City Schools system's $1.1 billion budget.

Some consumer activists said yesterday that Gin's estimate may be conservative and that local car owners could have to pay much more for gas if there is a prolonged war against Iraq.

The $600 million figure "seems low," said Charles Langley, the manager of UCAN's gasoline project.

UCAN said it has been inundated with calls and e-mails from members worried that their budgets will be stretched to the breaking point by spiraling fuel costs.

One member lamented that he may have to sell his truck or get a third job to pay his gas expenses.

"I get 12-15 miles a gallon," he wrote in an e-mail to the nonprofit organization. "That's about 13 to 18 cents a mile. I know public transportation is an option, but I like driving and don't want to lose it."

Gin said he expects the first casualties of higher fuel costs to be discretionary items – things like concert tickets and ice cream cones – as consumers spend more on a must-have commodity.

But the price spike will ultimately exert a ripple effect on the economy, as furniture, pizza and other goods cost more to be transported, Gin said.

Gasoline for April delivery rose 1.21 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $1.0525 a gallon in overnight electronic trading yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Futures, which represent wholesale markets, dictate the direction of retail prices.

Gasoline futures are up 54 percent since November, having begun to rally in December with the start of the strike in Venezuela, which had been meeting 10 percent of U.S. oil needs.

They touched a 21-month high earlier this month.

Oil and gasoline futures rose yesterday on the expectation an invasion of Iraq could begin as soon as this week, after the United States and its allies said the United Nations has one day to break its deadlock over the use of force in the Persian Gulf, source of a quarter of the world's oil.

Some government officials are suspicious that the oil industry may also be manipulating the gas supply for profit.

Last week, Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., asked the General Accounting Office to look into allegations that oil companies are shutting down more refineries than usual this season with the possible intention of boosting prices.

Frank Green: (619) 293-1233; frank.green@uniontrib.com

reuters.com Tue March 18, 2003 09:58 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Satellite television operator DirecTV Latin America LLC said on Tuesday it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, as economic turmoil in the region forced the company to restructure its costs and debts.

DirecTV Latin America, the largest pay-television operator in Latin America, has been hammered by recessions and strife in Argentina, Venezuela and Brazil that have resulted in fewer subscribers.

The filing does not apply to the company's parent, Hughes Electronics Corp GMH.N , or to DirecTV Latin America's operating companies in Latin America and the Caribbean, which will continue regular business, the company said. Hughes is controlled by General Motors Corp GM.N .

DirecTV Latin America said it would ask the bankruptcy court to reject contracts that are "uneconomic and not in (the company's) best long-term interests," including a contract to broadcast the 2006 World Cup and a deal with Walt Disney DIS.N to carry the Disney Channel Latin America.

In the United States, Disney and Hughes are embroiled in a dispute over Disney's ABC Family Channel, with DirecTV threatening to drop the channel rather pay the 35 percent price increase that Disney is demanding.

DirecTV Latin America, owned in part by Latin American media conglomerates Cisneros Group and Grupo Clarin, said Hughes has agreed to provide $300 million in debtor-in-possession financing, subject to bankruptcy court approval. The filing was made in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Delaware.

DirecTV Latin America also said that Kevin McGrath has retired as chairman, and that Larry Chapman has been named president and chief operating officer, effective immediately.