www.jihadunspun.com Mar 15, 2003 Source: Bell Globemedia Interactive Inc

The Bush administration's drive to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein is so aggressive that even before a war has started its repercussions are being felt in every corner of the world, says Nobel Peace Prize laureate Adolfo Perez Esquivel.

The Argentine, who won the 1980 Peace Prize, views President George W. Bush's plans for attacking Iraq with great alarm. "Bush is setting the world on fire," he said.

Mr. Perez Esquivel, a native of Buenos Aires, is an architect, sculptor and teacher. He won the 1980 prize for his resistance to Argentina's Dirty War against leftist rebels. Imprisoned and tortured, he was freed with help from Amnesty International and the Pope.

At 71, he leads the Latin American human-rights group Servicio, Paz y Justicia, and travels widely on behalf of the antiwar movement. He has been in Toronto and Ottawa under the auspices of the church group KAIROS: Canadian Ecumenical Justice Initiatives.

After visiting Iraq last year for a firsthand look at what 12 years of sanctions and U.S. bombing attacks have done to its battered infrastructure, Mr. Perez Esquivel scoffed at the notion that Iraq poses any significant threat.

A U.S. attack, on the other hand, would open "a Pandora's box, threatening to set free the demons of death and destruction," he wrote recently.

"The chief danger in the world today is not Saddam Hussein," Mr. Perez Esquivel said. "It is the United States."

Like other critics of U.S. policy, he perceives in the United States an angry, isolated country inflicting lasting damage on itself. Mr. Perez Esquivel reaches for some words by Abraham Lincoln, quoted by President John F. Kennedy at the United Nations in 1962.

"What Lincoln said more than a century ago is that if the United States doesn't defend life, then it faces the prospect of self-destruction."

Yet unstable as the planet is, Mr. Perez Esquivel fears surging anti-Americanism will make it far more so. Across Latin America, he says, the antiwar sentiment, which has prompted big demonstrations in half a dozen countries, is vigorously feeding long-term resentment over U.S. policies on trade, tariffs, militarization and debt.

"What's happening with Iraq is not isolated, it's part of a global phenomenon. When we see the installation of U.S. military bases throughout Latin America, when we look at [American interference] in countries such as Venezuela and Colombia and Panama, we have to ask ourselves what's going on.

"Lots of people think it and won't say it, but I will say it: The United States is seeking to control the world. That's why we are seeing the reaction in so many countries."

www.miami.com Posted on Sat, Mar. 15, 2003 BY MARIKA LYNCH mlynch@herald.com

UNDER HOUSE ARREST: Carlos Fernandez is guarded by six police officers.

VALENCIA, Venezuela - Not long ago, business leader Carlos Fernández and union leader Carlos Ortega appeared together nightly on television to offer boisterous and confident reports on the progress of a general strike designed to bring down President Hugo Chávez's government. Back then, the president's days in office seemed numbered, and these men were the stars of a rising movement.

But Chávez, the leftist firebrand first elected in 1998, is still sitting comfortably at Venezuela's White House, Miraflores Palace. Fernández is under house arrest for rebellion -- guarded 24 hours a day by six gun-toting police officers in fatigues. And Costa Rica granted Ortega asylum on Friday.

Fernandez's arrest and Ortega's asylum request have dealt a blow to an already staggering opposition movement, which led a failed two-month strike, and now has lost its most visible leaders. Their rise and fall illustrates Chavez's ability to outlast his opponents and remain in power despite the masses against him.

Facing charges similar to those Fernández faces, Ortega was the third of Chávez's opponents to be granted asylum. After entering the Costa Rican Embassy in Caracas, he told officials there that he feared for his safety. Arrest warrants have been issued for seven former striking oil executives, who are in hiding.

For his part in the protest, Fernández, the president of the country's largest business federation, could face up to 24 years in prison. His own business empire is near collapse, and the commotion has aggravated his hypertension. Pale and weakened, he walked gingerly over his tile floors, past the candle-lit virgin statuette, for an interview in his living room this week.

''I am a political prisoner,'' Fernández said from a comfortable, peach stucco house. ``There isn't a crime here. To ask for freedom, to ask that there are opportunities for all Venezuelans, that there are elections as a way out of this crisis -- that can't be a crime.''

Since he was taken into custody outside a Caracas restaurant Feb. 20 -- ''kidnapped,'' he calls it -- Fernández spends his days resting, mostly.

On his 53rd birthday this week, hundreds waved balloons and flags outside his home, and a TV reporter broadcast a misty tribute that branded him a national patriot. But Fernández stayed behind the guarded door.

Still, Fernández says he has no regrets. The strike crushed the economy, hobbled the country's important oil sector and emboldened Chávez even more -- but it also brought nternational pressure on the government.

''The strike unmasked the government's ideological orientation. I think at this height of the game nobody can disagree that the model is totalitarian, autocratic and based on regimes that now have disappeared from the earth,'' said Fernández, who likened Chávez's economic program's to Cuba's.

By business leaders' estimates, about 25,000 businesses were forced to close in December. Thousands of people lost jobs, and the country's oil industry was crippled.

`TERRIBLE THING'

''It broke the economy; it made people poorer. Whether you agree the strike is a success or a failure, it was a terrible thing for the well being of people,'' said Janet Kelly, a political science professor and analyst.

But the effort was worth it, Fernández said, because it moved the country toward a solution by attracting former President Jimmy Carter to Caracas as a mediator and sparked the creation of a ''Group of Friends'' -- representatives from the U.S., Brazilian and other governments who vowed to help resolve the crisis.

Fernández, who immigrated to Venezuela from Spain at age 7 and with his siblings owns a half dozen companies from cement distribution to a construction material factory, was taken by surprise at night last month by armed men who didn't identify themselves. He was held by police who didn't produce a warrant until daybreak. The arrest alarmed human rights advocates, who saw it as a counter-attack by Chávez.

In the government's eyes, the men who led the strike need to pay for the strike's damage to Venezuela's economy. Congressman Rafael Simón Jiménez said he disagrees with the manner in which Fernández was arrested -- his human rights weren't respected, he said. But he says someone should take responsibility for the strike.

''The strike caused irreparable damage to the people of Venezuela, not just the government, but the citizens,'' the former vice president of the National Assembly said. ``We all have to respond for our actions before the constitution and the laws.''

WORSE TROUBLE

Chávez, a former Army paratrooper who led an unsuccessful coup in 1992, was elected with am ambitious promise to alleviate poverty in this South American nation. But the country's economic troubles have only worsened during his tenure, and many in Chávez's power base -- mainly, the large impoverished sector -- have grown disillusioned.

Venezuela's businessmen, never comfortable with Chávez, feel that his populist policies are leading the country to ruin. A coalition of business and union leaders called a strike Dec. 2, asking Chávez to resign or end his term early with new elections. Malls and restaurants closed, the oil industry was crippled and Venezuelans waited hours in line to fill their cars with gas.

But the strike ended, Chávez survived and was even able to get rid of his detractors at the national oil company.

With Fernández detained and other strike leaders in hiding, other vocal opponents have emerged, including Henrique Salas Romer, a former governor who challenged Chávez for the presidency in 1998.

Meanwhile the opposition has collected signatures for an August recall referendum, but its strategy is in a bit of disarray.

Fernández says some kind of political accord should be reached, but remains shy on specifics.

He doesn't foresee more strikes.

www.miami.com Posted on Sat, Mar. 15, 2003 BY DALE K. DuPONT ddupont@herald.com

Gas in South Florida has crashed through the $2-a-gallon barrier.

Prices for higher-grade fuel are inching up over the magic mark, much to the dismay of drivers and dealers.

At a Shell station in downtown Fort Lauderdale, premium was going for $2.08 Friday. A Mobil station across the street was holding the line at $1.99. At a Shell on South Dixie Highway in South Miami, it was about $2.02.

If it's any comfort, the average price for regular in California is already $2.10 a gallon, said Geoff Sundstrom, spokesman for the automotive club AAA in Orlando.

''It's outrageous,'' said John Gauthier, who was filling up with $1.84 regular at a Fort Lauderdale Shell and did a double take upon seeing the premium price.

High-octane prices go with such high-performance cars as Corvettes and Porsches, but 80 percent of all cars run on regular, AAA says.

Station employees say they merely raise their prices when the oil companies charge more.

And when drivers complain?

Leslie Calli, a station manager on North Federal Highway, gives them Shell's customer-service number.

''We aim to offer a competitive wholesale price to our dealers,'' said Shawn Frederick, spokesman for Motiva Enterprises, a Shell affiliate. ``From there, it is up to the independent dealer to set his own street price.''

The American Petroleum Institute cites several reasons for the price hike: the recent strike in Venezuela, which reduced exports to the United States; tight worldwide crude-oil supplies; and nervousness about a possible U.S.-Iraqi war, which has traders bidding up prices.

Oil prices topped $35 a barrel Friday. That's down slightly from several weeks earlier, when they reached $37, their highest level since the last half of 2000.

Before that, oil prices had not hit such levels since late 1990, when the United States was last close to war with Iraq.

''I don't know of any other industry that raises their prices on anticipation,'' said Pat Moricca, president of the Gasoline Retailers Association of Florida, which represents independent dealers.

Through 2002, gas prices were closely tracking the rate of inflation. In March 1993, the national average for regular was $1.11. That translates to $1.39 in 2002 dollars (the latest adjustment figures available).

The actual average last March was $1.239. On Friday, according to AAA, it was $1.715 -- a 38 percent increase. The Consumer Price Index rose just 2.6 percent from last year's.

Yet the current price is not a first for the state, AAA's Sundstrom said. The auto club got reports of $2 in Gainesville and Tampa in early February. (AAA does not track prices by brand.)

Still, $2.08 may be a Florida high, Moricca said.

Wholesale distributors sometimes allow stations to buy only a certain amount when supplies are getting low, Sundstrom said.

In some cases, industry-owned stations can get more fuel than the independents.

''We are on tight inventories of gasoline across the country,'' said Sundstrom, adding that he had not heard of South Florida's being one of those areas.

Moricca sees independent stations as being squeezed because of contract restrictions that prohibit brand-name retailers from buying on the open market the way some big discounters can.

Profit margins should be 15 to 20 cents, he said.

''These dealers,'' he said, ``are working on a penny to five cents.''

And if you're tooling around downtown Fort Lauderdale in a Corvette, here's the price of filling your tank with $2.08-a-gallon gas: $41.60.

www.nj.com Saturday, March 15, 2003 BY BRUCE STANLEY Associated Press

LONDON -- Crude oil prices fell yesterday on reports that Saudi Arabia's state-run oil company, Saudi Aramco, had chartered supertankers to carry an exceptionally large shipment of crude -- 28 million barrels -- to the United States.

April contracts of U.S. light, sweet crude tumbled by more than $2 a barrel in New York before rebounding somewhat to close at $35.38, down 63 cents. In London, North Sea Brent crude futures settled down $1.05, at $31.38.

Analysts say fears of a wartime disruption in supply have swollen crude prices by at least $5 a barrel. This so-called war premium has increased along with tensions in the Persian Gulf because markets worry that hostilities with Iraq will paralyze its daily 2 million barrel production.

Although prices might rise in the last hours before any actual outbreak of hostilities, several analysts predicted that an attack on Iraq would knock the floor out from beneath the market -- just as it did when coalition forces launched Operation Desert Storm on Jan. 16, 1991.

"History would suggest that oil prices would go down fairly rapidly, maybe $5 to 7 a barrel, probably within one day," said Angus McPhail, an analyst at ING Financial Markets in Scotland.

He thinks markets will be awash in crude after a swift war, particularly if Venezuela continues to recover from an oil industry strike and other OPEC members keep producing more than their output quotas. For the second half of the year, ING Financial Markets foresees an average Brent crude price of $18.50 a barrel.

"We are adamant that oil prices will fall," McPhail said.

Matthew Cordaro, an energy specialist at Long Island University argued U.S. crude prices would fall to $25 to 28 a barrel within a couple of days of the start of a war.

Prices might fall by an additional $2 a barrel beyond that, Cordaro said, if President Bush authorizes a release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham has repeatedly emphasized that the United States will tap into its 600 million barrels of strategic reserves only if it sees a serious disruption in crude supplies. A short war that didn't impair Iraq's ability to soon resume exporting oil would probably not warrant a release of the strategic reserves oil, Cordaro said.

The first line of defense for importing countries in the event of a war would be an increase in OPEC production. OPEC this week estimated its spare production capacity up to 4 million barrels a day, but the International Energy Agency said that OPEC might not be able to raise output quickly by more than 1 million barrels. The agency is the energy watchdog for major consuming countries.

www.austin360.com CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER Associated Press Writer

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP)--With the granting of diplomatic asylum to a fugitive labor leader, opponents of President Hugo Chavez have lost a key leader and one of the architects of a 64-day strike that devastated the economy and polarized a nation.

Carlos Ortega, the head of Venezuela's largest labor union, went to the Embassy of Costa Rica on Friday and received diplomatic asylum, escaping charges of treason and rebellion for his role in the general strike.

Another strike leader, Carlos Fernandez, the president of a business association, is under house arrest facing rebellion and other charges.

Costa Rica is expected to decide over the next two days whether to grant Ortega territorial asylum, which would allow Ortega to live in Costa Rica.

I feel like he has abandoned us,'' said Luis Kesoling, 53, a store owner who favors the ouster of Chavez. Now he's leaving, where does that leave us?''

Others were more sympathetic.

``It's understandable because his life was in danger, but it's sad because we are being left without leaders,'' said Gloria Gonzalez, a 35-year-old nurse.

Chavez opponents accuse him of steering Venezuela's economy into recession with leftist policies and accumulating too much power.

The president says his foes resent his efforts to end social inequality and his wresting power from the corrupt leaders that ruled Venezuela for 40 years until his 1998 election.

Supporters of the president expressed outrage that Ortega would escape criminal charges for helping to organize the strike.

That delinquent should be punished for what he did,'' said Jose Modesto, 49, who sells used books on a corner in downtown Caracas. Without justice there won't be peace here.''

A statement from the Costa Rican foreign ministry said it granted Ortega asylum ``for humanitarian reasons.'' The labor leader cited fears for his personal safety in his asylum request.

Hundreds of flag-waving supporters gathered around the embassy in eastern Caracas chanting, ``Ortega, friend, the people are with you.''

Chavez, who has called for prison sentences of 20 years for strike leaders, has said Ortega's asylum request ``demonstrated the criminal character'' of strike leaders.

``They are saboteurs and terrorists who greatly harmed the country,'' the president said.

The strike, which ended last month, paralyzed Venezuela's lifeblood oil industry and cost the country an estimated $6 billion but failed to force Chavez to accept early elections.

Ortega, president of the 1 million-member Venezuelan Workers Confederation, went into hiding on Feb. 20 after a judge issued a warrant for his arrest for treason, rebellion and incitement.

Chavez opponents have denounced the arrest warrants against their leaders as political persecution.

Ortega is the third Chavez opponent to seek asylum abroad.

Last year, Colombia granted asylum to business leader Pedro Carmona, the figurehead in an April coup that ousted Chavez for two days. El Salvador granted asylum to another alleged coup leader, Vice Admiral Carlos Molina Tamayo.