abc.net.au Friday, 14 March  2003

A long dry period punctuated by three intense droughts probably played a major role in the mysterious collapse of Mayan civilisation in Mexico, according to a new study. The severe droughts, each lasting between three and nine years, may have the been the final straws for a civilisation already on the verge of collapse, says a report published today in the journal Science. "Between about 750 and 950 AD, the Maya experienced a demographic disaster as profound as any other in human history," said the report, by an international research team led by Dr Gerald Haug of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich. The Mayan were so successful that at their so-called Classic Maya peak, around 750 AD, the civilisation supported a population of between three and 13 million people, the researchers said. But then it progressively collapsed and by the early 9th century, many of its cities and towns had been permanently abandoned. The study details new evidence that the three droughts occurred around 810, 860, and 910 AD - corresponding to the three phases of Mayan collapse suggested by archaeological evidence. The researchers also found that a more subtle but long-term drying trend was ongoing during the collapse. The droughts may have been what specifically "pushed Mayan society over the edge," they said. The findings are based on an analysis of long-term climate records as revealed in pristine undisturbed sediments from the Cariaco Basin, off northern Venezuela. The distinctly layered sediments, washed out from land by rivers, show up as pairs of light and dark bands that correspond to annual wet and dry seasons. Within them, the team identified yearly variations in titanium levels, which reflect the amount of rainfall each year. They correlate well with palaeoclimate data obtained elsewhere from sources such as ice cores and tree rings. Until now, however, climate records from the time had not been precise enough to test the relationship between drought and the Maya's downfall during the 9th and 10th centuries, the report said. The Mayans began cultivating maize in the region about 2000 BC, using dryland farming techniques that depended on fallowing to rest the soil and needed relatively little labour. Like other Native Americans, they went on to develop sophisticated ways of intensively cultivating fertile soils associated with seasonal and permanent wetlands, on which multiple crops could be grown year after year. Living in the Yucatan lowlands of Mexico and depending mainly on an inconsistent rainfall cycle, the Maya developed labour-intense networks of raised fields as well as canals, reservoirs and other systems for storing and gravity-powered distribution of rainwater. The Mayans had abandoned their major cities once before - between about 150 and 250 AD - an incident that may also be due to drought. But their population constantly recovered, cities were reoccupied and their culture blossomed. "The control of artificial water reservoirs by Maya rulers may also have played a role in both the florescence and the collapse of Maya civilisation," the researchers wrote. Other scientists have suggested that drought may have undermined the institution of Mayan ruling class when existing ceremonies and technologies failed to provide sufficient water. The Mayans were an ancient people whose high civilisation flourished in what is today Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala. They created monuments as impressive as those in ancient Egypt, were proficient in mathematics and astronomy and invented a unique written language.

Bob Beale - ABC Science Online

More Info? Sun cycle may have affected the Maya, News in Science 23 May 2001 El Nino cycles ancient and peaking, News in Science 20 Nov 2002

www.chron.com March 13, 2003, 11:40PM Bloomberg Business News

SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- Oil companies may be gouging California drivers by manipulating gasoline supplies to cause record high prices, Gov. Gray Davis charged.

Recent "unexplained" surges in pump prices may be the result of a "deliberate withholding of supply" by the oil industry, Davis said in letters to the state's top energy and public utilities regulators.

"As we well know from past experience, many energy companies would rather use Enron-style tricks to fuel their bottom lines than to fuel California homes and businesses," Davis wrote.

Retail gasoline prices in California are the highest in the United States, reaching a statewide average of $2.127 a gallon for regular-grade fuel this week, AAA said.

Gasoline prices have risen during the past three months as a strike in Venezuela cut U.S. crude supplies and tensions escalated with Iraq. Crude oil futures reached $37.83 a barrel earlier this week, the highest since October 1990.

Davis requested that the California Energy Commission and Public Utilities Commission report back to him in 15 days and asked for a recommendation on whether any matter should be referred to the attorney general for investigation. The agencies didn't return calls seeking comment.

The nationwide average pump price is currently $1.708 a gallon, up 39 percent from a year ago and 1 cent below the record set in May 2001, the AAA said. The surge in gasoline prices may still be "unjustified" because there is no shortage of gasoline, the association said last month.

Energy companies "have no qualms about using world events, such as the Venezuelan oil strike and an unusually cold winter on the East Coast, to their advantage," Davis said. "In light of a possible war with Iraq, I hope that none of these companies are engaging in war profiteering or any other types of illegal activity."

The government and many analysts dispute allegations of market manipulation. The rise in gasoline prices largely reflects shrinking crude supplies, analysts said. Crude stocks have fallen near 28-year lows after a nationwide strike in Venezuela slashed shipments from the world's fifth-largest oil exporter.

The prospect that a U.S. war against Iraq may disrupt oil shipments from the Persian Gulf has also fueled a surge in the cost of oil.

Prices for gasoline and other petroleum products are near all-time highs in the United States because of the rise in global crude oil prices, not because of "price gouging," the U.S. Energy Department said in a report earlier this week.

"There is no evidence of price gouging at any level," the department's Energy Information Administration said in its This Week in Petroleum newsletter. Profit margins for refiners and distributors "are not unusually high."

www.purdueexponent.org By Michael Williams Staff Writer The Indiana Attorney General's Office is collecting information on gas pricing in case an emergency situation is declared due to the recent increased gas rates. According to Staci Scheider, press secretary for the Indiana Attorney General's Office, the state could see a decrease in gas prices as soon as spring, but the office is still collecting an information to protect consumers from the rising prices. The recent increase in gas prices across the nation is attributed to the tensions in the Middle East, oil workers' strike in Venezuela and the colder-than-expected winter. Gas prices in Indiana are less than .01 cent below the national average all-time high of $1.7271. Andrew Stoner, deputy press secretary for Gov. Frank O'Bannon, said, "We're closely monitoring the anomalies in order to determine if an emergency needs to be declared." The governor last called the emergency in 2000 when gas prices soared due to a break in the Explorer pipeline in Canada. The governor declared the emergency to protect consumers from the rising gas prices. Prices already increased at the beginning of the year when the increased gas tax was implemented. The Indiana Petroleum Marketers and Convenience Store Association states that federal tax, Indiana gasoline tax, and state sales tax all go into figuring the prices of gas. The rest of the price comes from production, distribution and retail — all of which yield minimal return. Local businesses that are dependent on fuel are feeling the effects of the rise in gas prices as well. I. Rutlege Towing & Recovery Inc. is just one of the many business effected. Tira Clayton, of Rutledge Towing said that the company has had to make cuts in advertising and office supplies to compensate for the gas prices. With spring approaching companies will be switching from winter-grade gasoline to summer-grade — a change is required by the government. These two grades are not interchangeable. Due to the switching of grades consumers are susceptible to supply shortages, which leads to increases in price. But the supply shortage would only last until early summer. Anyone concerned with a certain gas price can submit a report by calling (866) 241-9753 or submit it online at www.in.gov/attorneygeneral.

www.washingtonpost.com Friday, March 14, 2003; Page A05

Directing unusually blunt language at Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the top U.S. military officer in Latin America said yesterday he sees a trend toward authoritarianism in the troubled country.

Gen. James T. Hill, head of the U.S. Southern Command, gave his assessment to the Senate Armed Services Committee.

He said the street protests during the two-month general strike that crippled Venezuela's economy were "for lack of a better term, democracy in action."

He said that following the strike, Chavez's "actions may portend a move toward greater authoritarianism. In my mind, that bears watching very carefully. I have directed my people to do that."

Hill also said that U.S. efforts to help Colombia fight leftist guerrillas have been successful, but that the country's conflict will not be resolved solely by military means.

www.nytimes.com By BLOOMBERG NEWS

WASHINGTON, March 13 — Retail sales fell 1.6 percent last month, the most since November 2001, the Commerce Department reported today, as snowstorms, terrorism concerns and a bleak job market curbed Americans' interest in buying furniture and cars.

The drop was roughly three times the 0.5 percent decline economists had expected and came after a revised 0.3 percent increase in January.

"It's somewhere between bad and dismal," said Cary Leahey, senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.

Indeed, there was reason to worry about jobs. Initial claims for jobless benefits have remained above the 400,000 level since the week of Feb. 14, the Labor Department said today. States received 420,000 applications for benefits in the week ended Saturday. That was down from the previous week's 435,000, which was the highest since mid-December. The less volatile four-week moving average of claims rose to 419,750, the highest this year.

"While the latest reading does little to disagree with the view that the labor market remains extremely weak, it offers the hope that things are not deteriorating further," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisers and one of the forecasters who correctly predicted the claims data.

The number of workers continuing to receive jobless benefits rose 14,000, to 3.496 million, in the week ended March 1, the highest since mid-November.

Consumer sales were reduced by the Northeast and mid-Atlantic blizzard last month that closed stores. Lackluster consumer spending would make any acceleration in growth difficult as such purchases account for a majority of economic activity.

The Commerce Department said that retail sales, excluding volatile automobile sales, fell 1 percent last month, the largest drop since the attacks of September 2001. Sales totaled $304 billion, and without autos, $232.5 billion. Both results were below forecasts.

Gasoline service station revenue increased 2.7 percent in February after a 3.8 percent rise the month before, reflecting the higher price of crude oil. The average price of all grades of gasoline at the pump rose as high as $1.70 a gallon in February, up from January's high of $1.52 and up 35 percent from $1.26 a year earlier. In the week ended March 10, the average price rose to a record $1.752 a gallon.

The surge in the cost of oil pushed up prices of goods imported into the United States for a third consecutive month in February, a separate Labor Department report said today. The import price index increased 1.3 percent after rising 1.6 percent in January, the most in nine months. Excluding petroleum, the index increased 0.4 percent, the most since April, after rising 0.3 percent.

The threat of war in Iraq and a strike in Venezuela have pushed up the benchmark price of oil, with the April delivery contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange settling yesterday at $36.01 a barrel.