By Hil Anderson <a href=www.upi.com>UPI Chief Energy Correspondent From the National Desk Published 4/7/2003 6:17 PM

LOS ANGELES, April 7 (UPI) -- The coalition's military progress in Iraq kept oil prices on the run Monday despite OPEC's plans to meet later this month to discuss possible cuts in crude production in an effort to shore up prices.

May crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 66 cents on the day to $27.96 per barrel after hovering slightly above $28 during the morning hours while traders digested reports that OPEC ministers would meet April 24 to presumably talk about the post-war supply situation and the winding down of the "war premium" that had pushed NYMEX to nearly $40 per barrel in February.

London crude fell 10 cents to $24.85 per barrel.

Crude also appeared to be influenced by NYMEX gasoline futures, which dipped 2.78 cents to 84.25 cents per gallon.

The downturn in futures prices should deflate retail gasoline prices somewhat in the United States as the annual summer increase in demand looms. The national average price for a gallon of regular at the pump Monday was $1.637, according to AAA, compared to $1.643 the previous day and $1.683 a month ago.

OPEC officials had little comment Monday on the Vienna meeting's agenda; however, ranking energy officials in the cartel's member nations have recently spoken of a "glut" of crude rather than any shortages caused by the war.

"Things have been very fragile, which is why we've seen the prices where they've been," Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, told the Los Angeles Times. "If there are no further disruptions of supply from other countries, then we'll see the supply-demand fundamentals improving week to week."

OPEC has increased its output this month to a combined 26.3 million barrels per day despite political and ethnic strife that cut production in Venezuela and Nigeria. Nigerian exports are expected to resume in the coming days while Venezuela has gradually returned to normal export levels.

In addition, U.S. and British officials are hoping that Iraq can begin exporting in the near future as well in order to help finance its post-war reconstruction.

Iraq's southern oil fields were seized largely intact by coalition forces early in the campaign and could begin producing this summer once repairs are completed.

The impact that Iraq's return to the market will have on short-term prices is still the subject of debate. Some analysts foresee the low oil inventories in the United States acting to support prices while others opine that the psychological impact that a flush market will have on traders will cause prices to fall further.

<a href=www.troyrecord.com>AFX News Ltd. April 10, 2003

PARIS, Apr 10, 2003 (AFX-Asia via COMTEX) -- The International Energy Agency said global oil production rose by a further 740,000 barrels per day in March, after February's 2.25 mln bpd increase.

OPEC crude supply gained 95,000 bpd with higher output from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait helping offset losses from Iraq and Nigeria.

Non-OPEC supply increased by 240,000 bpd, the agency said.

The Paris-based agency left its 2003 global oil demand forecast virtually unchanged at 78 mln bpd, compared to 78.01 mln bpd in February.

Though damage to oil infrastructure in Iraq appears limited so far, the timing and extent of supply recovery both from Iraq and Nigeria is uncertain, it warned.

OPEC spare capacity is low, but that is partly offset by significant volumes of oil on the water plus seasonal demand decline, it added.

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SAN FRANCISCO — A federal judge yesterday temporarily blocked the Bush administration from relaxing rules dictating whether cans of tuna can be labeled "dolphin safe," suggesting new labeling rules could lead to more injuries and deaths among dolphins that swim with tuna.

U.S. District Judge Thelton Henderson, in issuing a preliminary injunction, wrote that the decision to change the dolphin-safe definition appears to have been influenced more by international-trade policies than scientific evidence.

Allegations in a lawsuit filed by Earth Island Institute, Henderson wrote, "raise a serious question as to the integrity of the (Commerce Secretary Donald Evans') decision-making process."

Although Evans "wisely refrained" from mentioning trade-policy concerns as justification for the new label rules, the judge said there is "little doubt" that he faced pressure from Secretary of State Colin Powell to liberalize the rules, as requested by fishing fleets in Mexico, Venezuela and other Latin American countries.

The National Marine Fisheries Service announced in December it was altering the rules at the request of foreign fishing fleets that said they need the dolphin-safe label to compete in the U.S. market and vowed not to use the label on tuna catches that result in known dolphin deaths.

Thursday, April 10, 2003 · Last updated 11:12 p.m. PT By JORGE RUEDA <a href=seattlepi.nwsource.com>ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER   Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, right, and journalist Ignacio Ramonet smile, during the opening ceremony of the "world meeting in solidarity with the Bolivarian revolution" at the Teresa Carreno theater in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday, April 10, 2003. Chavez was surrounded by intellectuals and activists who support his "revolution," as he celebrated his return to power after a short-lived coup one year ago.

CARACAS, Venezuela -- A year after soldiers temporarily ousted President Hugo Chavez, Venezuelans find themselves steeped in economic crisis, bitterly divided - and with Chavez's hold on power stronger than ever.

"I know it's a contradiction, but the coup, and Chavez's return - even if things are worse now - renewed my faith that we can develop our democracy," said Jesus Mendoza, a 45-year-old businessman who says he's opposed to Chavez.

Most Latin American governments condemned the April 12-14, 2002, ouster of Chavez, a leftist former army paratrooper who led a failed 1992 coup, was jailed for two years and then was elected president in 1998 on a platform that criticized Venezuela's corrupt democratic system.

The United States initially blamed Chavez for his own downfall before joining other members of the Organization of American States in condemning the ouster of a democratically elected president.

Chavez was arrested in the early hours of April 12 - military commanders announced he resigned - after 19 people died during an opposition march to the presidential palace on April 11. Videotape shows gunmen firing recklessly into the crowd.

The march came after opposition labor and business leaders called a general strike to denounce what they called Chavez's Cuba-style economic policies. Both pro- and anti-Chavez supporters died that day. But under a Venezuelan justice system subject both to Chavez's influence and its own institutional corruption, no one has been convicted in the slayings.

An interim government led by Pedro Carmona, head of Venezuela's leading business chamber, dissolved Congress, the courts and the constitution - angering hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans, who took to the streets to demand Chavez's return. Cuba, meanwhile, steadfastly insisted that Chavez hadn't resigned.

A loyalist army general sent his troops to a Caribbean island where Chavez was being held and brought him back in triumph to the presidential palace.

"It wasn't a matter of whether you were for or against Chavez, even if I believe we're better off without him," said Carlos Isturiz, a 22-year-old university student. "It was about defending democracy."

Carmona's one-day presidency was marked by persecution of Chavez allies and ruling party members, recalls Desiree Santos, a pro-Chavez legislator who went into hiding during the police manhunt for so-called "Chavistas."

"They chased us down like dogs," Santos said of the raids. "But we were certain the president hadn't resigned."

Once restored, a seemingly chastened Chavez called for reconciliation among Venezuelans. Soon, however, he saw conspiracies everywhere - and moved to crush them. He purged the military of dissidents. He has repeatedly assailed the private sector, opposition political parties, the news media, labor unions and the Catholic Church, repeatedly calling them "terrorists."

In November, his government agreed to talks with the opposition, mediated by the Organization of American States. In principle, the two sides have agreed that a popular referendum on Chavez's presidency may be held halfway into his current term, which ends in 2007. But no formal pacts have been reached, and no single opposition candidate has emerged.

In December and January, Chavez weathered a devastating two-month general strike, one called by business and labor to demand that he resign. The strike failed, though it briefly crippled Venezuela's crucial oil industry and left the economy in ruins.

The economy shrank 9 percent last year and may contract by as much as 40 percent this year. The bolivar currency lost more than 30 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar before Chavez suspended dollar sales in this import-dependent nation. Annualized inflation surpassed 30 percent. Poverty is persistent, afflicting at least 70 percent of Venezuela's 24 million people.

Many analysts and citizens wearily cite Venezuela's paradox: A state of permanent conflict under Chavez that has rendered the nation virtually ungovernable - and a lack of immediate alternatives to his populist, authoritarian tendencies.

"Chavez only knows how to talk about projects that never materialize while we suffer increasing poverty, unemployment and fear," said Amarilis Soto, a 68-year-old retired accountant.

Lefigaro.fr (Reuters.) Eric de La Chesnais [11 avril 2003]

L'Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole paraît aujourd'hui placée le dos au mur. L'unité affichée depuis le 29 mars 2000 est à nouveau mise à rude épreuve. Alors que la guerre en Irak s'achemine vers une victoire américaine, la réalité de la situation d'un marché pétrolier surapprovisionné éclate aujourd'hui au grand jour. «Les pays de l'Opep produisent actuellement plus de 2 millions de barils/jour au-dessus de leur quota officiel de 24,5 millions de barils par jour», expliquait hier le président de l'Opep, le Qatarien Abdallah Ben Hamad al-Attiya, lors du quatrième sommet pétrolier international à Paris. La prime de guerre, en maintenant les prix à niveau élevé, couvrait jusqu'à présent le déséquilibre. «Cette prime atteignait même jusqu'à 8 dollars sur le prix du baril», selon Nordine Aït-Laoussine, l'ancien ministre algérien du Pétrole.

Avec l'accélération des événements en Irak, la donne a changé. Le risque d'approvisionnement lié à la guerre s'est éloigné. «Le pays ne produit plus que pour ses besoins intérieurs, soit entre 300 et 400 000 barils par jour», selon un expert. «Le Venezuela produit 70% de ses capacités (2,4 mbj) et la situation s'est stabilisée au Nigeria», ajoute-t-il.

Cette situation pourrait même s'aggraver. «Le surplus pourrait atteindre 4 millions si le Nigeria et l'Irak reviennent à leur pleine capacité de production de pétrole», explique Abdallah Ben Hamad al-Attiya.

La traduction de cet état de fait sur les cours du brut ne s'est pas fait attendre. Ils sont repassés en dessous de 30 dollars. Hier, en milieu d'après-midi à Londres, le brent cotait 24,88 dollars le baril en baisse de 44 cents. A New York, en soirée, le WTI reculait de 1,39% à 27,46 dollars.

Sans réactions de l'Opep, la chute des cours risque de se poursuivre. «Si le cartel ne fait rien, les prix du baril tomberont en dessous des 22-28 dollars, la fourchette de prix jugée «raisonnable» par l'Opep, ajoute Abdallah Ben Hamad al-Attiya. Il y aurait donc urgence. «Les pays membres de l'Opep doivent prendre des mesures radicales et rapides pour enrayer la surproduction actuelle et la chute des cours qui en découle. Il n'y a certes pas de risques d'implosion de l'Opep. L'Organisation a déjà survécu à des crises où le baril valait 8 à 9 dollars. Mais de sérieuses discussions auront lieu pour éviter que le scénario de 1998 ne se reproduise», assure Nordine Aït-Laoussine.

La réunion extraordinaire des membres de l'Opep, prévue à Vienne pour la fin avril ou début mai, sera donc décisive. Tous les scénarios seront passés en revue pour éliminer le surplus de pétrole. «Nous avons deux options : réduire la production ou respecter les quotas. Ce sont toutes les options ouvertes que nous avons pour stabiliser le marché et essayer d'éliminer le surplus», affirme le président de l'Opep qui se dit favorable à un baril à 25 dollars. «L'Opep a atteint une certaine maturité, agissant assez vite et arrivant à gérer le marché de manière satisfaisante», confie pour sa part Pierre Terzian de Pétrostratégies.