www.ohio.com Posted on Fri, Mar. 14, 2003 BRUCE STANLEY Associated Press

LONDON - If U.S.-led forces invade Iraq, world oil prices will probably plunge from current levels and stay there - so long as the conflict ends quickly and causes little damage to production capacity in the Persian Gulf, several energy analysts said Friday.

However, a war that spills into neighboring countries or one in which Saddam Hussein sabotages his own oil fields could panic markets and trigger a spike in prices to $50 or even $60 a barrel, some said.

The wide range of forecasts is a sign of the difficulty analysts face in trying to envision how markets will react to a war of unpredictable severity.

Fighting might be over in a few days, or it might erupt into a regional conflagration that affects crude exports from Kuwait and even Saudi Arabia. How OPEC and oil-importing countries respond to a war will also have a great influence on prices.

Perhaps the only certainty is that markets will welcome any move that keeps supplies flowing.

Crude prices fell Friday on reports that Saudi Arabia's state-run oil company Saudi Aramco had chartered supertankers to carry an exceptionally large shipment of crude - 28 million barrels - to the United States for delivery in May. April contracts of U.S. light, sweet crude tumbled by more than $2 a barrel in New York before rebounding somewhat to $34.90, down $1.11 from Thursday's close. In London, North Sea Brent crude futures were trading 98 cents lower at $31.45.

Analysts say that fears of a wartime disruption in supply have swollen crude prices by at least $5 a barrel. This so-called war premium has increased along with tensions in the Persian Gulf because markets worry that hostilities with Iraq will paralyze that country's 2 million barrels in daily oil shipments.

Although prices might rise in the last hours before any actual outbreak of hostilities, several analysts predicted that an attack on Iraq would knock the floor out from beneath the market - just as it did when coalition forces launched Operation Desert Storm on Jan. 16, 1991.

Futures contracts of U.S. light, sweet crude plummeted by $10.90 a barrel on Jan. 17, 1991 to close in New York at $21.30.

"History would suggest that oil prices would go down fairly rapidly, maybe $5-7 a barrel, probably within one day," said Angus McPhail, an analyst at ING Financial Markets in Edinburgh, Scotland.

He believes that markets will be awash in crude after a swift war, particularly if Venezuela continues to recover from an oil industry strike and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries keep busting their output quotas. For the second half of the year, ING Financial Markets foresees an average Brent crude price of $18.50 a barrel.

"We are adamant that oil prices will fall," McPhail said.

Matthew Cordaro, an energy specialist at Long Island University, in Brookville, N.Y., argued that U.S. crude prices would fall to $25-28 a barrel "within a couple of days" of the start of a war.

Prices might fall by an additional $2 a barrel beyond that, Cordaro said, if President Bush authorizes a release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham has repeatedly emphasized that the United States will tap into its 600 million barrels of strategic reserves only if it sees a serious disruption in crude supplies. A short war that didn't impair Iraq's ability to soon resume exporting oil would probably not warrant a release of SPR oil, Cordaro said.

The first line of defense for importing countries in the event of a war would be an increase in OPEC oil production. OPEC this week estimated its spare production capacity at 2-4 million barrels a day, but the International Energy Agency said that OPEC might not be able to raise output quickly by more than 1 million barrels. The agency is the energy watchdog for major consuming countries.

Adam Sieminski, an oil price strategist at Deutsche Bank in London, argued that the Bush administration would most likely tap into U.S. strategic reserves in a war. If not, he said, "Bush will win the war but lose the 2004 election."

With no SPR oil, Sieminski said it was impossible to predict how high prices could go.

"Who knows? It's going to be much higher than it is now, with consequent damage to the world economy," he said.

In a worst-case scenario, a wider war could inflame regional hostility to the United States and lead to another Arab oil embargo. Prices might then spike to as much as $60 a barrel, said Rob Laughlin, managing director of London brokerage GNI Man Financial.

Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani agreed, telling an industry conference Friday that prices could exceed $50 a barrel if supplies from neighboring countries such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia were interrupted.

However, Yamani said that a short and successful war against Iraq could push prices to under $25 a barrel.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Friday, March 14, 2003 By: Kay Onefeather

Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 22:16:21 EST From: Kay Onefeather Kaonefeather@aol.com To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: What Am I Missing?

Dear Editor: What am I missing?  I fail to understand how street rioting and open rebellion against the duly elected President of Venezuela is "democracy in action."

What am I missing?

It wasn't the sabotage of oil refineries by employees of the opposition to halt production  of the prized "Black Gold."

It wasn't the televised demand for assassination of President Chavez Frias by one of the oppositions leaders.

I didn't and haven't missed the overwhelming poverty suffered by the majority of the population for decades, while the opposition was in control.

I didn't miss the blatant attempts to paralyze the economy, with NO regard for the sufferings of the people.

I didn't miss all the attempts to force illegal early elections.

I do not miss the almost daily shenanigans of the conniving opposition malcontents, bent on destroying the democratically-elected President, at the expense of the country -- Venezuela -- and its people.

What General of one democracy would dare say such things are "democracy in action," when these things  are happening in another democracy? Certainly not one from my country! The very first attempt at such malfeasance would be swiftly dealt with, no exception.

So...what am I missing?

Where is this double standard evaluation originating?

Perhaps, it is a misquote; perhaps a typo ... or, perhaps it is just another malicious lie.

One more lie amidst a deluge of lies about Venezuela.

Kay Onefeather kaonefeather@aol.com

www.alertnet.org 14 Mar 2003 19:27

CARACAS, Venezuela, March 14 (Reuters) - A Venezuelan union boss sought by authorities for leading a crippling strike against President Hugo Chavez has asked for political asylum at the Costa Rican embassy, a government official said on Friday.

Carlos Ortega, a fierce critic of Chavez who spearheaded the two-month opposition strike that tried to oust the leftist leader, went into hiding last month ago after the government arrested another strike leader.

"The information I have is that he has asked for asylum from the government of Costa Rica," Interior Minister Lucas Rincon said.

Opposition demonstrators quickly surrounded the Costa Rican embassy building in support of Ortega, who faces civil rebellion and other charges for leading the strike that disrupted oil output in the world's No. 5 petroleum exporter.

Chavez, a former paratrooper who survived a brief coup in April last year, brands his political enemies "terrorists and coup mongers". He has threatened to arrest strike leaders who he accuses of trying to sabotage the oil industry.

Ortega is the third major foe of Chavez to seek political sanctuary overseas in the last year.

Pedro Carmona, the opposition business chief who briefly replaced Chavez as president during April's coup last year, was allowed to leave for Colombia last year. Retired naval officer Carlos Molina, who faced an investigation for his part in the coup, was later granted refuge in El Salvador.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Friday, March 14, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

The Attorney General’s Office and National Guard (GN) Anti-Drugs Command is currently investigating the source of weapons seized during Venezuela’s second biggest drug seizure last week in Sucre State.

• Among the weapons seized were 2FN30s as used by the Armed Force (FAN) before the FAL 7.62mm) was introduced and a caliber 45 sub-machine gun.

Command commander, GN General Jose Antonio Paez says the FAN Armament Office (Darfa) is in investigating whether the weapons belong to the FAN. Paez says the Banking Association has been asked to collaborate in tracing the financial movements of 8 persons arrested during the GN operations to seize the drugs.

5 tonnes of cocaine and 100 kilos of marijuana were seized at a remote fishing village and the fact that armed narco-traffickers had taken over the village has come as unwelcome surprise to narcotics control agencies and the government facing international criticism for sleeping on its laurels during the all-consuming political crisis.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Friday, March 14, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Foro por la Vida human rights umbrella group has welcomed a decision by Anzoategui State 3rd Control judge Hilda Zamora to bring Bolivar municipality police agents to trial for the summary execution of Carlos Arturo Ramos. Zamora.

The group says it supports the work done by the Anzoategui State Human Rights Foundation in highlighting police abuses and defending the family of the deceased.

"Judge Zamora has found sufficient evidence to put Rafael Jimenez, German Matey, Angel Custodio Figuera and Andres Alexander Medina Barrero in jail until they stand for trial. "

Foro por la Vida has asked the judge to ensure that the Barcelona Penitentiary meets security requirements for the police agents to protect their personal integrity or investigate the possibility sending them to another detention center that will guarantee their human rights.

• Finally, the group has criticized the Anzoategui police for launching a nasty publicity campaign to disqualify Ramos’ name.

“The protection of the right to citizen security is not incompatible with the preservation of the rule of law and respect for each human right. On the contrary, only a police force that respects those principles can guarantee citizen security.”