Adamant: Hardest metal
Sunday, March 2, 2003

A package of news briefs from the Caribbean

pennlive.com?/ The Associated Press 3/1/03 6:58 PM

GUYANA: Police investigating reports that officers fired on carload of students, killing one

GEORGETOWN, Guyana (AP) -- Police said Saturday they were investigating reports that officers had shot at a carload of students, killing one and injuring two others.

The four university students and one high-school student had been driving home Saturday morning from playing basketball in the northern suburbs of the capital, Georgetown, when police began shooting at them with rifles and handguns, witnesses said.

Several police officers at Georgetown Hospital said on condition of anonymity that they had information suggesting the students were armed criminal suspects.

The police department said in a statement that it was investigating the incident, but did not take responsibility for the shootings.

Yohance Douglas, 17, died of gunshot wounds to his torso, while Ronson Gray, 19, and Oneal King, 18, were injured but in stable condition.

The other two students, who were uninjured, were detained by police for questioning, the police said.

UNITED STATES: President Bush appoints State Department professional to Guyana ambassadorship

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President George W. Bush announced Friday that Roland Bullen is his choice to be the next U.S. ambassador to Guyana.

Bullen is deputy executive director of the State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs.

Previously, he served as deputy chief of mission in Bridgetown, Barbados, and served in U.S. embassies in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Belize, Costa Rica and Venezuela.

His new position must be confirmed by the Senate.

JAPAN: Cuban leader Fidel Castro arrives for three-day visit

TOKYO (AP) -- Cuban leader Fidel Castro arrived in Japan Saturday as torrential rains battered the capital and airports across the country attempted to recover from a massive computer failure earlier in the day.

Mounting tensions over moves by North Korea to restart its nuclear program were expected to be the focus of Castro's talks Sunday with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

The United States and its allies, as well as regional powers China and Russia, have been pressuring North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Cuba -- one of the North's few remaining communist allies -- could provide an additional conduit of diplomacy.

A sea of umbrellas met the 76-year-old Cuban leader, who arrived on schedule at Tokyo's Haneda Airport despite the bad weather.

Castro, the world's longest-serving communist leader, is in Japan for a three-day visit -- his first in seven years -- that includes meetings with Koizumi and Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi.

JAMAICA: Fisherman finds missing man drowned

MONTEGO BAY, Jamaica (AP) -- A fisherman harvesting his fish pot found the body of a man who went missing while he and a friend were cutting wood near a river in northern Jamaica, police said Friday.

Dondeen Johnson, 21, disappeared Tuesday, leaving his pants and a pair of slippers behind at a riverbank in a rural district called Rice Piece, police spokeswoman Angella Williams said.

His friend had crossed the Black River to cut wood, leaving Johnson on the other side, Williams said. When the friend returned, Johnson was gone, she said.

"The fisherman found his body floating beside his fish pot" on Thursday night, Williams said.

Police suspect Johnson had gone swimming in the river and drowned. An autopsy was scheduled for this week, Williams said.

UNITED STATES: Migrant boat arrivals in Key West raise security concerns

KEY WEST, Florida (AP) -- Six Cuban migrants landed their homemade boat on guarded U.S. Navy property this week, then wandered this city's downtown streets before authorities caught them, officials said.

After beaching the boat Wednesday, they sprinted past the house of the Navy's top officer in the Keys and scaled a fence, U.S. officials said Friday. Police later found them drinking beer and phoning relatives on a busy street.

Naval authorities were alerted to the boat by an off-duty Navy police officer, said Cmdr. Pete Fyles, executive officer of Key West Naval Air Facility. The officer was fishing on another vessel when he saw the boat head toward Navy property.

Cameron Hintzen, a U.S. Border Patrol spokesman, said the Cubans claimed they had departed from Mariel on Cuba's north coast less than a day before their arrival in Key West.

The migrants' names have not been released. Border Patrol and Navy officials did not return phone messages Saturday seeking further comment.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Congressman charged with illegal migrant trafficking released a second time

SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic (AP) -- Dominican authorities for a second time released a congressman charged with trafficking migrants illegally while working as a consul in Haiti, the head of state prisons said Saturday.

Radhames Ramos Garcia was released from prison Friday night after regaining his congressional immunity with the beginning of a new 90-day legislative session Thursday, said Miguel Mateo Lopez, director of national prisons.

The Attorney General's office was not available for comment.

Garcia was first detained in July on suspicion of smuggling 14 Chinese citizens, one Malaysian and one Singaporean into the Dominican Republic from neighboring Haiti.

He was released in September, when the Supreme Court ruled that, as a member of the House of Representatives, Garcia was immune to prosecution.

Garcia turned himself in on Feb. 16, just minutes before his immunity expired after a special congressional session ended.

GRENADA: Government plans new biotech laboratory

ST. GEORGE'S, Grenada (AP) -- The government is planning a new biotechnology lab to promote Grenada's agricultural self-sufficiency and diversification, the prime minister said Saturday.

The new lab at Maran, in the western parish of St. John, will both produce new plants and offer courses in biotechnology for member countries of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States, Prime Minister Keith Mitchell said.

The lab, which will cost the government Eastern Caribbean $4 million (US$1.5 million), will produce about 4 million small plants a year, of which 500,000 will be sold locally, Mitchell said in a statement.

The plants to be grown include banana, pineapple, orchids, plantain, forest trees, root crops and spices, he said.

"Masters courses in collaboration with the St. George's University and the Florida University will also be available," the prime minister said.

TRINIDAD: Caribbean musician Andre Tanker dies of heart attack

PORT-OF-SPAIN, Trinidad (AP) -- Andre Tanker, a well-known Caribbean musician who scored plays and forged his own brand of world music, has died after suffering a heart attack, his wife said Saturday. He was 61.

Tanker collapsed at his home outside the capital, Port-of-Spain, on Friday night, said Christine Bailey-Tanker. Family members took him to a hospital, where he was pronounced dead.

Music "was his life," his wife said.

"Sometimes he would be in the bed and all of a sudden I would hear his foot shaking because he was working out some kind of rhythm in his head," Bailey-Tanker said. "Then he would write it down in a book and come back to it later."

Tanker is credited with being one of the first musicians to fuse steel drum music with conventional instruments. He drew on influences from celebrated calypso musicians, such as the legendary Lord Kitchener, and expanded upon the style.

Tanker, who was born in Trinidad, played a variety of instruments, including guitar, cuatro, flute and vibraphone. His latest band was named One World Contraband, which three years ago appeared on Black Entertainment Television.

SOCCER: Ban lifted on 19 Trinidad soccer players

PORT-OF-SPAIN, Trinidad (AP) -- Soccer officials have lifted a ban on 19 national players, clearing them to train next week for the team's final round of Gold Cup qualifiers, an official said.

The federation suspended the players in January after they walked out on national team training two days before their match with Finland. A reserve team played the game and lost 2-1.

The 19 players were protesting poor work conditions, which they said included nonpayment of match fees and inadequate training amenities including water and medical kits.

The federation lifted the ban on Friday, after a special committee met with the players and submitted a list of recommendations for improving conditions, according to Richard Gruden, secretary of the federation.

The players would resume training with their clubs on Thursday, and the federation will study the recommendations at its next executive committee meeting March 16, Gruden said.

SOCCER: FIFA to audit financial assistance program to Antigua Football Association

ST. JOHN'S, Antigua (AP) -- FIFA will conduct an independent audit of its 1999-2000 financial assistance program to the Antigua Football Association, officials said.

The audit was requested by Antigua's soccer association after some members accused its president, Ralph Potter, and general secretary, Chet Greene, of not accounting for all program expenditures.

"I have not been involved in any improprieties whatsoever," Potter said Friday. Greene also has said he is innocent of the accusations.

In January, FIFA vice president Jack Warner said he would ask FIFA to suspend funding to several regional associations because he said they were not using the money wisely.

Auditors will contact the Antigua association "directly in the next few days to arrange a date and discuss other details," FIFA general-secretary Urs Linsi said in a Feb. 12 letter.

The 1999-2000 program involved Eastern Caribbean $2.7 million (US$1 million) in funds for technical development and administration.

CRICKET: Barbados straps wayward Trinidad bowling

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (AP) -- Consistent batting down the order put front-runners Barbados in a commanding position over second-placed Trinidad and Tobago in their top-of-the-table fifth-round match of the Carib Beer match Saturday.

Replying to Trinidad's modest first-innings total of 147, Barbados declared at 502 for nine about 1 1/2 hours after tea on the second day at Kensington Oval. Opening batsmen Philo Wallace and Sherwin Campbell completed centuries and shared a record-breaking, double-hundred, first-wicket stand.

Dwayne Bravo was the leading bowler for Trinidad, with five wickets for 95 runs from 16 overs. Marlon Black offered him support with two wickets for 116 runs from 21 overs.

In 19 overs before stumps were drawn, Trinidad reached 47 for one with left-hander Andy Jackson not out on 16 and Dwayne Bravo undefeated on 25. The wicket to fall was Imran Jan, who was adjudged lbw for one to left-arm fast-medium bowler Ian Bradshaw.

CRICKET: Jamaica holds upper hand against Guyana

GEORGETOWN, Guyana (AP) -- Jamaica held the upper hand against Guyana on Saturday in their fifth-round Carib Beer cricket match, with the home team on 70 for two replying to Jamaica's 387 all out.

Resuming on 236 for four, Jamaica experienced a minor low-order collapse, losing four wickets for seven runs just when it looked like it was piling on a huge total.

But Guyana turned to part-time leg spinner Sewnarine Chattergoon, more known for his exploits as an opening batsman, to break the back of the Jamaicans, restricting them to 387 all out. He took four wickets for nine runs from 6.4 overs, rescuing his side on the flat pitch.

He was supported by discarded West Indies Test spinner Mahendra Nagamootoo, who grabbed three for 138 from 58 marathon overs that included 17 maidens.

So far in the match Jamaica had 387 all out and Guyana had 70-2.

CRICKET: Leewards 233 to West Indies 'B's 125

SALEM, Montserrat (AP) -- Play started 30 minutes early Saturday in an effort to make up for lost time on the previous day, with a maximum of 105 overs to be bowled.

The Leeward Islands, continuing from their overnight position of four without loss, quickly raced to 50.

Sylvester Joseph started to accelerate the scoring and was very quickly within sight of his century but was caught by Lorenzo Ingram on the long-off boundary. When Joseph departed the Leeward Islands total was 213.

The rest of the Leewards batsmen provided little resistance as the remaining three wickets fell for 20 runs.

The Windies, having conceded first innings to the Leeward Islands by 42 runs, set out to erase that deficit in four overs and chase the Leewards in the fourth innings.

The Windies ended the days play 83 runs ahead in their second innings.

CRICKET: India 'A' in danger of being asked to follow-on against Windwards

CASTRIES, St. Lucia (AP) -- India "A" was in danger of being asked to follow-on against the Windward Islands at close of play on the second day of their four-day Carib Beer match Saturday.

The Indians, needing 190 to avoid the follow on, were out for 183 just before the close of play after the Windward Islands had taken its overnight first-innings score to 339.

It is now left to be seen whether Windwards skipper Rawl Lewis will ask India to bat again when play resumes Sunday, with the Windwards big first-innings lead of 156.

An inspired bowling change by Lewis may have been chiefly responsible for India's predicament when it occupied the crease. With the score 170 for five, Lewis introduced part time bowler Kenroy Martin into the attack. The medium pacer bowler promptly responded by claiming three quick wickets in three overs to send the Indians crashing to 175 for eight.

World must pull head out of sand or face oil shock

www.sundayherald.com   THE history of oil prices is a volatile one. The cost of a barrel has rarely remained stable for long and cyclical pricing is part of the industry.

So how concerned should we be that the price of a barrel is likely to break through the $40 barrier for the first time since the Gulf War in 1991? That time, the price of a barrel returned to a reasonable level within weeks of Allied forces invading Iraq. The swift defeat of Saddam's forces put paid to fears of a drawn-out conflict and a wider conflagration across the Middle East. This return to normality was also achieved despite the widespread damage done to Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil assets.

Boom and bust is what the oil industry brings to the economic party. Ever since Edwin Drake drilled the world's first oil well in Pennsylvania back in 1859 and set off a period of excessive drilling that produced a quantity which far exceeded the needs of a limited US market, black gold has witnessed its ups and downs.

As America's appetite for oil grew (domestic oil consumption doubled between 1950 and 1970), the decline of its production business became a fact of life by the early 1970s and the country had to accept that the globe's spare production capacity was in the Middle East. The result of this shift was the rise of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which has long sought to control oil prices following the global oil shock of 1973.

The situation last decade when prices were pushed up by a reduction in global oil supplies coupled with growing demand around the world, is ultimately not too disimilar to the one the world finds itself in today.

America's economy has always been partially fuelled by oil, with low prices playing a useful role in keeping inflation, interest rates, and recession, under control. It is also the case that serious spikes in oil prices have historically led to economic downturns. And as US commentators were noting last week, in the past 30 years there has never been a significant move upwards in energy prices that has not been followed by recession.

After Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990, the price of a barrel more than doubled, briefly hitting $41.15 in October. The result? Recession. And after the leap in 2000, when oil went from $25.50 to a high of $36 within 12 months? Recession. One US economist's recent description of spikes in oil prices as a 'tax on growth' is entirely accurate.

The American economy is just about clinging on. Consumers are spending less and domestic growth is static. Such an economy would struggle to shake off a recession in 2003.

Opec's optimistic members may dismiss fears about price rises as 'psychological' but they can't buck history.

That's perhaps why some industry analysts are beginning to argue that the optimists are just sticking their heads in the sand, hoping the troubles will disappear. And certainly Opec's benchmark of $28 is derived from what remains very much the best possible outcome from any Iraqi conflict.

A quick victory, little collateral damage to either Iraq's oil fields and a rapid return to normality for Venezuela. Opec makes it all sounds so easy. But the great danger for the US economy, and the global economy in turn, is that the potential for damage is ignored, or more likely, underestimated. The oil industry prides itself in being able to factor in all the variables and predict the future. But has the world become a little too complex even for the industry's know-all analysts?

Caution, an old virtue of Scottish business, is needed now. In 2003 no one, unfortunately, has all the answers.

Green words must be matched by investment Last week Tony Blair came up with some noble aspirations about the environment notably that Britain should cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 60% from current levels by 2050. The prime minister did this in an impassioned speech and later in his energy white paper. Unnecessary pollution was fingered as an evil to be rooted out along similar lines to Saddam Hussein.

The paper, already derided by energy insiders as being little more than a 'wish list', was stuffed full of worthy aspirations but gave precious little detail as to how the ambitious targets might be met.

Instead the paper relied on vague promises like improved energy efficiency and use of more renewable sources. But, after what has been described as a bout of cabinet in-fighting, the paper took no steps to keep the nuclear industry alive. That seems perverse as nuclear power is the one proven, large-scale green power source that we have. So why was it condemned to a slow death, taking 25% of carbon-free power capacity to the grave with it?

Conspiracy theorists suspect a plot. They believe Blair's hidden agenda is to prove to the UK population that green energy will ultimately be just too intermittent and unreliable to keep the UK powered-up 24/7, which will enable energy minister Brian Wilson's beloved nuclear to be rebooted, with replacement reactors sanctioned.

There is little doubt that Britons and UK business can be much more efficient in their use of energy, and energy saving is a valid cause to pursue, but in the end it is tinkering around the edges.

At the moment a mere 3% of UK power is generated by renewables, including large-scale hydro projects, and energy insiders believe the targets of 10% by 2010 and 20% by 2020 will prove hard to achieve unless every available stretch of moorland in the UK is to be covered in wind turbines.

Insiders also complain that the paper provided no framework for investment and is therefore unlikely to fuel the use of untried technologies of wave and tidal power.

Jeremy Leggett, chief executive of Solar Century, one of the potential giants in the emerging renewables sector, said after the speech that the £60m pledged to his industry was just one-tenth of the money Blair's government gave to British Energy last autumn to bail out the shareholders of the ailing nuclear industry. It's going to need much much more if it is ever to generate what Blair is hoping it might.

Anti-drug fight part of terror war: US

www.dailytimes.com.pk

WASHINGTON: The fight against illegal drug trafficking is part of US efforts to defeat terrorism, the State Department said. “The US campaign against global terrorism in 2002 highlighted the importance of our international drug control programs,” the department said in its annual International Narcotics Control Strategy report released Saturday. “Whether through the heroin that financed Taliban or the cocaine that sustains Colombia, the drugs generate the money for violence,” it stressed. The report restated a list of 23 countries released in January which Washington considers producers or major transit points: Afghanistan, the Bahamas, Bolivia, Brazil, Burma, China, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, India, Jamaica, Laos, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Thailand, Venezuela and Vietnam. —AFP

Contingency plan in place for import of crude: Ram Naik

www.deepikaglobal.com Nagapattinam, Tamil Nadu, Mar 1 (UNI) Union Petroleum Minister Ram Naik today said the country had enough crude stocks for two months, allaying any fear of shortage of petroleum products in the event of a war between the United States and Iraq. Talking to newspersons after inaugurating a Crude Oil Jetty of the Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL)-Cauvery Basin Reserve (CBR) here, he said the Petroleum Ministry, to meet any exigency situations, had chalked out a contingency plan for importing crude oil from countries that do not come under the war zone. Mr Naik, however, declined to divulge the name of the countries from which crude would be imported. ''You can rest be assured that the Petroleum Ministry has made enough arrangements for importing crude from other countries in the event of a break out of a war, which India is not favouring,'' he said and added that the strategic stock piling by India when a war against Pakistan appeared imminent last year, had worked out to its advantage now. Justifying the hike in the prices of petroleum products announced in the Union Budget yesterday, he said the crude prices in the highly volatile International market shot up to 37 US dollars per barrel yesterday (an all time high in 12 years) from about 19 to 20 dollars per barrel last year in the wake of the War threat looming large. The strike in Venezuela, one of the major oil exporting countries, had contributed to this. Under these circumstances the government had no other alternative but to increase the prices of petrol and diesel or else it had to stop import of crude oil, which he said would hamper economic activity in the country. The government had worked out some sort of cushion arrangement under which the entire burden was not passed on to the consumers.

Jump in Oil Prices Puts New Strains on Shaky Economy

story.news.yahoo.com 2 hours, 58 minutes ago Add Top Stories - The New York Times to My Yahoo! By DAVID LEONHARDT The New York Times

The most common cause of recessions, a surge in oil prices, is again afflicting the global economy.

Just as they have before every American downturn over the last 40 years, energy costs have risen significantly in the last year, capped by a sharp spike since December. With more money being spent on gasoline and heating fuel, economic growth has slowed in both the United States and Europe, and the uneven recovery that began in late 2001 is facing perhaps its biggest threat yet.

Most forecasters expect the United States economy to avoid a new recession this year, saying that only an unexpectedly protracted war in Iraq (news - web sites) would keep oil at its current price or higher. But any war is an unknown, and the price increases for both oil and natural gas have already caused consumers to cut back on other spending. The increases have also created a new problem for businesses trying to emerge from the hangover of the late-1990's boom.

"The economy is extremely fragile," said Mark M. Zandi, the chief economist at Economy.com, a research company in West Chester, Pa. "We've got some real problems if this drags on for any length of time."

Energy costs began rising more than a year ago, when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production in response to the weak global economy. The potential war in the Persian Gulf, political chaos in Venezuela and a cold winter in the United States caused the price of a barrel of oil to soar to almost $40 on Thursday, the highest since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, before it retreated to $36.60 on Friday in New York. That is about 69 percent higher than it was a year ago.

Every time that oil prices have risen by at least 60 percent since World War II, a recession has occurred in the United States, with the exception of a one-month blip in oil prices in 1987. The current annual increase is similar in size to the jumps of late 1990, when a recession was starting, and the summer of 2000, nine months before another began.

Higher energy costs reduce economic growth by effectively forcing families and businesses to send more money to a small number of oil-producing countries, leaving less to be spent on goods and services that create jobs at home.

Energy prices affect Europe and Japan even more severely than the United States, which produces more of its own oil and natural gas. Britain reported last week that its economy had grown at the most sluggish pace in 10 years during the last three months of 2002. The German economy shrank at the end of last year for the first time in a year.

"The single best cyclical indicator for the world economy is the price of oil," said Andrew J. Oswald, an economist at the University of Warwick outside Coventry, England. "Nothing moves in the world economy without oil in there somewhere."

In recent weeks, a number of big American manufacturers have blamed higher energy costs for cuts in their earnings forecasts. A few have cited oil prices while postponing new investments that could add jobs, even as an overall rise in business spending has suggested that the economy might be picking up speed were it not for energy.

For example, DuPont, the large chemical maker, recently delayed until June an expansion of its business that had been scheduled to start in February, according to Ann K. M. Gualtieri, a spokeswoman.

In Elkhorn, Wis., Hudapack Metal Treating, which employs 125 people, is investing in technology to make its furnaces less dependent on natural gas which costs more than twice what it did a year ago rather than spending to increase its production of bolts for pickup trucks.

"It's real bad," said Gary Huss, the president of Hudapack, which is merely breaking even. "You can't take an extra $20,000 a month, throw it at gas prices and expect to be profitable."

The ailing airline industry is also being hit hard. American Airlines will probably spend about $200 million more on fuel this quarter than it did a year ago. Standard & Poor's lowered the company's credit rating on Friday, saying fuel costs were one reason that American might have to file soon for bankruptcy protection.

Many companies buy advance fuel contracts, a practice known as hedging, to protect them from some of the short-term price increases. United Parcel Service has purchased gasoline hedges, but it will still increase the fuel surcharge on its deliveries to 1.5 percent tomorrow, from 1.25 percent, because of increased costs.

Rising oil prices appear to be helping keep layoffs at a pace that few analysts expected, according to government figures, delaying any major improvement in the nation's moribund job market. The economy employs almost two million fewer people than it did two years ago.

Consumers, paying almost 50 percent more for gasoline than a year ago, in turn are reducing their spending on other goods. Over all, purchases at American retail chain stores fell 1.1 percent in January, according to the Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi, which adjusts its numbers for seasonal variations.

 

At 7-Eleven, people are buying smaller cups of coffee than they did in January and more individual sodas in place of 12-packs, said James W. Keyes, the chief executive. Consumers are also buying less premium gasoline.

"We see the change immediately," Mr. Keyes said. "A 20- to 30-cent-a- gallon shift at the pump can take as much as $50 from the working person each month."

Sales of sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks have fallen recently, while car sales are still rising. The largest trucks, like the Chevrolet Tahoe and Lexus LX 450, are selling particularly poorly compared with a year ago, according to Morgan & Company, a research firm. Analysts are divided over whether fuel prices are a reason, noting that some carmakers have recently reduced discounts and sales incentives for many trucks.

With gasoline prices and heating costs up sharply during a cold winter, families are spending about 5 percent of their budgets on energy, up from 4.1 percent at the start of last year, according to Economy .com.

About one-third of Americans say the recent spike has caused them "financial hardship," according to a recent Gallup poll. More than one- quarter said they thought that gas prices would be near their current level six months from now, and about one half said they would rise.

"I think it's going to get much worse," said Teri Chavez, a public relations executive in Denver, as she filled the tank of her blue Volvo station wagon last week. "Does it mean that I'm going to stop driving? No. But I might think twice before I take my car up in the mountains."

Ms. Chavez said she had "a silly rule" that she would not spend more than $20 on gas at one time and she was getting much less gas than she used to.

In 1991, oil prices fell almost as soon as the United States attacked Iraq, and many economists think the same could happen this year. Even if a war temporarily reduced the supply of energy, President Bush (news - web sites) could release oil from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to bring down prices, analysts note.

But because oil inventories are lower than they were 12 years ago, a price decline could be smaller today than at the outset of the Persian Gulf war (news - web sites).

Based on the price of oil futures contracts, investors are expecting oil prices to remain around $38 a barrel through April and then gradually decline, falling below $30 by the end of the year.

At those levels, oil prices would still probably prevent the economy from growing rapidly this year. But they would also make a new recession unlikely, particularly because business executives have recently shown signs of optimism, increasing their investments in new technology and equipment after almost three years of cuts.

"It's definitely a negative," said William C. Dudley, the chief United States economist at Goldman, Sachs, referring to the cost of energy. "It's just not at the point where we think it's recessionary. But it's fair to say people have generally underestimated the impact of oil-price spikes."