www.hpj.com Monday, March 17, 2003  Good Evening!   Venezuela plans to produce above its OPEC crude oil output quota to make up for lost revenue during a two-month strike, the oil minister said Friday, The Associated Press reported.

Rafael Ramirez wouldn't say how much Venezuela would pump above its 2.8 million barrels a day quota. Output is 2.9 million barrels a day now, the government says. "We have to do it gradually so as not to affect the oil market too much," Ramirez told state television station Venezolana de Television. "It will reach a level that will compensate what we stopped selling in the market."

Ramirez said Venezuela had an agreement with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries allowing it to overproduce.

Venezuela is recovering from a political strike that petered out last month. Oil production reached a low of 200,000 barrels a day at the height of the walkout, which cost Venezuela $6 billion. It also forced Venezuela to spend $540 million on gasoline imports to make up for severe shortages. Executives fired from the state oil monopoly for participating in the strike say production is only 2.1 billion barrels a day. The government fired almost half the 35,000-strong work force at Petroleos de Venezuela SA for walking out.

On Thursday, Venezuela brought its largest catalytic cracker back online, bringing the country a step closer to resuming gasoline exports to the United States. Venezuela was the world's fifth-largest exporter before the strike. Venezuela crude and refined products accounted for 14 percent of U.S. oil imports last year.

Venezuela also announced Thursday that it had stopped importing gasoline.

Ramirez said there was an $8 to $10 premium on international oil prices because of U.S. threats to lead an attack on Iraq. He said there was enough world production to meet demand.

money.cnn.com

Breakdown of U.N. talks, imminent military action sparks trader buying; London halted by protests. March 17, 2003: 10:42 AM EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - NYMEX crude oil futures rose $1 early Monday as the United States, Britain and Spain ended diplomatic efforts to win U.N. approval for an ultimatum to Iraq to disarm or face war.

That, analysts said, now clears the way for the three nations to launch a war without a vote in the Security Council.

At 10:18 a.m. EST (1518 GMT), NYMEX April crude was up 82 cents at $36.20 a barrel, near an early high of $36.40. It ended overnight ACCESS trade up 57 cents at $35.95.

On Friday, the contract ended at 63 cents lower at $35.38, adding to a $2.50 loss in two days as traders speculated that a war in Iraq would be short.

The NYMEX open outcry session opened normally, unaffected by an interruption in trading on the International Petroleum Exchange in London by anti-war protesters.

Before the interruption, May Brent crude, debuting in the front-month spot, traded 32 cents higher at $30.45 a barrel.

IPE trading was to resume at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT), London dealers said.

Prices rose overnight on fears that Iraq oil exports, currently at 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), would stop once U.N. arms inspectors were pulled out of Iraq.

Just as the market opened, U.S. Rep. Bill Tauzin, R-La., said the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) had been switched to "flow mode" and was prepared to be put in the market if ordered by President Bush. That nipped the market's budding rally.

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein said early Monday that while Iraq had weapons of mass destruction in the past, it no longer had them.

The U.S. has vowed to lead a coalition to disarm Saddam, who it accuses of violating U.N. disarmament resolutions, with or without U.N. support. Bush will address the nation at 8 a.m. ET, and is expected to say Saddam has a limited time to leave Iraq in order to avoid war.

"Although last-minute diplomacy will be a feature today, the market is factoring in at least a 95 percent possibility of military action and will begin attempting to discount the war's impact on oil field damage in the early stages of a conflict," said Jim Ritterbusch, energy market analyst and president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Illinois.

Nevertheless, Ritterbusch said "despite some minor chart damage, the April (crude) contract's quick rebound keeps the bullish case alive," keeping in mind the approach of a war and Thursday's April contract expiration.

Iraq's oil exports under the U.N. oil-for-food program, currently averaging about 1.7 million bpd, will halt when U.N. inspectors are pulled out of the country, U.N. officials said Monday.

The two top U.N. arms inspectors are expected to advise the U.N. Security Council on Monday that their inspection teams should be pulled out of Iraq within 24 hours, the officials said.

All U.N. staff will be evacuated once the order is given by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, including weapons inspectors and oil-for-food monitors handling humanitarian goods and oil export programs, the officials said.

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed El Baradei said he had been advised by the United States that U.N. weapons inspectors should be withdrawn from Iraq.

The impetus to remove inspectors followed an ultimatum from Bush on Sunday that the world body had just one more day to give its blessing to a resolution sanctioning the use of force to rid Iraq of suspected weapons of mass destruction.

The divided Security Council had been expected to begin consultations at 10 a.m. (1500 GMT) Monday in New York.

NYMEX April heating oil futures were up 1.53 cents at 95.60 cents a gallon, after ending ACCESS trade 0.93 cent higher at 95.00 cents.

NYMEX April gasoline futures were 2.01 cents higher at $1.0605 a gallon, after ending overnight trade higher at $1.0535.

Late Sunday, the U.S. State Department said it had ordered non-essential diplomats and all embassy dependents out of Kuwait, Israel and Syria because of the threat of war. The notice mirrored U.S. precautions before the 1991 Gulf War.

Iraq denies possessing weapons of mass destruction and President Saddam Hussein vowed that Iraq would fight back "anywhere in the world" if invaded.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has pledged that it will fill any shortfall in supplies if war disrupts oil flows.

Kuwait, Iraq's southern neighbor and the main launching pad for any military strike, said a U.S.-led war in Iraq was probably not more than 10 days away.  

www.newsok.com 2003-03-17 By Brittney Guest The Oklahoman

EDMOND -- When Carlos Sanchez was 6 years old, he attended a musical performance in his native country, Venezuela, that would cultivate a lifelong passion for one instrument.

The first time he heard it, he knew he liked the sound of the trumpet, and one week later, his father took him to a conservatory to begin lessons.

His passion has earned 14-year-old Sanchez, now a student at Bishop McGuinness High School in Oklahoma City, the Young Artist Award from the International Trumpet Guild.

The award is designed to recognize high school students for their talent and accomplishments with the trumpet, said James Klages, Sanchez's trumpet instructor and professor of trumpet at the University of Central Oklahoma.

Klages said Sanchez was chosen because of his age and the caliber of his performance.

However, there could be one more reason -- Sanchez plays in three college musical groups.

Although Sanchez is a member of the Oklahoma Youth Symphony, his participation in UCO's Jazz Band II, trumpet choir and summer concert band have set him apart and provided invaluable experience.

"People get confused because they think I go to the university, but I'm not," Sanchez said. "I go to high school."

Attending McGuinness, playing the trumpet three to four hours a day and performing across the country makes for a busy schedule for Sanchez.

Despite the schedule, Sanchez has found time to improve his English.

When Sanchez and his family came to Oklahoma to escape a failing economy and unemployment, he knew little English.

That barrier did not exist with the trumpet, and Klages said Sanchez is "confident" and "fearless."

However, playing continues to present him with challenges. Sanchez admits he still has much to learn about the trumpet.

Playing with the jazz band has given him the opportunity to expand his knowledge of the instrument, he said.

Jazz has taught him to improvise -- or invent music on the spot.

It is hard because knowledge of scales is needed to improvise, Sanchez said.

The scales are musical tones arranged in order of pitch.

Klages said Sanchez has a good sense of phrasing.

"He doesn't just play a series of notes," Klages said. "He takes a series of notes and makes a sentence. He's a musician."

www.nationalpost.com Paul Vieira Financial Post

The combination of higher interest rates, soaring energy prices and a stronger dollar are each contributing to pessimism among Canada's business leaders over the country's economic fortunes, a survey suggests.

About 60% of corporate executives indicated in the latest instalment of the Financial Post's CEO poll that the combination of the three will have a negative impact on the Canadian economy, compared to 20% who suggested a positive effect. The remainder said either there would be no material impact (17%) or did not know (3%).

"There was some concern -- about interest rates, oil prices, and in that context, the Canadian dollar," said Conrad Winn, president of COMPAS Inc., which conducted the poll.

"And in the context where oil prices will impact on the American economy, and therefore, by inference, on the Canadian economy, rising interest rates and a rising Canadian dollar would not be helpful, because we rely on the U.S. market so much for exports."

New data released late last week suggest the U.S. economy is facing renewed difficulties, as U.S. consumer confidence hit its lowest level in more than a decade and the country's producer price index climbed 1% in February, largely due to increasing energy costs.

Canadian chief executives are most concerned about the potential drag that high oil prices and interest rates will have on the economy.

The price of a barrel of West Texas intermediate crude has recently reached heights not seen since the Persian Gulf war of the early 1990s, largely because of a strike in Venezuela and possible military action in Iraq.

Of the business executives surveyed, 68% suggested rising energy costs would have a negative impact on the economy, compared to 13% who said it would be a positive, given Canada's energy-rich economy.

Said one respondent: "Care should be taken not to assume that economic benefits flowing from rising energy prices ... will necessarily offset more immediate and negative effects of higher energy prices on the majority of Canadian businesses, whether in the form of higher production costs or simply as consumers shift more of the disposable dollars in their pockets" from buying goods to paying higher energy bills.

Also, CEOs expressed concern over the Bank of Canada's recent move to increase interest rates.

About 58% of business leaders said raising interest rates would have a negative effect on corporate performance, with only 14% saying it would be positive.

This month, David Dodge, the central bank governor, raised the bank rate, the interest rate it charges commercial banks, to 3.25% from 3%, in an attempt to cool inflation.

Moreover, the central bank said further increase are on the way, even though there are worries about a slowing economy and a possible war in Iraq.

The increase in interest rates, and the overall performance of the Canadian economy, has helped push the country's dollar upward. But that is of concern to CEOs as well, given export-oriented companies benefited from a low loonie.

"A reasonable inference is that a stronger dollar, on its own, is not enough to instill confidence in business leaders," Mr. Winn said. "The underlying economic circumstances appear to be as important to fostering confidence as the performance of the dollar itself."

The Web-based survey of CEOs, sponsored by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, was conducted between March 11 and 13 and involved 155 business leaders. This study of Canadian business leaders is considered more accurate by COMPAS than other surveys of the same size, as it is drawn from a smaller community., Similar surveys of 155 respondents drawn from the general public are deemed accurate to within approximately eight percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

FP CEO POLL:

• Some economists have been forecasting near-term growth in energy-rich provinces as a result of rising energy prices. To what extent are rising energy costs affecting business positively or negatively? Please use a 7-point scale where 7 means very positively and 1 the opposite.

Very positively 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 DNK Very negatively

7: n/a 6: 5% 5: 7% 4: 15% 3: 32% 2: 27% 1: 9%

DNK: 5%

• The Bank of Canada is raising interest rates out of concern about rising energy costs and possible inflation. How will rising rates impact corporate performance? Please use a 7-point scale where 7 means very positively and 1 the opposite.

Very positively 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 DNK Very negatively

7: n/a 6: 3% 5: 10% 4: 22% 3: 33% 2: 19% 1: 6%

DNK: 7%

• The Bank of Canada predicts that the loonie will rise against

the U.S. dollar as a result of the increase in interest rates. How will the combination of a stronger dollar, higher energy prices, and higher interest rates impact the Canadian economy? Please use a 7-point scale where 7 means very positively and 1 the opposite.

Very positively 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 DNK Very negatively

7: 4% 6: 3% 5: 13% 4: 17% 3: 29% 2: 19% 1: 12%

DNK: 3%

• There are various opinions about why our dollar is strengthening. Which of the following opinions best describes your view:

Our dollar is rising because of our inherently strong economy. 32%

Our dollar is strengthening because we are an energy-rich country and this is a time of Middle East-related uncertainty. 31%

Our dollar has been historically undervalued and only now does the market realize its true value. 30%

Quebec and national unity are less of a concern today so the market is recognizing our domestic stability. 3%

DNK/No opinion 3%

The full technical report and data not graphically displayed above are available at www.compas.ca. Letters on the substance of the issue are welcome at letters@nationalpost.com, while letters on survey methodology are welcome at National_Post_Survey@compas.ca

Source: COMPAS Inc., National Post

pvieira@nationalpost.com; The analysis in the poll is that of COMPAS. Those views are not necessarily held by the poll's sponsor, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. This weekly poll is presented in partnership with Canadian Chamber of Commerce

www.irna.com

OPEC weekly basket price up to 32.72 dollars

Vienna, March 17, IRNA -The price of OPEC's basket of seven crudes up to 32.72 dollars a barrel last week, compared with 32.24 dollars in
the First week of March.
According to figures released by the OPEC Secretariat here today, the price of the basket so far this year (up to 13 March) has averaged 31.25 dollars a barrel.
For the month of February, the basket price averaged 31.54 dollars a barrel, as opposed to 30.34 dollars in January, and 28.39 dollars in December of 2002.
For the fourth quarter of last year, the basket price averaged
26.83 dollars a barrel, as against 26.09 dollars in the third quarter. The price of the basket in 2002 averaged 24.36 dollars a barrel,
compared with 23.12 dollars the previous year.
The OPEC basket comprises Algeria's Saharan Blend, Indonesia's
Minas, Nigeria's Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia's Arabian Light, Dubai of
the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela's Tia Juana, and Mexico's Isthmus crude.
MN/HM
End

OPEC daily basket price down to 30.98 dollars

Vienna, Mar 17, IRNA -The price of the OPEC Basket of seven crudes
stood at 30.98 dollars a barrel on Friday, compared with 32.42
dollars the previous day, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations
here, Monday.
The basket price in the last 30 working days in Dlrs:
Fri 31 January 30.71
Mon 03 February 30.29
Tue 04 February 29.98
Wed 05 February 30.52
Thu 06 February 30.77
Fri 07 February 31.25
Mon 10 February 31.38
Tue 11 February 31.35
Wed 12 February 31.30
Thu 13 February 31.91
Fri 14 February 32.33
Mon 17 February 31.90
Tue 18 February 31.85
Wed 19 February 31.95
Thu 20 February 31.48
Fri 21 February 31.84
Mon 24 February 32.44
Tue 25 February 32.73
Wed 26 February 32.49
Thu 27 February 32.48
Fri 28 February 32.63
Mon 03 March 31.63
Tue 04 March 32.12
Wed 05 March 32.29
Thu 06 March 32.50
Fri 07 March 33.79
Mon 10 March 33.11
Tue 11 March 32.54
Wed 12 March 32.74
Thu 13 March 32.42
For the first quarter of 2002, the basket price averaged Dlrs
19.83 a barrel as opposed to Dlrs 18.38 in the 4th quarter of 2001.
For 2001 as a whole, the price of the basket averaged Dlrs
23.12 a barrel, compared with Dlrs 27.60 in 2000, Dlrs 17.47 in 1999
and Dlrs 12.28 in 1998.
The OPEC basket comprises Algeria's Saharan Blend, Indonesia's
Minas, Nigeria's Bonny Light, Saudi Arabian Light, Dubai of the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela's Tia Juana and Mexico's Istmus Crude.
MN/HM
End