ABC Analysis By Dalia Sussman

April 5 — Three-quarters of Americans are following news of the SARS virus, but with fairly muted concern: Fewer than four in 10 are worried about catching the disease, lower than the levels of recent worry about the West Nile Virus or mad cow disease.

 Thirty-eight percent worry that they or an immediate family member will catch Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. By contrast, 53 percent in a Gallup poll last fall worried about exposure to the West Nile virus, and 45 percent in January 2001 worried about mad cow disease becoming a problem here.

High-intensity concern, moreover, is lower: Only one in 10 are worried "a great deal" about getting SARS.

The World Health Organization reports 2,270 reported cases and 79 deaths from SARS in 16 countries. The CDC reported today that as of April 3, there are 115 U.S. cases in 27 states.

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS Intersearch.

Those Following Media More Worried

Reports of the disease are drawing broad attention. Seventy-four percent say they're following news about SARS — 26 percent "very" closely, 48 percent "somewhat" closely.

Level of attention is a big factor in fear of catching the virus. Fifty-eight percent of those following the news "very" closely express concern about being infected; among those who aren't tuned in, just 24 percent share that level of concern. An open question is whether they're worried because they're following the news closely; or following the news closely because they're worried.

Still, deep concern even among those very closely following the news is low: Twenty percent of these people say they're worried "a great deal" about getting SARS.

Concerned About Catching SARS Among those who watch the news "very closely" 58% Among those who watch the news "somewhat closely" 34% Among those not following the news closely 28%

Women are more likely to be following the news very closely—32 percent are, compared to 19 percent of men. Women are also nine points more likely to express concern that they or a family member will get the virus.

SARS vs. Terrorism

Fear of contracting the SARS virus is at about the same level as concern about being the victim of terrorism was in February — 34 percent were worried about being the victim of an attack, 10 percent worried "a great deal."

When the two are put head-to-head though, fear of terrorism has a slight edge. Forty-two percent are more concerned about being victims of terror than they are about catching SARS. Thirty-five percent fear SARS more. Fifteen percent of Americans say they're not worried about either.

Women are 12 points more likely to say they're more worried about terrorism; men divide about evenly.

People who are following news about SARS divide about evenly on whether their greater worry is the disease, or terrorism. But those not following the SARS news are 23 points more likely to be concerned about terrorism.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 3, among a random national sample of 511 adults. The results have a 4.5-point error margin. Fieldwork was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Previous ABCNEWS polls can be found in our Poll Vault.

Stuff 07 April 2003

NEW DELI: Scientists may have identified the deadly respiratory virus which has killed more than 90 people and this could help control its spread, the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) says.

Gro Harlem Brundtland, secretary-general of the UN's health agency, said laboratory tests indicated the virus behind Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) belonged to the corona family that also causes the common cold.

"So hopefully this intense effort will pay off," she said yesterday, adding however that she had no idea how long it would take to control the outbreak.

Scientists have been struggling to identify the virus as a first crucial step towards trying to control its spread.

Brundtland said international cooperation was needed to battle the flu-like disease and added that China, where the outbreak started late last year, should have shared information much earlier.

The Chinese government has come under fire for a lack of transparency over the disease which has spread around the world, killing more than 90 people and infecting almost 2600.

"I think we are now seeing good collaboration but of course it would have been helpful if we had been able at an early stage to gain access and send the WHO team in."

A team of WHO experts is in Guangdong, which accounts for an overwhelming majority of the total number of deaths and infections in China, to investigate the outbreak.

"We were earlier into Hong Kong then into Guangdong. Now I think the channels are open," she said.

She said it was difficult to say how long it would take to control the disease.

"I wouldn't dare to guess. What we can do is use the expertise worldwide and do whatever is possible," she said, adding that in some countries the governments had acted swiftly and effectively.

"What we can see is that in some of the places where a lot of effort has come in to contain, limit the spread, isolate and deal with the cases...the result has been quite positive."

Symptoms of SARS include a fever above 38 degrees Celsius, aches, coughing and breathing difficulty.

"There could be a number of other people who are really symptomless and who don't really know," she said, but added that such people were not likely to spread the virus.

"Usually in these kind of viruses, it is those who are sick who are the ones that spread."

The virus spreads through droplets by sneezing or coughing, according to WHO, but they have not ruled out the possibility of the virus being airborne.

BBC Last Updated:  Monday, 7 April, 2003, 14:23 GMT 15:23 UK

Retail sales in Hong Kong have fallen by 50% since the outbreak of the deadly pneumonia-type Sars virus, a retail group has said.

The Hong Kong Retail Management Association said it would take months for consumer confidence to recover, as shoppers continued to stay at home to avoid the illness that is so far believed to be responsible for 95 deaths worldwide.

The economic effects of the virus have been felt across Asia.

Firms in China have been issuing face masks to staff and disinfecting offices, and Singapore is to cut its economic growth target as its retail and tourism sectors continue to lose business because of Sars.

The tourism industry has been badly affected across the region.

Economists have also warned that Taiwan's trade figures may be hit by measures designed to prevent the spread of the illness that originated in China, Taiwan's largest market.

Staying at home

Investment banks have reduced their forecasts for economic growth in Hong Kong this year in light of the effects of Sars.

Tourism and retail sectors have been particularly badly affected as people avoid crowded areas in regions where incidents of the virus are high.

Yu Pang Chun, chairman of the Hong Kong Retail Management Association, has called on landlords to halve rents to merchants for three months to help soften the blow.

The Hong Kong Tourism Board said there was a 10% drop in visitors to the territory in the second half of March compared with the same period last year and many flights to the territory have been cancelled.

On Monday, one-quarter of the flights in and out of Hong Kong International Airport were ditched, and 17% of the scheduled flights for April are off the board.

Preventative measures

The World Health Organisation has advised travellers to avoid Hong Kong and the Chinese province of Guangdong.

Some workers have been issued with protective masks

Travel restrictions designed to prevent the spread of the virus are also resulting in companies losing business.

Hong Kong's watch industry has been forced out of a trade fair in Switzerland, owing to concerns over the illness.

The Federation of Hong Kong Watch Trades and Industries said the ban could lose its members HK$10bn ($1.3bn; £830m) worth of business and it plans to sue the organisers for damages.

But Hong Kong's Trade Development Council plans to press ahead with its April trade fairs despite concerns that turnout may be effected by the fear of Sars.

Fear of the virus is also hurting Australia's tourism sector with the country's Federal Tourism Minister describing Sars as the biggest threat to the industry.

Australia has launched a crisis plan to support tourism - one of the most lucrative sectors of the economy.

The plan targets travellers who can reach Australia without having to stopover in areas of Asia that are affected by Sars.

Employers' concerns

Foreign firms with operations in China have reviewed the safety of their staff following the death of a Finnish official with the China office of the International Labour Organisation from the Sars virus.

In the Shanghai offices of German home fittings company Kohler, staff have been issued with medicine and protective face masks and offices are disinfected regularly.

Also in Shanghai, Nestle has issued a memo to staff with information on the disease and has cancelled an event so staff do not have to fly in to the area.

German chemicals maker BASF has set up a special team to ensure staff are aware of the latest information on the disease and high demand from foreign executives has led Beijing United Family Hospital to arrange special presentations to explain prevention of Sars.

Costly

In Singapore the government has said it plans to cut its 2003 growth target of 2.5% as a result of the effects of the Sars virus.

There have been 101 suspected cases of Sars in Singapore, and six deaths.

Economists at BNP Paribas have cut their 2003 growth forecast for the country from 4% to 2.5% as they believe Singapore is likely to be one of countries worst hit by the virus.

Joseph Tan at Standard Chartered Bank believes the effect on tourism alone could cost the country $13m a week, and tourism accounts for over 7% of the country's GDP.

However the World Health Organisation has said that Singapore has nearly contained its epidemic after a dramatic slowdown in infections, although it said a clearer assessment would be made in another week or two.

IHT Paul Krugman NYT Monday, April 7, 2003   NEW YORK Over the last two weeks, nobody has been paying much attention to economic news; even the ups and downs of the Dow have reflected reports from the battlefield, not the boardroom. But the economic news is quite worrying. Indeed, the latest readings suggest that the U.S. recovery, such as it is, may be stalling.

It also suggests that the rate at which things are getting worse is accelerating. In February, U.S. payroll employment fell by 308,000 - the worst reading since November 2001. On Thursday there were two more worrying indicators: new claims for unemployment insurance jumped, and a survey of service sector companies suggests that the economy as a whole is contracting.

Now what? Ever since hopes of a rapid recovery faded last summer, the economy has seemed balanced on a knife-edge. Pessimists warn that the United States is near its "stall speed": growth so slow that consumers, nervous about a weak job market, cut back on spending and send the economy into a tailspin. Yet optimists keep expecting businesses, anxious to update their technology, to resume large-scale investment and create a robust recovery. Both outcomes are still possible, but it seems increasingly likely that consumers will lose their nerve before businesses regain theirs.

Optimists now place their faith on salutary effects of victory in Iraq. The theory is that businesses have been postponing investments until uncertainty over the war is resolved, and that once that happens there will be a great surge of pent-up demand. I'm skeptical: I think the main barriers to an investment revival are excess capacity, corporate debt and fear of accounting scandals. I also wonder whether victory in Iraq will mark the end of uncertainty, or the beginning of even more uncertainty. Are Americans on the road to Damascus (or Tehran, or Yongbyon)? Meanwhile, there's a new concern: Macroeconomic recovery may fall victim to microbe economics. Serious people know that germs pose a far greater threat to mankind than terrorism, and that microbes have been the downfall of many a civilization. SARS - severe acute respiratory syndrome, the new virus from China's Guangdong Province - doesn't look like a civilization-killer. But experts fear that it may be too late to stop the virus from spreading throughout the world. And the bug is already having major economic consequences: Fear of the disease has paralyzed much business in Hong Kong and has led to a drop in air travel worldwide.

Even if SARS doesn't become widespread in the United States, it can do a lot of damage to the American economy because the world has grown so interdependent. Consider this: The most likely engine of a vigorous U.S. recovery would be a renewed surge in technology spending, and Guangdong is now the workshop of the information technology world, the place where a lot of the equipment that we would expect businesses to buy if there was an investment boom. The virus is already hampering production. The result may be to stall an investment recovery before it starts.

The war has monopolized everyone's attention, including mine. But other things are happening, and you shouldn't be shocked if the economic news turns awful.

E-mail: krugman@nytimes.com

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CBS Apr 5, 2003 8:35 am US/Eastern

(CBS) (GUANGZHOU, China) An international team is turning up possible clues to the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome as it tries to follow the disease's tracks across the bustling landscape of southern China.

Chinese experts in hard-hit Guangdong province told the scientists they have found a rare form of airborne chlamydia in some of their SARS patients, raising the possibility that more than one germ may be involved. Other Chinese cases suggest the disease might be passed by touching something tainted by a sick person's mucous or saliva.

SARS continued to spread Saturday even as health officials stepped up their efforts to contain the disease. New cases were reported in Indonesia and Sri Lanka, while Hong Kong reported three more deaths and Malaysia announced its first.

In the U.S., President Bush Friday added SARS to a list of communicable diseases that people can be involuntarily quarantined for. The president signed an executive order adding SARS to the list that includes cholera, diphtheria, smallpox and other diseases.

It's the first time a new disease has been added to the list in two decades.

"If spread in the population," the order says, SARS "would have severe public health consequences."

In Hong Kong, workers covered head to toe in protective gear captured rats and roaches at an apartment complex where at least 250 people were infected. They also rounded up pets — eight dogs, 14 cats, two hamsters and two turtles — after a cat was found to carry a coronavirus.

Coronaviruses are commonly found in animals, but microbiologists believe SARS is caused by a new form of coronavirus. Scientists are trying to determine if animals somehow carried the virus through the complex.

China responded Saturday to criticism of its handling of the outbreak by promising to create a disease warning system and keep its public better informed.

Vice Premier Wu Yi called for establishment of such a system "with emphasis placed on a public health information system," the official Xinhua News Agency and official newspapers said.

Wu's comments were the highest-level response yet to demands that the reflexively secretive communist government change how it handles such outbreaks. It followed an extraordinary apology Friday by the country's top disease-prevention official amid complaints that China released information too slowly.

On Saturday, the World Health Organization team met experts at Zhongshan University who collected hundreds of specimens of blood, lung fluid and other materials from people who died of SARS and those who recovered, said Dr. Robert Breiman, the team leader.

The team wants to map the spread of the disease in Guangdong. WHO suggested comparing samples to find out whether those who died fell victim to a combination of viruses or bacteria, not just one strain, Breiman said.

Chinese authorities say they found a rare, airborne form of chlamydia — a virus usually transmitted through sexual contact — in many who died.

"It raises the question of, if you have one pathogen and you get hit with, say, coronavirus (do) you get a particularly bad disease?" Breiman said. "Or are you more likely to transmit? Do you become what we call a `super spreader'?"

The WHO specialists say a key part of their search will be to draw on knowledge of Chinese experts who know the region and physicians with experience treating SARS patients.

SARS has killed at least 82 people in Asia and Canada and sickened at least 2,200 in more than a dozen nations. Mainland China accounts for more than half the fatalities.

No cure has been found, though health officials say most sufferers recover with timely hospital care. Symptoms include high fever, aches, dry cough and shortness of breath.

On Friday, the WHO team visited Foshan, an industrial city in Guangdong where provincial officials say the world's first known SARS case occurred in November. Guangdong accounts for 40 of the 46 deaths reported by China.

The WHO team said a key to the disease's speedy — yet seemingly erratic — transmission could lie in how the apparent first case, an unidentified businessman, passed it to four people without infecting his children. He survived and was released from the hospital in January.

Many of the world's flu strains are traced to Guangdong and farms where people are believed to contract diseases from pigs and ducks.

But the WHO team says most Chinese SARS cases are city dwellers, and Breiman said no link to animals has been established.

"Contact with animals is still being looked into, but nothing convincing one way or the other has come out," he said.

Another important clue that WHO unearthed from data provided by Foshan health authorities: The illness, originally thought to be transmitted primarily through such direct contacts as coughing and sneezing, appears also to be passed indirectly.

Five of the 24 cases in Foshan show no actual "trace of transmission" to others, suggesting that infection can be spread by touching something tainted by a sick person's mucous or saliva, the experts said.

The spread of SARS has disrupted air travel and forced the closure of schools, hospitals and businesses in many countries. Hong Kong's airport authority said 116 flights, one-fifth of all flights to the territory, were canceled on Saturday.