www.startribune.com Bruce Stanley, Associated Press Published March 11, 2003 OIL11

VIENNA -- OPEC will increase production and possibly even suspend its output quotas to keep the world supplied with enough crude in the event of war with Iraq, the group's president said Monday.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can pump 3 million to 4 million more barrels of oil a day and are prepared to exhaust this spare production capacity if war seriously disrupts Persian Gulf exports, said OPEC head Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah.

OPEC's secretary general and oil ministers from Iran, Algeria and Venezuela played down the possibility that the group might suspend its output ceiling of 24.5 million barrels a day. Al-Attiyah, OPEC's president, indicated that he favors more flexibility, without actually endorsing a temporary suspension.

"OPEC will do the most it can to avoid any shock in the market," he told reporters ahead of a policy meeting today at OPEC headquarters in Vienna.

OPEC, which pumps about a third of the world's crude, is already exceeding its target as members cash in on prices that have soared to 12-year highs amid fears of a war-induced supply shortage from Iraq.

A conflict would almost certainly disrupt Iraq's daily shipments of 2 million barrels, but at least one OPEC member -- the United Arab Emirates -- expressed doubt about the group's ability to cover a larger shortfall if fighting spreads beyond Iraq.

"OPEC should not be blamed," Al-Attiyah said. "We will do whatever we can, but this is in accordance to our capacity. When we reach a level that we cannot exceed, then we cannot do anything."

Al-Attiyah said the market was well supplied with crude, but the United Arab Emirates' oil minister, Obaid bin Saif Al-Nasseri, warned it would be "very difficult" for OPEC to pump enough oil to cover a simultaneous shortfall in crude exports from Iraq and northern Kuwait.

Kuwait, where most of the U.S. troops that are poised to attack Iraq, has said that in the event of war it would shut down its northern oil fields as a precaution against a possible Iraqi counterstrike. Such a step would reduce Kuwait's output by around 700,000 barrels a day, or about a third of its current production.

Al-Nasseri's comments suggested that the United States and other oil-importing countries would need to rely on their own strategic petroleum reserves as a cushion against a serious disruption in supply.

The United States and other big importers want OPEC to maximize production if a war threatens supplies and causes prices to spike. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, due in Vienna today on separate business, said in London that he might meet with leading OPEC oil ministers. Al-Attiyah said Abraham had so far not requested to meet with him.

Some analysts have suggested that large importing countries and OPEC -- two often opposing camps -- might be trying to coordinate an increase in OPEC output with a release of crude from importers' strategic reserves in an effort to head off a war-induced disruption.

Despite Al-Attiyah's claim that OPEC has 3 million to 4 million barrels in daily spare capacity, it was not clear how much higher the cartel could go in satisfying U.S. demands.

www.upi.com By Hil Anderson UPI Chief Energy Correspondent From the National Desk Published 3/10/2003 8:21 PM

LOS ANGELES, March 10 (UPI) -- The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States, with California leading the march, posted another significant gain last week and reached a near-record price of $1.712.

The increase of 2.6 cents announced Monday by the United States Energy Information Administration was a fraction of a cent under the all-time record retail average of $1.713 per gallon set in May 2001 when low inventories and increasing demand collided with higher world crude prices.

"Factors, such as the possibility of war in Iraq, and the on-going petroleum strike in Venezuela, still exist," said Carol Thorp, spokeswoman for AAA Texas.

A war in the Persian Gulf is considered a virtual certainty by oil traders, or at least enough of a possibility that they have been bidding up the price of crude in order to nail down supplies before fighting breaks out.

In addition, low gasoline inventories, refinery maintenance and reports of production problems in the United States have added to the bullish sentiment.

California had the highest average price, according to the EIA, at $2.084 per gallon, some 7 cents higher than last week's figure. The San Francisco area posted an average price of $2.15 per gallon while Los Angeles-area prices were around $2.06. One station in Sacramento was reported selling full-service premium for a dizzying $3.04 per gallon.

"It's outrageous," Sharon Wilson told Los Angeles television station KCBS as she filled up at an Orange County service station. "I think we are being taken advantage of, but I feel helpless."

California historically has had some of the highest gasoline prices in the nation because of its unique clean-burning formula that makes it virtually impossible to import fuel from outside the state during periods of shortages.

According to the California Energy Commission, gasoline production in California as of the end of February was running more than 12 percent below where it was a year ago. At the same time, supplies on hand were 11.3 percent below February of 2002 and 7.4 percent under the previous week.

Recent market reports have indicated that the tight supplies in California are due to both high crude prices and to reported difficulties in retooling the state's refineries to produce gasoline with ethanol, which will be phased into use statewide over the course of the year.

The EIA said Monday that its most recent analysis indicated that the United States would have enough ethanol in the near term to accommodate the rising demand for the corn-based oxygenate, but with very little margin for error. In addition, it was expected that with Connecticut and New York in the process of phasing out the oxygenate MTBE and replacing it with ethanol, some foreign refiners would no longer be able to supply extra gasoline to the East Coast.

"When MTBE is banned in New York and Connecticut, the RFG imports are likely to decline as some foreign suppliers will not be able to provide MTBE-free reformulated gasoline," the agency said. "The reduced ... imports would need to be made up by supply from the domestic refiners, likely from the Gulf Coast refineries and at additional costs."

In addition, the EIA cautioned, additional infrastructure was needed to accommodate the steady shift to ethanol in the United States.

www.cnn.com Monday, March 10, 2003 Posted: 12:17 PM EST (1717 GMT)

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Dozens of physicians marched through Venezuela's capital Monday to protest shortages of supplies in Caracas hospitals.

The doctors blew whistles and waved blue, red and yellow Venezuelan flags as they marched down a central highway, escorted by police.

For decades, Venezuela's public hospitals have suffered from severe supply shortages, forcing many patients to buy their own syringes, antibiotics, painkillers and gauze bandages.

A new currency exchange system that tightly regulates how Venezuelans can buy dollars is aggravating the crisis. Almost all medicine in Venezuela is imported.

The controls are meant to protect the bolivar currency, which lost a quarter of its value during a two-month general strike seeking to force early elections. The strike ended last month.

President Hugo Chavez has promised to give priority to businesses that import basics such as food and medicine. But because of delays in implementing the new scheme, the government hasn't sold any dollars for two months.

Most pharmacies in the country only have stocks for 30 more days, according to Oswaldo Santana, president of the Venezuelan Chamber of Medicine. Wholesalers only have supplies for 15 more days, Santana said in comments published in Monday's El Universal newspaper.

www.grandforks.com Posted on Mon, Mar. 10, 2003 Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela - Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton called on the United States on Monday to provide evidence regarding the existence of alleged terror finance networks in Venezuela.

Last week, the U.S. Southern Command's Gen. James Hill said terrorist organizations, including the militant Lebanese group Hezbollah, were operating in border areas of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay and on Venezuela's Margarita Island.

Hill said operatives were taking advantage of smuggling hotspots and weak institutions to channel funds to international terrorist groups.

"Whoever has evidence of situations like those described must first give them to corresponding authorities," Chaderton told the local Union Radio station.

"That evidence ... could lead to the opening of an investigation. A simple denunciation isn't enough," he added.

Chaderton said President Hugo Chavez's government would cooperate with U.S. authorities to halt any terror-related activities in this South American country of 24 million.

If someone has reasons to think there are terrorist networks in Venezuela, "We would support any initiative to neutralize those types of actions," said Chaderton.

After meeting with Venezuelan authorities Friday, U.S. ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro said Washington was concerned that international terror groups have established bases in all Latin American countries.

Two bombs exploded outside Spanish and Colombian diplomatic missions in Caracas on Feb. 15. The attacks stoked fears that Colombia-style terror had reached neighboring Venezuela.

www.popmatters.com

Much like Go Further, The Revolution Will Not Be Televised documents the efforts of a revolutionary opposed by powerful forces. The revolutionary in this case is Hugo Chavez, the President of Venezuela. Much has been made of the recent and continuing unrest in the country since Chavez has come to power. As the fourth largest oil producer in the world, Venezuela's difficulties -- along with the impending war in Iraq -- has sent gas prices skyrocketing and has the Western world grousing. The reasons behind the turmoil, however, have been little explored, and never with the depth or access that this film provides.

Shot by an Irish crew with intimate access to Chavez and his ministers, Revolution chronicles Chavez's rise to power as a champion of socialism, putting forth a program of wealth redistribution and private enterprise reform. Chavez, the film reminds us, was democratically elected by a majority of poor and working class Venezuelans, who, despite the state owned oil industry, never received the benefits reaped by the aristocrats that held power before Chavez's election.

The film begins rosily enough, as Chavez waves to a capacity crowd while parading victoriously through the streets of Caracas. We soon learn, however, that Chavez's leftist leanings do not sit well with the Venezuelan upper class. In one scene, the crew visits what appears to be a neighborhood association meeting in a posh, hillside community on the outskirts of Caracas. An elegantly dressed woman denounces Chavez's supporters as freeloaders before another man in a tailored suit cautions the group to keep an eye on their domestic servants, who might be passing messages of pro-Chavez support. While this seems a bit laughable, it's clear how serious the situation is when he begins to give a lesson on how to operate a gun.

This scene foretells what comes next, as, a few days later, an anti-Chavez demonstration collides with a pro-Chavez group near the presidential palace. Shots ring out and chaos erupts. The crew is on the scene to capture the mayhem first hand, including the deaths of protestors as they run for cover. Over these scenes of violence, a narrator informs us that shots were coming from elevated positions, indicating the organized and pre-planned actions of snipers, not spur of the moment violence of the part of protestors.

Whatever the cause, blame for the violence that erupts is placed squarely at the feet of Chavez. While the film shows Chavez supporters running for cover and being shot, the United States, along with Venezuelan opposition, paints Chavez and his supporters as the instigator. Chavez's opponents, consisting of business leaders, religious figures, and a handful of military leaders, use the violence as a pretext for removing the elected president, and a coup d'etat unfolds before the unblinking eye of the camera.

Revolution is remarkable for the unfettered access it enjoys as Chavez is forcibly removed from, and promptly restored to, power. The crew holes up with the embattled president and records, uncensored, the chaotic events that unfold. Beyond the human drama of the story, though, the documentary is also a study in media manipulation, tracing the battles Chavez fights on Channel 8, the only state owned television station, with the myriad private stations, which all clamor for his removal. In addition to these private stations, Western television is also shown to get it wrong. Statements made by White House spokesman Ari Fleischer and Colon Powell condemning Chavez are directly contradicted by the events recorded in the documentary. Disturbingly, US oil interests are frequently mentioned as the reason for this misinformation and CIA involvement is hinted at in the orchestration of the failed coup.

What might be even worse than the campaign of misinformation about Chavez and the goings on in Venezuela, however, is the utter lack of any kind of information in the global community. With Iraq dominating headlines and televisions, Revolution reminds us that crises loom elsewhere and bears important witness to the suffering of a country, the violence of repression, and the danger faced by those who would buck the system.