www.financialexpress.com

Vienna, March 10:  The Opec oil ministers arrived in Vienna on Monday for a crucial meeting of the 11-nation cartel to discuss possible production increases if case of shortfalls on the world market if the US attacks Iraq.

Key oil producers Venezuela and Algeria said they believe that the cartel has enough room for manoeuvre to avoid a supply shortage in the event of war. But United Arab Emirates’Obaid al-Nasseri said it will be difficult for the grouping to up production as it is already at almost full capacity. “I think everybody is producing almost about” full capacity, he said. Crude prices have skyrocketed since January because of fears of a war on Iraq.

From: To: Undisclosed-Recipient:; Subject: Fw: Fw: - Mensaje de un cubano a Venezuela Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 18:53:39 -0400

Subject: - Mensaje de un cubano a Venezuela

Amigos venezolanos:

Soy cubano. Luego de haber pagado 20 años de presidio en Cuba, logré llegar a Venezuela en el año 1983, donde me recibió una organización cubano-venezolana dedicada al rescate de los presos políticos de Cuba.

Yo luché contra Fidel Castro hasta donde mis fuerzas me lo permitieron.

Luchamos contra Fidel y lo que estaba detrás de él: la URSS. No crean que fue fácil combatir contra soldados rusos de los mejor entrenados. Si Cuba es comunista, no es porque los cubanos no hayamos hecho todo, sino porque subestimamos al enemigo, que resultó ser muy poderoso.

No deseo que sepan lo que viví en el presidio político de Cuba. No era hemipléjico antes del año 1961, cuando fui cogido preso, y el cáncer que padezco hoy tiene un origen emocional muy claro. Tampoco sufría de terribles pesadillas cuando era joven. No es fácil decir que hay un paréntesis de 20 años perdidos en tu vida. No fue fácil ver morir a compañeros sepultados en cemento hasta el cuello, solo porque no delataron a sus compañeros antes de que este fraguara.

No fue fácil que me llevaran a un simulacro de fusilamiento en el paredón, juzgado y sentenciado por un tribunal popular que presidía un niño de 11 años. No fue fácil soportar que asesinaran a todos mis hermanos, a mi madre y mi hijo, por luchar en pro de la libertad. No fue fácil escuchar cada noche media docena de fusilamientos en los patios de La Cabaña, y antes de la metralla, el invariable grito ¡Viva Cristo Rey! No es fácil aceptar que lloro escribiendo estas líneas, a pesar de mis 67 años de edad, y el temple que un preso político en Cuba desarrolla después de 20 años de sistemática tortura física, psicológica y moral, que dirigía por entonces, en sus inicios, el tan admirado por el sátrapa de Miraflores, Ernesto che Guevara.

Amigos venezolanos: este hermoso país me dio la oportunidad de rehacer, si es que ello era posible, mi vida, y aunque tengo el dinero suficiente como para abandonarlo, y en Miami muchos compatriotas que me animan a marcharme, NO ABANDONARÉ ESTE PAÍS QUE ES MI SEGUNDA PATRIA. Una vez empuñé las armas contra Castro, y estoy dispuesto a hacerlo de nuevo por esta maravillosa tierra. No debemos dar treguas al Comunismo, o lo pagaremos con la vida de nuestros hijos. Castro me asesinó mi primer hijo en Cuba, pero les juro que no me asesinará un hijo más de los que le di a esta gloriosa nación. No le demos tregua al tirano de Miraflores, y si nuestros líderes de oposición no saben estar a la altura del peligro que enfrentamos, estémoslo nosotros.

No se puede vivir indignamente: antes mejor morir en la lucha por hacer de este país una nación gloriosamente libre y digna.

¿Qué pasa con los estudiantes de la Universidad Central de Venezuela que en el pasado fue pionera de la lucha contra la sombra del terror y de la opresión? ¿O es que acaso el país es solo responsabilidad de PDVSA, la marina mercante, los militares disidentes, la patronal y la central obrera?

¿Van a perder la oportunidad histórica de haberlo dado todo, hasta la vida de ser necesario? No olviden que ustedes, los estudiantes, son la conciencia límpida de los pueblos, y que las luchas que no estén tuteladas por ustedes, simplemente, no tendrán alma.

¿Qué pasa con las Fuerzas Armadas de Venezuela? ¿Acaso los militares de Altamira son los únicos cojonudos en esta lucha? Les advierto que si ustedes creen que con el tirano tendrán asegurado el poder, despierten ilusos, pues el tirano los volverá milicias y desarticulará por completo.

Vayan a Cuba, a ver qué queda del glorioso Ejército cubano: un montón de asesinos con uniforme lamiéndole las suelas a otro asesino. Yo creo que los herederos del ilustrísimo Ejército Libertador deben tener una actitud mucho más digna y de mayor altura, o simplemente quedarán reducidos a la más mínima expresión, venga el futuro con Chávez o sin Chávez.

Y tú, que piensas abandonar esta noble nación, estás en libertad de hacerlo, pero piensa que al "abandonar" este país, estarás asesinando a los hijos de tus amigos, conocidos y compatriotas. ¿Quieres hacerlo?

¡Adelante valiente! ¿Crees que puedas vivir el resto de tu dorado exilio pesando sobre tu conciencia que elegiste ser cómodo antes que luchar por el país que te ha dado lo que eres?, porque si puedes instalarte fuera es porque cuentas con un respaldo que te dio tu país.

¿Qué has ido a todas las marchas y ya con eso has luchado y no ha pasado nada, sino que todo está peor? En Cuba, te lo juro, yo hice mucho más que eso, y no por ello evité que mataran a mi hijo y nos dominara el comunismo. ¿Quieres hacer más?

¡Da la vida por este noble país! Yo ya estoy listo. ¿Y tú?

José Albornoz H.

www.dailytimes.com.pk

“The impact of increased oil revenues of the Gulf states will be partly offset by the weak dollar, because oil is traded in US dollars in the international markets and most of the Gulf currencies are pegged to it.” Daily Times Monitor LONDON: Uncertainties over the Iraq crisis and political strife in Venezuela may have given the oil market a shot in the arm, with Brent blend prices touching $36 per barrel in early March 2003 compared to $20 per barrel in February 2002. The news of increased revenues for oil-producing states, especially in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, should be music to the ears of Treasury officials, reports Arab News. But beware such gifts lest they are considered in the context of the huge economic structural challenges in the Gulf, and the damage they may wreak on the global economy. Fears of an imminent war against Iraq have already sent the dollar to new lows against the euro and sterling, and forecasts about any rebound post-Saddam Hussein are mere speculation. The price of gold has also risen, and bonds too are up, but equities continue to take a beating. The impact of increased oil revenues of the Gulf states will be partly offset by the weak dollar, because oil is traded in US dollars in the international markets and most of the Gulf currencies are pegged to it. However, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a sustained $5 per barrel increase in the price of crude oil would decrease global GDP growth by as much as 0.3 percent. Lost GDP growth year-on-year February 2002 is estimated at $1.1 billion per day. The impact of such a development would be even worse on the US and European economies. The basic scenario is that if the Iraq crisis is resolved this side of 2003, then the US economy, supported by an accommodating Bush administration, would rebound in the second half of 2003 with real GDP growth forecast at 2.6 percent. The upswing in the UK is projected at an encouraging 2.4 percent, but the Euro zone will experience a more sluggish recovery at 1.3 percent and Japan stagnate at a negative real GDP of 0.2 percent. The emerging markets too will improve, although there remain concerns over whether Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela will be in a position to service their foreign debt. Most analysts agree that any contagion is likely to be regional and modest. For the Arab world, however, the exceptional oil revenues will mean that growth will be liquidity-driven (both in 2002 and 2003), a scenario which economists such as Brad Bourland, the chief economist of Saudi American Bank (SAMBA), warn could mask the inherent structural weaknesses of Arab economies. Last November’s IMF Consultation IV report on Saudi Arabia, for instance, commended the Kingdom for its reform program, but stressed that the pace of reform is too slow and urged greater fiscal discipline and transparency. This lack is not confined to the Kingdom but pervades almost all the Arab economies. In 2001, Saudi Arabia had the largest GDP in the Arab World at $188 billion, followed by Egypt at $98 billion; the UAE at $55 billion; and Kuwait at $35 billion. This compared to the major economies such as the US at $10,200 billion; Japan at $4,200 billion; Germany at $1,900 billion; the UK at $1,400 billion; Mexico at $574.5 billion; and Switzerland at $240.3 billion. SAMBA projects Saudi GDP growth in 2003 to be just under 4 percent (compared with an estimate of 0.7 percent in 2002). Only Algeria, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Tunisia are projected to reach real GDP growth above 4 percent in 2003. But according to Bourland, key weaknesses remain in the Arab economies — they are still growing more slowly than their populations and labor forces; and governments rarely exercise strong fiscal discipline. Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth in 2002 of 0.7 percent pales against the annual growth of 4.9 percent in its local labor force. In neighboring Qatar the gap is even bigger: 1.5 percent GDP growth against a 6.6 percent rise in the labor force. This means that the real GDP growth relative to sustainable growth potential is negative in all Arab economies. Unemployment hangs over the Arab economies, with some of the politically most volatile and dysfunctional countries having the highest estimates. Algeria has an unemployment rate of 26.4 percent; Tunisia at 15.6 percent; Oman at 17.2 percent; Libya at 11.2 percent; Jordan at 14.4 percent; Morocco at 14.5 percent; and Egypt at 8.7 percent, with a propensity toward disguised unemployment everywhere. Despite rising oil prices, most Arab countries are still plagued by budget deficits in 2002, although the short-term effect if oil prices are sustained at current levels may reduce deficits in 2003. However, this will depend on whether governments can curb public expenditure. And if the Arab economies lack strong fiscal discipline and transparency, as the IMF stresses, the persistency of the deficits are likely to continue unless structural reforms are institutionalized. On the question of reform, while analysts welcomed the opening up of more sectors to foreign investment, especially Internet services, printing, data exchange, insurance, advertising and PR, they rue the fact that other activities including fixed-line and mobile phone services and oil exploration are still barred. A number of the reforms and new laws are drawn-out and are not retrospective, and some of them will only take effect in two years time.

www.dailytimes.com.pk

LONDON: Oil prices gushed higher in early trading here on Monday as war worries escalated at the start of a crucial week in the Iraq crisis and efforts by OPEC energy ministers to try to calm the market fell on deaf ears. The price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for April delivery climbed to $34.32 per barrel from $34.10 at the close of the previous session. In New York, the reference light sweet crude April-dated futures contract shot up 78 cents to $37.78 a barrel on Friday. Prices resumed their upswing as the UN Security Council prepared to debate a vote on a US-British resolution giving Baghdad until March 17 to disarm or face war, as France wooed opposition among African states. Washington warned it could launch strikes before next Monday’s deadline if the United Nations rejected the resolution. “It looks as if it could be a very strong week for crudes and the products as war fears mount,” said GNI-Man Financial analyst Lawrence Eagles “Iraq will continue to dominate market talk, especially as it would appear as if the US will have to go to war without a UN mandate,” he added. Jittery oil traders found little solace in remarks from oil ministers attending a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna to discuss production quotas. Venezuela and Algeria, two members of the 11-strong cartel, said they believed OPEC had enough room for manoeuvre to avoid a supply shortage in the event of war. But UAE oil minister Obaid Al-Nasseri said it would be difficult for the oil cartel to increase production as it is already at almost full capacity, a concern shared by analysts. Eagles said of the OPEC ministers, “Politically they are important but in practical terms few observers believe that there is any significant spare capacity outside of Saudi Arabia.” —AFP OPEC split on plans to suspend production ceilings during war VIENNA/TEHRAN: Iran on Monday said it opposed a bid by Western-friendly OPEC states to suspend output limits should the US launch an attack on Iraq, fuelling fears of a further spike in the price of oil. Leading cartel power Saudi Arabia is hoping to get backing at a Tuesday meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to set aside production quotas if war stops Iraqi exports. Riyadh also is trying to convince importing nations there is no need for a release, in the event of war, from their emergency strategic stockpiles. But Saudi faces stern opposition from Iran for a plan that Tehran says implies support for a US attack by controlling oil prices. “Iran will not back politically motivated decisions,” Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told the official IRNA news agency. OPEC should refrain from taking decisions which would imply support for a “US military assault against one of OPEC’s member states,” Zanganeh said. US light crude futures rose 29 cents to $38.07 a barrel, approaching 1990 Gulf War record highs of $41. “This is a perfect opportunity for OPEC to prove that it is a friend to the world community,” said Peter Gignoux, head of the energy desk at Salomon Schroder Smith Barney in London. —Reuters

news.ft.com By Nicholas George in Oslo Published: March 10 2003 22:00 | Last Updated: March 10 2003 22:00

Statoil, the Norwegian oil and gas group, may consider issuing new shares to fund its ambitious international expansion but would look for financial, rather than strategic, investors as originally planned by the government.

Norway's largest company was partially privatised in June 2001 when the government sold an 18 per cent stake through an initial public offering and said a further 15 per cent could be placed with strategic investors. At present market value, the 15 per cent stake would be worth about NKr18.5bn ($2.6bn).

It has been speculated that the most likely home for the stake would be a European downstream partner such as Germany's Ruhrgas or Gaz de France. More recently it has been suggested the equity could be swapped for oil and gas assets abroad.

But Olav Fjell, chief executive of Statoil, said he was cool on the idea of a strategic placement and it was not "written in stone" at the time of the privatisation.

Instead, Mr Fjell believes the state's stake could be diluted by a new issue to the two-thirds level approved by the Norwegian parliament.

"Should there be an opportunity that we saw for an investment that would require new equity, we would take it up with the state and discuss it.

The new cash would be used to finance international expansion as it tries to break its dependence on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Last year less than 10 per cent of the company's oil and gas production of 1.07m barrels a day came from its non-Norwegian reserves, a figure it aims to increase to 40 per cent by 2012.

Outside Norway, Statoil is keen to develop its operations in the Caspian Sea, Venezuela, West Africa and Iran. With the big oil and gas companies now concentrating on profitability rather than production targets, assets were up for sale, Mr Fjell said.