www.nytimes.com By NEELA BANERJEE

he oil industry is already feeling powerful repercussions from the current economic and political volatility spawned by fears of war in the Persian Gulf, according to Lee Raymond, the chairman and chief executive of Exxon Mobil, the world's largest oil company.

In a rare and broad-ranging meeting yesterday in New York with securities analysts and journalists, Mr. Raymond pointed out, for example, that oil prices near $40 a barrel create a number of problems for oil companies.

"Frankly, we're not comfortable with oil prices in the high 30's," he said. "They can have long-range impacts that are not all that attractive."

When prices rise so high, they usually fall quite far and quite rapidly, and such volatility "over a long period of time puts a damper on investment" in the industry, Mr. Raymond said.

"It's easy to live with the peaks, but the fear is what the valleys will bring," he said. When investment in new fields and projects declines, less oil gets produced and prices generally remain higher.

Mr. Raymond said he also worried that high prices would lead to a backlash against the oil industry.

"We seem to have an investigation every time prices are high," he said. "Why is there never an investigation when prices go down?"

With the strike in Venezuela continuing and the looming possibility of war with Iraq, Mr. Raymond declined to predict how long oil prices would stay high.

Analysts estimate that Iraq currently exports a little less than 2 million barrels a day, legally and otherwise, and there is a very strong chance those exports would halt if the United States attacked.

"If the Iraqi oil disappears, you get into the question of whether it is transitory or whether capacity has been lost," Mr. Raymond said. "It's clear if there is a war, they will stop exporting. But what the markets will ask is, how long the war will be? Or will Saddam Hussein have torched his oil fields?"

Mr. Raymond said he thought the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would try to make up for any shortfall of Iraqi oil, although they were already pumping at near full capacity. But he also predicted that if supplies dwindled and an oil shortage became a real possibility, the Bush administration might step in.

"I think under those circumstances the United States government would start releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve," Mr. Raymond said, referring to an emergency stockpile of crude oil the country keeps to cushion disruptions of oil supplies.

Mr. Raymond said that the energy crisis of 1973 had taught the government and the oil companies how to cope with supply crises. He urged the government not to cap prices, as it did in the 1970's, or domestic supplies might dwindle and rationing might have to begin.

"You have to focus on whatever you need to do to keep the continuity of supply," he said. "It's very important not to have gasoline lines at service stations."

www.sunspot.net By Joe Christensen Sun Staff Originally published March 5, 2003

O's, Mora on opposite sides of fence he's swinging for Player sees dollars in HRs; team cites falling average

Instead of serving as the Orioles' super utility player or their perpetual 10th man, he's their everyday center fielder. He's a powerful presence in their lineup, and his strength helps propel the team back to the top, putting him in the playoffs for the first time since 1999, when he was a New York Met.

"If you play me in one position every day," Mora said, "I can hit .270 with 80 RBIs and 30 home runs."

The Orioles appreciate Mora's desire and admire his resolve, but they have an entirely different view of his ideal role. They see him as a table setter who's not afraid to lay down a bunt, sacrificing power numbers for average. However, Mora, in his quest for an everyday starting job, has tried to morph himself into a home run hitter.

For Mora, it all goes back to a conversation he had last year with Orioles third baseman Tony Batista.

"I used to hit .290 or .295 with six homers," Mora said this week. "I never got a chance to play. I said to myself, 'What do I have to do?' I was talking to Tony, and he said, 'If you want to play, if you want to make money, you have to drive in runs. You have to hit for power.' "

Mora hit 19 home runs last season, which was quite a spike, considering he had never hit more than eight in any of his previous 10 professional seasons.

Something else changed, too. After entering the season as a .259 career hitter, his average dropped to .233. Mora thrust himself into the Orioles' everyday leadoff role and was one of the team's top players for three months, but after the All-Star break, he hit .195.

He had 18 home runs entering September, and using an upper-cut swing, he looked as if he were on a mission to reach 20 for the season. With the team in a tailspin down the stretch, Mora hit .137 over the final month.

"Melvin's not a power hitter," Orioles manager Mike Hargrove said. "He had 19 home runs last year; in today's game, that's not a power hitter. Twenty years ago it was, but today it's not. Melvin's game is using the whole field, getting on base any way he can, bunting the ball, and scoring runs.

"In talking to him, he was saying his approach was to try to hit the ball out of the ballpark - a lot, especially the second half of the season. I think that the results were obvious to everybody."

Still, there was a payoff for Mora.

After making $350,000 last season, Mora was eligible for arbitration for the first time, and his salary for this season rose to $1.73 million.

Fans might cringe when a modern-day athlete talks about the need to make more money, but Mora's is a special case. He has six children now, including a set of quintuplets, and the medical bills are high. He also gives money back to his family in Venezuela.

Orioles hitting coach Terry Crowley, a former bench player himself, probably understands Mora's situation as well as anybody. But Crowley said he wants all of his hitters to place a greater emphasis on team-based fundamentals this season: bunting and situational hitting.

"I'm not trying to say Melvin didn't do that last year," Crowley said, "but we will be better."

In 2001, Mora led the Orioles with 17 bunt hits.

Last year, he had one.

"In his defense - and I'm always going to defend my hitters - the first baseman and third baseman were breathing down his neck," Crowley said. "The opportunities to bunt were not great."

Mora has spent extra time this spring on his bunting and said he plans to make it a bigger part of his repertoire. In yesterday's 11-1 loss to the Minnesota Twins, Mora went 0-for-2, popping out to shortstop and flying out to left field. For the spring, he's still batting .364.

Hargrove has said that, ideally, with the rest of the lineup healthy, Mora would start about two or three times a week this season. The Orioles have talked about trading Mora this spring, but teams have told them he's too expensive at his current salary. The Orioles know he'll still be a hot trade commodity at the waiver deadline, especially for National League contenders.

Mora said that's out of his control, just like the everyday lineup decisions.

"I know Mike Hargrove has a tough job," Mora said. "There are a lot of good players here. I'm just going to do what I can do, and we'll see what happens."

www.whittierdailynews.com120351220648,00.html 3/5/2003 By Gabe Lacques , Staff Writer

Even though he has pitched just two innings this spring and has thrown less than 20 pitches, Francisco Rodriguez can sense a different mentality from opposing hitters.

In short, that mentality is to attack before Rodriguez has the count is in his favor.

"If a hitter goes deep into a count with me, he's in trouble,' Rodriguez said Tuesday after throwing a scoreless inning in the Angels' 5-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs at HoHoKam Park. "I'm going to attack him. So these guys are being aggressive, swinging early in the count. I'm trying to go after them and be aggressive. I have to attack.'

The result has been two lightning-quick outings. Tuesday, Rodriguez retired the side on just five pitches even though Corey Patterson reached on a wild pitch after striking out. Rodriguez induced a double-play ball from Nic Jackson to end the inning, then called it a day.

After two spring training outings, Rodriguez's line looks like this: Two innings pitched, no hits, no runs and just 17 pitches.

Tuesday's outing was so brief, Rodriguez didn't have a chance to work on a changeup he hopes to develop to go along with his more established fastball and slider.

Rodriguez pitched just four innings of winter ball because of political unrest in Venezuela, but he said his arm feels lively. He's only concerned with fine-tuning his mechanics this spring. He also said he's not taking anything for granted, even in the wake of his record-setting five- win performance last October.

"I'm not sure I'm making the team, so I'm working hard on that,' he said. "I've told you guys before, what I did is in the past.'

Pitching coach Bud Black is pretty sure Rodriguez will make the club. He also said when a pitcher is as talented and competitive as Rodriguez, outings tend to be over before he can work on supplementary pitches, especially when the word is out about the Angels' 21-year-old talent.

"That's his competitive nature coming out,' Black said. "I'd want to hit as early (in the count) as I could against Frankie, too.'

It seems likely pitcher Jarrod Washburn will be able to make his opening night assignment. Washburn originally said the Grade 1 sprain of his AC joint he suffered Monday would sideline him a week to 10 days, but he said Tuesday he could be throwing off a mound sooner than that.

Doctors told Washburn the pain in his shoulder would be worse the next morning. But he woke up Tuesday and discovered the shoulder actually felt better.

"Maybe I'll come in (today) and all the pain will be gone,' he said.

That might be wishful thinking. But even if Washburn can't throw off a mound for a week, as was originally believed, he said he would need only two weeks to build up sufficient arm strength to make a start in a regular-season game. If Washburn returns Monday, he will have 20 days to get ready for opening night.

Washburn also made sure to absolve reliever Brendan Donnelly of any blame for his injury. Washburn fell on his shoulder trying to avoid a collision with Donnelly in a fielding drill; Washburn was actually the baserunner on the play.

"He has nothing to feel bad about,' Washburn said. "He didn't have anything to do with it.'

The Cubs won Tuesday's game on Augie Ojeda's sacrifice fly off Mark Lukasiewicz in the bottom of the ninth inning. Starter Kevin Appier, who threw three scoreless innings, escaped the first inning unscathed despite giving up three hits and a walk. Appier allowed just one baserunner after that.

Fifth-starter candidate Matt Wise gave up a two-run home run to David Kelton but nothing else in three innings. Robb Quinlan hit a three- run homer for the Angels. Former USC standout Mark Prior looked sharp in a three-inning, one-hit, two-strikeout stint for the Cubs.

Tim Salmon, easing his way into shape after off-season knee surgery, was scheduled to bat in a simulated game Tuesday ... Catchers Jason Hill and Jared Abruzzo and infielder Dallas McPherson were sent to minor league camp. McPherson needs treatment on his back and is not expected to return. Hill has a shoulder injury and will return to big league camp.

Gabe Lacques can be reached at (626) 962-8811, Ext. 2239, or by e-mail at gabe.lacques@sgvn.com .

reuters.com Wed March 5, 2003 02:43 AM ET By Tanya Pang

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices firmed further on Wednesday, looking to key data on U.S. fuel stockpiles to drive direction in the short-term as the United Nations continued to debate possible war in Iraq.

Brokers said another bombing in the Philippines injected fresh uncertainty into the market along with news that members of the Russian business community in Iraq were leaving.

U.S. light crude CLc1 traded 32 cents higher to $37.21 a barrel after Tuesday's $1.01 rally in New York.

"Although there is no direct link with the Philippines and oil, people are taking the bombings as an overall rise in terror tensions and an area of concern," said analyst Lawrence Eagles at brokers GNI-Man in London.

"News that Russian families are pulling out of Iraq has also raised expectations of a step closer to war. But the U.S. data will dominate today," he said.

Police said a home-made bomb exploded in the southern Philippine city of Cotabato on Wednesday, a day after a bomb attack killed 21 people at an airport to the east, which military officials blamed on the Muslim separatist group the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. The MILF denied any involvement.

U.S. crude has swung in a wide range of more than $4.50 in the last five trading days after touching a 12-year peak at $39.99 on February 27, and is about 20 percent higher then at the start of the year.

The prospect of a war in oil exporter Iraq comes at a time when crude stocks in the United States are hovering at low levels not seen since the mid-1970s, increasing anxiety that the world's biggest oil consumer may face a supply crunch.

Apart from lower sales from strike-bound Venezuela, which normally supplies 13 percent of U.S. imports, traders fear war in Iraq may disrupt supplies from other producers in the Middle East, which pumps about 40 percent of globally traded crude oil.

OPEC REASSURES

The OPEC producers cartel has sent reassurances to the market that it will cover any shortfall to world supplies should a military attack on Iraq disrupt its crude exports of roughly two million barrels per day.

But traders and analysts say that most members of the Middle East-dominated group are already pumping at full tilt and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has little spare capacity to utilize, except kingpin producer Saudi Arabia.

"We're looking for crude to move above $40 when the attack is launched on Iraq. Even if OPEC does increase production we still see supplies remaining tight," said Tetsu Emori, chief strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo.

The U.S. government Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release later on Wednesday its weekly status report on the health of U.S. fuel stocks. Analysts predict crude supplies will increase slightly but winter heating oil stocks will fall.

In a Reuters poll, six analysts forecast U.S. crude inventories to show a rise of 1.25 million barrels as Saudi Arabia bumped up imports to its ally.

The survey showed stocks of distillates, including heating oil, falling by two million barrels with demand still running high as a severe spell of unusually cold temperatures continued.

Heating oil stocks fell below 100 million barrels last week for the first time in three years, EIA data showed.

Analysts pegged gasoline tanks declining by 500,000 barrels.

MORE TROOPS TO GULF

The United States ordered 60,000 more troops into the Gulf region on Tuesday in its preparations for a military strike on Iraq, which it says is not in full compliance with U.N. demands to disarm weapons of mass destruction.

The United States and Britain has already amassed a 250,000-strong force in the region.

Secretary of State Colin Powell said Washington was gaining support on the U.N. Security Council for a new resolution against Iraq, which at the weekend began to destroy its illegal al-Samoud 2 missiles.

Washington, backed by Britain and Spain, is meeting resistance for a new U.N. resolution permitting military force from Russia, France, China and Germany.

The Interfax news agency on Wednesday quoted a Russian diplomat in Baghdad as saying that about 150 members of the Russian business community in Iraq were flying out.

U.S. preparations hit a snag at the weekend when Turkey's parliament voted against the deployment of U.S. troops on its soil, which would have given access to northern Iraq.

Turkey's government said on Tuesday it was considering a second try at winning parliamentary approval.

www.stjoenews-press.com Wednesday, March 05, 2003 By KEN NEWTON kenn@npgco.com

On a cold day, the news from Washington warmed some low-income families in Missouri.

The Bush administration on Tuesday released $150 million for home-heating assistance. The allotment included $1.85 million for Missouri.

Funds from the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program have helped about 1,500 families in Buchanan County, said Pat Niland, Division of Family Services income-maintenance supervisor in St. Joseph.

The program helps eligible families pay for heating and insulating their homes in the winter. They can get one subsidy per heating season, Ms. Niland said, with the amount dependent on household size, income and source of heat.

“Some folks are being threatened with shutoff, and others are not,” she said.

Missouri’s Cold Weather Rule, adopted by the state’s Public Service Commission in 1977, helps protect families having trouble paying their home energy bills. Between Nov. 1 and March 31, utilities under PSC jurisdiction can not shut off service on a day when the temperature is expected to be below 30 degrees.

Tuesday’s release of program funding was the second this year. In January, the administration turned over to states $200 million in emergency funds, $2.96 million of which came to Missouri.

“It’s always good news when we have a release of that money,” PSC Chairman Kelvin Simmons said Tuesday.

Mr. Simmons said that as early as last April, the PSC believed that the situation in the Middle East and political turmoil in Venezuela could push higher the costs of natural gas. This spike in heating costs would put a greater burden on low-income families.

“The only saving grace now is that we’re getting some warmer weather,” he said. “It would be a different story if this were November instead of March.”

Paul Snider, a spokesman for Missouri Gas Energy in St. Joseph, said recent warm winters and one heating season of extraordinarily high gas prices makes it hard to fully gauge the need for assistance this year.

But, he noted, the release of federal money is welcome to those who take advantage of the program.

“It will be put to good use,” he said.

Those interested in the program can call the local Division of Family Services office at (816) 387-2000, or the state office at (800) 392-1261.