www.hindustantimes.com AP Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, March 7 In a colourful samba rendition of a classical biblical tale, a robe-clad Moses levitated atop a huge Carnival float, giving a dose of mystical magic to the finale of Brazil's famed pre-Lenten bash. An estimated 70,000 people watched as the Mangueira samba group paraded around a gilded 260-foot-long (87-meter) Pharaoh's palace with slaves wearing no more than G-strings and glitter, just enough to avoid breaking a rule against total nudity. The Mangueira theme of the Ten Commandments and its mandate against killing struck a responsive chord with the revellers who packed the city's renowned Sambadrome, singing along as the group passed the grandstands. More than 400,000 people flocked to Rio for Carnival amid unprecedented security after gang violence terrorized the city last week. "He who sows peace, reaps love," sang veteran samba crooner Jamelao, as Mangueira's 4,000 dancers and 300-member drum corps shimmied down Sambadrome's 700-yard (640-meter) parade runway. Nearby, thousands of soldiers with rifles and flak jackets stood guard near Rio's shantytowns and tourist destinations in an unprecedented show of force following five days of mayhem by drug gangs last week. Gang members apparently upset about the transfer of a notorious drug lord out of a Rio prison burned 48 cars and buses, sprayed supermarkets and police posts with gunfire and tossed six small bombs at apartment buildings. In the wake of the violence, about 40,000 police and soldiers one for every 10 Carnival visitors were deployed across Rio de Janeiro state to keep the peace. Scattered violence continued this week, with the killings of eight people in greater Rio on Monday, including two police officers, authorities said. Details were sketchy, but police said many of the incidents were routine and did nothing to upset the celebrations. Most occurred in areas far from the areas where the major Carnival events take place. The Sambadrome parades ended at dawn Tuesday with a closing march by the Imperatriz Leopoldinense group, the last of 14 that strutted their stuff before a team of judges. The samba groups are rated on their music, percussion, costumes, floats and enthusiasm. The winner will be announced Wednesday. Foreigners like Anna Michielotto were amazed at the elaborate choreography each samba group used to score points. "It's not like in Venice," said the 39-year-old museum director from Italy. "You have to participate. I'm coming back next year to parade." The threat of violence didn't stem the flood of visitors to Rio, and the state tourism board TurisRio said virtually all hotel rooms were booked. While visitors were aware of the gang violence, it didn't appear interfere with their partying. "Carnival is just great," said Teresa Golineleo, visiting Rio from the far southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina. "If there was violence, we didn't see any. All the street parties were beautiful. It's just a great time." As the parades ended, the merriment turned to "blocos" small neighbourhood groups or bands with members wearing improvised costumes as they march through the streets. The blocos are widely considered the most authentic symbol of Carnival. Among the neighbourhood groups parading was the Banda de Ipanema, the city's most traditional Carnival street band. It draws crowds of drag queens and transvestites in outrageously overdone makeup, huge platform shoes and tiny miniskirts, dancing through the posh beachside zone of Ipanema to the sassy beat of trumpets and trombones. In the northeastern city of Salvador, which rivals Rio for the title of Brazil's best Carnival, thousands of revellers jammed streets behind the ear-splitting sound trucks known as electric trios. The more privileged like Brazilian super model Gisele Bundchen rode up top, where she sang along with pop star Daniela Mercury. By contrast, Carnival was muted in Brasilia, the nation's capital. With government offices shut, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva declined offers to party and took time to rest. Carnival officially ends on Ash Wednesday, when some stores, banks and government offices begin to reopen and this predominantly Roman Catholic country slowly returns to work. But Rio's Carnival champions will parade again on Saturday, giving the winners and their fans a good excuse to extend the party through the weekend.

www.sfgate.com STAN LEHMAN, Associated Press Writer Thursday, March 6, 2003
(03-06) 19:26 PST SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) --

A wave of invasions of farms and government offices in recent days has abruptly ended a truce between landless farmworkers and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, their longtime defender.

Since Saturday, farmworkers have occupied public and private property in five Brazilian states, loudly resuming their favored tactic to pressure the government to speed up agrarian reform.

"We have waited long enough for the new government to take concrete action in favor of agrarian reform," Joao Paulo Rodrigues, a leader of the of the Landless Rural Workers Movement, or MST, said by phone Thursday. "The wait-and-see period is coming to an end."

The latest invasions are simply a dress rehearsal for a series of nationwide of protests in April, Rodrigues said.

It's an ironic twist for Silva, a former union boss who took office Jan. 1 as Brazil's first left-wing president in 40 years. His Workers Party has long championed land reform and the farmworkers' movement.

Land distribution in Brazil is among the most uneven in the world. Some 90 percent of the land is owned by just 20 percent of the people, while the poorest 40 percent of the population holds just 1 percent.

During his campaign, Silva, better known as Lula, wooed conservative ranchers and landowners by claiming that only he could control the MST. For months, the movement refrained from occupying land.

The peace ended Saturday, when some 1,000 landless farmers occupied a ranch 80 miles west of Sao Paulo.

The invasion was intended "to show Lula there's an unresolved issue he must deal with," said Maria Rodrigues, who coordinated the occupation.

The invasion was peaceful, but ranch owners quickly obtained an eviction order. MST leaders said they would leave the ranch only if the government finds another area to settle the squatters.

On Tuesday, two other properties were occupied in two southern states. On Wednesday, farmworkers took over the offices of the government's Agrarian Reform Institute in two midwestern cities.

Presidential Chief of Staff Jose Dirceu, a former radical who was jailed and exiled by a previous military regime, urged protesters to "respect the limits of democracy."

Silva has not forgotten land reform, the Agrarian Development Ministry said. In January, the government expropriated 500,000 acres of unproductive land for redistribution to landless farmers, the ministry said.

www.kansascity.com Posted on Sun, Mar. 09, 2003 STEPHEN IXER Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez claimed Sunday an international campaign involving the United States was trying to discredit his government and he warned other countries not to be fooled by the so-called smear tactics.

"There are still newspaper headlines in various parts of the world (and) officials from some governments ... that are spreading lies," said Chavez, who has been fighting a national movement attempting to force him to resign or call early elections.

The opposition claims Chavez has undermined the country's democracy and hurt the economy.

Last week, local media published a letter signed by seven U.S. congressmen calling on Chavez to refrain from persecuting his opponents and investigate the recent murders of dissident soldiers.

Days later, Caracas police arrested a man in connection with the killings of three dissident soldiers and an anti-government activist whose bound, tortured bodies were found last month. Detectives said the deaths were not politically motivated.

Chavez said the letter was drafted by foes using their "great lobbying power" backed up by "unethical" Venezuelan media outlets to fool U.S. legislators.

"They don't know this land or anything about what is really happening here," Chavez said. "Some lobbyists go there, write them a letter and get them to say some lies that make them look ridiculous in front of the whole world. But everyone is free to look ridiculous."

U.S. officials could not be reached for comment Sunday.

Two weeks ago, Chavez strongly criticized the United States, Spain and Colombia for allegedly meddling in Venezuela's domestic affairs. Within days, bombs ripped through the Spanish and Colombian diplomatic missions in Caracas.

The U.S. Embassy later closed temporarily because of a security threat. No one has been arrested for the bombings.

Meanwhile, Chavez opponents from Washington to Atlanta to Santiago, Chile, marched Sunday.

Venezuela is trying to emerge from a failed two-month general strike against Chavez. The protest, which ended last month, was strongest in the oil industry, the source of half of government revenues and 80 percent of export earnings.

Venezuela was the world's fifth-largest oil exporter before the strike began Dec. 2 and still is importing gasoline because of difficulties in bringing refineries back online.

The Organization of American States and other mediators so far have failed to advance peace talks.

Chavez, who was first elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000, says his foes want to replace him with the old status quo, when an elite minority held power for decades.

www.arabnews.com

“The impact of increased oil revenues of the Gulf states will be partly offset by the weak dollar, because oil is traded in US dollars in the international markets and most of the Gulf currencies are pegged to it.”

Mushtak Parker

LONDON, 10 March 2003 — Uncertainties over the Iraq crisis and political strife in Venezuela may have given the oil market a shot in the arm, with Brent blend prices touching $36 per barrel in early March 2003 compared to $20 per barrel in February 2002. The news of increased revenues for oil-producing states, especially in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, should be music to the ears of Treasury officials.

But beware such gifts lest they are considered in the context of the huge economic structural challenges in the Gulf, and the damage they may wreak on the global economy. Fears of an imminent war against Iraq have already sent the dollar to new lows against the euro and sterling, and forecasts about any rebound post-Saddam Hussein are mere speculation.

The price of gold has also risen, and bonds too are up, but equities continue to take a beating. The impact of increased oil revenues of the Gulf states will be partly offset by the weak dollar, because oil is traded in US dollars in the international markets and most of the Gulf currencies are pegged to it. However, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a sustained $5 per barrel increase in the price of crude oil would decrease global GDP growth by as much as 0.3 percent. Lost GDP growth year-on-year February 2002 is estimated at $1.1 billion per day. The impact of such a development would be even worse on the US and European economies.

The basic scenario is that if the Iraq crisis is resolved this side of 2003, then the US economy, supported by an accommodating Bush administration, would rebound in the second half of 2003 with real GDP growth forecast at 2.6 percent. The upswing in the UK is projected at an encouraging 2.4 percent, but the Euro zone will experience a more sluggish recovery at 1.3 percent and Japan stagnate at a negative real GDP of 0.2 percent.

The emerging markets too will improve, although there remain concerns over whether Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela will be in a position to service their foreign debt. Most analysts agree that any contagion is likely to be regional and modest.

For the Arab world, however, the exceptional oil revenues will mean that growth will be liquidity-driven (both in 2002 and 2003), a scenario which economists such as Brad Bourland, the chief economist of Saudi American Bank (SAMBA), warn could mask the inherent structural weaknesses of Arab economies.

Last November’s IMF Consultation IV report on Saudi Arabia, for instance, commended the Kingdom for its reform program, but stressed that the pace of reform is too slow and urged greater fiscal discipline and transparency. This lack is not confined to the Kingdom but pervades almost all the Arab economies.

In 2001, Saudi Arabia had the largest GDP in the Arab World at $188 billion, followed by Egypt at $98 billion; the UAE at $55 billion; and Kuwait at $35 billion. This compared to the major economies such as the US at $10,200 billion; Japan at $4,200 billion; Germany at $1,900 billion; the UK at $1,400 billion; Mexico at $574.5 billion; and Switzerland at $240.3 billion.

SAMBA projects Saudi GDP growth in 2003 to be just under 4 percent (compared with an estimate of 0.7 percent in 2002). Only Algeria, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Tunisia are projected to reach real GDP growth above 4 percent in 2003. But according to Bourland, key weaknesses remain in the Arab economies — they are still growing more slowly than their populations and labor forces; and governments rarely exercise strong fiscal discipline.

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth in 2002 of 0.7 percent pales against the annual growth of 4.9 percent in its local labor force. In neighboring Qatar the gap is even bigger: 1.5 percent GDP growth against a 6.6 percent rise in the labor force. This means that the real GDP growth relative to sustainable growth potential is negative in all Arab economies.

Unemployment hangs over the Arab economies, with some of the politically most volatile and dysfunctional countries having the highest estimates. Algeria has an unemployment rate of 26.4 percent; Tunisia at 15.6 percent; Oman at 17.2 percent; Libya at 11.2 percent; Jordan at 14.4 percent; Morocco at 14.5 percent; and Egypt at 8.7 percent, with a propensity toward disguised unemployment everywhere.

Despite rising oil prices, most Arab countries are still plagued by budget deficits in 2002, although the short-term effect if oil prices are sustained at current levels may reduce deficits in 2003. However, this will depend on whether governments can curb public expenditure. And if the Arab economies lack strong fiscal discipline and transparency, as the IMF stresses, the persistency of the deficits are likely to continue unless structural reforms are institutionalized.

On the question of reform, while analysts welcomed the opening up of more sectors to foreign investment, especially Internet services, printing, data exchange, insurance, advertising and PR, they rue the fact that other activities including fixed-line and mobile phone services and oil exploration are still barred. A number of the reforms and new laws are drawn-out and are not retrospective, and some of them will only take effect in two years time.

www.alertnet.org NEWSDESK   09 Mar 2003 22:46

CARACAS, Venezuela, March 9 (Reuters) - President Hugo Chavez, accused of having links with leftist rebels from neighboring Colombia, warned Marxist guerrillas on Sunday not to meddle in Venezuela.

"(The Venezuelan government) has insisted that Colombian guerrillas don't meddle in our territory," Chavez said in a rambling four-hour monologue during his weekly "Alo Presidente" state-sponsored television show.

Chavez sounded more conciliatory than he did last month, when he threatened to break off diplomatic relations with Colombia.

Colombia has accused Chavez of sympathizing with Colombian rebels amid a war of words between the two South American nations, which share a porous 1,400 mile (2,200 km) border of sparsely populated jungle and savanna.

"Our land is sacred ... we're ready to defend ourselves, whether they're guerrillas or not guerrillas," Chavez said in a speech during which he also told ghost stories and sang "Happy Birthday" to a member of the audience.

Relations between the two countries soured last month when Colombia's Interior Minister Fernando Londono accused Chavez of meeting Marxist guerrillas. Chavez hit back by threatening to end diplomatic relations.

A powerful bomb attack at the Colombian consulate later in February notched up tensions.

Venezuela's opposition as well as Colombian soldiers suspect Chavez, a friend of Cuban leader Fidel Castro, of ideological sympathies with Colombian rebels fighting a four-decade-old war that claims thousands of lives a year.

More controversy surfaced last week following media reported that Manuel Marulanda, top commander of Colombia's biggest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC, was hiding in Venezuela near Colombia's border.

This year Chavez has faced a national strike and huge street protests against his "revolutionary" government by a largely middle- and upper-class opposition that accuse him of taking Venezuela down the road of Cuban-style communism.

The crisis in the world's No. 5 oil supplier has drawn the international spotlight amid fears Venezuela could slide into civil war.

Chavez has refused to describe that FARC as "terrorists -- as Colombia would like them labeled -- and instead calls them "guerrillas."