www.swissinfo.org Saturday 15.03.2003, CET 15:01 swissinfo   March 14, 2003 5:49 PM

The collapse of the Mayan civilization has been blamed on severe spells of drought, according to research carried out in Switzerland.

Scientists have long been baffled by the demise of the Maya, who flourished in present-day Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras until about 1,200 years ago.   But analysis of sediment extracted off the northern Venezuelan coast suggests they may have been devastated by severe droughts lasting between three and nine years. One of the study’s authors, Gerald Haug from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, said between 750 and 950 AD the Maya experienced a “demographic disaster as profound as any other in human history”. At its height in 750 AD, the Mayan civilization is believed to have supported a population of between three and 13 million people. The Mayans began cultivating maize in Central America around 2000 BC, and eventually developed sophisticated irrigation techniques involving raised fields, canals, reservoirs and gravity-powered rainwater distribution systems.   High and dry   But their renowned mathematical and engineering brilliance appears not have been enough to save them. By the early 9th century most of the Mayan cities were abandoned. Haug told swissinfo that the droughts were what may have pushed Mayan society over the edge. He says the era during which the Mayan civilization went into decline coincided with one of the driest periods since the birth of Christ. “They were clearly running into problems,” said Haug. “One consequence of this was probably social upheaval and ideological decline… there is documentation of migration and war around this time.” The report – published in the journal Science on Friday – says the fate of the Maya remains difficult to determine.   Studying ocean floors   Using equipment at the institute in Zurich, researchers analysed the concentration of titanium in sediment cores drilled from ocean floor of what is known as the Cariaco Basin, north of Venezuela. Titanium is a key indicator of rainfall, because higher precipitation washes more of the metal from the land into ocean floor sediments. “We looked in detail at the period corresponding to the 9th and 10th centuries – taking 6,000 measurements per 30 centimetres of sediment – and found three extreme minima, as well as a low background level that lasted about 100 years,” said Haug.   Experts divided   Nonetheless the drought theory remains contentious. “Perhaps it was the straw that broke the camel’s back,” Jeremy Sabloff, from the University of Pennsylvania told New Scientist magazine. But Sabloff argues that the Maya had coped well through earlier droughts. “The Maya thrived for 1,500 years before these droughts, so it’s clearly not climate alone that brought down the southern cities of the Yucatàn peninsular,” he said. Another expert, Boston University’s Norman Hammond, also questioned the findings, pointing out that the northern Yucatàn city of Chichén Itzà was not abandoned until the 13th century. swissinfo, Jacob Greber and Isobel Johnson

www.msnbc.com

LONDON, March 14 — World oil prices spiraled down on Friday as the United States hinted it was prepared to use force against Iraq regardless of the U.N. and said it reserved the right to make a unilateral release of oil from its reserves in any supply emergency. The market was also encouraged by news that OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia had snapped up 14 tankers to move a massive 29.5 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S. Gulf for May delivery.

	       U.S. LIGHT CRUDE by 1800 GMT was off $1.11 at $34.90 a barrel, an eight percent fall in two days as a series of automatic sell stops were triggered on New York Mercantile Exchange futures. London Brent fell $1.28 to $31.15 a barrel an eight-week low.

       U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said on Friday Washington reserves the right to make a unilateral release of crude from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve.        Abraham told reporters that while Washington would first consult with the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), the energy adviser to 26 industrialized countries, a release need not be part of a coordinated drawdown.        “We made it clear that we would engage in consultation as we belong to the IEA for a reason,” said Abraham. “But certainly the U.S. always reserves its right to make its own ultimate decision of what it’s going to do with our reserves.”        Abraham was speaking after Japan said it was considering a unilateral release from emergency stocks in the event of war.        Abraham repeated that OPEC producers would be given first chance at filling any supply disruption during war, before it considering releasing its emergency stocks.        Thursday’s slump came after the United States and Britain pushed back until next week a deadline for a new U.N. resolution on Iraq and forecasts of warmer weather in the Northeast U.S. sent heating oil prices tumbling.        Analysts said market perception seemed to be shifting towards the view that a war on Iraq, which traders believe is imminent and will be short, will be contained and not seriously affect oil flows from the Middle East as a whole, which supplies 40 percent of the world’s traded oil.        “Last time in the 1991 Gulf War there was a big collapse when the shooting started and perhaps this time traders are getting in ahead of the game,” said Christopher Bellew, analyst at Prudential-Bache International.

 Bush, allies plan emergency summit        Analysts say timing is now key for the war because oil demand is generally two million barrels per day (bpd) lower in the second quarter of the year as spring advances. The loss of roughly two million bpd of Iraqi crude would therefore not be as acutely felt.        The United States says that it could go to war on Iraq without clear United Nations backing but Russia, Germany and France all refused on Friday to drop their opposition to rapid military action.        U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell told a congressional committee there might be no vote at all on the resolution, widely seen as a war trigger — a sign that Washington fears it might not get enough support at the international body.         SAUDI SHIPMENTS        The tankers booked by Saudi Arabian, to move 29.5 million barrels, represent additional spot tanker bookings over and above normal demand and term contracts.        “It’s a huge volume, yes,” one broker said.        The bookings made by Vela International Marine, state oil company Saudi Aramco’s chartering arm, indicate that its own large fleet is already fully employed.        Oil traders said the volume shows Riyadh will keep supplies running high into May after a sharp increase in recent months to fill shortages from OPEC producer Venezuela and allay possible supply disruption fears ahead of a possible second Gulf War.        Saudi Arabia has raised output by more than a million barrels per day since the start of the year and is likely to average more than nine million barrels per day in March of its 10.5 million bpd capacity.        Brokers said 11 of the tankers booked to load between 27 April and 18 March had so far been confirmed. It takes up to five weeks to reach the United States from the Gulf.        Some four other Very Large Crude Carriers representing some 1.12 million tons of crude, booked under Tankers’ International, were on subjects and had still to be confirmed by the charterer, brokers said.         YAMANI WARNS OF $50 OIL        Despite the short-term easing in oil prices, Saudi Sheikh Zaki Yamani, famed as the face of OPEC during the oil price shocks of the 1970s, warned on Friday a war on Iraq could drive oil above $50 a barrel and wreck the world economy.        “If the absence (of Iraqi crude) is long enough and it can’t really be corrected and reduced by strategic reserves, prices can go to a very horrible ceiling and the price will be above $50,” the former Saudi oil minister told journalists on the sidelines of a seminar organized by his London-based thinktank, the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES).        “It will ruin the world’s economy.”

       U.S. oil prices surged to nearly $40 a barrel on fear that a U.S.-led war could disrupt Baghdad’s 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of exports, but have since calmed to around $34 after OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia promised to make up any shortfall.        Asked how much war premium was factored into prices, Yamani said: “You can’t really quantify.” But he added there were also fundamental reasons for current price strength, such as low U.S. oil inventories, which have fallen to a 27-year low.        Yamani said prices would fall to less than $25 a barrel if any conflict were short and did not do any permanent damage to oilfields, but he doubted OPEC could make up in the short-term for any outage of Iraqi supplies.        “With the absence of Iraqi crude from the market for some time, I don’t think OPEC will really stand up to the present offer to make up for the difference, especially if the Venezuelan problems are not solved quickly,” Yamani said.        Asked later by journalists if that meant that the International Energy Agency (IEA) and its leading member the United States would have to tap into emergency stockpiles to meet demand, he said: “I hope so, I think they have to.”        Both the Paris-based IEA and Washington have indicated a preference for OPEC to meet any shortfall on its own, although both remain ready to act swiftly should extra oil be needed.        Among the worst case scenarios would be if Iraqi President Saddam Hussein set out to destroy Iraqi oil wells, something the Iraqi leader has denied he would do, though Yamani said he didn’t take Saddam’s denial very seriously.        He cited research that because pressure in Iraq oil wells was low — in contrast with Kuwaiti wells torched by Saddam during the Gulf War — setting fire to them could destroy them for good.         DEATH OF OPEC?

Playing now: • Consumer sentiment hits decade low • Saudi Arabia books extra oil tankers for U.S. • MasterCard seeks separate antitrust trial       Provided, however, any war ended quickly and damage to oilfields was limited, prices could slump and the producers’ cartel, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could lose its power.        “OPEC has a lot of problems... OPEC has to reduce production in order to stabilize prices. To what extent can Saudi Arabia continue to reduce production I don’t know. OPEC has problems even without a war,” Yamani said.        Should foreign investment pour into Iraq, production could soar, heralding an era of far cheaper oil.        “Foreign oil companies injecting billions of dollars have to have a return on their investment, Iraq will produce without restriction,” Yamani said.        CGES Executive Director Fadhil Chalabi went further saying a post-Saddam Iraq could emerge as “a super-giant oil producer and exporter,” leading the world oil supply map to be redrawn and transforming the international oil industry.        Since the price shocks of the 1970s, there has been a shift away from the Gulf, where oil is cheapest to find and produce and to new areas where the development cost is higher, but supplies are seen as more secure.        Opening up Iraq could reverse this, Chalabi said.        In six-to-eight years, Iraq could reach production capacity of at least eight million barrels per day (bpd) from its present known recoverable reserves, estimated at 112 billion barrels.        The CGES believes reserves could reach as much as 200 billion barrels.        But Chalabi said Iraq’s oil, severely under exploited in the past, would only see rapid development with radical reform, including partial privatization of the nation’s oil industry.

www.sun-sentinel.com Posted March 14 2003

You can exercise the adventurous side of your palate as well as your high-school Spanish at Karibe, where plates of tequenos y pasteles and arepitas con nata arrive alongside bandeja paiza, pabellon nacional and parrilla criolla. Huh?

Don't fret if you didn't get most of that. It's tricky -- unless you're well versed in the cuisines of Venezuela, Columbia and Cuba. If not, look to the helpful staff at this friendly spot. They'll explain the menu (in Spanish with English subtitles) with as much detail as you're willing to take in. The result should add up to a better understanding of three cuisines, and, perhaps, your new found status as an aficionado.

You might recognize the word tostones on this menu, but you probably haven't had them the way they make them here -- Caracas-style. Listed as an appetizer ($5.99), the portion is enough to share with several people or can be a meal in itself since it fills up a dinner-size plate with layers of goodies. The base is large discs of crisply fried green plantains topped with shredded lettuce, peppers, onions, enough shredded beef (ropa vieja) to more than satisfy, a dusting of Parmesan cheese, and several plops of yellow ballpark mustard, of all things. Pick it up and eat it like pizza or with a knife and fork and enjoy this multidimensional discovery of textures and flavors.

If you visit when the Columbian gem ajico is the soup du jour ($2.99 per cup; $4.99 bowl), you're in for a treat. The broth is clear and flavorful, filled with boneless chicken breast, potatoes and sliced corn on the cob. A taste delight in itself -- even better with two accompanying accoutrements -- a dollop of rich crèma (the Mexican version of crème fraiche) and capers.

Even the house empanadas ($1) are a different experience from the norm. These tidy packages have a gritty corn meal crust instead of the usual flour dough and are plump with nicely seasoned ground meat and potatoes.

Or, enjoy queso frito ($2.99), delicious triangles of fried queso blanco that pulls like taffy when you eat it. Tequenos y pastels ($5.99), golden brown fried dough twisted attractively around more queso blanco makes great finger food, but my favorite first course is cachapas -- a Venezuelan style open-face arepa ($4.50). The foundation is a sweet corn studded crisp fried pancake (like the best corn fritter you ever ate) topped with cheese and ham, pork, chicken or beef.

Regular arepas are more like sandwiches ($2.50 with any of the same fillings) and come wrapped in deli paper, while arepitas ($3.50) are mini versions of the bigger model.

For a garlic-lover's main course, have filet de pollo ajillo ($7.95) a massive portion of sauteed chicken breast fillets in telltale garlic sauce with peppers and onions.

There's also good churrasco ($9.95) and lechon asado ($7.95), or try a Columbian country platter -- a steal at $8.50 for a feast of thin cut pork chops, chicharrones, a palomilla steak, a meaty chorizo chub and arepitas -- all topped with a fried egg. There's a similar platter from Venezuela called parrilla criolla ($11.95), another meat-eaters smorgasbord with some of the same ingredients as well as grilled chicken breast.

We loved the full flavors of the tomato based sauce in cazuela de mariscos ($10.95), a stewlike combination of mussels, squid, fish chunks, scallops, tiny shrimp and imitation crab. But most of the seafood was overcooked by American standards.

Most desserts don't match the rest of the meal and that's too bad. The flan de caramelo we did try ($2.50) was uneventful, as was tres leches ($2.50). Skip dessert and concentrate on the rest of the tasty geographical menu at this melting pot dedicated to Latin American fare.

Please phone in advance to confirm information on hours, prices, menu items and facilities. For review consideration, please fax a current menu that includes name and address of restaurant to 954-356-4386 or send to Sun-Sentinel, 200 E. Las Olas Blvd., Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301-2293.

If you would like to contact dining correspondent Judith Stocks, e-mail her at judithstocksreviews@yahoo .com or write to her in care of the Sun-Sentinel.

reuters.com Fri March 14, 2003 11:00 AM ET By Richard Mably

LONDON (Reuters) - World crude prices slumped again on Friday as investment hedge funds bailed out of oil in anticipation that a U.S. war against Iraq could start soon and finish quickly.

U.S. light crude by 10:30 a.m. EST had lost $2.11 at $33.95 a barrel for a 10 percent fall in two days as a series of automatic sell stops were triggered on the futures market. London Brent fell $1.28 to $31.15, an eight-week low.

"Last time in the 1991 Gulf War there was a big collapse when the shooting started and perhaps this time traders are getting in ahead of the game," said Christopher Bellew of brokers Prudential-Bache International.

Dealers said market perception seemed to be shifting toward the view that a war on Iraq would be contained and not hit oil flows from the Middle East as a whole, supplier of 40 percent of world crude exports.

Analysts said hot fund money was shifting out of oil and fixed income and back into undervalued equities markets, hit hard this year by political and economic uncertainty.

"(There's been) an about turn on the fixed income markets triggering a reversal in crude prices while at the same time equity markets rallied," said Steve Kwan, head of technical analysis at MMS International.

"People are selling bonds, currencies, oil and gold and buying stocks, the dollar and a big part of the reason is they are re-examining their handicapping on what is to happen next," said Bill O'Grady, at A.G. Edwards in St. Louis.

The United States says it could go to war without clear United Nations backing but Russia, Germany and France all refused on Friday to drop their opposition to rapid military action.

Secretary of State Colin Powell told a congressional committee there might be no vote at all on the resolution, widely seen as a war trigger -- a sign that Washington fears it might not get enough support at the international body.

Also dragging prices down was a Reuters report that OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia had snapped up 14 tankers to move a massive 29.5 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S. Gulf for May delivery.

The bookings made by Vela International Marine, state oil company Saudi Aramco's chartering arm, indicate that its own huge fleet is already fully employed.

Oil traders said the chartering spree shows Riyadh will keep supplies running high into May on top of sharp increases in recent months to fill shortages from strike-hit producer Venezuela and allay supply fears ahead of a possible war.

Saudi already has raised output by more than a million barrels per day since the start of the year and market monitors see it moving toward 9.5 million bpd in March of its 10.5 million bpd capacity.

IEA

Petroleum importing nations, represented by the Paris-based International Energy Agency, have said they will give OPEC the first chance to compensate for any shortage in the event or war.

"I'm confident that OPEC in general and Saudi Arabia in particular will deliver," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told Reuters on Thursday.

IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil on Friday said the agency, coordinator for emergency inventories for 26 industrialized nations, would make a decision on whether or not to release reserves within hours of any supply disruption.

"We will not have to wait, we will discuss with producers in the very first hours and see how we can work together in the coming hours," he told Reuters.

He said he had been assured by the Japanese government that it was not considering a unilateral release of oil stocks in the event of war in Iraq.

"I was told by the Japanese government that it will stay under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency as they did always," said Mandil.

Japanese newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on Friday that Tokyo was considering selling about 300,000 barrels a day of crude from state reserves should U.S.-led forces invade Iraq.

Mandil said he also expected the United States to consult with the IEA under a coordinated release, should one be necessary.

IEA member countries must hold stocks worth 90 days of net imports but have the right to make unilateral drawdowns from excess inventories. Both Japan and the United States, among others, have large volumes above the mandatory 90-day minimum.

www.washingtonpost.com By Maryan Chilinguerian washingtonpost.com Staff Writer Thursday, March 13, 2003; 1:48 PM

Americans, frustrated with the ongoing uncertainty over the Iraq crisis and a national economy teetering on the edge of recession, are spending less on big-ticket items, opting instead to stock up on the necessities. U.S. businesses anticipate that if a war occurs, consumers will continue to penny pinch until the outcome is clear. And while the fighting continues, consumers are expected to remain glued to their televisions instead of spending at the malls.

Many companies have scaled back production, investments in capital goods and advertising spending as they await a possible war with Iraq. The auto industry is feeling a lot of this pain. Two major auto retailers, General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., have already announced plans to cut production in the second-quarter on the assumption that demand for automobiles will drop. • In U.S. Plants and Wallets, The Other Iraq Standoff (The Washington Post, Feb. 25, 2003)

Throughout the economic downturn, auto sales have remained relatively strong due to zero percent financing and cash back offers that lured in customers. But the allure of those promotional offers has worn off. According to January's retail sales report, auto sales dropped 7.5 percent while overall retail sales increased at the fastest rate over two years. Sales of home improvement items, gasoline and groceries showed the strongest sales numbers, indicating that consumers are only stocking up on necessities. Retailers also took a hard hit in February, due in part to the mid-Atlantic blizzard that kept shoppers locked indoors over the President's Day holiday weekend. • February Retail Sales Fall 1.6 Percent (The Washington Post, March 14, 2003) • As U.S. Gears for Fight, Spending Winds Down (The Washington Post, Feb. 25, 2003) • Retail Blows Hot In Winter (The Washington Post, Feb. 14, 2003)

One possible reason for dwindling consumer spending is the spike in fuel costs. Exacerbated by the political instability in Venezuela and looming war with Iraq, oil prices are nearing an all time high, with the national average reaching $1.77 per gallon for gasoline. Prices at the pump are expected to continue to rise as demand outpaces supply. Recently, the national inventory of oil hit 25-year lows and an attack on Iraq could worsen the problem by disrupting overseas oil supplies. • Gas Prices Rise to Near-Record Level (The Washington Post, March 11, 2003) • Is Worst Ahead for Airlines? (The Washington Post, March 11, 2003) • Retail Gasoline Prices to Set Record High (The Washington Post, March 7, 2003) • Natural Gas Price Surveys Under Suspicion (The Washington Post, Feb. 29, 2003) • Paying the Price for Rising Fuel Costs (The Washington Post, Feb. 29, 2003)

Whatever the reason, the anxiety is growing and is evident in the latest consumer confidence report. The Conference Board reported consumer confidence plunged to its lowest reading in nine years. • Investors Skittish Worldwide (The Washington Post, March 12, 2003) • Stock Indexes Retreat From War (The Washington Post, March 11, 2003) • Consumer Confidence at 9-Year Low (The Washington Post, Feb. 26, 2003)

The U.S. dollar recently hit a four-year low versus the euro, losing 20 percent of its value against the European currency in the past year. A weak dollar is beneficial for American exporters because it makes domestic goods more competitive against foreign-made products. But a weak dollar could crush confidence in U.S. currency and hurt foreign investment. • New Treasury Chief Learns A Lesson (The Washington Post, March 6, 2003) • U.S. Trade Deficit Rises to Record Levels (The Washington Post, Feb. 21, 2003)

Historically, war has sparked bullish behavior among investors but continuing uncertainty about whether and when a war against Iraq could occur is dragging on the markets. Fund managers and institutional investors are sitting tight and waiting, keeping trading volumes low and the Dow teetering below 8,000. • Wall Street Sits Tight as War Looms (The Washington Post, Feb. 13, 2003)

However, the markets were given some reassurance in the latest report on gross domestic product. The Commerce Department revised its January report of GDP, which grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate versus the originally reported 0.7 percent. • Economic Growth Rate Upgraded (The Washington Post, Feb. 29, 2003)