www.boston.com By Reuters, 3/14/2003

NEW YORK - World oil prices plunged yesterday as wrangling at the United Nations further delayed a vote on a new resolution that could pave the way to war with Iraq.

US light crude dropped $1.82, or 4.8 percent, to $36.01 a barrel. London benchmark Brent crude oil slid $1.44 to $32.47 a barrel.

Oil prices are still up roughly 12 percent this year, underpinned by concerns that a war in Iraq, which itself ships around 4 percent of world oil exports, could upset supplies from other producers in the Middle East.

A report that Japan, Asia's largest oil consumer, plans to sell 300,000 barrels per day from its emergency petroleum reserves if US-led forces invade Iraq added to the day's slide, oil dealers said.

Prices slumped after the White House said diplomatic efforts to secure a consensus at the United Nations on a new resolution on Iraq could spill over into next week. US Secretary of State Colin Powell told a congressional committee there may be no vote at all on the resolution, widely seen as a war trigger - a sign that Washington fears it may not get enough support at the international body.

A German government source said that a compromise on an Iraq proposal was unlikely, even if a vote in the UN Security Council is put off until next week. France has threatened to veto any resolution that would call for military force, and China, Russia, and Germany have all expressed opposition.

Further relief for soaring prices came from an end to freezing US temperatures which have supported heating oil prices at near record levels in recent weeks.

Prices had jumped on Wednesday as a fall in US stocks combined with worries that oil cartel OPEC would not be able to compensate for lost Iraqi exports in event of war.

Latest US data showed crude inventories at a 27-year low. There were also sharp drops in gasoline inventories, which ought to be growing as stockbuilding starts for the summer driving season.

Analysts say core oil stocks are now 89 million barrels below normal. ''Given the reported ramping of OPEC production and the continued recovery of Venezuelan production, the shortfall is shocking,'' SG Securities said in a research note.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has stepped up output this year to cover an outage of crude from Venezuela, where an anti-government strike brought production to little more than a trickle in December and January.

Venezuela, normally the fifth-biggest exporter providing about 13 percent of U.S. oil imports, has increased shipments of crude and oil products though rebel oil workers say production is still less than half of normal levels.

Analysts say timing is now key for the war because oil demand is generally 2 million barrels lower in the second quarter of the year as spring advances and the loss of Iraqi crude would not be as acutely felt. The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, says the OPEC cartel likely lacks enough capacity to compensate immediately for the loss of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil.

OPEC, however, has pledged to guarantee supplies should war break out and Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi reiterated yesterday OPEC's ability to deliver oil in case of war in Iraq.

Nihon Kezai Shibun reported yesterday that Japan will consider releasing oil with the United States, regardless of what the IEA advises. Japan and the United States are members of the 26-nation IEA, the energy watchdog for industrialized nations that is based in Paris.

The IEA has said that it will allow OPEC to try to cover any shortages in war before it considers, as a last resort, releasing inventories from emergency stockpiles held in consumer nations.

Those reserves, built after the 1974 Arab oil embargo, were last used in the 1990-91 Gulf War after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.

www.newsday.com By James Toedtman CHIEF ECONOMIC CORRESPONDENT March 14, 2003

Washington - A war against Iraq threatens to undermine an already weakened U.S. economy, especially because of the potential for higher energy costs, what one energy expert calls "the gorilla in the bathtub."

While some past wars boosted business activity, U.S. military action against Iraq and its aftermath is likely to cause more problems for the economy, government officials, business leaders and economists say.

The consensus view is that even under the best-case military scenario - a quick victory - the economy will see rising unemployment, bankruptcies and government deficits.

And then there's the gorilla in the bathtub. That's the phrase used by Kevin Rooney, executive director of the Oil Heat Institute of Long Island, to describe the biggest potential economic danger that war poses: its impact on the cost of energy.

Oil prices already are at 12-year highs, gasoline prices are around $2 a gallon, home heating bills have people gasping in disbelief - and the whole situation could get worse if supplies from the oil-rich Middle East are disrupted. Higher energy costs also raise the specter of overall inflation rearing its ugly head.

That could be the blow that forces consumers to cut way back on their spending. Weary after two years of slack economic growth, depleted retirement accounts and growing job anxiety, consumers would especially feel the pinch of higher energy costs.

"People are already paying the price" of a war, said Larry Goldstein, president of Petroleum Industry Research Foundation.

Some past wars stimulated the economy because the government poured so much money into the effort. That was certainly the case in World War II, when the $2.9 trillion in spending more than doubled the size of the nation's economic output. But spending on the Persian Gulf War amounted to only 1 percent of the gross domestic product, and a war with Iraq could be similar in size.

"We are starting from a weak position," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for San Francisco-based Wells Fargo Bank.

The potential price tag may be measured on three levels: the direct war costs, the cost of reconstruction and the impact on the overall economy.

While the Bush administration has been reluctant to publicly discuss the actual cost of a military campaign, private and congressional estimates range between $50 billion and $100 billion, depending on the length and difficulty of the battle. That is comparable to the Gulf War in 1991, except that the costs that time were shared by more than a dozen nations. The United States has committed to assume virtually all costs for any new military action.

But the price tag could be a lot higher, according to Yale economist William Nordhaus, a White House economic adviser during the Carter administration. Estimates are always low, he said, putting the cost at as much as $140 billion.

The cost of stabilizing and rebuilding Iraq is even more uncertain, except that it will be high. "A short war with oil facilities intact would cost a modest amount. But a messy war with torched oil fields would raise the costs dramatically," Sohn said.

A Council on Foreign Relations task force led by former CIA director James Schlesinger and Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering recommended a combined occupation and nation-building force that would cost up to $20 billion a year for several years. Nordhaus estimated the post-conflict costs at between $100 billion and $600 billion over the next decade. The administration is already mobilizing a UN-based reconstruction effort, which would help deliver the services and share the cost.

"Americans should know the costs are going to be considerable," Schlesinger said this week. His $20 billion-a-year price includes the cost of 75,000 troops and $3 billion in food and medical care.

The consequences of any conflict ricochet like a pinball - in unexpected directions and with uneven impact. The military costs, for example, will feed an already growing federal budget deficit, now pegged at $307 billion.

"That will make deficits larger, so we'll see higher interest rates," said Pearl Kamer, chief economist for the Long Island Association. That in turn could raise borrowing costs for car loans and home mortgages, and make it more expensive for businesses to finance new projects.

Consumer confidence would then suffer even more. "On Long Island, we saw it lag in the last three months of last year, but it's now actually fallen below last year," Kamer said, pointing to sales tax revenues in Nassau and Suffolk that were 2 percent lower this January than last.

Growing defense spending will provide some direct benefit for New York, but the cost-benefit ratio is asymmetrical. For example, the Navy announced a $300 million contract for developing a counterpart to the unmanned Global Hawk surveillance drone now deployed in the Persian Gulf. That has the potential of between 150 and 500 new jobs at Northrop Grumman's Bethpage facility.

But on the same day, the airline industry warned that an Iraq war could reduce passenger traffic by 8 percent, cost the airlines $10.3 billion, eliminate 70,000 jobs, including thousands in New York, and bring the entire industry to the brink of bankruptcy.

Before the start of any military conflict, the price of a barrel of crude oil has risen from $20 to $38 in the past 12 months. That translates to higher heating oil (prices in the metropolitan area have gone from $1.39 to $2.04 per gallon) and jet fuel (61 cents to $1.30).

That affects transportation. A 1-cent increase in the price of jet fuel costs the U.S. airlines $180 million a year, according to the Air Transport Association. Higher energy costs also affect the prices of plastic, fertilizer and food processing. Even construction costs rise, Sohn noted, in part because of the cost of making and then shipping drywall.

Part of the oil problem is based on a national strike in Venezuela that cut daily production there in half.

Further complicating the energy picture is the duration and severity of this winter's cold weather, and the tight supply of natural gas. Most businesses can switch between oil and natural gas, depending on market conditions. When oil prices rose last fall, many opted for natural gas. With depleted natural gas supplies and disrupted oil production, prices of both fuels have skyrocketed.

The global oil supply system is "running on empty," according to a report this week by the International Energy Agency.

That has prompted calls from industry and government leaders to bridge the shortfall by tapping petroleum reserves around the world. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) warned yesterday that the nation risked a recession unless the Bush administration taps the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

"High prices for crude oil, gasoline, jet fuel and home heating oil are the four horsemen of what will soon be an economic apocalypse if nothing is done," Schumer said.

COST OF CONFLICT

A war against Iraq is expected to cost the federal government $50 billion to $100 billion, about 1 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product. How past wars compare:

NAME OF WAR

Name of War Cost In billions %GDP In 2002 dollars (at the time) Revolutionary War $2.2 63% War of 1812 1.1 13 U.S.-Mexican War 1.6 3 Civil War* 62.0 104 Spanish American War 9.6 3 World War I 190.6 24 World War II 2,896.3 130 Korean War 335.9 15 Vietnam War 494.3 12 Persian Gulf War 76.1 1

• Includes Union and Confederate sides

SOURCE: U.S. Commerce Department

Cost in %

www.ictsd.org

On 6 March, the US State Department announced that it would bar some shrimp imports from Honduras and Venezuela, saying that their exports do not meet US requirements. US law requires countries to use sea turtle "excluder devices" to prevent turtles from drowning in shrimp trawls, or to use other turtle protection programmes or show that their fishing waters do not pose a risk to turtles. Shrimp harvested by "artisanal" and other methods may still be imported. The US said it hopes that the ban against shrimp imports from the two countries will only be temporary, and added that it might send teams to confirm that adequate measures have been taken to protect sea turtles. A WTO panel upheld a US ban on shrimp imports from a group of four Asian countries in 2001 (see BRIDGES Weekly, 23 October 2001).

The harmful effect of fishing on sea turtles made headlines when the leatherback sea turtle -- one of the oldest and widest-ranging marine animals -- was found to be under threat of extinction. Amongst other factors, these turtles are caught by gill nets and long-lines used for fishing tuna and swordfish. The leatherback turtles, which have existed for the last 100 million years, could become extinct within the next 10 to 20 years. In response to this threat, conservationists have begun to put pressure on the international fish markets through consumer information campaigns.

"Turtle hurtles towards extinction," GUARDIAN, 7 March 2003; "US raps Venezuela, Honduras for harming sea turtles," REUTERS, 10 March 2003.

new.stockwatch.com 2003-03-14 03:58 ET - News Release

VANCOUVER, March 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Vannessa Ventures Ltd. (VVV: TSX, OTC-BB: VNVNF, Berlin: VVT - WKN 914781) is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary, Industrias Infinito, has received the long- awaited reply from the Costa Rican government on the filing of its Environmental Impact Study. The reply clarifies the concerns SETENA (the Costa Rican government's environmental agency) has and permits the Company to file a response and continue the permitting process towards final approval for the development of the Crucitas Mine.

The EIS was reviewed by SETENA's technical group and has subsequently been reviewed by a commission of representatives of various Government agencies who resolved that the study in its current form could not be approved.

The Company will therefore immediately (a) deal with deficiencies in the study material related to the references and guidelines given to the Company by SETENA at the time the study was requested, and (b) appeal the introduction of new topics, which the company feels are expanding the scope of the study and which were neither included in the initial references nor are they directly related to the environmental concerns regarding the operation of a mine.

The filing of the revisions and explanations of indicated deficiencies will be undertaken over the next three days, and will include an appeal that the new topics, which were introduced now and which were not included in the terms of references given to the Company last year, be withdrawn at this time.

In Venezuela, a comprehensive update on the Las Cristinas legal issues is currently being prepared and will be distributed to our shareholders shortly.

While it was our intention to let the court action take its course, we have been consistently forced to rectify statements made by Crystallex International Corp. which can only be interpreted as blatantly self-serving. The statements either contain the facts veiled in misleading language or omit the facts altogether and present false information.

A good example is Crystallex's statement in its letter to investors dated March 11, 2003 (Item No. 4) in which it states that MINCA formally withdrew its action against CVG regarding the cancellation of the MINCA mining contract. Responsible due diligence by Crystallex would have ascertained that the MINCA versus CVG case regarding the mining contract's cancellation is still active and advancing. The case that has been withdrawn was for "Abuse of Power" by the CVG against MINCA, of which CVG is a shareholder, and the damage incurred by MINCA as a result of the abuse. The reason for the withdrawal is that current ongoing investigations have provided MINCA with substantially more evidence and the case is being re-filed on the basis of this additional information.

"MANFRED PESCHKE" Manfred Peschke, President VANNESSA VENTURES LTD.

The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.

Vannessa Ventures Ltd.

CONTACT: Vannessa Ventures Ltd., 1710-1040 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, V6E 4H1, Tel: (604) 689-8927, Fax: (604) 689-8907, E-mail: info@vannessa.com, Website: www.vannessa.com

www.heraldnet.com Published: Friday, March 14, 2003 By Bryan Corliss Herald Writer

EVERETT -- Local hospitality businesses should stress training and security to meet the changes in tourism after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, an expert on tourism said Thursday.

They also should be more aware of how world events can affect their business, focus on short-term planning and work more closely with other segments of the community, said Peter Tarlow, a sociologist who specializes in tourism and economic development.

"In hard times, win loyalty by going forward, not cutting back," Tarlow told the Snohomish County Tourism Bureau during its quarterly forum. "Those people who cut on service and security, I think, will be out of business."

Tourism in the 21st century is changing, Tarlow said. The fast-growing segments are baby boomer grandparents traveling with their grandchildren, and women traveling alone on business.

Those people have unique needs, he said. Hotels need to come up with security plans to address the concerns of single women. That can mean improved lighting and locks, and providing escorts to help late-arriving women to their rooms.

Baby boomers can be demanding travelers, he added. Hotel staffers need to be trained in how to handle their complaints.

And tourism has changed after Sept. 11, Tarlow said. "Anyone who thinks that terrorism is not about tourism is living in never-never land," he said. "Almost every (airline) is either in bankruptcy or on the verge," and hotel and restaurant business remains down.

World events affect tourism, Tarlow said. If Saddam Hussein blows up Iraq's oil fields, and strikes continue to disrupt petroleum production in Venezuela, and if the U.S. goes to war in North Korea, "you have a very different season."

And what happens to a community if a Fourth of July festival is canceled by a federal security alert? he continued. Tarlow urged tourism planners to be flexible in their thinking and to focus on the coming months, not years.

"A year is too far out," he said.

Tourist groups also should work to ingrain the idea that customer service is important across the community, not just in hotels, Tarlow said. Tourism is a $3 billion industry worldwide, and everyone who might come into contact with a visitor -- from police to convenience store clerks -- must play a role in it.

"You can't live in isolation," he said. "We have to, in the 21st century, start working together."

Reporter Bryan Corliss: 425-339-3454 or corliss@heraldnet.com.