www.businesswire.com MAR 17,2003 21:32 PACIFIC 00:32 EASTERN Business Editors

    NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 17, 2003--Standard & Poor's--ASIA-PACIFIC UPDATE:     Here is the current lineup of top articles and research from Standard & Poor's:

All times U.S. Eastern. For complete details see ratingsdirect.com or standardandpoors.com.

PUBLISHED:

RESEARCH REPORTS

CORPORATES
--  Enersis and Endesa Chile Announced Mandate to Launch
    Syndication of US$2.3 Billion Bank Loans
--  S&P Report Says War With Iraq Not an Immediate Threat to U.S.
    Health Care Credit
--  Increasing Longevity in the U.S. Adds More Pressure to State
    and Local Government Creditworthiness
--  U.S. Economic Forecast: A Foggy Bottom Crystal Ball

GLOBAL FIXED INCOME
--  Europe Investment Grade Market: Not Much of a Lull After the
    Storm

FINANCIAL SERVICES
--  Bank Contingency Planning in the Gulf Provides Cushion in
    Event of War in Iraq
--  Delays in Stock Disposals Could Pressure Japanese Bank Ratings
--  U.S. Reverse Mortgage Suit to be Monitored by Standard &
    Poor's
--  Strong Pricing Environment Not the Expected Boon for U.S.
    Property/Casualty Insurers
--  Accounting Rules and Business Needs at Odds

SOVEREIGNS
--  Italian Regions' Ability to Manage Health Care Costs Remains
    Key for Future Creditworthiness
--  The Hong Kong Budget: What Does It Mean for Hong Kong's Future
--  Venezuela's Political Crisis Will Have Long-Term Impact on
    Ratings
--  War in Iraq Not to Have Ratings Impact on European Strategic
    Oil Reserve Management Agencies

STRUCTURED FINANCE
--  Aussie RMBS: In Search of Sub-Debt Investors Special Report
    Published
--  Rating Transitions 2002: Global CDO and Credit Default Swap
    Rating Performance
--  U.S. Retail: What Will CMBS Do With All of the Space?
--  Italy's First Wholly Synthetic ABS Deal Could Serve as
    Blueprint for Traditional Asset Classes

RATING ACTIONS

CORPORATE RATINGS
--  Aristocrat's 'BBB-' Rating on Negative Outlook
--  United Expects to Meet Its First Covenant Test; Some Ratings
    Still CreditWatch Negative
--  Remington Products Co. L.L.C. Outlook Revised to Positive
--  York International Corp. Long-term Ratings Lowered on
    Challenging Industry Conditions
--  Radnor Holdings Corp. Ratings Raised, Off CreditWatch On
    Completed Refinancing
--  Omnicom Group Inc. Ratings Lowered, Off Watch
--  Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc. Rating Still on Watch
    Negative Amid Ongoing SEC Probe
--  CommScope Inc. Placed on CreditWatch Negative, on Sustained
    Weak Operating Performance

FINANCIAL SERVICES RATINGS
--  Ratings on M & T Bank Corp. Raised and Removed from
    CreditWatch
--  Chubb Corp. Pending Senior Note Issue Rated 'A+'; On WatchNeg
--  Outlook on Charles Schwab Corp. Revised to Negative; Ratings
    Affirmed
--  Argonaut Group Inc.'s Property/Casualty Subsidiaries 'BBB+'
    Ratings Remain on Watch Negative

STRUCTURED FINANCE RATINGS
--  Ratings on Various Metris Master Trust-Related Transactions
    Placed on CreditWatch Negative
--  Rating on SPIRET Trust Series 2002-1 Lowered and Removed From
    CreditWatch Negative
--  CNC Pass-Through Certificates Series 1994-1 Ratings Affirmed
    and Off CreditWatch

RESEARCH ANALYSIS

CORPORATES
--  Renault S.A.
--  Electronic Data Systems Corp.
--  Dow Chemical Co. (The)

FINANCIAL SERVICES
--  Westpac Banking Corp.
--  China Construction Bank
--  Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau
--  China Construction Bank
--  United Guaranty Residential Insurance Co.

SOVEREIGNS
--  Morocco (Kingdom of)
--  Chile (Republic of)





--30--GM/sf*

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KEYWORD: NEW YORK INTERNATIONAL ASIA PACIFIC
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: BANKING BOND/STOCK RATINGS
SOURCE: Standard & Poor's

www.sciam.com March 17, 2003

Why the Mayan society, which prospered in the eighth and ninth centuries in Central America, collapsed remains a mystery. Numerous theories, from overpopulation and class warfare to climate change and environmental stresses, have been put forward over the years to explain the downfall. Now the most detailed sediment analysis yet, published in the current issue of the journal Science, further implicates climatic variation. It suggests that a prolonged dry spell, punctuated by three more severe droughts, could have been chiefly to blame for the civilization's demise.

Gerald H. Haug, now at Potsdam's Geoscience Center, and his colleagues studied a sediment core collected from the Cariaco Basin, located off the coast of northern Venezuela. By analyzing the levels of titanium, which is indicative of the amount of rainfall, the scientists determined that the area around the Yucatán peninsula (now part of Mexico) suffered three periods of very low rainfall around A.D. 810, 860 and 910. The droughts were relatively short-lived, lasting between three and nine years, the authors report. They note that these findings agree with archaeological evidence that suggests that Mayan society collapsed in three phases over the same time period.

The latest results will not be the last word on the Mayan collapse, however. Indeed, the authors note that "no one archaeological model is likely to capture completely a phenomenon as complex as the Mayan decline." No doubt scientists will be uncovering the secrets of this sophisticated society for years to come. --Sarah Graham

www.weeklystandard.com The French, Solzhenitsyn, light rail, Venezuela, and more. 03/17/2003 12:00:00 AM

I have often wondered what Congress's real position is regarding democracy and the rights of people in Venezuela (Thor Halvorssen, Comandante Chavez's Friends). Would they accept, from any U.S. president, just a small percentage of what Chavez has done in Venezuela? Is Chavez's style of democracy what they want for theirs constituents?

--Henrique Lander

Thank you to Thor Halvorssen for saying exactly what all of us have been trying to tell the world about Hugo Chavez for the past four years! Please America, don't abandon us, we are your most fervent admirers in South America.

Hugo Chavez was elected as a democrat by a country suffering from corruption, but what is happening now, is worse than anything anyone can imagine.

--Maruja Beracasa

www.petroleumnewsalaska.com Gary Park PNA Canadian Correspondent

Energy consultant says LNG could claim 15% share of North American market by 2020; FERC eases regulations for import, storage, regasification facilities

The emergence of liquefied natural gas as a supply source in the United States could slow the pace of conventional frontier projects, including the Arctic, an energy consultant told a Calgary conference.

Benjamin Schlesinger, founding president of Benjamin Schlesinger and Associates Inc. of Maryland, said two or three new terminals could proceed in the Lower 48 by 2010.

That in turn could mean development of Arctic gas “will have to wait a little bit longer,” while the brakes could also be applied to plans for delivering more gas from offshore Nova Scotia to New York.

Schlesinger forecast that LNG’s share of the overall North American market is expected to climb from 1.4 percent to 5 percent by 2020 and could reach as high as 15 percent, with at least 15 new LNG receiving terminals proposed for the United States, Canada and Mexico.

As trading of LNG intensifies in the Atlantic region, eastern U.S. and Canadian gas markets will experience improved gas supplies, he said.

TransCanada bullish on LNG Hal Kvisle, president and chief executive officer of TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., is one of the most bullish supporters of LNG, predicting its contribution to the North American market will grow to 5.9 billion cubic feet per day by 2015.

In recognition of LNG’s potential, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has now started listing LNG as a significant potential supply source, while in mid-December the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission gave added impetus to LNG by easing regulations to open the way for import, storage and regasification facilities.

“We want to encourage participation of LNG in U.S. markets,” FERC commissioner William Massey said at the time. He said the policy changes will be the catalyst for development of new terminals.

FERC will now treat LNG terminals on the same terms as gas production plants, with regulation applying to services starting at the tailgate as regasified LNG enters the interstate pipeline network.

In the case of the planned 1.5 billion cubic feet per day Hackberry, La., LNG terminal due to come on stream by January 2007, FERC will not require commission-approved cost-based rates, nor an open access tariff for the new terminal services because the project sponsors will carry the full risk of the project.

But FERC chairman Pat Wood III emphasized that his agency will assert its jurisdiction if it receives complaints of discrimination or anti-competitive behavior.

Flurry of applications in Mexico Propelled by the California power crisis two years ago, Mexico’s energy regulator is dealing with a flurry of applications to build LNG facilities on its Pacific coast to bolster U.S. supplies and reverse the flow of gas between the two countries.

Currently, Mexico is importing about 600 million cubic feet per day from the U.S., largely because production of its vast gas reserves is controlled by state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex).

Although LNG developers on both coasts of Mexico are waiting for new regulations governing natural gas storage, Marathon Oil Corp., ChevronTexaco, Royal Dutch/Shell and Sempra Energy have decided to submit proposals for LNG terminal permits in Baja California. They could import gas from as far away as Indonesia for sale in Mexico and the United States.

Schlesinger told the Canadian Energy Research Institute conference May 3 that Venezuela’s proved gas reserves of 140 trillion cubic feet could also be a major supply source for the U.S. East Coast.

West Africa could also enter picture So long as gas prices hold steady in the range of US$3.50-$4.50 per million British thermal units they should be sufficient to attract LNG supply.

Bob Nimocks, president of Zeus Development Corp., a Houston energy consultant, told the Calgary conference that West Africa could also enter the supply picture as producers such as Royal Dutch/Shell and ChevronTexaco move towards their 2008 commitment to stop flaring associated gas, which currently consumes about 4 billion cubic feet per day.

He said it would cost C$2-$2.50 per million Btu to deliver West African LNG to the U.S. East Coast, but the abundance of gas available from that region will intensify pressures to find an outlet.

Reinforcing the belief that LNG will become a key source of future U.S. gas needs, a December report by Standard & Poor’s said the U.S. Atlantic Basin is poised to become the “next major growth market” in response to economic growth, environmental concerns about conventional energy sources and declining domestic production.

Noting the 6 percent decline in U.S. gas production in 2002, S&P said the annual rig count needs to leap to 1,000 from 720 just to keep gas supplies flat.

But the growth in gas-fired power generation capacity and higher gas prices have contributed to the emergence of a “respectable spot or short-term LNG market.”

The fundamentals for LNG are continuing to improve, with liquefaction costs in the Atlantic Basin dropping as low as $200 per ton from more than $500 in 1988, S&P said.

It said that expansion projects where ample supplies exist, such as Trinidad & Tobago, Nigeria, Algeria, Oman and Qatar, are also lowering their all-in costs of liquefaction, accompanied by a lowering of the netback price needed to justify new investments, the report said.

www.petroleumnewsalaska.com Petroleum News Alaska Staff

North Slope crude hit $37.48 per barrel on March 12, reaching a 12-year high according to Alaska Department of Revenue records.

The spike occurred after the U.S. Department of Energy announced oil inventories had dropped to 269.8 million barrels the week before, the lowest number in almost 28 years.

The shortfall came as Venezuela, the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, continues to struggle to rebuild oil production after a general strike. The South American country’s pre-strike production had been 3 million barrels a day. Lacking that output, U.S. imports fell 12 percent for the week ending March 7 to 7.62 million barrels.

The news came as oil traders worry that supplies will be further disrupted if there’s a war in Iraq. Conflict in the Persian Gulf could not only end Iraq’s exports of 1.7 million barrels a day but could also threaten exports from other major producers such as Saudi Arabia.

Lawrence Eagles, an analyst with GNI-Man Financial in Belfast, was quoted in news reports as saying, “It shows that the U.S. market is still undersupplied by about one million barrels per day.”

Prices fell slightly on March 13 On March 13, news reports said oil prices fell by approximately 4 percent following news that the United States’ efforts to garner support for a new U.N. resolution on Iraq could extend into the week ending March 21, potentially further delaying a Middle East war.

News that Japan plans to sell 300,000 barrels per day from its state reserves should U.S.-led forces begin attacking Iraq, according to a Nihon Keizai Shimbun report, added to the March 13 slide, news reports said.

DOE said there were also sharp drops in U.S. gasoline inventories, which would normally be growing as stockbuilding starts for the summer driving season.

News reports said analysts expected the March 13 drop to be short-lived.