<a href=www.ipsnews.net>Inter Press Service News Agency Humberto Márquez

The Venezuelan government and the political opposition signed an agreement Thursday aimed at overcoming the country's political crisis through a popular vote on whether or not the president and other elected authorities should finish out their terms.

CARACAS, May 29 (IPS) - The Venezuelan government and the political opposition signed an agreement Thursday aimed at overcoming the country's political crisis through a popular vote on whether or not the president and other elected authorities should finish out their terms.

If certain obstacles are surmounted, the referendum on populist President Hugo Chávez's mandate could be held before the end of the year.

The electoral agreement put an end to the talks facilitated since November 2002 by Organisation of American States (OAS) Secretary-General César Gaviria with the backing of the Carter Centre of former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and a group of friendly nations.

That group, made up of Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the United States, issued a statement that underlined ''the importance of the accord for strengthening a climate of peace and understanding'' in Venezuela.

''We are satisfied,'' said Gaviria, a former Colombian president, after the signing of the 19-point pact. ''The agreement amounts to the kind of solution that we have been seeking: peaceful, democratic, constitutional and electoral, in accordance with OAS Resolution 833.''

Six representatives of the governing coalition and six delegates of the Democratic Coordinator opposition alliance took part in the ceremony.

But analyst Alberto Garrido, who is opposed to Chávez, told IPS that ''there is an accumulation of economic, social and political conflicts in the country that are heading towards a...crisis, and the sides disputing power are unlikely to resolve, through a referendum, the kind of system in which they want to live.''

After the document was signed, Chávez delivered a nationally broadcast speech in which he stated that he was ''happy, given the sense of optimism. I reiterate our utmost willingness to work day after day to ensure that the agreement is not in vain. Tolerance has triumphed.''

The opposition representatives signed the agreement reluctantly, because the document did little more than restate provisions of the 1999 constitution, and failed to set a date for the referendum on the president's mandate, which was left up to the electoral authority, the National Electoral Council (CNE).

The constitution -- which was promoted by Chávez and approved in a popular vote -- stipulates that a recall referendum can be held halfway through any elected official's term.

One major obstacle for holding a vote on Chávez's mandate is the fact that the five-member CNE has not even been appointed yet, because agreement must be reached by at least 110 of the 165 members of the legislature.

Parliament, made up of 86 ruling coalition and 79 opposition lawmakers, has failed to agree on which side will hold a majority -- three out of five -- of the seats in the CNE. The decision may be left in the hands of the Supreme Court.

The OAS, the group of friendly nations, and Nobel Peace Prize- winner Carter -- who sent a message that was read at Thursday's ceremony -- urged the country to promptly appoint the members of the CNE.

According to Gaviria, ''The main achievement of the agreement is the 12th point, which invokes article 72 of the constitution.''

Article 72 states that the mandate of elected officials can be revoked halfway through their term -- Aug. 19 marks the halfway- point of Chávez's six-year presidency -- by means of a referendum requested by at least 20 percent of all registered voters and convoked by the CNE.

''The accord does not satisfy all of the opposition's aspirations, but it is a step forward towards the objective of an electoral, peaceful and democratic solution to Venezuela's crisis of governability,'' Social Democrat Timoteo Zambrano, the Democratic Coordinator's top representative at the negotiating table, remarked to IPS.

If the members of the CNE are designated swiftly, referendums on the mandate of the president or other elected officials could be held by year-end, said Gaviria.

Leaders of several opposition parties and business groups complained that the agreement would allow the ruling coalition to make sure votes on municipal and regional officials were held prior to a referendum on cutting the president's term short.

''The government is going to muddle and delay the process,'' said Carlos Fernández, the head of Fedecámaras, the country's most influential business association, which is staunchly opposed to the government.

Governors Eduardo Lapi and Henrique Salas, who are also anti- Chávez, said they backed the agreement ''only to avoid destroying the unity of the opposition movement.''

Edgar Paredes, the head of Gente del Petróleo -- the union of managers of the state-owned oil company PDVSA that helped lead a failed two-month business and labour shutdown against Chávez in December and January -- said he was opposed to the accord ''because it puts an end to the talks before solutions to other problems have been negotiated, like the dismissal of 18,000 oil company workers.''

Gaviria underlined that ''the accord does not resolve the country's problems, does not totally satisfy the points of view of the parties to the talks, and depends on the good faith of both sides. But that's what political agreements are like: they pave the way for settling differences.''

''Fortunately, sensibleness prevailed in the Democratic Coordinator,'' said analyst Teodoro Petkoff, director of the daily newspaper Tal Cual. ''Those who tried to sow chaos and have not stopped hoping for a military coup d'etat don't want an agreement; they want Chávez to resign.''

In Garrido's view, ''The Coordinator signed the agreement from a position of weakness. A year ago, it had rivers of people in the streets, the managers of the oil company, and dissident military officers. Now it has none of that,'' he said, referring to the waning of the enormous opposition protests demanding that Chávez step down, which were countered by huge pro-government demonstrations in this divided nation.

But ''the situation is not predictable,'' he added, alluding to the armed forces, for example, most of which remained loyal to Chávez in April 2002, when the president was briefly removed from office by a coup staged by the opposition movement and dissident military officers.

The analyst also mentioned ''the appalling economic crisis (Gross Domestic Product fell 29 percent in the first quarter of 2003), sky-high unemployment (19.7 percent), and unrest in the countryside.''

The crisis ''could lead to outcomes before a referendum is held,'' Garrido warned. ''A revolutionary scheme like Chávez's (social revolution) is unlikely to stake its survival on a single popular vote.'' (END)

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic news Posted: Thursday, May 29, 2003 By: David Sheegog

Date: Wed, 28 May 2003 21:41:24 -0500 From: David Sheegog davidsheegog@hotmail.com To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: Re: Chavez Frias deserves credit for initiatives

Dear Editor: Chavez has instigated enough reforms in land and home ownership to make a positive economic impact on the country. The program should continue. Those new "owners" are exactly what capitalism needs to create wealth. It was done at no real expense to anyone, and, once the dispossessed are enfranchised their economic behavior changes. Much as the difference between home-renters and home-owners in caring for and holding on to what they have ... there is no substitute for the pride of ownership in a capitalist system. The country will look better too.

I admit the farm cooperatives are a long shot to work. But the spirit of them is to enfranchise and empower people who are outside the economy at present. Getting people into the market is half the problem in countries such as Venezuela.

The black market ... a squatter's market, if you will ... contributes less than half its wealth generating power to a nation's productivity. Legitimate markets come into being from inclusive economic activity. Local food markets that the government sponsors are healthy inputs to productivity as well, for only slightly different reasons. Creating jobs to sanitize and improve living conditions in the barrios is an easy decision that also has disproportionately more positive economic impact than it's cost.

• The union reforms which he (Chavez) is attempting now, have the potential to increase the share of the nation's productivity of the lower middle class and the working poor.

The unions have not always served the workers who belong to them. That, unfortunately, is true of some unions in every country in the world. More transparency in union activity has been helpful for every union that has achieved it. The great middle class of the US was built largely on the strength of union activity from the 1920s to the 1970s, plus the gigantic wealth redistribution policies of the federal government between 1935 and 1960.

And of course, these and others reforms are important for Chavez to strengthen his political base as well. If he is to be successful in wresting control of Venezuela's political system away from the rich oligarchs who have controlled and owned it for so long ... and impoverished such a huge proportion of the population ... he must serve the political base from which he derives his voting strength.

David Sheegog davidsheegog@hotmail.com

London [<a href=www.riyadhdaily.com.sa>Rtr]............................................

World oil prices fell further Thursday, rattled by the prospect of a swift return of Iraqi exports which overshadowed depleted oil stocks in the United States and OPEC signals of a fresh output cut. International benchmark Brent crude oil fell 12 cents to $25.47 a barrel, having lost a hefty 74 cents on Wednesday. U.S. crude futures fell 19 cents to $28.39, having touched a five-week high near $30 on Tuesday. "Iraqi production does seem to have recovered to some extent and there is some nervousness ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Qatar on June 11 — but I think they will take a pragmatic decision and accommodate higher Iraqi production," said Steve Turner of Commerzbank. Iraqi oil officials expect exports to resume in two or three weeks after repairs to oilfields, refineries and pipelines damaged by looting and war.

The first barrels are expected to come from storage tanks, but a steady flow of freshly produced crude is expected to follow swiftly as output is rising fast. Dealers were also awaiting fresh market direction from US energy stock data later in the day. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the data to show only very slender gains, with crude stocks rising a meagre 140,000 barrels and gasoline by 175,000 barrels, which would still leave inventories considerably below year-ago levels. Stock indications are crucial because in summer U.S. gasoline demand peaks, accounting for 12 percent of global energy consumption as holidaymakers hit the roads in their cars.

"The high builds in stock levels that were expected earlier in the year just haven’t materialised, and the market could be fundamentally tighter than had been thought in the third quarter," said Turner. OPEC member Venezuela said on Wednesday the group could slash up to a million barrels per day of output at the forthcoming meeting. OPEC has already agreed last month to cut back on excess supplies pumped ahead of the war in Iraq, with cuts taking effect on June 1. The International Energy Agency, the West’s energy watchdog, said the cartel should resist calls for cuts at the June 11 meeting and help replenish lean industry stocks.

Meanwhile, international oil companies are anxiously awaiting the outcome of a maritime border dispute between Malaysia and its tiny neighbour Brunei, oil industry sources told Reuters on Thursday. Sources in Brunei, who requested anonymity, said during the past few weeks a Malaysian patrol vessel had chased off a French oil company’s team carrying out exploration work in the disputed deep waters area. Wedged between the two Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak on the north-west coast of Borneo island, the oil-rich sultanate of Brunei, with a population of just 330,000 people, has been careful to keep relations friendly with its far bigger neighbour.

Brunei’s ruler Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah and Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad discussed the dispute during talks in the northern Malaysian city of Penang last weekend. "That was an annual meeting between them and there were other matters which both leaders were interested in... such as the exploitation of maritime resources in that area," Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar was quoted as saying by local media after the meeting. That fleeting reference was the only public acknowledgement of a dispute that oil companies have known about for months.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Thursday, May 29, 2003 By: David Coleman

Venezuelan Guayana Corporation (CVG) executives are expecting to reach additional joint venture agreements with the Iranians after signing a deal with the Iran Tractor Manufacturing Corporation to set up a Fabrica Nacional de Tractores (Fanatracto) production plant in Ciudad Bolivar

The Memorandum of Understanding between the CVG and the Islamic Republic of Iran was signed in Tabriz, north of Teheran, by CVG president, Major General (ret.) Francisco Rangel Gomez as part of his business trip to the Middle East which ends this weekend.

"Iran Tractors have given attention to our particular interest in establishing a plant in Venezuela with their international experience in tractor building ... in Tabriz, we were able to see complete tractor production lines for all sorts of tractors and spare parts ... we have agreed that a technical Iranian team will supervise Fanatracto installations to see if they fulfill business requirements or if should we seek out another location in Venezuela."

Rangel Gomez had earlier met Iran's Minster of Industry & Mines, Eshaq Jahanguiri, to discuss parallel growth policies in Iran and Venezuela. The CVG president said the Iranians are willing to participate in a variety of projects with the CVG with their main emphasis on the exploitation and production of gold, alumina production and coal. Meanwhile, he says, the CVG's goal is to form a strategic association with mutual exchange of technical assistance and technology, specifically at CVG Venalum.