Bookmark-- El Universal: Daily News and Summary

IMF predicts 17 percent downfall in Venezuelan economy

"Even though the strike in the state oil company (Pdvsa) has recently been terminated, estimations show a 17 percent shrinkage in real GDP, while inflation rate is to amount to 40 percent by the end of the year," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.

See also

• OPEC efforts ease disruption in oil markets
• Venezuelan Vice President denies air raids against Colombia
• OPEC is creating a tidal wave of crude oil that cannot all be absorbed
• Political jittery in Venezuela causes concern in Italy
• EDITORIAL COMMENT: The negligence of deputies in Venezuela
• 33,523 people have been killed in Venezuela during President Hugo Chávez's term
• Four pro-government April 11 shooters released on probation
• "We want neither guerrillas nor paramilitary"
• The military wing of the Venezuelan revolution
• Draft bill on crimes relating to foreign exchange trades
• Flash REPORT (Venancham)

LATEST NEWS

The Caracas Stock Exchange Index (IBC) closed lower on Thursday, losing 23.52 (0.28 percent) compared to the previous session, El Diario de la Bolsa said.

The IBC closed at 8,492.60, while the Industrial Index and the Financial Index finished at 6,848.33 and 15,905.02, respectively.

In 35 transactions, 312,496 shares were traded for VEB 114,008,256.35. At the end of the day, one share closed higher, two fell, and six remained steady.

In the fixed-income market, commercial papers and public bonds were traded for VEB 9,9 billions in 760 transactions.

A year after the violent events of April 2002, Venezuelan human rights organization Cofavic issued an official statement rejecting the impunity that has surrounded those events. "Up to now, there is no arrested or sentenced person in connection to death and lesions caused to hundreds of people from April 11 to April 14, 2002," the group said.

Cofavic expressed its concern about the abandon in which relatives of the April 11 victims have been left. It said that during April 12,13, and 14 "anarchy and a disproportional use of public forces seized the capital."

"In the hope to reach justice, Cofavic accompanies the relatives of César Matías Ochoa and Alexis Bordones, who died during the tragic events nearby presidential palace Miraflores on April 11, 2002, as well as the relatives of Rommy José and Yurmi Noé Nieto Laya, two young people murdered by alleged officers from Policía Metropolitana on April 12, 2002," the statement continues.

The organization also remembered other cases and said that "up to now all the cases remain in impunity and in the first stage of the criminal investigation. There is no acceptable explanation for" this lack of progress.

EARLIER NEWS

Amnesty International urged the Venezuelan government to investigate the violations to human rights committed during the events of April 11, 2002, that resulted in more than 50 dead.

In its official statement made public today, the human rights organization said that "Venezuela's government and opposition have failed to face up to their part in the tragedy and ensure that those responsible are brought to justice," news agency Efe reported.

"It is time that both the government and opposition stop attempting to use the events of April 11 to serve their political agendas and instead create the climate in which the facts can be established, justice can be secured and the victims can receive reparations," the organization said.

"The recent dismissal of murder charges against those accused of shooting from the Puente Llaguno, and the failure to charge Metropolitan Police implicated in the deaths and injuries suffered on 11 April, demonstrate the weakness of the official investigation. It also raises serious concerns about the capacity of the state to effectively prosecute all those responsible," the statement continued.

"The investigation and judicial process must lead to justice for the victims and their relatives, in order to avoid the pattern of impunity of other notorious cases of serious human rights violations which haunt Venezuela's recent history," said Amnesty International.

The world meeting in solidarity with the Bolivarian revolution, gathering as of today opponents to globalization and neo-liberalism who support president Hugo Chávez, was installed with a speech delivered by the director of the French newspaper "Le Monde Diplomatique," Ignacio Ramonet, who spoke about "the war in Iraq and the new international order," news agency Efe reported.

Before criticizing the invasion of Iraq by US and British forces, Ramonet expressed his solidarity with "the Bolivarian democratic revolution," and with Chávez, to whom he described as a "democratic ruler."

The only reference to Venezuela in his speech was devoted to the "involvement" of United States in the "criminal attempt against Venezuelan democracy" on April 11, 2002, and the risk that Venezuela could be an objective in the new US foreign policy, based on its military supremacy.

Ramonet said that the power US will wield from now on in Iraq could have an impact on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -that US considers an "adversary"- as well as on Venezuela, which belongs to this cartel.

The meeting is held to celebrate the first year of the return of Chávez to power after being overthrown for 48 hours by a civic-military coup. The participants include the US sociologist James Petras; the militant French farmer Jose Bové, the Philippine ecologist Walden Bello, the British historian Perry Anderson, and the Bolivian indigenous leader Evo Morales.

The Venezuelan Defense minister, Gen. José Luis Prieto Silva, said on Thursday that he does not believe "that Colombia has any interest in disturbing the government of the president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Hugo Chávez Frías, as no country with so close links with Venezuela, and even less a Bolivarian nation, should disturb a democratic government."

Prieto added that those intending to create discrepancies between Colombia and Venezuela will not achieve their goal. "Venezuelans have a very clear idea of the historical background of bilateral relationships, and nobody will make us fall into the trap to propitiate a conflict between two neighbor countries."

Roy Chaderton, the Venezuelan Foreign Affairs minister, stated on Thursday that he is confident that the United Nations is to recover "its capacity" as a guarantor of peace and that multilateralism will prevail in addressing Iraq's future, news agency EFE reported.

Chaderton is in Madrid, where he and his Spanish counterpart, Ana Palacio, have discussed bilateral relationships and war in Iraq, among other issues.

Asked about the repercussions of the Iraqi conflict on crude oil exports and prices, Chaderton defended the current role of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). "OPEC should continue an group having influence" in reaching reasonable production and price levels, he stressed.

As to the meeting between Venezuelan and Colombian presidents, Hugo Chávez and Alvaro Uribe, respectively, scheduled for next week, Chaderton said it will be a "cordial" interview, where security and business topics are to be addressed. He reminded that every time that campaigns against drug traffic are launched, there are people interested "in making Venezuela and Colombia fight," but that will not happen.

The Venezuelan Vice President, José Vicente Rangel, denied on Thursday that President Hugo Chávez's government is opposed to a recall referendum aimed at terminating Chávez's mandate, an option that the Negotiation and Agreement Table is currently evaluating as a solution to the country's political crisis.

Rangel claimed that "multiple revoking referenda" may be held, not only to challenge Chávez's administration, but also the performance of all officials elected by the people's vote. He did not rule out the possibility of general elections.

"Forget this idea that the government does not want recall referendum; this government respects the Constitution," he stated.

"If the National Electoral Council (CNE) requests the recall referendum and the vote is agreed, once signatures are collected or when the validity of signatures already gathered is determined, the government is ready to facilitate funds and security" for the binding popular consultation.

Eighty-three percent of Venezuelans comprise the socioeconomic group D, with a monthly income inferior to $625, according to a study prepared by the consultancy firm Datos Information Resources.

The company confirmed that consumption in Venezuela has been dropping steadily in the last years: by the end of 2002, household monthly expenses amounted to VEB 20 billion, VEB 8 billion lower than the figure recorded by the end of 2001.

Datos predicted a 13 percent fall in consumption for this year, linked to a 15 percent decrease in Gross Domestic Product.

A group of Colombian top officials started on Thursday an investigation on the reports of supposed Venezuelan Air Force attacks against a paramilitary group in Colombian territory, news agency AP reported.

"They are going to record the testimonies of peasants in the area that claimed to have witnessed the raids," Colombian Defense minister, Martha Lucía Ramírez, told radio station W FM.

The incident reportedly occurred on March 21 and 22 at La Gabarra area, 280 miles northeast Bogotá, when the paramilitary clashed with guerrillas of the rebel Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC).

Ramírez explained that the Colombian government "has not issued an official statement on this case," as the reports by peasants is the only information available so far. "For this reason, we have sent five military delegates and three officials from the Foreign Relations Ministry (to the area) to hear witnesses, verify the events and prepare a report," she added.

Alí Rodríguez, president of the state-run oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (Pdvsa), said on Thursday that he expects that crude oil exports from Venezuela to average 2.95 million barrels per day in April.

Venezuela, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is therefore showing a rebound in its vital oil sector, after an opposition-led two-month nationwide civic strike that ended in February.

In an oil conference being held in Paris, Rodríguez stressed the ascending course of exports, which in March amounted to an average 1.93 million bpd, 891,000 bpd in February, and 577,000 bpd in January.

A proposal presented by Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, and Planning minister, Felipe Pérez, to control interest rates and reduce the spread between loan and savings interest rates by 10 points is setting off alarms in the Venezuelan Central Bank (BCV) and the Banking Superintendence. Sources at the BCV directorate have said that the most suitable way to lower interest rates is using market mechanisms, while the Banking Superintendence has stated in a report that the Venezuelan banking system is well capitalized and provisioned, but if a rate control is implemented such a move will have an impact on the financial sector.

In average, in Venezuela the bank profitability significantly relies on the preservation of the spread between loan and savings rates, which amounted to 17.3 points by the end of February.

The 11th Crime Control Court issued arrest warrants for dissident National Guard officers Juvenal Mora and Víctor Valero, who declared in civilian disobedience against President Hugo Chávez, like other several dozens of soldiers based at Plaza Francia, Altamira, northeast Caracas.

The court's judge, Deyanira Nieves, decided that there is evidence to prove their involvement in civilian rebellion, incitement to sedition (performance of acts that lead people to take up arms against government), conspiracy for rebellion, and illegal possession of war weapons. Punishment for rebellion ranges from 12 to 24 years in prison.

April 10, 2003, 2:14PM Reuters News Service

PARIS -- The head of the West's Energy watchdog said today that OPEC had shown through its sharp increase in oil output to cover for Iraq that the once-feared cartel is no longer a threat to rich nations.

Claude Mandil, executive director of the International Energy Agency, told Reuters that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had demonstrated they share goals with oil importers such as the United States.

"The past months have proved that OPEC and consumers can share a lot of common goals," Mandil said in an interview.

"I don't feel OPEC is a threat. Thirty years ago it was considered so because oil was used as a weapon," he added.

Cartel leader Saudi Arabia, Iran and other OPEC members have lifted oil supplies sharply to cover for the shortfall from Iraq, and other export hitches in Venezuela and Nigeria, helping to cool a spike in prices.

OPEC's reference oil price has slumped from above $33 per barrel last month to below OPEC's target level of $25 this week.

The Paris-based agency was set up in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis, when Arab oil powers placed an embargo on the West. It oversees huge emergency stockpiles to be used in the case of another major supply disruption.

But cooperation between the two bodies has grown to such an extent that the IEA held back from releasing stocks when Iraqi exports stopped last month, trusting in OPEC's ability to maintain ample supplies.

OPEC ministers are now discussing a cut in supplies to stop prices falling further.

Mandil said OPEC and oil importers still disagreed over price, and said OPEC's $25 per barrel target was so high as to damage world economic growth. It also constituted a disincentive for companies to hold sufficient inventory levels, he said.

"Price is not a shared goal. I say this price is too high," Mandil said, declining to specify his ideal price.

"We believe the price should be the result of market forces, not market management," he said.

<a href=www.newsday.com>By Associated Press April 10, 2003, 1:53 PM EDT

LONDON -- OPEC should think twice about cutting production to boost sagging oil prices because supplies remain short and the immediate outlook remains cloudy, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

But OPEC's president, Abdullah Hamad bin al-Attiyah of Qatar, said Thursday in Paris that the world's oil markets are glutted, and the resumption of Iraqi oil production could make that worse.

Officials at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Monday that oil ministers planned to meet April 24 in Vienna, Austria, whether or not the war in Iraq has ended.

Most OPEC members have been producing at maximum capacity to keep supplies plentiful during the war. However, oil ministers fear that OPEC might be oversupplying the market just as demand starts falling to its seasonal low.

The Paris-based IEA, which represents the world's wealthiest countries, said stocks were low in member nations, and there were doubts about the export situations in Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela. "Significant production curbs ... may impact upon the industry's ability to rebuild stocks," the report said.

Al-Attiyah said the current crude oil excess totals more than 2 million barrels a day.

The IEA said OPEC may find that managing falling oil prices will be as tricky as controlling recent high prices.

On London's International Petroleum Exchange, North Sea Brent futures for May delivery fell 50 cents to $24.75 a barrel in late trading. At the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 75 cents to $28.10 a barrel in afternoon trading.

With oil prices over $25 a barrel, the incentive for some OPEC members to cut output may fade, the IEA said.

Saudi Arabia pumped an extra 450,000 barrels per day in March compared to February, raising daily output to 9.32 million barrels, the IEA said. The Saudis have reportedly turned down requests for extra volumes of oil from customers, and there were unconfirmed signals that "the recent sharp ramp-up in production may be drawing to a close," the IEA said.

The report said supplies are uncertain because of unrest in Nigeria's main oil-producing region, which has cut the country's output by 40 percent. However, production is increasing in Venezuela following civil disturbances there.

The IEA cut its forecast for average demand in the second quarter, which it now sees at 76.38 million barrels per day, down 2 million barrels daily in the first quarter.

Friday 11.04.2003, CET 06:20 <a href=www.swissinfo.org>swissinfo March 24, 2003 1:55 PM

Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS, has said it will transfer frozen Iraqi-held deposits in the United States to US authorities.   UBS said the funds, blocked in 1990 under United Nations sanctions, had been confiscated by the US Treasury and would be transferred to the US government soon.

Swiss neutrality comes under the spotlight   The confiscation is part of an order last week from the Treasury Department to 17 banks in the US.

The total money involved, said to be about $1.74 billion (SFr2.41 billion) without interest, comes from transactions between US oil firms and the Iraqi state oil company, the UBS spokesman added.

He declined to reveal how much cash was involved in UBS’s case but confirmed it was likely to be in the millions of dollars.   Reconstruction   The US has pledged to use most of the money for a fund earmarked for rebuilding and providing humanitarian aid to the Iraqi population.

The Swiss foreign ministry on Friday reported that Washington had asked Switzerland to freeze any bank accounts held by Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein and his associates.

There has been no official reply, but the Swiss finance minister said earlier this month that there were no signs that Saddam Hussein had accounts in the country.

“That statement is still valid. We have no indications that he had money in Switzerland,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Livio Zanolari.

“But you can never rule anything out,” he added.

Friday 11.04.2003, CET 05:42 <a href=www.swissinfo.org>swissinfo April 9, 2003 8:05 PM   Ahmad Chalabi is widely expected to lead a post-war Iraq (Keystone Archive)

The chief of the Iraqi National Congress, Ahmad Chalabi, has been billed as Washington’s favourite to head a post-Saddam administration.   But his past is clouded by unsavoury financial dealings in Switzerland.

In Brief

Chalabi ran the Geneva branch of the Lebanese bank, Mebco, which was shut down by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission in 1989, due to liquidity and lax accounting.

Another Geneva-based business owned by the Chalabis, Socofi, ran into financial difficulty, allegedly ruining thousands of investors and leaving a SFr140 million ($101 million) hole.

Two of Ahmad's brothers were found guilty of falsifying documents at Socofi.

Ahmad himself has been sentenced to 22 years imprisonment in Jordan for his involvement in the downfall of Petra bank, which has connections with both Mebco and Socofi.

Socofi is also believed to have paid SFr88 million of non-guaranteed funds over a five-year period into companies owned by the family.

On Wednesday, Saddam Hussein's government lost control of Baghdad, after the Iraqi capital fell to United States-led forces. Chalabi ran the Geneva branch of the Lebanese bank, Mebco, which was shut down by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission in 1989.

Mebco is part of the Middle East Banking Corporation of Beirut, which is owned by the Chalabi family.

It was one of only three financial establishments in Switzerland authorised to issue Visa credit cards.

Although there is no record of illegal dealings by the bank, the commission said Mebco was badly run, with liquidity problems and lax accounting procedures. The company is also suspected of handing out unsecured credit.  

Suspect dealings   Several months after Mebco was shut down, another Geneva-based business owned by the Chalabis ran into financial difficulties.

Wednesday’s edition of “Le Temps” newspaper said that Socofi’s downfall is estimated to have ruined thousands of investors and left a SFr140 million ($101 million) hole.

The Chalabi family blamed the first Gulf War as the reason for Socofi’s financial difficulties.

But in September 2000, two of Ahmad Chalabi’s brothers were sentenced to six months in prison in Switzerland for falsifying documents in relation to dealings at Socofi.

Ahmad himself has been sentenced to 22 years in prison in Jordan for his involvement in the downfall of Petra bank, which has connections with both Mebco and Socofi.  

Family affair   The Chalabi family has also come under fire for allegedly using their financial establishments to lend money to their own companies.

Le Temps said Socofi is believed to have paid SFr88 million of non-guaranteed funds over a five-year period into companies owned by the family.

According to the Chalabi family, all the problems encountered by their companies were due to pressure from Saddam Hussein’s regime. swissinfo, Ian Hamel (translation: Joanne Shields)

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