www.alertnet.org NEWSDESK   10 Mar 2003 01:45 (Adds British cabinet minister threatens to quit) By Arshad Mohammed and Dominic Evans

WASHINGTON/BAGHDAD, March 9 (Reuters) - The diplomatic battle dividing the West intensified on Sunday as each side tried to woo wavering Security Council members into its camp before a U.N. vote on war in Iraq.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the United States had a "strong chance" of getting nine or 10 states in the 15-member Council to vote for a U.S.-backed draft resolution setting a March 17 deadline for Iraq to disarm but he would not be surprised if France blocked it with a veto.

Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain, Washington's closest ally, lobbied foreign leaders by telephone on Sunday, among them Chinese President Jiang Zemin, China's official media said. Powell and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice were poised to travel to press the case in person.

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin was about to embark on a whistle-stop tour of Guinea, Cameroon and Angola, "swing voters" in the Security Council, in the hope of persuading them to reject the U.S. draft.

"I would not be surprised if they (France) vetoed, because they have been pretty clear that they want to stop that resolution," Powell told "Fox News Sunday."

"Right now I would expect the French to do everything they can to stop it, including possible use of the veto, although they haven't used the veto word."

A defeat of the resolution alone is unlikely to avert war. Washington says it will lead a "coalition of the willing" into Iraq without U.N. approval if necessary, and more than 200,000 U.S. and British troops are in the region, ready to strike.

U.N. AUTHORISATION HAS HUGE VALUE FOR BLAIR

But U.N. authorisation would be of huge value to governments of U.S. allies in placating public misgivings -- especially in Britain, whose deployment of 45,000 troops is by far the biggest after the Pentagon's.

Most Britons would support war if it had U.N. backing but only 15 percent would do so without, a poll indicated on Sunday. Blair faced a home front revolt in his Labour Party, with one cabinet minister publicly threatening to quit over the issue.

International Development Secretary Clare Short, describing Blair as "reckless", said she would resign if there was no second United Nations' resolution for invasion.

Her public threat, confirming months of rumours, came as one junior government member resigned his post amid speculation four others could follow. Labour is now facing its biggest internal rift since it came to power in 1997.

A Security Council resolution needs a minimum nine votes for adoption and there must be no veto by any of the five permanent members: the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.

Russia and China join France in opposing any resolution implicitly or explicitly authorising war. But U.S. and British officials say a vetoed majority would be a moral victory.

"I think we have ... a strong chance ... that we might get the nine or 10 votes needed for passage of the resolution, and we'll see if somebody wants to veto it," Powell said.

The United States so far has the declared support of only Britain, Spain and Bulgaria. Six members seem to oppose it, instead wanting arms inspectors to have more time in Iraq.

An Iraqi official surprised a news conference in Baghdad on Sunday by saying chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix might visit Baghdad on the deadline day. "I don't know really, but he might, he might visit us on the 17th of this month," General Hussam Mohammad Amin said without elaborating.

Ewen Buchanan, a spokesman for Blix, said: "I am not aware at this point of any official invitation for Mr Blix to go to Baghdad. And if there were an invitation we would study it to see what would be the purpose of such a visit and what would be gained if anything."

A delegation of Arab foreign ministers will go to Baghdad within two days for talks aimed at averting war.

U.S. promises of economic aid to impoverished swing vote states may yet prove more tempting than political argument.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Sunday backed France's call for heads of state to attend the vote. Powell has said he sees no need for President George W. Bush to be there.

The vote could come on Tuesday or later. Driving the diplomatic pace is the military's desire to attack before soaring early summer temperatures in the Gulf make fighting in chemical and biological protection suits especially arduous.

U.S. COMMANDERS MAY DELAY WAR

But analysts say U.S. commanders may delay war until April 1 as Turkey's reluctance to be a conduit for Western forces means they must plan another way to occupy northern Iraq -- and because early April offers a moonless sky for aerial bombing.

Iraq said on Sunday U.S. and British warplanes attacked targets south of the country over the weekend and hit civilian areas, but reported no casualties.

U.N. military observers on the Iraq-Kuwait border said they were withdrawing some staff to Kuwait City for their own safety. The U.S. military had said on Saturday warplanes on U.S.-British air patrols attacked an Iraqi mobile radar system in a southern "no-fly" zone.

Gates wide enough to allow a column of tanks to pass are being installed in the fence between Kuwait and Iraq.

While Kuwait is the main launchpad for a ground invasion, Iraq's Arab neighbours are quietly playing roles they prefer not to advertise to publics strongly opposed to war.

American and British special forces are already mounting missions in western Iraq, using eastern Jordan as a base. Jordan has allowed an Iraqi opposition group, the Iraqi National Accord, to set up its main base on its soil.

Saudi Arabia said it was allowing U.S. troops to use airfields near the Iraq border, but only for defence or to prepare for a flood of refugees.

Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said Saudi Arabia would not shelter Iraqi President Saddam Hussein if he chose exile to avert invasion.

Up to 800,000 people gathered in Indonesia's second city, Surabaya, on Sunday to pray for peace. Thousands protested against war in Damascus.

Former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, winner of last year's Nobel Peace Prize, said in a New York Times opinion piece that Iraq did not directly threaten U.S. security and a unilateral U.S. attack would not meet standards for a "just war".

An attack, however, could destabilise the region, fuel terrorism directed at the United States and undermine the United Nations, he said.

Iraq scrapped more banned missiles on Sunday in a process Bush has dismissed as a "wilful charade," accusing it of covertly making more al-Samouds.

www.upi.com From the International Desk Published 3/7/2003 12:46 PM -0- The anti-war movement in Europe is starting to have real impact beyond politics. Ireland's Shannon International Airport has been virtually closed to flights and refueling stops of U.S. troops and supplies by a relentless campaign of protest. Three of the four U.S. airlines hired by the Pentagon for the transports have now said they will no longer use Shannon. Over the last three weeks, demonstrators have gotten inside the perimeter and into the hangars three times, smashing aircraft with hammers, dousing their lamps and windscreens with paint. Last week, over 1,000 anti-war protesters, citing Ireland's traditional neutrality and the failure of a United Nations mandate, tried a mass trespass onto the airport, to be held back by police backed up by Irish troops. The aircraft are now using Frankfurt airport instead, and the now well-connected European movement is planning more direct action there. Belgian police last week rounded up 150 activists who were trying to stop military convoys from U.S. bases in Germany to the port of Antwerp. -0- Just when you thought these were the last days of the last dictator, the granddaddy of them all may be coming back. To commemorate the 50th anniversary of Stalin's death, Aleksandr Kuvaev, leader of the Moscow Communist Society, has proposed cloning Uncle Joe, the man fellow Bolshevik (and victim) Nikolai Bukharin once described as "Genghis Khan with a telephone." There might be one slight problem with reviving the old thug, however; among the recent revelations is that Stalin's cronies may have poisoned him with the rat killer warfarin. -0- Indian officials have been trying hard to damp down reports of their new military understandings with Iran, insisting that their deal to upgrade and modernize Iran's Soviet-made T-72 tanks and MiG warplanes does not mean India is seeking basing rights and the possibility of opening a second front against Pakistan. But the relationship is certainly intensifying fast. A team of Indian Army engineers and Navy logistics officers is now installed at Iran's Shah Bahar naval base. The cover story is that India will be helping improve the infrastructure at the civilian port and local communications, and are running a feasibility study on boosting crude oil shipments from Iran. -0- More than half of Argentine voters want the chance to elect neighboring Brazilian president Lula in their own election in April. Research carried out by the Consultoria Graciela Romer and Associates on the image of the Brazilian president in Argentina found that Lula's support was particularly pronounced among the middle and upper classes, with 56 percent choosing Lula to lead the country. Lula also withholds the majority of the support of the voters who define themselves as center-left (71 percent) and left (66 percent). Understandable, given the performance in recent years of the Argentine politicians. -0- Argentina's new ambassador, Eduardo Amedeo, has a novel idea for raising his battered country's profile in Washington -- and easing tension. He's starting weekly tango lessons at the embassy. With the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's current ban on importing Argentinian beef during the crisis, he argues, the national dance is his only recourse. He's an excellent tango dancer himself, but has now hired a couple of teachers, and says the tango is an ideal way of creating harmony for these tense times. "When you're dancing as close to someone as you have to in the tango, you can't be unfriendly," Amedeo says. Argentinian wine will be served. -0- Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, furious at the constant foot-dragging over his country's application to join the European Union, is trying a flank move. He is going to apply for his AK (Justice and Development) Party to join the European Peoples' Party, the umbrella group of center-right that currently dominates the EU Parliament. On paper and in principle, the bid will be hard to stop. But most EPP member parties are Christian Democrats, wary of embracing Erdogan's 'moderate Islamic' party.

www.alertnet.org 07 Mar 2003 23:40 By Axel Bugge

BRASILIA, Brazil, March 7 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose government includes former left-wing guerrillas, promised his Colombian counterpart on Friday "total solidarity in the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking."

Lula's strong backing for Bogota's armed conflict with Marxist rebels could end a disagreement over his government's reluctance to brand the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia -- known by the Spanish initials FARC -- as "terrorist."

During a trip on Friday to Brasilia by Colombia's right-leaning President Alvaro Uribe, Lula, Brazil's first elected president from a left-wing party, told him he could "leave Brazil knowing that we are partners in ending violence in Colombia and Brazil."

"Brazil is committed to helping Colombia and we have total solidarity against the fight on terrorism and drug trafficking," Lula said in reference to Colombia's 40-year war which claims thousands of lives each year.

The unusually strong endorsement by a Brazilian government for Bogota marked yet another departure for Lula's Workers' Party from its radical past. The Workers' Party was created in 1980 from the labor movement and many of its members fought as guerrillas against Brazil's military rulers of 1964-1985.

The party had links with the FARC in the past.

After a recent bomb attack by the FARC in Bogota which killed 35 people, Uribe's government launched a diplomatic offensive for the region's governments to brand the FARC as terrorist. The Brazilian government only described the attack as terrorist, but not the FARC organization itself.

BRAZIL DRUG GANGS DEAL WITH FARC

Brasilia's pledge to help Colombia has practical reasons too. Brazil is one of the region's biggest markets for Colombia's drugs and Brazilian authorities have found increasing evidence of gangs dealing directly with the FARC.

Last year Brazilian authorities cracked a gang which police said was trading guns for cocaine with the FARC and Brazil's best-known drug runner was arrested in Colombia in 2001. The FARC denies smuggling drugs but admits to "taxing" coca -- the raw material used to make cocaine.

"This is a problem that Colombia suffers from today and we have to stop it because it has a dangerous capacity of expanding to our neighbors," Uribe said. "That is why we find the firmness of President Lula and his government in beating terrorism of the utmost importance."

Much of the drugs flowing into Brazil from Colombia come through the deep jungles of their 1,000-mile (1,600-km) Amazon border. If it doesn't end up sold on the streets of Brazil's cities, helping to feed spiraling violence, the drugs are shipped on to U.S. and European markets.

Uribe warned that drug crops in Colombia were "destroying the Colombian Amazon, but in some years it could destroy all of the Brazilian Amazon."

Uribe said Lula had offered Colombia access to information from the massive SIVAM radar surveillance system, which monitors the Amazon, to help control smuggling.

www.kron4.com Sunday,March9,2003,8:09 PM

Caracas, Venezuela-AP -- Venezuelan soldiers have made a dent in the war on drugs. They seized more than five tons of cocaine and 220 pounds of marijuana at two beach houses under armed guard on the Caribbean coast.

A state prosecutor says nine Venezuelans were arrested in a coastal town, 250 miles east of Caracas. The value of the drugs is unknown at this time.

A Venezuelan newspaper (El Nacional) reports the drugs came from neighboring Colombia and ultimately were destined for the United States and Europe.

biz.thestar.com.my

Two major Singapore engineering companies say they will bid for Brazilian oil platform contracts worth up to US$1bil despite new rules in the South American country that require high levels of domestic involvement. 

Both Keppel Corporation Ltd and SembCorp Marine Ltd have stakes in Brazilian firms, helping them to meet the new local content rules for oil rig contracts in the country. 

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had made the construction of the two oil platforms a campaign issue before his sweeping election win in October, saying the contracts would create jobs for the local industry. 

SembCorp Marine said it was in talks to boost its stake in a Brazilian shipyard, Maua Jurong, following the new ruling. It bought its current 35% stake in 2001 for about US$8.75mil. 

Keppel, for its part, owns 60% of Brazilian yard FELS Setal. – Reuters