<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, April 14, 2003 By: VHeadline.com Reporters

"There was a lot of confusion outside Venezuela during the last year about what has been happening ... some people have asked how could progressives and trade unionists support the Venezuelan government of President Hugo Chavez given the dedicated opposition of the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers (CTV)? How, when there was a general strike, could we side with the government rather than workers?”

Next Tuesday's (April 16, 2003) issue of New Zealand's Green Left Weekly clarifies the situation saying that there should be no confusion today ... "the CTV has been exposed as an arm of the employers' association Fedecamaras, with which it has been allied in the April 2002 coup d'etat and in the so-called general strike earlier this year."

"It was a strange general strike, indeed ... one in which workers in the oil industry, electricity, transport, public sector and other basic industries kept working and management walked out ... a strike in which workers were laid-off by the big local and multinational conglomerates, but were promised that they would receive full pay for the period of the lock-out (only now to discover that this promissory note was dependent on the companies defeating the Chavez government)."

Green Left Weekly continues ... make no mistake about it, this “general strike” was a capitalist offensive, supported by the US and its clients, to bring down the pro-poor Chavez government. Its immediate effect was an enormous blow to Venezuela's economy because of the loss of oil revenues for several months following the shut-down of PDVSA, the national oil company, by its managers. There were also losses in tax revenues that resulted from the lockouts and a tax strike by the companies. The resulting “opposition deficit” will make this year a difficult one under any circumstances but particularly so as the government attempts to meet the enormous needs of the Venezuelan people.

However, a longer term effect of this offensive by Venezuela's capitalist oligarchy has been a development of the political consciousness of the poor (most of them in the informal sector) and organized workers. There is a mood among workers of self-confidence -- one which emerged when the workers in PDVSA ran the company by themselves after management and technicians abandoned it.

In workplace after workplace, workers are talking about taking over and running their enterprises as cooperatives. PDVSA itself now has two representatives of its workers on its management board, and an associated petrochemicals firm is being run as a cooperative. This process is just beginning, but it looks like capital has lost one of its major weapons, its ability to threaten a capital strike -- rather than giving in, Venezuelan workers are moving in!

On March 29, a new labor federation was formed ... The National Union of Workers (UNT). The new federation emerged out of a long process of discussion which began last July among the Bolivarian Workers' Force, the workers' movement that is aligned with the Chavez government, the Bolivarian Circles, grassroots organizations among the poor, and independent trade unions (both in and outside the CTV) that are not “Chavist” but which support the general direction of the government.

At the core of these discussions was the question of how autonomous the new federation would be in relation to the government. After the last capitalist offensive, the matter has been resolved -- the UNT will be independent, class-oriented, democratic and revolutionary.

At its formation, the UNT already represents more workers than are nominally represented by the CTV, which will lose any credibility it has had outside Venezuela as its member unions leave. (Indeed, the petroleum workers' union, from which the current head of CTV Carlos Ortega came, is itself a key union in the UNT).

Of course, capital does not give up so easily ... through the CIA and its various fronts, such as the National Endowment for Democracy (which financed the American Center for International Labor Solidarity's support for the CTV), Venezuelan opponents of Chavez's “Bolivarian Revolution” will attempt to maintain the support of international labor federations such as the US AFL-CIO, the International Confederation of Free Trade Unions and the International Labor Organization.

This is why it is especially important now for progressives and trade unionists to inform themselves of what is happening in Venezuela and in the Venezuelan workers' movement.

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By Reuters, 4/13/2003

SINGAPORE, April 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices opened the week one percent down on Monday, weighing up the prospect of a return of Iraqi crude exports to the world market against possible supply curbs by the OPEC cartel to avert a potential price crash.

U.S. light crude fell 29 cents to $27.85 a barrel.

Renewed downward pressure on oil prices came after weekend comments by a senior U.S. engineer that Iraq's giant Kirkuk oilfields could start pumping within weeks.

The northern fields are capable of producing up to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iraq's pre-war production of roughly 2.5 million bpd.

''It's a definite possibility that could be just a few weeks away,'' said Tom Logsdon, a senior member of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers charged with repairing Iraq's oilfields.

Logsdon said the southern oilfields, where output was up to 2.1 million bpd before the war began on March 20, could be up and running in less than three months.

''Depending how quickly workers come on line, we estimate we will have between 330,000 and 1,000,000 bpd being produced within 12 weeks from now,'' said Logsdon.

Oil prices fell about 10 percent after the start of the war as U.S. and British forces quickly secured a majority of Iraq's oil infrastructure in the south of the country and traders predicted a fairly swift end to hostilities.

But any resumption of vital crude exports will be up to an interim authority in Baghdad in conjunction with the United Nations, where some analysts forecast that diplomatic wrangling will keep Iraqi barrels off the market for many months to come.

VENEZUELA SUPPORTS OPEC CUT

Iraq's crude could hit world markets just as demand is expected to wane by up to two million bpd. The second quarter sees a seasonal slump between winter demand for heating and the peak consumption of gasoline during summer vacations.

Compounding the demand downturn, many commercial airlines have slashed routes due to the spread of the flu-like SARS virus around the globe.

At the same time, supplies from OPEC producers are running almost two million bpd above the group's self-imposed ceiling, to counter supply disruptions from Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries is planning an emergency meeting later this month or in early May to discuss tightening compliance to current output quotas or even possible curbs to formal limits.

''Higher prices, slower economic growth, warmer weather in the northern hemisphere and lower jet travel due to the SARS outbreak have all depressed the demand for oil,'' said David Thurtell, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.

''We expect that with oil prices heading lower, OPEC will try to be proactive in attempting to keep oil prices at, or above, $25 a barrel,'' Thurtell said in a research note.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Friday that South America's biggest oil producer was ready to back any proposed OPEC supply cut to support prices in the group's target band of $22 to $28 a barrel for OPEC's reference basket of seven crudes.

OPEC's basket price stood at $25.40 on Thursday, compared with a monthly average of $31.54 in February.

''If we have to cut production by one million bpd, or 1.5 million bpd, or 1.8 million bpd, we would be ready to cut,'' Chavez told a news conference.

An anti-Chavez strike in December and January slashed crude output in Venezuela, usually OPEC's third biggest producer, from 3.1 million bpd to just 40,000 bpd at its low point.

Officials at state oil firm PDVSA said at the weekend that production had recovered to pre-strike levels at about 3.05 million bpd for crude output and 150,000 bpd of condensate production.

Forbes.com-Reuters, 04.14.03, 8:20 AM ET By Jonathan Leff

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Nigeria, battling for a bigger share of OPEC's output, has pushed capacity to over 2.5 million barrels per day -- and may use it all next month despite an expected cartel move to cut production.

Oil companies fearing more pre-election strife ahead of a presidential poll in Nigeria next week may be slow to resume full production after ethnic violence shut in over a third of the African country's output for half of March, analysts said.

But new developments have added more than 200,000 bpd of capacity this year, a figure that should double by late summer -- all from offshore fields removed from the west Niger Delta violence that closed some 800,000 bpd of production.

"Nigeria is going to be at absolutely full throttle," said one Western industry source familiar with production levels. "We're looking at 2.5 million bpd."

The International Energy Agency, the Paris-based advisory group to 26 industrialised nations, estimated Nigeria's sustainable production capacity in March at 2.44 million bpd. Nigeria has targeted year-end capacity of three million bpd.

Since mid-March, Nigerian produced well below its previous 2.3 million bpd level due to violence around ChevronTexaco's Escravos output and Royal Dutch/Shell's Forcados, costing a total of over 10 million barrels of output.

Production is slowly recovering to nearly three-quarters of normal levels, but the companies indicate a return to full production appears unlikely before May.

That may be as much for political reasons as practical ones as Nigeria braced for its second democratic vote since military rule ended in 1999.

"It's less a question of what's possible and more what is happening politically," said Gary Still, executive director of African energy consultancy CITAC. "Elections are coming, I think it's probably unlikely the (production) situation will get much better before there's some clarity on the political situation."

TotalfinaElf, which has only the small 7,500 bpd Upomami field on-shore Nigeria, has more or less written off trying to restart production before the election cycle ends.

And oil companies who buy the crude -- many of them U.S. refiners who put a premium on Nigerian crude's low-sulphur, gasoline-rich qualities ahead of the summer driving season -- say they have made other arrangements for the rest of April. Some are even shying away from May barrels, traders say.

Parliamentary elections at the weekend were more peaceful than many had feared, with only 10 deaths reported so far.

President Olusegun Obasanjo faces his vote on April 19. Since independence, Nigeria has never had a successful transition from one civilian administration to another.

OPEC BIND

Nigeria's production woes last month could not have come at a worse time. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was then turning a blind eye to massive quota cheating in order to avoid a price spike after Iraq's output shut down.

The situation now is quite different.

Prices have fallen by a third and a move to crack down on overproduction during the weak second quarter is afoot.

"The question is, if there's a shortfall this month, does Nigeria get an exemption from OPEC to allow them to make up this shortfall?" said one industry consultant, who asked not to be named. "I'm sure they will be producing well in excess of their allowance over the next few months."

But OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah has said the cartel traditionally does not compensate members for unexpected losses, citing recent cases in Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq and Iran.

If output tops 2.5 million bpd, that will put the country some 25 percent over its official OPEC quota.

Nigeria could make up its estimated 20 million barrels of lost production by pumping an extra 330,000 bpd for two months or an additional 220,000 bpd over three months.

Expectations that Nigeria would maximise production from unaffected fields to compensate the outages appear to be unfounded, according to oil traders who track exports.

OFFSHORE UPS OUTPUT

The rapid expansion of production from Africa's most populous country comes courtesy of foreign investment in expensive deepwater developments -- money oil majors will want to recoup as quickly as possible with maximum output.

Exxon Mobil's offshore Yoho platform has scheduled nearly four cargoes in May, implying production of nearly 120,000 bpd after it started up in January, market sources say. Shell's EA, which came onstream in February, will produce nearly 80,000 bpd.

Agip started up its offshore Abo field in April, targetting 30,000 bpd in a few months time.

The tipping point is likely to be TotalfinaElf's Amenam development, which is scheduled to start up in the middle of the year, eventually pumping some 125,000 bpd, analysts say.

Shell's massive Bonga deepwater development will add over 200,000 bpd early next year, the company says.

channelnewsasia.com First created: 14 April 2003 1945 hrs (SST) 1145 hrs (GMT) Last modified: 15 April 2003 0557 hrs (SST) 2157 hrs (GMT) By Dawn Teo

Oil prices have dropped about 30 percent since the start of the war in Iraq, sparking concerns that a possible oversupply could cause prices to crash soon.

But analysts believe the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) can contain the fall.Advertisement They are banking on signs the oil cartel will decide to cut production when they meet later this month or in early May.

Crude prices continued sliding on Monday, down 1 percent in Asian trade, on prospects that Iraqi oil could start flowing in coming weeks.

The US is keen to see Iraqi oil pumping as soon as possible to help fund the country's reconstruction.

But that means trouble for other OPEC members, which have been bumping up supplies to counter disruptions from Iraq and other producers.

Ong Teng Tong, Senior Energy Consultant, Itochu Petroleum, said, "Even if they cut, we still think the oil prices may still go down because right now, Nigeria is probably back to normal production and Venezuela, there was a big strike about 2 months ago. They are practically back to normal."

There are problems on the demand side as well.

As winter draws to a close in the second quarter, demand for heating and therefore crude oil tends to fall.

What is worse, many airlines have slashed their routes due to the spread of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus, so they are buying less fuel as well.

Still, many analysts predict oil prices will stabilise at between US$24 and US$26 a barrel.

That is roughly the mid-point of OPEC's own target range, which members like Indonesia and Algeria say, is achievable.

War in Iraq - Channelnewsasia.com's special coverage

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, April 14, 2003 By: David Coleman

Operation Holy Week 2003 has got off to a good start in Aragua State with 736 law enforcement officers patrolling beaches along the Caribbean coast where an estimated 255,000 day-trippers are expected during the Holy Week period.

The main concentration of tourists is expected at Ocumare La Costa (195,000 capacity) and Choroni (60,000) where local Civil Defense executive Felix Perez says that a bathing ban has been imposed by the Ministry of Environment & Natural Resources (MARN) at the mouth of the Ocumare and on the El Playon and La Jaivita.

Aragua Fire Chief Mauricio Sanchez says that 300 emergency servicemen and women are deployed at key points along the coast as well as in Colonia Tovar, Camatagua and Villa de Cura where a religious procession is set to take place.

National Guard (GN) commander Edy Ramirez Moyeda says four control points have been set up in El Limon, Choroni and the resorts at Turmero and Villa de Cura while special attention is being given to traffic the Center-West Highway from Caracas to Valencia in an effort to reduce road accidents caused by drink-driving.

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