www.vheadline.com Posted: Friday, February 28, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Caracas Police (Policaracas) operations chief, Antonio Pujol says his officers have arrested 30 alleged juvenile troublemakers charged with vandalizing 6 Caracas educational institutions.

“We captured them in the surrounds of Fermin Toro and Rafael Vega colleges, Technical College del Oeste, Caracas Teacher Training College (Pedagogico), Aplicacion and Miguel Antonio Caro high schools.”

Pujol claims that former urban guerrilla group Bandera Roja (BR) has infiltrated militants to exploit discontent in high schools and to attack other student groups and schools that are pro-government.

Other schools, such as Gustavo Herrera (Chacao) and Fray Pedro de Agreda (El Valle), complain that vandalism is a continuing problem caused by political groups.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Friday, February 28, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Rear Admiral Wolfgang Larrazabal Ugueto (91) has died of a heart attack.  He was an important figure in the transition between the dictatorship of General Marcos Perez Jimenez and the democratic era and was leader of the Junta between January 23 and November 14, 1958.

The Rear Admiral was born in Carupano (Sucre), studied in Maracaibo, entering the Naval School (1928-1932) ... commanding  several Navy ships until he was appointed commander of the Puerto Cabello Navy base.

• In 1947, Larrazabal became Navy Supreme Commander and Military Attache at the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington in 1979.

Commentators say it was the Admiral’s unpretentious style that made the transition to democracy smooth, despite several coup attempts against the Accion Democratica (AD) government.

El Universal was the first mainstream broadsheet to announce the Rear Admiral's death. It will be interesting to see government and opposition "body language" during the wake and funeral. 

www.vheadline.com Posted: Friday, February 28, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

The Armed Force (FAN)  has staged a military parade in Los Proceres (Caracas) to mark the four anniversary of President Hugo Chavez Frias’ pet project, Bolivar 2000.

Small Italian tractors led the parade, dump trucks, railroad installing machines, road-making machines, while Army Engineer Corps and Navy (Armada) Engineer Brigade vehicles completed the march past.

The Military High Command and Cabinet Ministers joined the President on the podium and news agencies reported the presence of 300 civilians came at the parade.

• Chavez Frias recalled the reason for founding Bolivar 2000 to counter a social emergency and to get the Armed Force actively involved in national development.

“It’s the most important humanitarian operation in Venezuela’s history and villages that have benefited should speak out about the Plan.”

The plan, the President told assembled soldiers, is the fruit of February 27, 1898 (27F) known as the “Caracazo” when he says the Armed Force (FAN) was used to repress the people.

Referring to the remark his detractors have harping upon since April 11, Chavez Frias repeated Simon Bolivar's famous quotation, “Damn the soldier who fires on his own people!”

"The FAN was cursed on that day … it was Bolivar’s curse.”

The opposition and rebel soldiers, the President insists, have used the phrase to defend their bastard anti-Republican interests.

Defense Minister Jose Luis Prieto says 6 million people have benefited from Bolivar 2000 health program and the next projects will be to asphalt Avenida Baralt in Caracas and open a tourist complex in Puerto Cruz.

www.pal-item.com Friday, February 28, 2003 By Don Fasnacht Staff writer

Farmers have to predict the future based on the unpredictable -- the weather, the price of oil and natural gas, the size of the soybean crop in South America.

Throw in the possibility of war, and predictions become all but impossible.

But Purdue University economist Chris Hurt does the best he can to see the agriculture markets for the year ahead. He was here Thursday to give his forecast to local farmers at a Wayne County Soil and Water Conservation District workshop.

"All markets are 'anticipatory markets,'" Hurt said. "Right now, the markets are anticipating bad things."

The major bad thing is war with Iraq. The anticipation is the problem, Hurt said.

"Once the decision is made to invade, we'll know a lot more within about 36 hours," Hurt said.

"There will be a lot of human tragedy, but the markets will stabilize," Hurt said.

War won't affect the weather, but it may have a profound impact on petroleum and gas prices.

Hurt pointed out that the day before the 1991 Gulf War began, crude oil was selling for $30 per barrel. The day after that invasion, it dropped to $20 per barrel. The price of unleaded gasoline dropped 27 cents per gallon in 12 hours, Hurt said.

Currently, the volatility of natural gas is the ringer in predicting corn profits for the coming season. An increase in natural gas prices last weekend increased the price of anhydrous ammonia as much as $150 a ton this week, effectively doubling the price. Anhydrous ammonia and other fertilizers are produced with natural gas.

Crude oil prices, directly affected by war and peace in the Middle East and labor conditions in Venezuela, have been inching up in recent weeks and months. They will affect the cost of gasoline and fuel for planting and harvesting.

Making predictions about war and petrochemicals is simple compared to predicting the weather for the next six or eight months.

"The western Corn Belt (which includes Iowa) has fallen under low levels of drought," Hurt said.

Reduced crops there would drive corn prices up, which would be good for Indiana farmers. But Indiana had the drought last year.

In 2002, a wet spring delayed planting and a bone-dry summer and fall stunted the seed that got into the ground. Hurt said fields in east central Indiana were expected to yield 144 bushels per acres. They averaged 95 bushels per acre.

But good crops in the west kept per-bushel prices down. "The western corn belt was in good shape last year. It saved the national market," Hurt said.

"We don't have a huge inventory coming into this year," Hurt said. "Weather problems (in the west) could force prices up."

Hurt said a million acres in Indiana, Ohio and Illinois that didn't get planted in corn last year will probably be planted this year.

The Corn Belt centered on Indiana should have a good crop. Ground moisture is back to normal. Long-range forecasts call for a dry spring, meaning early planting. If the summer is arid, there should be enough corn that Hurt said $2 per bushel prices for corn are possible at harvest.

The concern for soybean farmers isn't Iowa weather; it's South American weather.

Hurt said summer in the Southern Hemisphere has been "perfect" this year and the South American soybean crop should be 15 percent greater than last year.

"The world is shifting over to South America for soybeans," Hurt said. "The market is at the tipping point."

"We're in a period of great uncertainty," Hurt said.

www.washingtonpost.com By Warren Brown Washington Post Staff Writer Friday, February 28, 2003; 12:54 PM

The threat of war in the Middle East is boosting gasoline prices in the United States. So is political instability in oil-producing Venezuela.

An unusually harsh winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast isn't helping. Some analysts in the oil and auto industries say pump prices could rise as high as $2.50 a gallon for self-serve regular unleaded gasoline.

Nationally, today's average pump price for self-serve regular unleaded is $1.67 a gallon, a few fractions of a cent higher than it was Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association's "Daily Fuel Gauge Report."

But $1.67 is 54 cents higher than the per gallon average a year ago, the AAA says. District of Columbia consumers are paying an average $1.75 for regular unleaded gasoline, compared with an average pump price of $1.15 a gallon a year ago.

Prices are lower in Maryland and Virginia. But consumers in those places still are paying more money for a gallon of gasoline today than they did last year. For example, Maryland residents in the Washington metropolitan area are spending an average $1.70 per gallon of self-serve regular unleaded, compared with $1.15 a year ago.

Virginians are having a better time. For example, consumers in Richmond are paying an average $1.58 a gallon for self-serve regular unleaded, compared with $1.04 a gallon last year.

Media reports indicate that car shoppers are edgy over the gasoline price increases. That suggests that the nation's car manufacturers might be biting their nails, too.

They're not.

That doesn't mean the car companies are sanguine. All of them literally have war plans. But none of them seems close to pushing the panic button.

"The issue isn't how high gasoline prices go. It's how long they stay high," said Michael Morrissey, public policy spokesman for General Motors Corp.

"Consumers have gotten used to cyclical changes in gasoline prices. A family of four is not likely to go out today and buy a subcompact car just because gasoline prices are high," Morrissey said. "Most consumers don't buy cars on a whim. They make it a part of long-term family financial planning. That planning is affected by high gasoline prices only if those prices stay high," he said.

Auto manufacturers don't act on a whim, either, said George Pippas, chief sales and marketing forecaster for Ford Motor Co.

"Product planning is done many years in advance of demographic changes or other [factors], such as fluctuations in gasoline prices," said Pippas. A case in point, he said, are the new gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles that use fuel more economically than conventional cars.

Ford in mid-2004 will introduce a gasoline-electric version of its compact Ford Escape SUV. The 2003, four-wheel-drive version of that model, equipped with an automatic transmission, averages 23 miles per gallon in highway driving. The Escape Hybrid will get up to 40 miles per gallon, according to Ford officials.

"But we didn't start working on the Escape Hybrid because of the current spike in gasoline prices. We began developing that one three or so years ago," Pippas said.

"You can't just respond to a crisis. You have to be committed to providing more fuel-efficient vehicles because you believe that those are what the market will be demanding over the next decade or two," Pippas said.

At the moment, the U.S. market is awfully confusing. There is much ranting and raving against sport-utility vehicles. Yet, SUVs and other light trucks constitute 50.6 percent of current new-vehicle sales while car companies are having a hard time giving away cars that are more fuel efficient.

Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. are beating their breasts in self-praise because they were the first to market gas-electric hybrids-the Civic Hybrid and two-seat Insight for Honda and the Prius sedan for Toyota. Yet, both of those self-avowed environmentally friendly companies are raking in the cash by selling SUVs such as the full-size Toyota Sequoia, the Honda Pilot and the Acura MDX.

And look at GM. It grabbed lots of attention in January at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit by announcing that it will offer gas-electric hybrids across most of its vehicle lines between now and 2007. Yet, it also shocked environmental senses by bringing forth a conceptual super car-the 16-cylinder, 1,000-horsepower Cadillac 16.

Now, GM officials are suggesting that the Cadillac 16 was just an idea that will remain an idea. But they still are preparing a phalanx of new pickup trucks and SUVs to do battle with the Japan-based companies that are introducing new full-size pickup trucks and truck-based SUVs, such as the proposed Toyota Harrier SUV and the ready-for-market Nissan Titan pickup truck.

"The years in which truck sales far outpace demand for cars eventually will come to an end," said Pippas. "But I don't think that's going to happen over the next 10 years, and it certainly is not likely to happen because of current increases in gasoline prices," he said.

It will happen because baby boomers, currently the biggest buyers of SUVs, are getting older, Pippas said.

"Think about it," he said. "Can you see yourself climbing up into an SUV or pickup truck at 65? I can't. I want to get into something lower to the ground. So do a lot of people. That's why car-based SUVs are all the rage," he said.