Crude prices drop as significant output from Iraq's largest oil field seen within weeks.

money.cnn.comApril 14, 2003: 6:53 AM EDT

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices opened the week one percent lower Monday, as the prospect of a return of Iraqi crude exports to the world market outweighed possible supply cuts by OPEC to avert a potential price slide.

U.S. light crude for June delivery fell 37 cents to $27.77 a barrel, while London's Brent crude for June delivery fell 25 cents to $24.50 a barrel.

Renewed downward pressure on oil prices came after weekend comments by a senior U.S. engineer that Iraq's large Kirkuk oilfields could start pumping within weeks.

The northern fields are capable of producing up to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iraq's pre-war production of roughly 2.5 million bpd.

"It's a definite possibility that could be just a few weeks away," said Tom Logsdon, a senior member of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers charged with repairing Iraq's oilfields.

Logsdon said the southern oilfields, where output was up to 2.1 million bpd before the war began March 20, could be up and running in less than three months.

"Depending how quickly workers come on line, we estimate we will have between 330,000 and 1,000,000 bpd being produced within 12 weeks from now," said Logsdon.

Oil prices fell about 10 percent after the start of the war as U.S. and British forces quickly secured a majority of Iraq's oil infrastructure in the south of the country and traders predicted a fairly swift end to hostilities.

But any resumption of crude exports will be up to an interim authority in Baghdad in conjunction with the United Nations, where some analysts forecast that diplomatic wrangling will keep Iraqi barrels off the market for many months to come.

Iraq's crude could hit world markets just as demand is expected to wane by up to two million bpd. The second quarter sees a seasonal slowdown between winter demand for heating and the peak consumption of gasoline during summer vacations.

Compounding the demand downturn, many commercial airlines have slashed routes due to the spread of the flu-like SARS virus around the globe.

At the same time, supplies from OPEC producers are running almost two million bpd above the group's self-imposed ceiling, to counter supply disruptions from Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is planning an emergency meeting later this month or in early May to discuss tightening compliance to current output quotas or even possible curbs to formal limits.

"We expect that with oil prices heading lower, OPEC will try to be proactive in attempting to keep oil prices at, or above, $25 a barrel," said David Thurtell, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.

The International Energy Agency said last week that a big volume of OPEC crude was sitting on the water waiting to hit consumer shores, but warned that it would be imprudent for producers to cut supplies too soon as fuel stockpiles in industrialized nations remain well below normal levels.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Friday that South America's biggest oil producer was ready to back any proposed OPEC supply cut to support prices in the group's target band of $22 to $28 a barrel for OPEC's reference basket of seven crudes.

OPEC's basket price stood at $25.40 Thursday, compared with a monthly average of $31.54 in February.

"If we have to cut production by one million bpd, or 1.5 million bpd, or 1.8 million bpd, we would be ready to cut," Chavez told a news conference.

An anti-Chavez strike in December and January slashed crude production in Venezuela, usually OPEC's third biggest producer, from 3.1 million bpd to just 40,000 bpd at its low point.

Officials at state oil firm PDVSA said over the weekend that output had recovered to pre-strike levels of about 3.05 million bpd for crude and 150,000 bpd of condensate production.  

<a href=www.heraldtribune.com>The Associated Press-heraldtribune.com

Postwar Spending Boom May Not Materialize BOSTON (AP) - Last fall, the prospect of war took much of the blame for corporate America's unwillingness to spend money, as uncertainty about the effect on oil prices, stock markets and budget deficits crippled the economy. But hope reigned that when the conflict was resolved, companies would commence previously postponed projects, resuming capital spending and lifting the whole economy. Now, many aren't so sure.

Poll Finds Opposition to More Tax Cuts WASHINGTON (AP) - With the country at war and facing budget deficits, six in 10 Americans say this is not the time for more tax cuts, an Associated Press poll finds. Still, half say their taxes are too high. The poll, taken in the days before Tuesday's tax-filing deadline, found that 61 percent say it would be better to hold off on additional tax cuts now to avoid making budget deficits worse and ensure there is adequate money to pay for the war.

Machinists at Lockheed Plant to Strike FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) - Members of the union representing about 4,000 workers at Lockheed Martin Corp.'s Texas aircraft manufacturing plant took to the picket line early Monday, hours after rejecting a contract offer and voting to strike. At 12:01 a.m., as Lockheed Martin Aeronautics' contract with Machinists Local 776 expired, about 20 people began picketing outside the plant. Calls to the union's office were not immediately returned.

Immigrants Make Use of IRS Tax ID Numbers SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Ernesto Cuellar filed his taxes this year not just to report what he made from his $9-an-hour job as a house painter, but also, he hopes, to speed his path to becoming a legal resident of the United States. Cuellar submitted his federal return using an increasingly popular tax number issued by the Internal Revenue Service to people who can't get Social Security numbers. Many, like Cuellar, are undocumented immigrants, causing concern among critics of U.S. immigration policy.

Restoring Iraq's Economy May Take Years CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - Saddam Hussein took a wealthy, thriving country and drove it into the ground. Restoring Iraq's economy will take years, analysts say, even with the world's second-largest proven oil reserves. The hurdles are formidable: bombed-out roads, bridges, buildings; offices stripped by looters; outdated and corroded facilities in polluted oil fields; fallow farm fields ruined by waterlogging and salinity.

IMF, World Bank to Assess Iraq's Needs WASHINGTON (AP) - Fact finders from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will go to Iraq to assess the hugely expensive costs of reconstruction as soon as it is safe to do so. The finance ministers on the policy-setting committees of the IMF and World Bank "made it very clear that this is what they had in mind," World Bank President James Wolfensohn said Sunday, when weekend meetings of the two organizations ended.

World Bank Urges Lower Trade Barriers WASHINGTON (AP) - Global poverty can be cut in half by 2015 if rich countries lower trade barriers and increase foreign aid, the World Bank said Sunday. Poor countries can help themselves by investing more in health and education, the bank said.

Fed Official Sees Moderate Economic Rise PHILADELPHIA (AP) - The U.S. economy will experience moderate growth by year's end, but no sharp postwar rebound, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia predicted Sunday in his annual forecast. Anthony M. Santomero expects the economy to be growing at 3 percent to 4 percent by the end of the year and into 2004 as businesses start to fill depleted inventories and rehire workers.

Venezuelan Oil Output Hits 3.2M Barrels CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela's oil production has risen to its highest level since before a two-month strike crippled operations, the energy minister said Sunday. Rafael Ramirez said Venezuela was pumping 3.2 million barrels a day, up slightly from 3.1 million at the end of March. Venezuela's output quota determined by the OPEC oil cartel is 2.8 million barrels a day.

Gold Prices LONDON (AP) - Gold bullion opened Monday at a bid price of $325.50 a troy ounce, down from $326.60 late Friday.

Japan Markets TOKYO (AP) - Japan's benchmark stock index hit a 20-year low for a second straight session Monday on concern that corporate pension funds were dumping shares. The U.S. dollar was higher against the Japanese yen.

Dollar-Yen TOKYO (AP) - The dollar traded at 120.64 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market Monday, up 0.86 yen from late Friday.

Last modified: April 14. 2003 4:38AM

Cambridge Asset Management By Martin & Bart Siegel, CPA, CFP

Second-guessing doesn’t count especially when you have no responsibility for outcomes. This particularly includes retired generals appearing as pundits, offering conflicting views of the unfolding war scenario. Military success is a function of perception, as well as reality. When their actions erode confidence in leadership, they are in essence giving aid to the enemy. This phenomenon also takes place in our economy. When political leaders erode confidence in our economy by making unjustified statements, or thwarting positive action, they are in essence promoting recession, or at the very least delaying our potential recovery.

Again it is the media, stupid. The reporters that are imbedded in the military units have assumed the obligation to report honorably, as accepted members of their units. They aren’t supposed to practice punditry. We are encouraged to believe what they report. This holds true domestically. Their obligation is report the news, not slant it according to their philosophical, or political, desires. If they want to editorialize, it should be labeled as an opinion, not fact. As we approach the next election we will watch the polarization of the media, and politicians. It is difficult to find politicians that believe that there are things more important than their political self-interest. You are even witnessing news networks blatantly splitting along political lines.

A clear example of this is the confusion over drilling in ANWAR. The key to this problem is the 60 votes necessary to prevent a filibuster in the Senate. Isn’t it clear that this has become a national security issue? Without oil from ANWAR, our reliance on Middle Eastern crude according to an energy department agency is to grow from 24% in 2000, to 50% in 2020. Other examples of our oil interdependence is the recent labor strike in Venezuela, which exports 2.5 million barrels per day, as well as the political unrest in Nigeria, which is another major oil exporter. One would think that our Senators would realize that it is crucial that we reduce our dependence on foreign sources of oil. The anti-drilling coalition continues to pull out the same, worn out, protests to drilling. They describe the 2000 acres of permafrost muck on which total darkness descends for 58 days each year, where the temperature drops to 70 degrees below zero, as pristine wilderness. They claim they are worried about the caribou. The caribou actually thrive near the oil fields, where they find some warmth under the pipelines. Then they question the amount of oil that will be derived. They describe it as only a small fraction of US consumption. What they seem tend to leave out is the production of ANWAR could replace10 years of Iraqi production. They also seem to forget that the production of 10 billion barrels of oil will affect the supply/demand function, thus reducing oils overall price.

We at Cambridge have said many times that we recognize our responsibility to remain honest as we report to our readers. We offer opinions, as well as honest data. By providing data, which we used to form our opinions, it allows our readers to interpret the data, and form their own conclusions. The stock market, at any moment in time, is a closed system, with a limited supply of shares outstanding. This offers an opportunity to investors. Each investor synthesizes the information they deem relevant, and comes to their own conclusions. There are only three actions available, that is to buy, hold, or sell. These decisions are made by millions of investors, both large, and small. Those that own stock in an emerging market generally make money. It is that simple. When the tide rises, most boats rise. The number of investors that outsmart the market is extremely small.

It is our considered judgment that we are witnessing a broadening base that is now several months old. We believe that the stage is being set for the next market advance. There are those that do not wish the public to become optimistic about their future. They do not believe it is in their own political self-interest. There are also reporters willing to sacrifice your families well being in order for them to achieve their own career goals. First it was hiding the horrific treatment of the Iraqi people. Then it was the number of body bags that would be coming home. Now that that hasn’t occurred, it is the turmoil, and the cost of rebuilding Iraq. If you go back to World War II did you know that the French killed as many as 50,000 of their own countrymen, in revenge, after the war ended? Lets not even talk about the cost of the rebuilding Europe. Where is the objective journalism? Where are the congratulations for President Bush from the Democrat politicians for a successful mission? Where is the talk of cooperation in jumpstarting our economy? It is a sad situation.

We at Cambridge continue to believe in our leadership. We believe that our Harvard MBA President is up to the challenge presented him, even considering the poisonous political environment. We believe that order is going to be brought to Iraq. This example of potential consequence for rogue nations will hopefully promote peace in the Middle East. We also believe that a positive economic package will be passed, and will be coordinated with intelligent monetary. This should bode well for the economy. We are entering a presidential cycle. Historical trends are on our side. Stay strong, and remain confident.

Monday, April 14, 2003 By LAVINIA DeCASTRO Courier-Post Staff CAMDEN

As music fills the hallways, nearly everyone who passes by stops, drawn to the irresistible melody.

By the end of Brazilian composer Hector Villa-Lobos' Estrela e Lua Nova, more than a dozen people have gathered around the students.

The music stops. The trance is broken. One by one, the onlookers return to their tasks.

That happens every time the Creative Arts High School choir performs.

Those who have heard the choir are not surprised to learn it defeated 39 other choirs from 11 countries to win first place at the Days of International Choir Music competition in Verona, Italy.

"It wasn't the most important thing for us to win," said 17-year-old Christina Vazquez, a 12th-grader. "It's more for the rest of the students here because now we set the precedent. Now they know they can do it."

Ten students, three teachers and two parents were in Verona from April 2 to 6.

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"We have been planning this for three years," said music teacher Suzzette Ortiz. "Last year we couldn't go because of Sept. 11."

The trip cost $1,500 per person. Corporate donations paid for part of it, but each student had to raise $600.

"They had to work hard for this," Ortiz said.

Money wasn't the only concern. Parents were worried for the safety of their children.

But the students say they bonded with other choirs from the United States and they found Europeans to be anti-war, not anti-American.

With songs from all over the globe - including Argentina, Venezuela and Italy - Creative Arts proved that even the smallest choir can have a diverse repertoire.

"I tried to make it as international as I could," Ortiz said. "We're trying to teach the students to be well rounded."

A group of German students was touched by the sheer determination of choir members, who won the competition despite war, a tight budget and two members with the flu.

"What they told me was, `You actually showed us to work harder, you inspired us,' " said 18-year-old Carlos Sime, a 12th-grader.

Before leaving Italy, the German choir sang "You've Got a Friend" by Carole King.

"I couldn't talk to them because I was overwhelmed by emotion," Sime said.

Reach Lavinia DeCastro at (856) 486-2652 or ldecastro@courier postonline.com

<a href=www.alternet.org>Alertnet.org By Amy Hamilton-Thibert, yomamasays.orgApril 14, 2003

At many of the anti-war events I have been to in the last short while, the overwhelming sentiment is that something called "peace" should happen as soon as possible. Many of the events themselves are billed as being "for peace" and many of the participants carry signs and banner that speak about peace. Logical, right? Antiwar=peace, you dimwit! It's as simple as that, many people would say. Well . . . I'm gonna come clean. I'm wary of this "peace" idea. What's not to understand about the desire for peace? I can't quite put my finger on it – but when I try to, I come up with more questions than answers.

For one thing, when I see people of color at marches and rallies, I rarely see them holding signs or banners that talk about peace. I notice that their signs, instead, often talk about "justice." Why?

Aren't justice and peace the same thing? Are they? Is justice peaceful? Is peace just? What is peace? Is it just peace and no fighting? Is it no bombs? For example, if peace happens, is the U.S. still allowed to engage in covert activities in Colombia? Can the CIA topple Chavez in Venezuela? Is that peaceful or not? What about other army projects – can our forces still occupy Afghanistan or parts of the Philippines and have troops just about everywhere else under peace? Can there be a military under peace?

Does it mean that if the U.S. stops dropping bombs on Somalia . . . I mean, the Sudan . . . er, no, I forgot, Afghanistan . . . oops, what I meant to say was Iraq . . . then there is peace? Or does it mean that if we stop the sanctions, then there is peace? Does it mean if we pay the Iraqi people $5 for every child lost since we first dropped bombs on them however many years ago, that there would be peace? Do we pay taxes that go toward building stealth bombers and not our own health under peace? Will some of our children still be hungry in peaceful times? Is peace ours? Or does it belong to everybody else on earth, too? And does it belong to the earth itself?

All these questions and no answers. Meanwhile, I'm still hearing this thunderous white cry for Peace! Peace! Peace!

I think I've got it figured out, after all. In peacetime, we don't have marches and rallies for the young women that work in maquiladoras for worse than shitty pay making all the shit we use to clothe our own well-fed young women. In peacetime, we don’t have much of a problem ignoring the plight of sweatshop workers in our own cities. In peacetime, we don't need to discuss the fact that our most favored nation is China.

In peacetime, we don't have to listen to what our best trade buddy China does to Tibet, or to its own people. In peacetime, it seems to be easier to ignore that our good friend Israel is the recipient of the hugest percentage of U.S. foreign aid, and to be unaware of the fact that Israel is not so quietly or covertly going about their own campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Palestinians.

I wonder if the Palestinians thought the U.S. was at "peace" a few years ago when they began the latest intifada. In times of peace we don't hear the ground we walk over every day screaming up at us, "What have you done!?" Most of the time, I'd venture that us white folks feel peaceful enough not to be bothered to look at the blood of the slaughtered indigenous peoples on our ancestors' hands.

Maybe "peace" means that white people don't have to hear about what our government does to other countries or what we've done inside our own borders. Maybe peace should otherwise be known as "free to go about our business without guilt nipping at our heels." Maybe white people want peace because they hope it will keep death and danger at bay. When I see signs that say "Peace Now," I often think to myself that it should read underneath, "(I am scared; I am guilty. I don't want bad things to happen to me and my family.)"

My movement is the anti-imperialism, anti-oppression movement. I refuse to fight "for peace." Does that sound angry? Does that sound uppity? Is that upsetting? I'm sorry if sounds that way, and let me be straight: I do not want war or killing, certainly not. But to ask another question, don't we need justice more than we need a comfortable, air-conditioned, sound-tracked, airbrushed, leather-upholstered SUV-driving, sweatshop-clothes buying, racial profiling, meat-eating, bourgeois, mother-fucking peace?

If peace means that we go right back to the nightmare that we were living before we started dropping bombs this past week, then I don't want peace, I want a revolution.

Amy Hamilton-Thibert lives in New York City with a revolutionary 2-year old and a French man who has removed the word "freedom" from his lexicon.