Adamant: Hardest metal
Tuesday, March 4, 2003

Gas prices set record: $2.03 a gallon, on average

www.nctimes.net DAN McSWAIN Staff Writer

Little surprise here ---- gasoline prices hit a record high in North County on Monday, as a gallon of regular cost an average $2.03, up 10 cents from a week earlier and 64 cents higher than one year ago, a North County Times survey found.

State officials estimate that the increase costs a typical two-car family an extra $64 a month. The previous record, $1.97 a gallon, was reached on May 21, 2001.

Because California consumers burn about 1.25 billion gallons a month, officials estimate, the oil industry is reaping additional revenue from the state at a rate of $800 million a month.

North County drivers were struggling to hang onto some of that cash Monday, making for a crowded lot at Valley Fuels on East Valley Parkway, where regular cost $1.92 a gallon, among the cheapest in Escondido.

"I think it's greed; I don't think there's a shortage of anything," said Jack Bryson, an Escondido resident, as he filled his eight-cylinder Dodge Ram 1500 pickup.

Also in line for gas was Matt Bere of Solana Beach. He was dwarfed by his Ford Expedition, which he estimates gets 16 miles to a gallon but has plenty of room for his surf board.

"I love the car," Bere said. But the price of gas? "It seems absolutely outrageous."

Across the street, a Chevron station charged $2.10 for regular.

Oil industry analysts say that about half of this year's surge in prices at the pump has been caused by a sharp rise in worldwide costs for crude oil, which in turn have been driven higher by war clouds in the Persian Gulf and curtailed exports from Venezuela.

But energy economists say the other half has gone directly to California's seven giant refining companies ---- BP West Coast Products LLC (the Arco brand's parent), ChevronTexaco Corp., ExxonMobil Corp., Shell Oil Products U.S., ConocoPhillips (76 and Circle K) Valero Energy Corp. (Ultramar) and Tesoro Petroleum Corp. ---- which control supplies and have apparently taken advantage of the turmoil to boost profits.

"Refiner margins have gone up," said Severin Borenstein, a Berkeley economist who heads the University of California's Energy Institute.

Station owners, who have faced skyrocketing wholesale prices for gasoline, have been less fortunate, Borenstein said. "It's very unlikely that dealer margins have gone up."

Another indication of larger profits for refiners in California is the widening premium over retail prices in other states, where refiners pay an equivalent or greater cost for their crude oil supplies.

A survey taken Monday by the U.S. Department of Energy found that the national average for a gallon of regular was $1.69, a staggering 34 cents cheaper than in North County.

Borenstein calculates that California's low-emissions fuel recipe ought to cost about 10 to 12 cents more than gasoline in other states, but that the additional 22 cents probably represents premium pricing by in-state refining companies.

Consumer advocates and some members of Congress have called for investigations into whether oil companies are "price gouging," or reaping unfair profits.

Oil company executives have become increasingly loath to talk to reporters as prices have shot higher over the last 10 weeks. Instead, most have referred calls to industry lobbyists.

One of them, Anita Mangels, of the Western States Petroleum Association, said last week that California's refining companies are simply passing along their higher costs to buy crude oil.

"I think the general consensus out there is that this is a market issue," Mangels said. "It is strictly market conditions that determine retail prices."

Mangels predicted that official probes into high prices at the pump will go nowhere. "Usually, when these things occur (price spikes), there are the inevitable investigations and the inevitable findings that no wrongdoing did occur," she said.

A series of price shocks in 1998 and 1999 sparked a widely publicized investigation by California Attorney General Bill Lockyer, which found no illegal activity but suggested a series of measures to head off future rounds of sudden increases. None has been adopted by the Legislature.

This time, Lockyer has been relatively silent on the issue. Calls to his office Monday were not returned.

Contact staff writer Dan McSwain at (760) 740-3514 or dmcswain@nctimes.com.

3/4/03

Leading Mid-Cap Managers Name 10 Favorites

biz.yahoo.com Tuesday March 4, 7:00 am ET By Christopher Davis

We've been talking to a lot of value-oriented mid-cap fund managers lately, and their picks run the gamut, ranging from utility and retail stocks to beaten-down blue chips and retailers. Below is a roundup of some of the names that have emerged in recent conversations with stock-pickers.

Dave Wallack, T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Value (Nasdaq:TRMCX - News) Although he hasn't been at the helm of this offering for long, Dave Wallack has executed his bargain-hunting style with aplomb. He bought beaten-down financials and media names such as SAFECO (NasdaqNM:SAFC - News) and Washington Post (NYSE:WPO - News) in 2001, in time for their rallies in 2002. More recently, Wallack has lightened his stakes in those names while adding electric utilities FirstEnergy (NYSE:FE - News) and TXU (NYSE:TXU - News), which he says were unfairly painted with the same brush as Enron (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News) and other highly-leveraged energy traders. And he boosted his weighting in oil producer Amerada Hess (NYSE:AHC - News) after it slumped amid worries over its ties with politically volatile Venezuela and disappointing exploration results in Africa. Wallack says the company trades at a large discount to its private market value, though, and stands to benefit from higher oil prices. He also initiated a position in telecom-equipment maker Tellabs (NasdaqNM:TLAB - News). He says the company is reasonably priced, boasts a solid balance sheet, and is the dominant equipment provider to Baby Bells such as SBC (NYSE:SBC - News) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ - News), the survivors of the telecom wreck.

John Rogers, Ariel Appreciation (Nasdaq:CAAPX - News) John Rogers recently took charge of this fund, but his long and successful record at Ariel Fund (Nasdaq:ARGFX - News) suggests that paying attention to his picks can be worthwhile. He seeks out companies trading at a 40% discount to their intrinsic values and favors firms in consistent and stable industries with high barriers to entry. In 2002's fourth quarter, high-end retailer Tiffany (NYSE:TIF - News) met his standards on a number of fronts. For one, its brand name is renowned, so much so that it devotes a far smaller percentage of sales to advertising than other luxury retailers. Second, Rogers contends it is a high-quality business. Tiffany's classic designs have a shelf life of 20 to 30 years, which enables it to adhere to a strict policy of never putting merchandise on sale. Management is also seasoned and has a strong record of boosting margins and maintaining high returns on capital. The stock is down thanks to slumping sales in Japan, but Rogers thinks the dip is temporary and provides an opportunity for long-term investors.

Bob Olstein, Olstein Financial Alert (Nasdaq:OFALX - News) It's taken the collapse of Enron and WorldCom to get investors to appreciate the virtues of conservative accounting, but Bob Olstein has insisted on clean balance sheets all along. He also requires his picks to trade at a 30% discount to their intrinsic values and doesn't necessarily limit himself to mid-caps in his quest for bargains. In recent months, for example, Olstein and his team picked up Home Depot (NYSE:HD - News) and McDonald's (NYSE:MCD - News), arguing these battered blue chips can fix their operational problems and reward cash-flow-hungry investors. They've also found opportunities in select technology stocks lately. Fairchild Semiconductor (NYSE:FCS - News) and International Rectifier (NYSE:IRF - News) have been among their favorites because they expect the companies to profit from increased demand for power chips. The managers also picked up Tyco (NYSE:TYC - News) in December, believing the company's new management and new auditors have it headed down a prudent path. They scooped up shares of the industrial conglomerate at around $15 and peg their worth in the low $20s.

This article is intended to feature the viewpoints of individual fund managers. The opinions expressed are not necessarily those of Morningstar, and investors should not consider the stocks mentioned above as recommendations from Morningstar analysts.

Christopher Davis is an analyst with Morningstar.com. While he welcomes your email, he cannot answer financial planning questions. He can be reached at christopher.davis@morningstar.com.

OPEC to discuss Iraq oil risks with rivals

www.forbes.com Reuters, 03.04.03, 10:10 AM ET

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - OPEC oil ministers plan to discuss output flexibility with six rival exporting nations next week as part of contingency planning in the event of a halt in Iraqi supply, an OPEC official said on Tuesday. Oil prices hit 12-year highs last week near $40 per barrel on fears that any U.S.-led attack on Iraq will disrupt supplies from the Gulf, which supplies about 40 percent of world crude exports. The 11-member Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has recently lifted output to cover for a crippling three-month strike in Venezuela, would struggle to compensate for a total loss of Iraqi exports. "Just in case OPEC cannot compensate for a shortage in the event of war, these countries could do something," a cartel official said. OPEC ministers will meet representatives from Russia, Norway, Mexico, Oman, Syria and Egypt on the morning of March 11, ahead of a formal OPEC meeting in Vienna later on the same day. Many of these countries have participated in recent output restrictions with OPEC, when oil prices were half current levels. The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, estimated last month that the world had 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of spare oil output capacity, mostly in Saudi Arabia, versus latest Iraqi output of 2.5 million. Venezuela is pumping about one million bpd, a third of normal levels, three months after an opposition strike began. Adding to the supply woes, Kuwait said it would have to slash output by up to a third during any war in neighbouring Iraq. Most non-OPEC exporters already pump at full capacity, although Mexico said last month it could increase by 100,000 barrels per day in the event of war. Other countries could increase supply for a short period, known as surge production. If OPEC has insufficient spare output capacity, consumer countries represented by the Paris-based IEA have said they will release crude from their huge emergency strategic reserves for the first time since the 1991 Gulf War. Nascent oil exporters Kazakhstan and Angola, which failed to fulfil previous agreements to curb exports when oil prices fell, have not been invited to the OPEC meeting, the OPEC official said.

Venezuela's Ambassador Seeking Closer Ties to N.M.

santafenewmexican.com Associated Press 03/04/2003 Bernardo Alvarez Herrera, left, Venezuelan ambassador to the United States, speaks Monday at a news conference at the state Capitol. - Jerome T. Nakagawa | The New Mexican enezuela's ambassador to the United States is visiting New Mexico, a trip aimed at creating new economic and cultural ties. Bernardo Alvarez Herrera heads a delegation that met Monday with lawmakers and Gov. Bill Richardson. Meetings are planned later this week with representatives of the oil and gas industry, Los Alamos National Laboratory and the University of New Mexico. The delegation also plans to visit museums and the National Hispanic Cultural Center in Albuquerque. Alvarez said he would talk about issues ranging from possible joint ventures between private-sector energy companies in Venezuela and New Mexico to a swap of art between the state and his country. Heavily Hispanic New Mexico, which has some cultural commonalities with Venezuela, is a natural starting point for strengthening ties with the United States that go beyond its energy relationship, the ambassador told the state Senate. "We would like to build a very friendly and stable relationship between our two nations," Alvarez said. He also reiterated that his nation's oil production is recovering since coming to a virtual standstill in February because of political turmoil and strikes. "Venezuela is coming back to full production," he said. Venezuelan officials said last week in Washington, D.C., that the country was exporting about 1.5 million barrels a day, about half its average daily export last year. Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest oil producer and a major source of oil for the United States, accounting for about 14 percent of U.S. oil imports last year. Venezuela's Ambassador Seeking Closer Ties to N.M. Associated Press 03/04/2003 Bernardo Alvarez Herrera, left, Venezuelan ambassador to the United States, speaks Monday at a news conference at the state Capitol. - Jerome T. Nakagawa | The New Mexican enezuela's ambassador to the United States is visiting New Mexico, a trip aimed at creating new economic and cultural ties. Bernardo Alvarez Herrera heads a delegation that met Monday with lawmakers and Gov. Bill Richardson. Meetings are planned later this week with representatives of the oil and gas industry, Los Alamos National Laboratory and the University of New Mexico. The delegation also plans to visit museums and the National Hispanic Cultural Center in Albuquerque. Alvarez said he would talk about issues ranging from possible joint ventures between private-sector energy companies in Venezuela and New Mexico to a swap of art between the state and his country. Heavily Hispanic New Mexico, which has some cultural commonalities with Venezuela, is a natural starting point for strengthening ties with the United States that go beyond its energy relationship, the ambassador told the state Senate. "We would like to build a very friendly and stable relationship between our two nations," Alvarez said. He also reiterated that his nation's oil production is recovering since coming to a virtual standstill in February because of political turmoil and strikes. "Venezuela is coming back to full production," he said. Venezuelan officials said last week in Washington, D.C., that the country was exporting about 1.5 million barrels a day, about half its average daily export last year. Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest oil producer and a major source of oil for the United States, accounting for about 14 percent of U.S. oil imports last year.

TEXT-S&P assigns General Maritime ratings

reuters.com Tue March 4, 2003 10:14 AM ET (The following statement was released by the ratings agency)

NEW YORK, March 4 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it assigned its 'BB' corporate credit rating to General Maritime Corp GMR.N . At the same time, Standard & Poor's assigned its 'B+' senior unsecured debt rating to the company's proposed 10-year $250 million note offering. The long-term rating outlook is stable. New York, N.Y.-based General Maritime is engaged primarily in the ocean transportation of crude oil and petroleum products. The company owns and operates a fleet of 28 oceangoing vessels (23 Aframax tankers and 5 Suezmax vessels).

"Ratings on General Maritime reflect the company's favorable business position as a large operator of midsize Aframax and larger Suezmax petroleum tankers with a strong market share in the Atlantic Basin, diversified customer base of oil companies and governmental agencies, and fairly good access to liquidity," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Kenneth L. Farer. "These factors are offset by significant, but managed, exposure to the competitive and volatile tanker spot markets and an aggressive growth strategy," the analyst continued.

In January 2003, the company announced it would acquire the 19 vessels owned and operated by Metrostar Management Corp. for $525 million, increasing General Maritime's fleet to 47 vessels (28 Aframax tankers and 19 Suezmax vessels) with capacity equal to about 6% of the world Aframax and Suezmax fleets. The transaction is expected to conclude by April 30, 2003. This acquisition expands General Maritime's scope of operations to Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea, in addition to increasing the total fleet cargo carrying capacity, with a small decrease in the combined fleet's average age.

Tanker rates increased dramatically in the fourth quarter of 2002, reversing declines during the second half of 2001 and most of 2002, and have remained high, reflecting a cold winter, war premiums associated with a potential conflict with Iraq, and an extension of transit time to supply North America due to the oil company strike in Venezuela. Although rates may moderate from the current high levels, industry fundamentals over the near to intermediate term are expected to remain favorable. Additional rate increases and long-term charter contracts for quality modern tankers are possible due to environmental concerns after the sinking of the tanker Prestige off the coast of Spain. The global Aframax and Suezmax fleets are expected to increase slightly over the next few years, since the delivery schedule represents a somewhat higher percentage of the existing fleet compared with the capacity of ships over 20 years old that will likely be scrapped.

General Maritime's liquidity available under credit facilities and fairly strong market position should enable the company to maintain a credit profile consistent with the rating. Downside risks are limited by the favorable near to intermediate term industry fundamentals and General Maritime's solid market position. However, dramatic improvements are unlikely due to an aggressive growth strategy in a competitive and cyclical market. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, Standard & Poor's Web-based credit analysis system, at www.ratingsdirect.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www2.standardandpoors.com; under Fixed Income in the left navigation bar, select Credit Ratings Actions.