<a href=www.washingtonpost.com>washingtonpost.com Friday, May 30, 2003; 7:15 AM

The long-sought beginning of the end of President Hugo Chavez's "Bolivarian revolution" is at hand. On Thursday, Chavez's government signed a plan brokered by the Organization of American States that could conclude his contentious reign by December.

The agreement, which some liken to a virtual suicide pact for the Venezuelan president, requires Chavez to submit to a binding referendum on his tenure. If he loses the referendum and is then not allowed on the ballot in a new presidential election, he will be out of office halfway through his current term. That is, if Chavez intends to comply and not simply use the agreement to dupe the international community into going away and further weaken his already battered opponents.

U.S. officials and others in the international community--as well as the Venezuelan opposition--say they will press Chavez relentlessly to abide by the outcome of the agreed-upon "electoral exit." And so they should. But this time they should really be careful not to overplay their hand.

With Chavez's political end in sight, the temptation for the opposition will be to denigrate anything and everything that he represents. But such actions risk alienating his supporters and ignore the opposition's own end of the bargain, which in both cases could help Chavez survive or give him an excuse to withdraw from the agreement.

Disillusioned with politicians that ignored their plight for years, millions of Venezuelans turned to Chavez and his promise to end the cruel irony of dirt-poor life in an oil-rich land. On these sentiments alone, Chavez remains popular among the disaffected. Personalizing opposition to him or offering little to the poor directly will cement their commitment to Chavez.

According to the agreement, the opposition must refrain from actions that may incite more violence, and also concentrate efforts to ensure that the media will play an impartial role in the events to come. Any backtracking by the opposition or Chavez will only make things worse for the country now.

The Bush administration's policy on Venezuela has caromed clumsily between two regrettable extremes: benign neglect and diplomatic blunder. More recently, it seems to be echoing the Venezuelan opposition's doubts that Chavez will stick to the plan if he believes he may not come outvictorious.

With that in mind, some observers outside the administration have begun to suggest threatening an oil boycott to keep him from balking. After all, the thinking goes, the United States is Venezuela's No. 1 customer, and as such carries one "big stick" to pummel Chavez into compliance.

But so far there is no indication the Bush administration is considering such an ill-advised tactic that would mostly hurt those Venezuelans already at the bottom, those who already suspect that Washington never fully trusted their ballots democratically cast for Chavez.

Viewed from here, their situation has hardly improved under Chavez. His social vision had merit, yet after more than four years in office, often appearing more concerned with antagonizing his enemies than with governing, he has strayed far from the path of responding to popular needs and discontent.

Chavez has presided over the worst economic contraction in his nation's history. Last Friday, Venezuela's Central Bank reported a 29 percent drop in the country's gross domestic product during the first quarter of this year. At its worst, Argentina's GDP dropped 20 percent in four years.

A great measure of the blame also falls on the shoulders of the opposition that organized a destructive strike at the end of last year aimed at forcing Chavez out, regardless of the economic cost to the country. With elections imminent, now is the time for the opposition to prove that it stands for something and not just against Chavez.

Opposition forces have begun efforts to gain ground among Chavez's supporters and to show commitment to a social agenda. Yet the initial, tragic results have only proved the complications of the task. One person died and many others were injured during a rally organized by one opposition party last weekend in a Caracas slum.

Ironically, the first phase of Chavez's "electoral exit" may be the easier one for the opposition--winning the referendum. A scant 30 days later, opposition forces would then have to unite behind a candidate. If they fail, and if Chavez gets on the ballot through Supreme Court intervention, the opposition's actions might prove to be its own undoing. This week's agreement then would have been merely a beginning with no end in sight.

Marcela Sanchez's e-mail address is desdewash(at symbol)washpost.com.

english.peopledaily.com.cn Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, May 30, 2003

The Venezuelan government and the opposition signed an agreement on Thursday aimed at paving the way for ending the 14-month political crisis in the country.

The Venezuelan government and the opposition signed an agreement on Thursday aimed at paving the way for ending the 14-month political crisis in the country.

The signing ceremony, in a Caracas hotel, was presided over by Secretary-General of the Organization of American States Cesar Gaviria, the main architect of the agreement.

Gaviria hailed the accord as "a good agreement for every Venezuelan, the democratic institution, and the future of every citizen."

"Through the signing of this agreement you're taking a definitive step to prevent the proliferation of political violence," he said.

Ambassadors of Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the United States, the countries that helped mediate the reconciliation, were also present at the ceremony.

In the 19-point agreement, a result of seven months of negotiations and reached last Friday, the two sides agreed to holda possible constitutional referendum on President Hugo Chavez's presidency after August 19, the mid-point of his six-year term, todecide whether Chavez should step down.

The opposition Democratic Coordination had demanded a binding referendum on Chavez's continued tenure, while Chavez wanted the opposition to use a constitutional measure that allowed the recallof the president once he had served half his term.

The political crisis erupted in April last year when Chavez wasbriefly ousted by a coup.

Although Chavez was not present at the signing ceremony, he expressed in a nationally televised message his appreciation of the opposition's acceptance of the mechanism to take him out of power by constitution.

It meant that a government could not be changed "through a coupd'etat, murder, or perverse plans to stop the economy and destabilize the country," he added.

The agreement failed to set a poll date, but Gaviria told the press on Wednesday that such a referendum could be held around November.

Venezuela is facing a deep recession, high inflation and unemployment following the two-month opposition-led strike at the end of last year, which suspended oil exports of the world's fifthoil producer and slashed government revenues.

Three Providence youths testify in support of a bill that would allow students who are undocumented immigrants to attend the state's public colleges.

05/30/2003 BY MARION DAVIS The Providence Journal Staff Writer

PROVIDENCE -- Liseth Rincon graduated from Central High School last year with a 4.0 grade-point average. She had been active in extracurricular activities. Getting into college should have been a breeze.

But Rincon, 18, was born in Venezuela. She came here with her family three years ago, and she has no green card, no Social Security number.

She found out in her senior year what that meant for her dreams.

No state or federal financial aid -- so forget private colleges. Out-of-state tuition at the University of Rhode Island, well beyond her reach. And exclusion from the schools she might be able to afford, Rhode Island College or the Community College of Rhode Island.

Each year, as many as 50,000 to 75,000 students like Rincon graduate from the nation's public schools, according to the Chronicle of Higher Education. The U.S. Supreme Court has recognized their right to a K-12 education, but through a combination of federal law and local policies, their journey often

tcpalm.com Another crackpot Peronist is in charge, and the economic outlook is bleak.

May 30, 2003

Argentina's new president is off to a not-very-promising start. That's not great news for what should be one of Latin America's most prosperous and dynamic countries.

Nestor Kirchner was sworn in Sunday, the sixth in the last 18 months.

During that time, Argentina has defaulted on $141 billion in debt, unemployment is at 18 percent and about half of the population lives in poverty.

Kirchner is a Peronist, a member of the party that got Argentina in this fix through reckless government spending. After getting 22 percent of the vote in a first-round ballot, he won the presidency by default when his unpopular opponent dropped out.

During the campaign, he blamed American-style economic reforms for much of his nation's woes. At his swearing-in, he promised to defend domestic jobs and industry, which sounds a lot like protectionism.

Applauding heartily were invited guests Fidel Castro of Cuba and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, neither an exemplar of growth and prosperity. One would think South America had had enough of zany leftist experiments.

The Argentine people deserve so much better than they've gotten from their government. Maybe Kirchner will be a surprise and turn the nation around. If he does, it will be just that — a surprise.