www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By: Oscar Heck

VHeadline.com commentarist Oscar Heck writes: I have been getting some flack from some irate opposition people recently ... again ... calling me "ignorant and uneducated." Why? Because they think I have some figures mixed up.

I will explain: According to the opposition, the recent Firmazo (Signing) of February 2, 2003, accumulated 4.4 million signatures in several petitions including one asking Chavez to resign.

According to recent opposition sponsored press announcements, TV ads and newspaper editorials, 70-80% of the Venezuelan population want Chavez to resign.

Where do they get these figures?

The only explanation I have seen is the following:

4.4 million signatures of a possible 6 million, represents 73%.

Why 6 million? Because, they base themselves on the voter turnout of 1998, when Chavez won the elections with approximately 56% of the votes (3 million+ votes).

The abstention rate was approximately 50% at the time.

Now, what perplexes me? The firmazo was intensely advertised (and pounded into people's heads) for weeks previous to February 2, 2003.  There was a monumental effort by the opposition to have as many people as possible show up to sign. So, if the turnout for the firmazo was say 80%, which I believe is a little low (i.e., abstention of 20%), then this means that the maximum number of anti-Chavez signatures could have been 5.5 million signatures.

Now, if elections were held ... and the abstention rate is 20% ... this means that 9.6 million people would vote and Chavez would get 4.1 million votes (43% of all votes). Together, all other opposition parties would have a total of 5.5 million votes, that is 57% of all votes. (It seems to me that 57% anti-Chavez votes are a far cry from 70-80%.)

Based on the above figures, for Chavez to lose the elections, one opposition party would have to have at least 4.1 million votes +1, that is 4.1 of 5.5 million anti-Chavez votes, or 75% of these votes.

I suppose, theoretically, this could happen ... but I doubt it, especially since there are 18 political parties represented in the National Assembly, a good portion of them being anti-Chavez.

Another point is that if the turnout for the 'firmazo' was higher that 80 % ... say 90% (which I believe is closer to reality - especially after all the advertising) ... then Chavez would win the elections, no matter how many votes the opposition would get -- the maximum number of combined anti-Chavez votes would be 4.9 million of a total of 10.8 million, or 45%.

The flack I have been receiving is precisely concerning the above discussions.

Does the opposition really believe that if there were elections, there would be 80% anti-Chavez voter turnout and say 50% pro-Chavez voter turnout?

Or that if an election were held, the voter turnout would still remain at 50% ... as it was in 1998? I don't think so!  I believe that voter turnout will be the highest in Venezuelan history. My prediction is that the anti-Chavez and pro-Chavez voter turnout will be about 80%.

The fact that the opposition is claiming that 70-80% of the Venezuelan population wants Chavez out, is based on a false premise that the turnout for the 'firmazo' was 50%!

I don't think so ... considering the amount of advertising and incitement that went on, my estimate is that the turnout for the 'firmazo' was closer to 90%.

Furthermore, if elections were called, Chavez would ask all his supporters to go to the ballot box ... just as the opposition would.

Now, supposing that the opposition's premise (50% turnout) is correct ... then Chavez would win 1.6 million votes.  For Chavez to lose, one anti-Chavez political party would have to win at least 1.6 million votes ... or 26% of the anti-Chavez votes.

According to the Venezuelan National Assembly site the anti-Chavez political party that holds the largest number of seats is Accion Democratica (AD) with 15% of the seats. (Remember that there are a total of 18 political parties represented at the National Assembly).  This would mean that Accion Democratica ... one of the conventional Venezuelan political parties ... would have to increase their votes by approximately 75%!

Considering that the Accion Democratica is still, in the eyes of many Venezuelans, the party that is associated with Carlos Andres Perez and massive proven corruption, it appears to me that an increase of 75% is asking a lot.  I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

Now, I can understand that many opposition people would love their premise to be correct. If it is correct, I must congratulate them for seeing more deeply into the situation than I have been able to do.  However, I find it difficult to believe, especially since 12 weeks of travel across approximately half of Venezuela's territory has not demonstrated to me that the premise is valid.

Another factor:  The opposition claims that many people who voted for Chavez in 1998 signed at the 'firmazo.'  Numbers-wise this bit of information only has bearing on the matter if their premise is correct.

Another interesting fact: The opposition has been inviting all Venezuelans to take to the streets for the last 3 Sundays ... a  religious march for "Venezuela", "for peace", "for democracy". This past weekend they added "against political persecution."

Oscar Heck oscarheck111@hotmail.com

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Andres Bello Catholic University (UCAB) and the Metropolitan University are the only universities that kept their promise to recover classes lost during the two-month national stoppage during the Carnival holiday.

Attendance Monday at UCAB’s Faculties of Education, Media Studies and Engineering was around 100%, while 50% of law students preferred to stay away and enjoy the holiday break.

Private and public secondary schools did not open either.

Venezuelan Teachers Federation president Jaime Manzo failed to live up to his promise to recommend union members to show President Hugo Chavez Frias how determined they were and recover classes during the weekends and holidays. As expected and true to form, teachers opted out of their pledge to turn up for classes during Carnival.

One critic says he is disappointed ... "anti-Chavists failed to gain political and moral capital, while pro-Chavist teachers show they are just as mercenary as their colleagues."

www.forbes.com Reuters, 03.04.03, 1:29 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Chairman Lee Raymond said Tuesday that the Bush administration could release emergency crude reserves in the event of a war with Iraq, depending on the extent of disruption to oil supply. "It's clear if there's going to be a war, then Iraq is going to stop exporting," Raymond told analysts in New York. "The U.S. government could release some oil from the SPR. I wouldn't want to suggest to you that there will be clarity on this at all. There are a lot of what ifs and whens," he added. World crude prices have recently soared to 12-year highs on fears of a U.S. military strike against Iraq, the world's eighth largest oil exporter. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said last week that the United States was prepared to act quickly to release emergency crude oil reserves if needed to offset a severe disruption to Middle East supplies in the event of war. Raymond said that the OPEC oil cartel, which pumps a third of world supply, may be able to raise production enough to cover the supply shortfall. "(It) depends on how long a war is going to be or has Saddam Hussein torched his oil fields. I have no doubt OPEC could deal with that... I believe the Saudis have more capacity," he said. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter has raised production around one million barrels per day (bpd) to nine million bpd since the start of the year as a workers' strike in Venezuela cut into global supply.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

With hunger strikes in La Planta, Los Teques, El Rodeo, Yare prisons and the General Penitentiary, the spotlight has been turned once again on the state of Venezuela’s prisons after a period of "benign neglect."

During a visit to El Paraiso detention center, Interior & Justice (MIJ) Minister General (ret.) Lucas Rincon Romero heard inmates complain about the delay in processing their cases … “the majority of prisoners here have the same problem and some have been here as long as 2,3 and 4 years without being sentenced.”

The Minister has promised to discuss the matter with judges to find out the reason for the delays and attempt some emergency work to deal with outstanding cases.

Answering charges that prisoners aren’t getting adequate food rations, Rincon Romero admits that suppliers haven’t been paid on time and has asked prisoners on hunger strike to be patient.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Comptroller General Clodosbaldo Russian admits that he has ordered an investigation into the role of the top 7 dismissed Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) executives and managers organized in what has been described as the “shadow PDVSA” or "Gente de Petroleo" in Spanish.

Russian claims that the rebels must assume responsibility for the damages they allegedly caused to Venezuela’s prime industry and “patrimony.”

“The PDVSA stoppage was political and aimed at ousting President Chavez Frias and calling elections.”

Urging the seven to turn up at the 50th control court and face the music, Russian says the Comptroller General’s first task is to investigate patrimonial damage caused by not being able to sell oil and sabotage on PDVSA installations.

“Who is responsible for damaging 80 kilometers of pipeline after petrol solidified? Or the money that went into repairing computer equipment, just to mention two examples?”