www.bday.co.za By Daniel Rook

LONDON - Oil prices fell after France and Russia threatened to veto any UN Security Council resolution backing war with Iraq, and ministers of the Opec oil cartel pledged to ensure adequate supplies.

The price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for April delivery lost 21 cents a barrel to $33.48 in early trading.

In New York, the benchmark light sweet crude April-dated futures contract shed 51 cents to $37.27 a barrel on Monday.

Prices eased back after France and Russia gave notice they would veto any UN resolution authorising war with Iraq.

The first signs of discord meanwhile surfaced between the United States and Britain over the question of testing Iraqi compliance with UN resolutions.

Analysts said that the market was beginning to doubt whether war is as imminent as had been believed.

"While a week ago everybody was saying that there was going to be military action on March 18, it now appears that Blair and Bush are failing to get support, particularly from the French and the Russians, and (March) 18 may not be the start of the conflict," said Barclays Capital analyst Orrin Middleton.

Oil ministers from members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) meeting in Vienna to discuss what action to take in the event of war meanwhile sought to calm nervous markets.

Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia said global oil markets had adequate supplies and pledged the 11-member cartel would ensure demand was met.

"There is enough oil on the market and we will make sure there is enough," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi told reporters ahead of the Opec meeting.

Opec President Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah of Qatar also said OPEC ministers “don't feel there is a shortage in the market."

The cartel was thus expected to maintain its overall output ceiling of 24.5 million barrels per day, extending a 6.5% increase introduced at the start of February to compensate for disruption to supplies from strike-hit Venezuela.

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein analyst Paul Spedding said that although Opec ministers might discuss a suspension of output quotas behind closed doors, they would probably put the plan on hold and examine it again in the event of war.

He also agreed with their remarks that there is enough supply for the second quarter, when demand usually tails off as spring arrives in the northern hemisphere, though oil companies also use the period to rebuild stocks.

"I think that Saudi Arabia has probably now made up sufficiently to account for the shortfall in Venezuela," he said.

"So I think the market is now getting the amount of Opec crude it needs and for choice I would say that going through March it's probably getting more than it needs," he added.

www.sacbee.com By Nick Peters -- Bee Staff Writer Published 2:15 a.m. PST Tuesday, March 11, 2003

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Many baseball players dread visiting New York, much less playing there, and regard it as intimidating and distracting. New Giants third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo isn't among them.

In fact, playing for the New York Mets his entire career sharpened Alfonzo's focus and made him thrive under intense media and fan scrutiny. In the Shea Stadium pressure cooker, he became one of the most feared clutch hitters in the National League.

Alfonzo, 29, likely will bat fifth in the Giants' order, ostensibly to provide protection for Barry Bonds and to do a reasonable impersonation of Jeff Kent, the RBI machine who usually batted behind him the last six years.

According to manager Felipe Alou, Alfonzo is "a very cold-blooded hitter" who is particularly tough in the late innings. He may not produce Kent's annual 100-plus RBIs, but game-winning hits may flow.

"Edgardo is really patient, and he makes contact," said fellow Venezuelan Andres Galarraga. "I always hated to see him up in game-winning situations because I thought he was more dangerous than (Mike) Piazza. He always put the ball in play."

Alfonzo has the numbers to verify prowess under pressure. In six years as a Mets regular, he always batted higher with runners in scoring position than otherwise. In that span from 1997 through 2002, his RISP average was .327. Overall, it was .296.

"The key is his plate coverage," new Giants batting coach Joe Lefebvre said. "He can hit any pitch with a short, compact swing -- and that makes him dangerous. Playing in New York definitely toughens you up. He can handle anything."

Alfonzo agreed.

"The New York pressure never got to me. The fans and media back there can be tough when you're going bad and great when you're doing good. But it really was no different than playing winter ball.

"When you play in Venezuela, it's very intense from the first pitch to the last, so it makes you very aggressive. And when you play in New York, you have to learn to handle things. There are a lot of distractions and a lot of competition, including the Yankees."

Alfonzo can't explain why he's so successful under pressure, one reason the Giants gave him a four-year, $26 million contract without much competition for his services following two injury-scarred seasons.

"I really don't think about it," he said. "I just try to select a pitch to hit. I've always been able to focus. It's always been part of my game to make contact. I've always hit line drives and used all fields."

The Giants can attest to that. He's a .303 lifetime hitter against them, flourishing in the 2000 playoffs when the wild-card Mets jolted the Giants. He batted .278 in that series, but that doesn't begin to tell the story.

In Game 2, his two-run homer off Felix Rodríguez created a 4-1 lead in a game the Mets won 5-4 in 10 innings. In Game 3 at Shea, his run-scoring double off Robb Nen produced a 2-2 tie in the eighth, and the Mets won 3-2 in 13 innings. In the decisive Game 4, Alfonzo supported Bobby Jones' one-hitter with a two-run, fifth-inning double off Mark Gardner that concluded the scoring in a 4-0 win.

"He never swings at a bad pitch, and his bat doesn't have many holes," Rodríguez said.

Performance of that caliber made "Fonz" a fan favorite in New York, and he thanked the fans with an extremely classy act: spending $15,000 for taxi roof advertisements that show a big red heart and his photo wearing a FDNY cap.

Alfonzo, with the Mets' organization since 1991, plans to remain involved with his supporters in New York. He will continue to reside in Little Neck, Long Island, not far from Shea, during the offseason.

"I love New York," he said. "I did a lot of things with the Hispanic community. You can help people emotionally and spiritually, not just economically. I was involved back there, and it hurt a lot when the Mets didn't bring me back.

"I wanted to be there all my life. But then I understood. Things don't always happen the way you want. San Francisco was the last place I thought about. It was too far from New York. I told my agent to find something close, like Baltimore or Boston.

"I really didn't have any great offers until the Giants called, and I was made to feel at home right away. On my first day in camp, I had guys come up to me and say, 'Thank God we don't have to face you anymore.' That made me feel good."

www.canada.com Associated Press Tuesday, March 11, 2003 Associated Press

VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- OPEC will increase its oil production and possibly even suspend its current output quotas to keep the world supplied with ample supplies of crude in the event of a war with Iraq, the group's president said Monday.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can pump an additional three million to four million barrels of oil a day, and they are prepared to exhaust this spare production capacity if a war seriously disrupts exports from the Persian Gulf, said OPEC President Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah.

OPEC's secretary general and oil ministers from Iran, Algeria and Venezuela played down the possibility that the group might suspend its output ceiling, currently set at 24.5 million barrels a day. Al-Attiyah indicated he favours a greater degree of flexibility, without actually endorsing a temporary suspension.

"OPEC will do the most it can to avoid any shock in the market," he told reporters ahead of a policy meeting Tuesday at OPEC headquarters in Vienna, Austria.

OPEC, which pumps about a third of the world's crude, is already exceeding its target as members cash in on prices that have soared to 12-year highs amid fears of a war-induced supply shortage from Iraq.

A conflict would almost certainly disrupt Iraq's daily shipments of two million barrels, but at least one OPEC member -- the United Arab Emirates -- expressed doubts about the group's ability to cover a larger shortfall if fighting spreads beyond Iraq's borders.

"OPEC should not be blamed," Al-Attiyah said as he arrived at a Vienna hotel. "We will do whatever we can, but this is in accordance to our capacity. When we reach a level that we cannot exceed, then we cannot do anything."

Al-Attiyah said the market was already well supplied with crude. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali Naimi, speaking to reporters upon his arrival at a different hotel, agreed but gave no further details.

However, the United Arab Emirates' oil minister, Obaid bin Saif Al-Nasseri, warned it would be "very difficult" for OPEC to pump enough oil to cover a simultaneous shortfall in crude exports from Iraq and northern Kuwait.

Kuwait, which hosts most of the U.S. troops that are poised to attack Iraq, has said that in the event of war it would shut down its northern oil fields as a precaution against a possible Iraqi counterstrike. Such a step would reduce Kuwait's output by around 700,000 barrels a day, or about a third of its current production.

Al-Nasseri's comments suggested that the United States and other major oil-importing countries would need to rely on their own strategic petroleum reserves as a cushion against a serious disruption in oil supply.

The United States and other major importing countries want OPEC to maximize production if a war threatens supplies and causes prices to spike. U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, due in Vienna Tuesday on separate business, said in London that he might meet here with oil ministers from leading OPEC producers. Al-Attiyah said Abraham had so far not requested to meet with him.

www.smh.com.au March 12 2003

OPEC, which produces a third of the world's oil, is ready to expand sales in a bid to lower prices should a war with Iraq disrupt supplies from the group's third-largest member.

The Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said markets had enough oil for now. Officials from Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria and Venezuela said the group could increase output, and that the US had no need to use its emergency reserves to lower prices.

"We will do whatever we can to avoid a shortage," OPEC President Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, who is also Qatar's oil minister, told reporters in Vienna yesterday.

Oil prices climbed to a 30-month high of $US34.55 a barrel in London yesterday, boosted partly by concerns that a US attack on Iraq may disrupt Middle East oil supplies. A three-month strike has also crippled crude oil exports from Venezuela, leaving US inventories at refineries and other businesses close to a 28-year low.

OPEC is to meet today in Vienna and has been split on suspending export quotas in the event of war.

OPEC Secretary-General Alvaro Silva said that was "not on the agenda". Iran's oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, said OPEC "must refrain from taking any politically motivated measures" that would appear to support an invasion of Iraq.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, could produce as much as 10.5 million barrels a day within 90 days, Saudi officials say, which is about 1.7 million barrels a day more than it was producing in February.

Not all ministers, however, are optimistic about potential increases. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries was operating at "almost full" capacity, United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Obaid bin Saif al-Nasseri said.

"We all know that OPEC is doing what it can," said Jan Stuart, head of research for global energy futures at ABN Amro in New York. "In the best of cases OPEC might just be able to fill the gap. The timing is awkward because of a demand increase from US refiners just around the corner."

US refiners usually complete maintenance and begin producing gasoline for their peak summer driving season over the next few weeks, which boosts crude oil demand.

Any move by OPEC to boost production may be tempered by concern about slack demand and the possibility of a glut after any conflict in Iraq.

"OPEC is a bit split," said Lawrence Eagles, an analyst at GNI-Man Financial in Belfast. "OPEC is paranoid that raising production is going to result in a second-quarter glut," he said. "What matters is what Saudi Arabia says they are prepared to do."

www.sanmateocountytimes.com112711235869,00.html

By Alan Zibel, BUSINESS WRITER As gasoline prices reach record highs, analysts say an ongoing switch in the makeup of California's gasoline may explain why the state's drivers are being hit with a bigger price hike than the rest of the nation.

The state is phasing out MTBE (methy tertiary butyl ether), a possible cancer-causing chemical, and replacing it with corn-based ethanol by the end of the year. Most major oil refiners are making the switch, while some smaller refiners are waiting until year's end.

Joanne Shore, a senior analyst at the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said recent price spikes in California are similar to pump price increases that took place when Midwestern states made a similar switch in summer 2000.

"This is a new way of producing gasoline for refiners," she said. "There's a more complicated production process with (less) room for mistakes."

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California's average gas prices increased 33 cents over the past month, a jump that was more than double the 14-cent increase seen nationwide over the same time period, according to AAA statistics. The state average for a gallon of regular unleaded on Monday was $2.07, compared with $1.69 nationwide.

Analysts say the national increase stems from high crude oil prices, which have risen on fears of the impact of a war in Iraq and because of low production in Venezuela.

All of this turmoil in the market is having its effect on ordinary consumers.

Filling up at a Shell station Monday on Santa Rita Road in Pleasanton, Gary Silva of Livermore said his family is cutting its gasoline bills by limiting car trips and using a compact Ford Escort instead of a sport-utility vehicle.

"We're conserving," he said. "Luckily, we've got one car that's really good on fuel, so we try to use it as much as we can."

The debate over ethanol's potential impact on California gasoline prices has been going on for more than a year. Last March, Gov. Gray Davis pushed back the deadline for removing MTBE from the state's gasoline supply to the end of 2003 on concern that the transition would cause supply problems and price hikes.

Neil Koehler, director of the pro-ethanol California Renewable Fuels Partnership, said the current high gas prices "have everything to do with international oil prices" and nothing to do with ethanol.

"Ethanol can help moderate gas prices and bring it down," he said.

Rob Schlicting, spokesman for the California Energy Commission, said there has been plenty of ethanol supply and low prices. Still, he said, ethanol-blended gasoline costs about 5 cents more per gallon than gasoline without ethanol.

California refiners switched to the summer formula of gasoline last weekend, and companies have been trying to empty their tanks of as much winter-grade gasoline as possible before switching to the summer-grade. That can cause some temporary supply problems, Schlicting said. The price spikes are likely related more to uncertainty in the market than serious transportation or distribution problems, he said.

"I think it's more unease rather than anything else," he said.

Philip Verleger, an oil expert and a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said oil companies are worried that the United States might release emergency oil reserves and are buying money-back guarantees to hedge for the possibility that oil prices might fall.

"Any company buying crude oil has to worry about this impending Christmas sale," Verleger said.

San Ramon-based ChevronTexaco Corp. said Monday that it has scaled back crude oil exports from Iraq as the company questions the continued reliability of the supply. The company last loaded Iraqi crude in early February, but has not loaded any since then, given the uncertain future for Iraq, a spokesman said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. Contact Alan Zibel at azibel@angnewspapers.com .