www.co2science.org Reference Freeland, H.J., Gatien, G., Huyer, A. and Smith, R.L.  2002.  Cold halocline in the northern California Current: An invasion of subarctic water.  Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016663

What was done The authors analyzed water temperature and salinity measurements that were made at a number of depths over a period of several years along two lines emanating from central Oregon and Vancouver Island westward into the Pacific Ocean.

What was learned Subsurface waters in an approximate 100-meter-thick layer located between 30 and 150 meters depth off central Oregon were, in the words of the authors, "unexpectedly cool in July 2002."  Specifically, mid-depth temperatures over the outer continental shelf and upper slope were more than 0.5°C colder than the historical summer average calculated by Smith et al. (2001) for the period 1961-2000, which the authors say "might be cooler than a longer-term mean because the 1961-71 decade coincided with a cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Mantua et al., 1997)."  At the most offshore station, in fact, the authors report "the upper halocline is >1°C colder than normal and about 0.5°C colder than any prior observation [our italics]."  In addition to being substantially cooler, the anomalous water was also considerably fresher; and the combined effects of these two phenomena made the water less spicy, as the authors describe it, so much so, in fact, that they refer to the intensity of the "spiciness anomaly" as "remarkable."

Along the line that runs from the mouth of Juan de Fuca Strait to Station Papa at 50°N, 145°W in the Gulf of Alaska -- which was sampled regularly between 1959 and 1981, but irregularly thereafter -- similar low spiciness was observed, and the authors say there is little doubt it is the same feature as that detected off the coast of central Oregon.  In this case, they report that "conditions in June 2002 [were] well outside the bounds of all previous experience [our italics]," and that "in summer 2001 the spiciness of this layer was already at the lower bound of previous experience."

What it means The authors say their data imply that "the waters off Vancouver Island and Oregon in July 2002 were displaced about 500 km south of their normal summer position."  Is this observation an indication the Pacific Ocean is beginning to experience a shift from what Chavez et al. (2003) call a "warm, sardine regime" to a "cool, anchovy regime"?  It is tempting to suggest that it is.  However, Freeland et al. caution against jumping to such a conclusion too quickly, saying there are no obvious signals of such a regime shift in several standard climate indices and that without evidence of a large-scale climate perturbation, the spiciness anomaly may simply be, well, anomalous.  Hence, although the pattern of Pacific Ocean regime shifts documented by Chavez et al. suggests that a change from warmer to cooler conditions is imminent, there is not yet sufficient climatic evidence to claim that it is indeed in process of occurring.

On the other hand, in reference to the 1976-77 regime shift in the Pacific, Chavez et al. note that "it took well over a decade to determine that a regime shift had occurred in the mid-1970s" and, hence, that "a regime or climate shift may even be best determined by monitoring marine organisms rather than climate," as suggested by Hare and Mantua (2000).  Enlarging on this concept, they cite several recent studies that appear to provide such evidence, including "a dramatic increase in ocean chlorophyll off California," which would appear to be a logical response to what the authors of the article we are reviewing describe as "an invasion of nutrient-rich Subarctic waters."

Other pertinent evidence cited by Chavez et al. includes "dramatic increases in baitfish (including northern anchovy) and salmon abundance off Oregon and Washington," as well as "increases in zooplankton abundance and changes in community structure from California to Oregon and British Columbia, with dramatic increases in northern or cooler species [our italics]."

Clearly, something dramatic is in the works; and it could well be a return to cooler conditions in the Pacific.  Biological and climatic studies over the next few years should enlighten us considerably on this point, as well as what such a regime shift would portend for the global warming debate.

References Chavez, F.P., Ryan, J., Lluch-Cota, S.E. and Niquen C., M.  2003.  From anchovies to sardines and back: multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean.  Science 299: 217-221.

Hare, S.R. and Mantua, N.J.  2000.  Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989.  Progress in Oceanography 47: 103-145.

Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M. and Francis, R.C.  1997.  A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 1069-1079.

Smith, R.L., Huyer, A. and Fleischbein, J.  2001.  The coastal ocean off Oregon from 1961 to 2000: Is there evidence of climate change or only of Los Niños?  Progress in Oceanography 49: 63-93.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Opposition Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP) political party leader and former Libertador Mayor Antonio Ledezma has called on President Hugo Chavez Frias to cut out the mystery and publish the names of the persons or groups allegedly behind the bombs that exploded outside the Colombian consulate and Spanish Embassy last week in Caracas.

“If the President knows who placed the bombs, he should present the evidence and reveal their identities … otherwise, the matter will be shelved as other cases.”

Ledezma recalls the discovery of an alleged sniper in Ciudad Bolivar hired to assassinate the President or the group that allegedly had allegedly planned to launch a rocket attack on the Presidential airplane, as it was approaching Simon Bolivar international airport at Maiquetia.

“Those cases were not followed up and we suspect that those who planted the bombs were the same people who have attacked media HQs and that this case will be shelved as well."

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Interior & Justice (MIJ) Minister, General (ret.) Lucas Rincon Romero says the police believe that the Maracaibo car bomb has more to do with an age-old vendetta between the Melean and Semprun families than anything else. 

Zulia State Police Detective Branch (CICPC) director, Idelfonso Urdaneta suggests that the car bomb may have been aimed at Rancher kingpin, Antonio Melean. The two rancher familes are said to be a law unto themselves in Zulia ... both families have suffered death from assassinations.

However, opposition groups continue to claim that it was a government-inspired attack to eliminate Melean, who had been a leading light in the anti-government national stoppage and the new Lands Law. 

The police will interrogate Melean today on the car bomb episode.

Meanwhile in Caracas, there has been growing speculation regarding a CCTV video showing persons, who allegedly planted the bomb in front of the Colombian consulate.

 MIJ Minister Rincon Romero says Venezuelan security forces have not reported knowledge of the video and has asked the Colombians to supply the video, if indeed it exists.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Tuesday, March 04, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

PROVEA human rights group has been reviewing the state of the right to health in Venezuela and paints a dismal picture. Medicine stocks and medicines in hospitals are at an all-time low, tenders to supply, maintain and update medical equipment are at a standstill, salaries payments have been placed on the backburner of several months ... there is a generalized suspension of surgical operations, and organ transplants.

The closure of medical consultations and critical drop in blood bank reserves, especially for HIV cases, have reduced hospital capacity to guarantee services, especially in emergency centers.

PROVEA admits that political and economic causes have had a negative influence but insists that it is up to the Health & Social Development (MSDS) Ministry to adopt appropriate measures to meet the crisis, whether by implementing extreme measures, such as declaring the sector in a state of emergency or intermediate measures to re-establish conditions for normal functioning throughout the entire health assistance system.

The group calls on the State to speed up dollar exchange red tape to purchase medicines and medical supplies, and to send decentralized State Governments money to pay off accumulated debts to health sector suppliers, as well as pending sector wages, salaries and benefits.

PROVEA calls on the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) to issue a ruling on a protection recourse introduced last year by the College of Caracas Medical Doctors asking for the removal of VAT on medical and dentist surgical and hospital services in private clinics.

The Ministry, PROVEA suggests, should convene  a table of dialogue between public sector health services representatives, social sectors and NGOs involved in health care aimed at setting up a consultation process to deal with problems facing the sector.

www.forbes.com Reuters, 03.04.03, 2:59 PM ET By Ibon Villelabeitia

BOGOTA, Colombia, March 4 (Reuters) - Colombia and Ecuador inaugurated a $45 million power line linking the two nations on Tuesday; a move that Bogota-based electricity distributor ISA <ISA.CN> said would pave the way for a common power market across the Andean region. State-controlled ISA, Colombia's largest distributor, and Ecuador's Transelectric, have completed work on a 130 mile (210 km) transmission line with a 260-megawatt capacity across the countries' shared border, ISA President Javier Gutierrez said. "We are taking one step at a time. A year ago we were not in Ecuador and now we are going after Peru. We think it is perfectly possible to become an energy provider in an integrated Andean region market," Gutierrez told a news conference in the Colombian capital Bogota. Last December, energy officials from Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, Venezuela and Peru signed a regionwide regulatory structure for energy connection. With control of more than 80 percent of Colombia's high voltage network, ISA plans to build by September 2004 an $18 million power line hooking up transmission lines of Peru and Ecuador through Red Electrica Peruana, a unit of ISA. ISA, which is eyeing agreements to hook up lines with Venezuela and Bolivia, is also studying a $200 million project to connect Colombia's national grids via a cable crossing the inaccessible jungles of the Darien Gap, Gutierrez said. Speaking to Reuters, Gutierrez said the Andean common electricity market could become a springboard for ISA's future incursions into the energy market of southern South America. "We don't have any expansion plans into the south at the moment. But once we get into Peru we can get into Chile or the Mercosur trade block. We are constantly evaluating market opportunities," Gutierrez said. Mercosur includes Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina. In 2002, ISA posted net profits of 23.92 billion pesos, down 76.4 percent from net profits of 101.1 billion pesos in 2001, as a depreciating peso currency greatly increased the costs of the company's debt, which is largely tied to multilateral banks. ISA sales in 2002 jumped 10.2 percent to 555.58 billion pesos, up from 504.05 billion pesos in 2001. The government has a majority 58-percent stake in ISA, which has 13,000 energy pylons and nearly 5,000 miles (8,000 km) of high-and medium-tension lines in Colombia. ISA's network in Colombia has been badly hit by a sabotage campaign by Marxist rebels fighting in a four-decade guerrilla war. In 2002, rebels blew up 458 energy pylons, of which 258 belonged to ISA, Gutierrez said. ISA, which last year issued 120 million shares on the local stock market to raise $58 million for fresh investments, is mulling a listing on an international stock exchange such as New York or Madrid. ($US 1 = 2,959 pesos) Copyright 2003, Reuters News Service