www.heraldsun.news.com.au From correspondents in London 18mar03

OIL prices slumped today as traders took profits after the United States set the stage for a long-awaited war in Iraq that has sent prices skyrocketing in recent weeks.

In a classic "buy the rumour, sell the fact" response, prices fell after the United States, Britain and Spain dramatically withdrew their draft resolution seeking UN support for war on Iraq. US officials said President George W. Bush would give a final ultimatum to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to leave Baghdad to avert war.

"People feel that war is now definite, and that has reduced the uncertainty over the issue," said GNI trader Paul Goodhew.

In another sign that war was looming, a spokesman for UN disarmament inspectors said the experts were likely to evacuate Iraq on Tuesday at the request of the White House.

The price of Brent North Sea crude oil for May delivery, the new benchmark contract, fell by 83 cents to $US29.30 per barrel in late deals when trading resumed after a period of disruption caused by anti-war protests.

New York's reference light sweet crude contract for April delivery lost 73 cents to $US34.65 per barrel in early trading.

But Commerzbank analyst David Thomas said that prices could bounce back when any bombs start falling on Iraq, until concerns about possible disruption to Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil supplies are assuaged.

Experts say that unlike in the 1991 Gulf war, prices may not fall so dramatically when the bullets start flying because oil stock levels in consumer countries are already very low.

"The possibility of a collapse is going to be much more muted than it was 12 years ago," said Thomas.

"The risk is certainly on the upside for oil prices now. When conflict actually starts, if it looks like being fairly quick then you'll see the price eroding quite rapidly," he said.

Analysts pointed towards higher temperatures arriving in major oil-consuming markets in the northern hemisphere and increased supplies from oil producers as factors likely to fuel a sharp price fall after any war.

"In the background is the realisation that demand is now coming into a much weaker period and supply is very, very high," said Barclays Capital analyst Kevin Norrish.

Crude production from the OPEC oil cartel soared 8.6 per cent or 2.217 million barrels a day in February to 27.88 million bpd, the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) reported.

With Venezuela resuming output and a significant surge from Gulf states, output by the OPEC 10, without Iraq, climbed 10.1 per cent to 25.45 million bpd last month from 23.113 million bpd in January, the industry newsletter says.

The market is also counting on oil-consuming nations grouped under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency to release oil from their public crude reserves.

IEA executive director Claude Mandil said that the Paris-based grouping would set up a safety net to avert an oil shortage in the event of war against Iraq.

Countries belonging to the IEA held reserves of four billion barrels of oil or the equivalent of 115 days of consumption, which could be used if shortages arose, he said, adding that he did not expect to see such a shortage.

reuters.com Mon March 17, 2003 04:24 PM ET By Richard Valdmanis

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Time is running out for extra oil supplies expected from the OPEC cartel to hit U.S. shores and allow the world's biggest fuel consumer to smoothly build gasoline supplies before the summer driving season.

Not getting the supplies could leave the United States more dependent on imports than ever, at a time when the White House edges to the brink of war on Iraq and retail gasoline prices hit all-time highs, threatening the stuttering economy.

"The U.S. needs large slugs of extra oil to cope with the increase in (refinery) runs, stop the erosion of inventories and to begin to claw back some cover," JP Morgan said in a research note. "The U.S. oil market is undersupplied."

U.S. oil stockpiles have fallen below 270 million barrels, the government's suggested level for seamless operations, as supply disruptions from Venezuela and an unusually long, cold winter drained supplies.

Resulting inventories, near the lowest level since 1975, could prove a problem for U.S. suppliers, who tend to use the brief respite in consumer demand in the second quarter to refine more crude and build fuel stocks before summer.

"The main problem is that while global oil demand does indeed hit a minimum in (the second quarter), U.S. crude oil runs increase," said JP Morgan, meaning deeper declines in crude supply are likely if imports don't shoot higher.

SECOND QUARTER INCREASED DEMAND

The U.S. second-quarter increase in crude oil demand averaged roughly 1 million barrels per day in 2001 and 2002, and is expected to be even sharper this year as the industry struggles to buffer paper-thin inventories.

"There's potential for trouble," said Tim Evans, senior analyst at IFR-Pegasus. "Low crude inventories limit the extent to which higher refinery rates can be sustained. But the cavalry rising up over the hillside is represented by OPEC, which has already started pumping away."

OPEC, which accounts for 60 percent of world oil exports, has signaled it will defend against global short supply by increasing shipment volumes even as it declines to lift its official production curbs due to worries over overall weakness in global demand.

OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia has already raised production sharply in the first two months of this year to make up for lost Venezuelan supply. Tanker brokers said on Friday the kingdom snapped up 14 tankers to move 29.5 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S. Gulf for May delivery.

So far, the increased production has yet to translate into higher U.S. crude stockpiles.

ENOUGH SAUDI CAPACITY?

And, while Saudi Arabia has reassured the market that it will continue to pump more oil in the event of a war, there are doubts about whether Riyadh has enough spare capacity to compensate fully for disruptions from Iraq, which has a sustainable export capacity of 2.2 million bpd.

The International Energy Agency in a monthly report on the oil market outlook released on Wednesday estimated that OPEC in total has only 900,000 bpd to spare, with 400,000 bpd in Saudi Arabia.

If crude becomes scarce enough to hinder the U.S. oil industry's attempt to build up gasoline supplies before summer, pump prices will likely continue to surge, pushing through record levels.

The average retail price of gasoline in the United States on Saturday was $1.719 a gallon, a new all-time high, according to the American Automobile Association's latest survey.

The U.S. inventory situation has worried the White House enough to consider tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve -- something reserved for only the most dire supply crunches.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said on Friday Washington reserved the right to make a unilateral release of crude from the emergency reserve in the event of a severe supply disruption. The statement came after a similar comment from Japan, which said it would tap its reserve if Iraq is invaded by U.S.-led forces.

Sen. Jeff Bingaman, the top Democrat on the Senate Energy Committee, urged the Bush administration on Monday to immediately begin releasing up to 750,000 barrels of oil a day from the reserve until fresh OPEC supplies arrive.

Oil from the Middle East takes about 45 days to reach the U.S. market.

"This modest release would complement and not compete with the oil that is heading this way," Bingaman said. "We will be helping to prevent a gasoline supply shortage and further price spikes," he said.

www.sfgate.com JOSH DUBOW, AP Sports Writer Monday, March 17, 2003 (03-17) 13:19 PST TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) --

Francisco Rodriguez might be the most accomplished rookie in major league history.

Many heralded prospects have tantalized teams during late-season callups, then had to prove themselves again the next year. Now Japanese slugger Hideki Matsui and Cuban pitcher Jose Contreras face questions about how they'll adjust to the competition against the best baseball players in the world.

Rodriguez already has answered such concerns.

On baseball's biggest stage, no less.

The 21-year-old pitcher nicknamed "K-Rod" quickly made his mark last October. He tied a major league record with five postseason wins, set a relief record with 28 postseason strikeouts, posted a 1.93 ERA and became the youngest pitcher ever to win a World Series game.

"That's in the past," he said. "I have to live in the future. I need to have a good year and help the team as much as I can."

Rodriguez is a rookie because he only pitched 5 2-3 innings last September. He was eligible for the postseason roster because of a loophole in the rules that allows for teams to replace players on the disabled list with a player on their 40-man roster.

Instead of just getting a taste for the majors like most late-season callups, he performed in the highest-pressure spots.

"He pitched in the toughest situations you can be in," manager Mike Scioscia said. "He did it for six weeks. We're looking for consistency. If Frankie Rodriguez shows the consistency he showed in the playoffs, he'll be fine. That's the challenge for all young players -- being consistent."

Unlike most rookies, Rodriguez comes with a lot of advance billing. Opposing players watched him overpower some of the game's toughest hitters last October with his 95 mph fastball and nasty, late-breaking slider.

A successful at-bat against Rodriguez could be the highlight of a young player's spring -- the opposite of last March, when Rodriguez tried to impress his team.

"From last year to this year is a big difference," he said. "Last year, nobody knew me. Now when I pitch, people know who I am because of what happened in the playoffs. It feels a lot different.

"Guys are swinging a lot more on the first couple of pitches. They don't take too many pitches. They try to be aggressive and swing early in the count. They don't want to go deep in the count and fall behind. I like to be aggressive, but I have to mix it up more early in the count."

That's just one of the many adjustments Rodriguez will have to make this season. Opposing scouts have spent hours breaking down video of Rodriguez, trying to learn his tendencies and weaknesses.

Rodriguez will also have to learn to deal with the ups and downs of a 162-game season. As dominating as he can be, the Angels know he won't have it quite as easy as he did during the postseason.

"He just needs to be himself. He's very competitive and throws strikes," Anaheim general manager Bill Stoneman said. "He has good stuff. All he needs to do is go out and compete. Things won't always go as easily for him as they did in the playoffs. He'll hit some rough spots. But overall, if he stays consistent, he'll be good more than bad."

Rodriguez is especially fresh this spring. He usually pitches in the winter back home in Venezuela, but he was limited to two games of winter ball because of political unrest.

Rodriguez couldn't even go out to celebrate his 21st birthday, staying inside with his family to avoid trouble on the streets.

He bought an exercise bike so he wouldn't have to run in the park and even turned down a meeting with President Hugo Chavez in order to keep a low profile.

His mother and brother were robbed at gunpoint because people figured the family of a baseball star would have money. Houston Astros outfielder Richard Hidalgo was wounded in his left arm during an attempted carjacking in November.

"It is very dangerous," Rodriguez said. "I stayed in the house."

He talks every day with family members who are still back home in Caracas, unable to get visas to come to the United States.

But he also is focused on his job here. He's not content with last season's success and knows he must keep proving himself.

"I'm not sure I'm making the team," he said. "What I did is in the past."

www.thenassauguardian.com By LISA ALBURY Guardian Business Reporter lisa@nasguard.com

Drivers say that failure to cap gasoline prices would be "murder of the taxi cab industry."

The industry, which is a major buyer of gasoline, spends millions of dollars with gas retailers.

Calling on Government to properly regulate prices, president of the Taxi Cab Union, Leon Griffin said something needs to done to keep gas prices level.

However, as of Saturday, the price of gasoline and diesel at the various stations throughout The Bahamas increased.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry, announced that lead free gasoline at Shell Bahamas Ltd. increased by 22 cents from $2.97 to $3.19 and diesel oil increased by 24 cents from $2.03 to $2.24.

At Esso Standard Oil, lead free gasoline, its 93 Octane, increased by 27 cents from $2.92 to $3.19, while lead free gasoline, its 91 Octane, increased by 17 cents from $2.98 to $3.15.

Texaco Bahamas Ltd. lead free gasoline, its 91 Octane, increased by 21 cents from $2.98 to $3.19 cents, while diesel oil increased by 38 cents from $2.03 to $2.41.

The price of gas and diesel in Freeport, Grand Bahama also increased. Diesel oil increased by 13 cents, from $2.32 to $2.45. And on Wednesday, March 19, lead free gasoline (93 Octane) will increase by 10 cents, from $2.90 to $3.00. Lead free gasoline (87 Octane) will increase by 16 cents, from $2.84 to $3.00

"Should price hikes continue, some drivers may just park their vehicles," Mr. Griffin told The Guardian. "Others may decide to call it quits altogether."

According to the standard flat rate regulated by the Road Traffic Department, the fare for passengers travelling from Paradise Island to the Airport is $28 for two passengers and $3 extra for each additional passenger. There is also leeway for cab drivers to charge passengers for luggage.

Charges for meter fares start at $3 with $0.40 charged for every quarter mile travelled. No matter whether passengers travel at the flat rate or meter rate, drivers are permitted to charge any price agreed upon with passengers.

Mr. Griffin said he is not certain whether the price of gasoline is reflected in the amount of money charged to passengers because the rates or fares are controlled by the Road Traffic Department.

While he believes oil companies are not to blame, because gasoline is not made in the country, the president said their profit margin is contracting, mainly due to high taxes Government charged to bring the product into the country.

"I believe that if the Government was to go down on the taxes they charge oil companies and suppliers it would help," he said. "Then these savings could be passed on to the consumers who are the ones really being affected by the high prices."

The Bahamas Electricity Corporation is blaming higher fuel costs for an increased surcharge in consumer billing.

It is estimated the cost of a gallon of gas plus delivery to The Bahamas is about $1.15. Oil companies or gas suppliers reportedly make $0.40 per gallon; gas stations about $0.50 per gallon, bringing the total supplier and retailer margin to approximately $0.90 per gallon.

Some say gasoline mark-up far exceeds the average of other countries, and should be controlled by aggressive price competition or some type of regulation by the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

Just as taxi drivers now have to be cautious in their spending of gasoline to continue their business, other Bahamians are being urged to be prudent in spending.

With the United States preparing to go to war with oil-rich Iraq, the cost of living in The Bahamas is expected to surge over the next six months.

A main component in the possible price increase of gasoline is an unexpectedly long oil strike in Venezuela, which normally accounts for about 14 per cent of U.S. imports.

During the latter part of 2002, the U.S. Energy Department said it would lend crude from the national Strategic Petroleum Reserve to U.S. oil companies whose refineries were suffering a shortage of supplies from Venezuela.

The OPEC nation exported almost 2.7 million barrels per day and supplied around 14 per cent of U.S. daily oil imports before the strike.

Iraq sits on the world's second-largest oil reserves, at least 112 billion barrels worth.

Caption:TAXI BUSINESS - Taxis, left, line up at the British Colonial Hilton for fares, as the Government announces hikes in gas prices over the weekend. (Staff photo by Patrick Hanna)

Posted Monday March, 2003

www.vheadline.com Posted: Monday, March 17, 2003 By: Gustavo Coronel

VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: When told about the death of Elvis Presley, his former manager exclaimed: "Good career move!".....

For the seventh or eighth time in four years the Venezuelan government is denouncing a plot to kill President Chavez. So far, not one person has been identified in connection with these attempts, much less sent to prison. One of the first would be killers was a mysterious sniper in Puerto Ordaz, probably swallowed by Kanaima, the Jungle God of the Marikitare, since he was never seen. A rocket to be launched near the Caracas airport against the new Presidential plane, with Chavez inside, was suddenly abandoned by repentant killers, who also abandoned a cellular phone and a list of telephone numbers never made public.

Another attempt was to be made in Chile and, according to Argentinean newspapers, would have been led by Eliecer Otayza, who still is a Presidential Adviser for dirty work. Still another, according some members of the government political party, would be internationally coordinated by the CIA and the Israeli Secret Police.

In parallel, President Chavez has claimed he is being jinxed. Over national TV he described four diabolical looking, dead animals, found in the four corners of the presidential palace containing rocks and papers in their insides. In order to try to neutralize this voodoo Chavez urgently imported some Brazilian and Cuban witch doctors. These experts, however arrived too late.

Ever since the start of his presidency the country has been under the sign of tragedy. The first one was in December 1999 and resulted in 30000 or more deaths from landslides near Caracas. Bad voodoo also worked to make Chavez reject the US aid that was coming to help the survivors of that disaster. Voodoo has been responsible for the high poverty, the unemployment, the crime, the increase in the amount of street children.

Voodoo has clearly been responsible for the extreme drought and the multiple forest fires that have made necessary to ration water in most cities and imminent electrical power rationing . Black magic practitioners have promoted exchange controls, price controls and garbage accumulation in our cities. The extreme social unrest, the daily civic protests, the incontrollable invasion of private property in urban and rural areas, the huge capital flight and the long lines of citizens outside the embassies in search of visas to emigrate, are all the product of the work of witch doctors. The problem is that these witch doctors are titleholders in Chavez' cabinet. They are Chavez' ministers and his closest collaborators. No wonder Pogo went uphill and came back saying: "Today I have seen the enemy and.... the enemy is us."

This is why we should be rational concerning the alleged attempts at assassination of the President. Who would be interested in such an act?

Chavez' political demise seems to be around the corner, so that no one in his, her right mind would want to do violently what an inevitable political process will do peacefully. Killing Chavez would merely be an act of political euthanasia.

The exit of Chavez from the political scene would be an excellent career move for him since it would allow him to try again in a few years' time, trusting our short memories.

To assassinate Chavez would be the best way to give him a place in history as "the popular and charismatic leader, loved by the poor, who was shot (or poisoned or stabbed, take you pick and no pun intended) before he could get his mission accomplished"... (joropo music in the background).

Chavez does not deserve this easy way out. He has to and will be ousted by popular vote. He has to and will be rejected by the people of Venezuela. He has to and will be brought to trial for his numerous violations to the Constitution that he himself put in place. He has to be tried for the death of innocent Venezuelans in April 2001, for the destruction of PDVSA, for the giving away of our resources to Cuba due to his infatuation with Fidel Castro.... and so on and so forth.

To assassinate Chavez would be asinine. If it ever happens, look for those who would benefit the most from such a grotesque act...... those who would live politically off his idealized memory...

Watch out for someone like De Gouveia, the brute force, and the sinister minds playing him...

Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983. In 1998, he was presidential election campaign manager for Henrique Salas Romer and now lives in retirement on the Caribbean island of Margarita where he runs a leading Hotel-Resort. You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email ppcvicep@telcel.net.ve