www.vheadline.com Posted: Wednesday, March 05, 2003 By: Gustavo Coronel

VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: No one can predict the future, although many try. The problem with trying is that the risks and costs of being wrong are too high.

In Corporate Strategic Planning, foretelling the future has been replaced ... decades ago ... by the drawing of multiple scenarios, and the analysis of the impact that each scenario can have on our company, family or country, as the case may be.

• In this manner we can prepare ourselves to minimize the negative impact of an unfriendly scenario or maximize the benefits of a friendly one.

Planning our strategies for multiple futures has the additional advantage of being able to choose the preferred one and try to "make it happen."

This type of planning is very rational, but still largely limited to private business in developing countries ... national planning in these countries still tends to be highly deterministic and based on political dogma, more than on a more pragmatic analysis of possible futures.

These governments tend to assume that their "favorite" scenario is the only one worth considering, so that their planning becomes just a linear prediction.

Trying to anticipate where Venezuela will be in a few year's time requires drawing scenarios based on economic, political and social assumptions.

Such an exercise is characterized by uncertainty, although it is possible to assign probabilities to every assumption. In doing this we can be greatly helped by a cautious extrapolation of past trends.

Some of the key assumptions in the drawing of three basic Venezuelan scenarios include:

1. Political Environment, % Probability A. Consolidation of the Revolution B. Early elections, change of Government C. Open political violence

2. Economic Environment A. Low private investment, high unemployment, low government investment; B Increasing private investment, rising employment more capital expenditure by government C. Economic paralysis

3. Social Environment. A. Continued class struggle, great social unrest B. Diminishing social tensions, reconciliation C. Civil War.

Obviously the exercise calls for objective evaluation of probabilities rather than assigning maximum probabilities to our preferred scenario.

Although I clearly prefer scenario 1B, I can only assign it at this time equal probabilities to that of 1A ... and only a little more to 1C ... something along the lines of 35%, 35% and 30% respectively.

This is not what I would prefer since the "negative scenarios" combine for 65% of probability.

Whatever the political scenario becoming real, it will very strongly influence the economic and social scenarios.

The consolidation of the "revolution" would most probably lead, due to its ideological nature, to less private investment, higher capital flight, more unemployment, more State control ... more than good or bad this is factual.

Of course many followers of the current Venezuelan government will be most reluctant to accept that the "revolution" can only bring more poverty and increasing social and economic disarray.  They will be against accepting statistics to this effect.

• This is why I would recommend that international organizations such as the UN, the IMF, the IDB and the OAS provide most of these statistics.

I think it would be most advisable that the "Group of Friends" promotes a poll, supervised internationally, to measure the "mood" of the country ... today we have the government "truth" and the opposition "truth" but not the "truth."

So, where will Venezuela be in 2006?. Nobody knows...

But, every one of us can draw his/her own scenarios...

Many years ago, a bright student who wanted to make his old teacher look foolish, hid a small bird in his hands, behind his back. He asked his teacher: "Master, Is the bird I have in my hands dead or alive?" If he says dead, I will let it fly. If he says alive, I will strangle it...

The old teacher looked at him evenly and replied: "It will be as you wish..."

So it will be with Venezuela 2006.

Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983.  In 1998, he was presidential election campaign manager for Henrique Salas Romer and now lives in retirement on the Caribbean island of Margarita where he runs a leading Hotel-Resort.  You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email ppcvicep@telcel.net.ve

www.vheadline.com Posted: Wednesday, March 05, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

National Guard (GN) Anti-Drugs Command chief, General Jose Antonio Paez Cabrera says there are more ecstasy pills entering the country and being consumed.

“Formerly pills were imported from the Netherlands but other countries, such as Colombia, are now producing.”

498 pills have been seized in Central West Venezuela during a review of post office packets hidden inside a videotape that had been addressed to Curacao.

The police say they have evidence that the pills' final destination was Miami.

“It’s difficult to detect the merchandise and we are asking the Netherlands, UK, USA and Italian police for help … an Australian narcotics control police delegation is on its way to Venezuela to exchange information.”

The General  states that his Command has continued working as normal during the political crisis … the GN is clear about the importance of the Command and we have the confidence of foreign narcotic control agencies.”

reuters.com Wed March 5, 2003 04:19 PM ET By Jason Webb

BOGOTA, Colombia (Reuters) - U.S. troops are helping hunt Colombia rebels who captured three Americans but the United States has no plans to expand its military presence, a senior U.S. official said on Wednesday.

Washington has flown about 50 extra personnel to Colombia to assist a massive Colombian army rescue operation to find three Defense Department contractors seized by Marxist guerrillas when their plane crashed on Feb. 13.

The deployment in a country bogged down in a messy four-decade civil war means that the number of American military personnel in Colombia has slightly exceeded a cap of 400 imposed by U.S. Congress, but it will make no difference to the ground rules of assistance from Washington, the official said.

"What will remain a base here it seems to me is our interest in having Colombians doing this job for Colombians," the official told reporters, asking not to be identified.

Although he refused to rule out the participation of a small number of Special Forces in a rescue operation, American troops here are otherwise limited to working in training and intelligence.

Future American involvement in Colombia, the third-largest destination for U.S. military aid after Israel and Egypt, will be similar to the recent past, the official said.

"Not breaking caps, no combat forces, this is a Colombian responsibility," he said, adding that the U.S. commitment to the country would not be sapped by its deployments elsewhere.

"I don't think our effort in trying to get Iraq to disarm has anything to do with what we do or don't do with Colombia."

The United States has given Colombia about $2 billion in mainly military aid in recent years, targeted mostly for the cocaine trade but also, more recently, at rebels.

U.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs Marc Grossman met President Alvaro Uribe on Wednesday to discuss U.S. aid and recent progress in reducing crops used for cocaine.

U.S. TO THE RESCUE

Many in the United States have long feared that U.S. troops could get sucked into a Vietnam-style quagmire in Colombia, where thousands of people are killed every year.

At least seven people were killed and 68 hurt on Wednesday when a bomb ripped through an underground parking lot at a shopping mall in Cucuta, on the border with Venezuela.

Uribe is an enthusiastic U.S. ally and has even suggested that the United States fill the Caribbean with troops to strangle the drug trade.

The arrival of reinforcements for the rescue operation spurred some opposition politicians here to complain that fighting by U.S. troops would violate Colombian sovereignty.

But opinion polls show many Colombians, tired of their troops' failure to beat rebels and right-wing militias, would welcome direct intervention by U.S. forces.

Washington has been pleased with Colombia's attempts to find its citizens, another U.S. official said.

"The Colombian military has done a wonderful job on this. They've got close to 5,000 folks out there and one way or another they're in harm's way."

The three Americans were captured by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, a group known by the Spanish initials FARC, when their U.S. government plane crashed in the steamy southern province of Caqueta, a guerrilla stronghold.

The rebels, who killed a fourth American and a Colombian army sergeant on board the plane, say their captives are CIA agents and want to swap them for guerrillas held in Colombian jails. U.S. officials insist they are civilian Defense Department contractors who were taking part in an intelligence mission.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Wednesday, March 05, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Relatively unknown children’s affairs researcher Maria Angelica Sepulveda has been elected to serve on Child Watch International board of directors for the 2003-2006 period.

• Sepulveda is director of the Metropolitan University Infancy & Family Research Center. “It’s a real honor and recognition of the work our center has been doing for children and the family.

Child Watch International Research Network is based in Oslo, Norway and is said to be a leading light in the research of children’s standards of living throughout the world ... it has centered research over the last couple of years on the implementation of children’s rights.  She was elected at a conference of directors in Thailand to which she was invited.

www.ktvu.com POSTED: 12:19 p.m. PST March 5, 2003

SAN FRANCISCO -- San Francisco Bay area gas prices are breaking records and irritating motorists, and the price is not much lower in Southern California.

In San Francisco, regular unleaded fuel now costs an average of $2.19 a gallon, according to a survey by AAA of Northern California. In Oakland, gas averages $2.09 a gallon, and in San Jose it has hit $2.08.

Statewide, the average price is $2.04, beating the previous record of $2.03 set in May 2001.

The average price was a bit under $2.01 per gallon in the Los Angeles area and about a penny higher in Orange County. San Diego drivers were paying an average of nearly $2.04 per gallon.

Over the past year, the price for self-serve regular gas has jumped an average of 67.8 cents in California.

"It's ridiculous," said Sandra Cerrigan, who paid $2.23 for gas for her Land Rover at a San Francisco Chevron Station. "We're getting gouged."

Prices could rise even further for the summer driving season, which begins in March, said Sean Comey, AAA spokesman. He said gas prices are typically lower in winter.

California usually has higher gas prices than most other states because the state has higher fuel taxes and requires a special blend of lower-smog fuel. Nationally, gas prices averaged $1.68 Tuesday, according to AAA. The record is $1.72, set on May 15, 2001.

A spokeswoman for the American Petroleum Institute said the higher prices are determined by crude oil prices and other factors.

The price for crude oil almost reached a 12-year high last week at $36.70 a barrel. A potential war in Iraq, cold weather on the East Coast and a strike in Venezuela are blamed for pushing the price of a barrel that high.

"California gasoline prices have been rising steadily for the past nine and a half weeks and increases are likely to continue," Carol Thorp, spokeswoman for the Automobile Club of Southern California, said in a written statement. "The slow march to a possible war with Iraq has been the major factor in pushing up prices. Gas price reductions may be unlikely until the Iraq situation is resolved."

When taking into account inflation, current gas prices still are not as high as they were two decades ago, when they hit a peak after President Reagan deregulated gas prices.