www.activedayton.com A Dayton Daily News Editorial

The recent spike in gasoline prices seems not to have been met with as much skepticism as past spikes. This time, drivers, and especially hard-hit truckers, are irritated, but Americans seem to be assuming that the current problem is related to the looming war in oil country.

In fact, the recent hikes probably have as much to do with the problems of Venezuela as those of Iraq. Venezuela is a huge contributor to the pool (so to speak) of oil from which this country draws. And it has experienced a devastating oil strike.

Every time there's a spike in oil prices, there's a chorus that (rightly) says this country needs to be more serious about lessening its dependence on international oil. Since the major oil shortages and price hikes of the 1970s — a time when the nation's leadership talked a lot about the need to change our ways — progress has been minimal. Our use of foreign oil has shrunk as a percentage of our national wealth, but not in real terms.

In truth, though, the United States is not as dependent as many other modern countries, because it does have some oil of its own. Japan and Europe, for instance, are far more reliant on Mideast oil.

That's a fact that should be kept in mind by those who insist that the looming war is fundamentally about Iraqi oil. If that were true, European governments presumably would be more favorably disposed to the war than Washington.

The United States does need oil to flow freely, of course. But if Washington and London were single-minded about that, they would be finding a way to get along with Saddam Hussein, so as to get Iraqi oil.

No matter how independent this country might become of Mideast oil, Washington will still have to worry about oil flowing freely, because the United States needs healthy trading partners abroad to buy our goods. And our trading partners will continue to need that oil for a long time.

The United States can and should move in the direction of energy independence. But it should do so soberly, with its eyes open. True, American dependence on oil has done much to shape the modern Mideast and its governments. But a greater degree of American independence now would not change the current situation in Iraq much or greatly lessen American interests in the Mideast.

[From the Dayton Daily News: 03.08.2003]

Saturday, March 8, 2003 By Rick Haglund Detroit Bureau

DETROIT -- You love your gas-guzzling SUV. But you hate the possibility that you may be supporting Arab states linked to terrorism every time you gas up.

Can you avoid buying gasoline refined from Middle Eastern oil? Although a widely distributed e-mail claims you can, government and petroleum industry officials say the information is a mixture of erroneous statistics and misleading conclusions.

The e-mail, which cites data purportedly from the U.S. Department of Energy, says that oil companies Citgo, Sunoco, Conoco, Sinclair, BP/Phillips and Hess do not import oil from the Middle East.

Major importers of Arab oil, according to the e-mail, are Shell, Chevron/Texaco, Exxon/Mobil, Marathon/Speedway and Amoco.

"Keep this list in your car; share it with friends. Stop paying for terrorism," the e-mail says.

Energy Department officials say the listings are misleading. Some of the companies the e-mail claims don't import oil from the Middle East do, in fact, get oil produced in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries.

But here's the bigger problem with attempting to boycott companies that import Middle Eastern oil: Virtually all brands of gasoline sold in Michigan are mixed together in the same pipelines and storage facilities.

"It's a fungible product. It gets co-mingled," said Mark Griffin, president of the Michigan Petroleum Association, which represents gasoline wholesalers and retailers.

In other words, you could dutifully buy gasoline from Sunoco, as the e-mail suggests. But the Sunoco gas could actually have been refined from crude oil imported from the Middle East by Amoco.

"It's very difficult to know where crude oil comes from," said Bill Bush, a spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute, which represents oil companies in Washington, D.C.

Griffin said the difference in various brands of gasoline is in the additives put in the fuel just before it's delivered to retail outlets. The additives reduce engine knock, clean engine parts and perform other functions, he said.

"It's virtually impossible to say at retail that gasoline comes from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia or any other country," Griffin said.

The Energy Department has a Web site (www.eia.doe.gov) that provides information about imported oil. And the American Petroleum Institute refers people to a Web site (www.snopes2.com) that debunks "urban legends." The Web site says its top search is for information concerning the e-mail about Middle Eastern oil.

Contact Rick Haglund at (248) 540-7311 or e-mail him at rhaglund @boothnewspapers.com.

www.uticaod.com Sat, Mar 8, 2003 By KRISTA SEYMOUR Observer-Dispatch

When Paula Skibdon arrived in Deansboro last September, her reaction was one familiar to natives of Upstate New York.

"They told me that I was going to New York, and I said, yeah, New York City!" Skibdon said. "My host parents sent a post card with a picture on it of this town, but I still thought it would be close to the city, with lots of places to walk. I didn't really know how small it was until I got here."

Having grown up in San Jose, the capital city of Costa Rica, the small-town lifestyle isn't the only adjustment Skibdon, 18, who attends Waterville High School, has endured as one of around 150 AFS Intercultural Program exchange students in New York state.

"It's so cold!" she said, fingering a postcard of a sun-drenched Costa Rican beach. "But I love being here because the experience is totally different than in my country."

Terrorist threats aimed at the United States didn't discourage Skibdon from spending the year away from home.

When deciding between New Zealand, Australia and the United States, her parents encouraged her to choose the United States.

"Even when I was applying, in the United States they were going through problems with Osama bin Laden and the bomb threat for the L.A. airport, but my parents still thought it would be safest here," Skibdon said.

This is a busy time of year for exchange programs.

AFS Intercultural Program is currently looking for host families for students like Skibdon and is also accepting applications from prospective students from around the world.

The Rotary Club organizes an exchange program that begins with a rigorous application program resulting in a scholarship for accepted students.

The Utica Rotary Club, the largest in the district for exchange partnership, is beginning the application process for students eyeing the 2004-05 school year.

For Vanessa Castillo, a Rotary exchange student from Venezuela, being placed in Utica was a welcome surprise.

"I was born in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, and it was very dangerous there," said Castillo, age 18, who attends Whitesboro High School. "You couldn't go out at night. My mom went to school with me, and she even stayed with me in the classes because they steal kids from the schools there."

When she was 8, the family moved to Valenzia, a smaller city, after the family walked in on a robbery being carried out in their house.

"Nobody was hurt, but things like that happen all the time there," Castillo said.

The family feels safer in the smaller city, but, like other Venezeulans, still feel the dangers of kidnapping and violence.

"This was the dream of my life, to come to America," said Castillo, whose original trip to the U.S. was canceled after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. When another opportunity came to travel with Rotary, she gladly accepted, even though it meant leaving her college studies for a year.

"In the embassy, there are maybe 200 people every day trying to get a visa to come to America," she said. "You pay so much money and they give you an interview for maybe three minutes. Some people get it, some people don't. It's luck. So now my friends tell me that I'm lucky. I feel lucky."

While Skibdon and Castillo were surprised by small-town life, Benjamin Hoff, a Rotary exchange student from Bocholt, Germany, was prepared for it.

"People in Europe sometimes think that America is all like Hollywood, but I knew what to expect," said Hoff, who agreed to come to the U.S. after his other options, Canada, India and South Africa, were ruled out. "At first I didn't want to come to America because I know that it's such a big place, and it's easy to end up in some really small town in the middle of nowhere. Clinton is bigger than a lot of places I could have been sent, so I'm enjoying it here."

Hoff, 18, attends Clinton High School.

Both Castillo and Hoff are living with their second host families. Rotary exchange students transition between three host families during the school year to ensure that they experience different lifestyles practiced in the United States.

"Ben has been with our family since Nov. 23," said Barbara Beigel, Hoff's current host mother. "It's been great. Having him here for Christmas was fabulous."

AFS students stay with one family for the year, and Skibdon is more than happy with the arrangement.

"I've found a second family here," she said, gesturing toward the many photos of her host family that fill her bedroom. "They ask my opinion in family decisions, and they say that I'm part of the family. I even call them mom and dad."

Recent terrorist activity and continued diplomatic tensions throughout the world have limited exchange programs based in the United States.

"The exchanges usually go both ways, but that is changing," said Nicole Ollman, Northeast manager for AFS. "We do get a small number of students from Egypt, but we don't send students there. We are considering exchanging with Tunisia, but are holding off for now."

Groups help students visit foreign countries

Groups that place students around the world have different criteria, but they all try to make the best matches possible.

AFS is an exchange organization that is allowed to send students to a country without accepting a student in return. Scholarship-based organizations, such as the Rotary program, send students to countries and are expected to accept one in their place.

Scholarships and financial aid are available for AFS and groups like it, said Nicole Ollman, Northeast manager for AFS, but students willing to travel to countries not usually picked are more likely to receive financial aid.

Otherwise, they are expected to provide for their personal expenses, while the host family offers free room and board.

Ollman said that many host families opt to accept a tax deduction for this service.

Shawki Elgarhi, chairman of the Youth Exchange Committee for Utica Rotary, said they only exchange with countries that maintain positive diplomatic relations with the United States.

Benjamin Hoff and Vanessa Castillo are the only Rotary students currently living in the Utica area, but there are five American students from the area studying abroad.

The exchange is one to one, but because other countries hold academic years at varied times, the number of outbound students is not always equal to the number of inbound students.

In addition to receiving a stipend, Hoff and Castillo will join other Rotary students from all over the U.S. for a tour of the country upon completion of the academic year. Until then, they are enjoying winter in Utica.

Hoff, who snowboards in Germany, is happy with the continued snowfall that provides him with plenty of chances to practice his sport. Castillo has discovered skiing.

"In Venezeula, we don't have seasons, but the two parts of the year are hot and humid, or hot and dry," Castillo said. "I'd never seen snow before, but I really like it. I like the shape. Skiing was really hard, but then I took lessons, and I like it. You can fall down and it's still OK."

english.eastday.com

OPEC, which pumps a third of the world's oil, may struggle to lower prices from among the highest levels in 12 years as the threat of war with Iraq builds and members near their limit for output.

Ministers at a meeting on Tuesday in Vienna will probably approve a plan backed by Saudi Arabia to pump as much oil as possible should a war disrupt supply from Iraq, the third-largest Middle East producer, officials and analysts said.

Yesterday, Iraq's deputy oil secretary warned that Iraq would take up arms to protect its oil wealth, and predicted that if a U.S.-led invasion begins, the price of oil could reach US$70 a barrel.

Oil prices last week reached the highest since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and touched US$39.99 a barrel in New York, raising fuel costs and threatening to stunt economic growth. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the capacity to refill U.S. inventories, which set a 28-year low last month.

"There isn't enough OPEC capacity to cover the loss of Iraq," said Leo Drollas, deputy executive director of the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, a consulting company founded by former Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani. "We're entering a probable war with low inventory cover. Prices could go higher still as the war drums beat louder."

Ten OPEC countries set oil-output quotas as a way to control oil prices and supply, and member Iraq has no quota because its sales are under United Nations oversight. The group raised quotas in January and February after exports from Venezuela were crimped by a strike and a colder-than-normal winter raised demand.

Oil ministers will set policy for the second quarter as analysts expect any U.S.-led attack on Iraq, source of 2.5 million barrels a day or 3 percent of the world's oil, to take place within weeks. Oil demand normally declines after the first quarter because of the Northern Hemisphere spring.

Indonesia's Oil Minister, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, said OPEC should keep quotas unchanged until the group knows the result of the standoff between the U.S. and Iraq. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait want to raise quotas, he said.

Whether OPEC suspends restraints or not, members are ignoring them. In February, all nations exceeded their output quota except Indonesia and Venezuela, members unable to pump more.

"They already have an informal understanding that everybody should produce as much as they can," said Adam Sieminski from Deustche Bank AG. "Probably the best decision that OPEC could make is steady as she goes."

OPEC's oil production rose 6.3 percent in February, the biggest monthly increase in four years, as output in Venezuela rebounded after the two-month strike and other nations pumped more, a Bloomberg News survey this week showed.

Analysts put OPEC's spare capacity at about 2 million barrels a day, less than Iraq's daily output. Two million barrels is enough to meet daily demand in France, the world's fifth-largest economy.

The situation would worsen should Kuwait close oil fields in the event of war. Kuwait, OPEC's sixth-largest producer in February, said this week it will close all northern oil fields if the U.S. attacks neighboring Iraq to avert damage. The fields produce about 500,000 barrels a day.

(Bloomberg News)

www.irna.com

Vienna, March 8, IRNA -- Venezuelan Energy and Mines Minister Rafael Ramirez has said here that by the end of this month his country expected to reach its crude oil production quota of 2.819 million b/d, assigned by OPEC.
The OPEC News Agency (OPECNA) reported here today, he was quoted as saying that Venezuela once again would occupy, "its role on the world market as a stabilizing country and secure oil supplier, news that has been received by our clients as excellent and encouraging".
The minister noted that during the last OPEC meeting towards the end of 2002, Venezuela defended its quota, explained the true situation of "a terrorist sabotage to which it was subjected", and guaranteed that it would return "with all its production volume, which we are about to recover".
Ramirez said: "We are sure that we are going to recover nationalproduction during the first half of this month to its normal level of about three million b/d, which will allow us to re-establish the production quota set by the Organization.
"Therefore, we will participate in the ordinary conference scheduled for the middle of this month in Vienna, where we will take up again our commitment and confidence with our international clients who have increased in recent days," noted the minister.
"We are recovering our oil production in a sustained fashion. Currently it is above 2.5 million b/d, and within hours will be at 2.8 million b/d, which means that we will not only be at the required level for the internal market, where gasoline
production is at 60 per cent, but additionally will allow us to
strengthen exports," he added.
MN/NA/AR
End