-------- Mensaje Original --------

Asunto: Los Moderados De: Clara Gonzalez clgonzalez@unimet.edu.ve Fecha: Lun, 3 de Febrero de 2003, 5:32 pm Para:

Fuera del Foro, mientras espero un poco más, aprovecho para enviarles lo que Emeterio Gómez opina sobre los moderados de la Coordinadora Democrática y otros...

From: gentedesoluciones@gruposyahoo.com Date: Domingo, 02 de Febrero de 2003 07:11:23 a. To: gentedesoluciones@gruposyahoo.com Subject: [GdS] los moderados

Los moderados

Emeterio Gómez en gente de soluciones

  Un moderado -también llamado por algunos autores "opositor

democrático"- es alguien que se empeña en hacernos creer que la demencial crisis que vivimos deriva del choque de dos extremismos. No es que el chavismo -férreamente liderado por un fanático- sea en su esencia extremista, precisamente porque dicho liderazgo es férreo y primitivo, porque es impensable un "chavismo moderado", porque nadie que pretenda hacer una Revolución puede ser democrático! Nada de eso, la verdad es que sólo una pequeña parte del chavismo es extremista... y este mínimo sector junto con los extremistas de la oposición son los causantes de esta tragedia.

  No dice el moderado, que hay una preguerra entre, por un lado, el 30% del país, hipnotizado, dominado y acallado por un bárbaro que intenta emular al Che Guevara; y que en cualquier momento es capaz de ordenar, no un ensayo como el de Llaguno, sino una matanza en serio; y, por el otro, el 70% de la sociedad que quiere contarse, que pelea por unas elecciones y que se aferra desesperadamente a la noción de libertad.

  No es -arguye el "opositor democrático"- el choque entre un núcleo duro totalitario, que pretende imponer en Venezuela un igualitarismo decimonónico y el grueso de una sociedad que lucha aguerridamente por la democracia y por no eructarle en la cara a los otros; nada de eso, un moderado es alguien que cree que en este país hay una confrontación entre dos grupos extremistas que quieren la guerra y que, en su irracionalidad, avasallan al 80% de la nación que no "tiene velas en ese entierro".

  Un moderado es alguien que cree que es necesario negociar y que "no podemos seguir atizando los odios" Como si con llamados a la paz se pudiese apaciguar a ¡una bestia! Como si Chávez y sus fanáticos estuviesen allí esperando pacientemente ¡para transar! Como si no se tratara de alguien que de ninguna manera va ¡a negociar!, a no ser que -por el uso de la fuerza- ya esté más o menos derrotado.

  El meollo del asunto. Un moderado es una persona respetable que no ha captado del todo lo que es la polarización. Él  cree que ésta no permite la moderación, por culpa de los extremistas, de estados de ánimo individuales o psicológicos, de personas que no tienen la suficiente fuerza moral para imponer la conciliación. Como si ante alguien que está dispuesto a hacer la guerra, a radicalizar... y a matar, los individuos pudiesen evitar la confrontación.

  Hay moderados que no entienden que de verdad!, a veces, "la

polarización no permite la moderación". Que no es retórica, buenos deseos o fuerza de voluntad individual, sino una dinámica feroz, aplastante y objetiva, en la cual, al querer mantenerse en el medio, nuestros moderados corren el riesgo de ponerse al servicio del Totalitarismo. Un "opositor democrático", además, es alguien que aún no se ha convencido que Chávez es comunista!

  La que nos espera. Chávez ya perdió esta pelea, pero nos esperan meses terribles. No sólo por la agudización de la guerra contra él, sino por la confrontación... con los moderados! Ellos seguirán repitiendo que es necesario negociar, mientras el Che Guevara II seguirá moviendo todas sus piezas, recursos y triquiñuelas, para que no haya elecciones... o para que, si las hay, sean trampeadas. Apelará a todo el inmenso poder que le dan el Estado, las Farc y el chantaje de los Círculos Violentos, para imponerse por la fuerza.

  Los moderados, seguirán insistiendo en que "la salida tiene que ser electoral", sin captar que sólo a través de la fuerza! podemos imponer dicha salida. Porque un comunista sólo hará elecciones con un revólver en la sien! La fuerza de un paro petrolero que arriesga la destrucción del país con tal de no verlo bajo el yugo del Totalitarismo; la de un millón de personas instaladas a vivir en la autopista; o la de unos países amigos decididos a salir de un comunista, aunque para ello tengan que presionar con un par de poderosos alicates dos partecitas muy sensibles de la humanidad de Lula.

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blogs.salon.com By Miguel Octavio The Devil's Excrement

During the last week, there have been what people abroad consider to be positive news surrounding PDVSA activities, specially in believing taht the fiscal picture has improved dramatically. In particular, crude oil production has increased significantly from the beginning of the month. This has been done by emphasizing younger wells with natural flow, which require no injection. Moreover, these wells are mostly located in the Eastern part of the country, rather than in the more “militant” area of Zulia State where Lake Maracaibo is located. As of yesterday, production was up to 1.044 million barrels a day, of which 692 thousand comes from the East, only 269 thousand from the West and 92 from the South. The Western area has about two thirds of the capacity of the country, but they are mostly older wells.

            Gas compression on the other hand, has not increased as much, going from 2.7 billion cubic feet per day in early January to 3.9 billion cubic feet per day now. Total production is normally roughly 9.4 billion cubic feet per day. Where things have change little is in refining capacity. The Puerto La Cruz refinery remains at the same level as the beginning of the month with 75 thousand barrels a day out of a capacity of 120 thousand. Paraguana is barely producing 50 thousand out of a capacity of 800 thousand and El Palito is not producing, due to an accident that took place earlier in the month. Sources in PDVSA suggest that without the return of oil workers, it will be extremely difficult to increase oil production beyond 1.8 million barrels and the likely steady state level will be closer to 1.5 million barrels. Additionally, there is little maintenance going on in any of the areas of business.  To understand the implications of the numbers above better, it is interesting to consider what the “true” fiscal contribution of current or prospective oil production may be. Under normal circumstances, Venezuela consumes 230,000 barrels of gasoline a day, which given current conditions is down to roughly 100,000 barrels per day. Of these, only 20,000-30,000 is being produced locally at the Puerto La Cruz refinery, with the balance being imported. However, imported gasoline is purchased at international prices of roughly $38 per barrel and is being sold in the local market at a price of approximately $5 per barrel. Thus, the net 70,000 barrels that need to be imported are paid with the funds obtained from exporting 532,000 barrels of crude. This currently leaves less than 500,000 barrels that have a fiscal contribution. However, those that result from the production of the operating agreements, approximately 250,000 barrels a day, have a much lower contribution given the conditions under which this exploration tracts were sold. Essentially, the fiscal contribution of these exports is much less, since depreciation and amortization costs can be deducted directly from the fiscal contribution. Note that this calculation assumes the current level of gasoline consumption, so that any easing of the general strike, without PDVSA going back to work, actually goes against the Government, since gasoline consumption may actually increase dramatically. Thus, barely a quarter of a million barrels a day has a full fiscal contribution today.

            Looking into the future another 400,000 barrels of heavy crudes from the Orinoco Belt joint ventures could come on line, if the natural gas situation is normalized and workers could be found to replace those that refuse to go back to work. Once again, the fiscal contribution from these projects is smaller since they pay only a 1% royalty but they do have the usual tax contribution. Thus, any news on the oil front has to be interpreted with care. The country could quickly move up to 1.5 million barrels of production a day, without having a large impact in terms of fiscal contribution. It is only above 2 million barrels of oil a day that the fiscal constraint would ease, but such a level may not be reached in 2003 if maintenance efforts are not sustained.

www.theaustralian.news.com.au From The Sunday Times February 03, 2003

THE myth of overpopulation this century is to be buried by a UN report that will show that average fertility rates will decline to Western levels by 2050. Fears of a population time bomb have dominated environmentalists' and demographers' predictions for decades. Malthusian doom-mongers will be disconcerted by the UN findings, out later this month, which will reveal that women are likely to bear an average of only 1.85 children in all countries by the middle of the century.

Families in developing countries are beginning to limit the number of their offspring as much as those in the West.

"All the evidence suggests fertility is falling rapidly in developing countries with no sign it is going to stop at the magical number of two," said Larry Heligman of the UN population division. "Countries are changing, society is changing."

In Thailand in the 1970s, women were bearing an average of five children. The most recent figures, for 2000, put the number at just under two.

Jintana Aromdee, 33, comes from the rural northeast of Thailand, where big families were the norm until her generation. She has chosen to have only two children.

Infant mortality and childhood diseases previously made it imperative for families to raise sons to work in the fields, while daughters did manual work and household chores.

But as prosperity grew, clean water and basic healthcare meant children were more likely to survive. At the same time, family planning education gave parents new options. "Children are expensive," said Aromdee, who now lives in Bangkok. "All my sisters and cousins, we have only small families."

Women bear on average 2.7 children worldwide, but figures for the West are much lower. In Britain, the fertility rate is 1.61 per woman. In Italy, where the Pope appealed to his flock to produce more babies, the figure stands at 1.2. In Spain it is 1.13 and Russia 1.14.

The real surprise, however, has been the rush towards Western birth rates in previously exploding populations. In Iran, where women bore on average 6.5 "soldiers for Islam" at the height of the Khomeini revolution in the early 1980s, family planning has brought the figure down to just 2.75. Similar downward trends can be seen in Indonesia, India, Tunisia and Brazil.

The UN releases an authoritative report on population trends every two years. In 2000 the average fertility figure for 2050 was estimated at 2.1 children – the replacement level – but recent shifts have been so remarkable that the forthcoming report for 2002 will reduce this projected world average to 1.85. The current Western average stands at 1.6.

Alarmist predictions of a world population of more than 10 or 11 billion by mid-century would not be reached, said Mr Heligman. By 2075, the population could have shrunk by half a billion.

Environmentalists who have predicted famine and scarcity will be confounded by these figures, said Ron Bailey, author of Ecoscam: the False Prophets of Ecological Apocalypse.

"Their fears have been driven mostly by biologists, who compare human beings to antelope or deer," he said. "Animals turn more food into offspring, but countries with the most food don't have more offspring."

www.thevistaonline.com

Editor's Note: These stories would not have been possible without the guidance and help of Lizette Galindez Silva.

by Mark Schlachtenhaufen February 02, 2003

For most students, the biggest worries are finding the time to study for a test or deciding what to do over the weekend.

Carlos Espinel, who graduated from UCO in December, is weighing the biggest decision of his life: whether or not he will return to his homeland of Venezuela and join the opposition coalition working to have President Hugo Chavez removed from power.

Espinel's original plan to go home by February or March has been postponed. Espinel said if he hasn't found a job by June -- he earned a master's degree in business administration -- he will return to Venezuela, against the advice of friends.

"At this moment, I don't want to march," Espinel said.

"If I do not have a job by June, I will go back. The situation is very hard for all of us because we don't have a clear future."

If he returns, Espinel said he would participate in special events organized by the opposition by helping provide food for example. He could provide financial support, or assist with the production of newsletters.

Espinel said he is aware of the consequences of his future actions. Since unrest in Venezuela erupted in April 2002, dozens of people have been killed.

"Anytime you participate in an event, you take a risk to receive a gunshot or something like that," Espinel said.

Espinel said the future of Venezuela is worth the risk.

Since Chavez entered office in 1998, Venezuela has been transitioning from a social democracy into a communist state, Espinel said. If Chavez had his choice, Venezuela would have a communist-type regime and would face political and economic isolation, he said.

"We receive a lot of [advice] from Cuba," Espinel said. "If we take out Chavez, what would be our relationship with Cuba in the future?"

Espinel's mother and father live in Caracas. His mother is a homemaker. His father is a retired retailer. The general strike, while adversely affecting the economy, has not disrupted their day-to-day lives too much, Espinel said.

Others tell different stories. One of Espinel's two brothers lives in Caracas and was recently told not to come to work for a month; there is nothing for him to do as a result of the strike. When Caracas residents fill their cars with gasoline, they wait in line up to 10 hours. A two-liter bottle of Coke costs $3 on the black market, where gas may also be found.

Some canned foods, beer and even Big Macs are now hard to find, since McDonald's franchises recently joined the strike.

"Most of them are closed," Espinel said.

Mail delivery has also been slowed greatly. The last week of November, Espinel mailed some Christmas gifts, destined for family members in Venezuela. As of Jan. 23, the gifts had still not been received, Espinel said.

Espinel said his brothers are "very upset" about the situation in Venezuela. He communicates weekly with his family members by telephone and on the Internet. He gets current news about the crisis from Internet newspapers.

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter is trying to broker a peaceful resolution to the crisis. One solution would be through a Constitutional amendment to shorten President Chavez's term to four years. The other would lead to a recall referendum in August.

Espinel said due to Constitutional provisions, the outcome of the referendum would be that Chavez would step down and the vice president would become the president, a prospect that concerns Espinel.

The vice president is Chavez's right-hand man, Espinel said.

What does the future hold for Venezuela?

"At this moment, we do not know," Espinel said.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Sunday, February 02, 2003 - 1:39:14 AM By: Miguel Salazar

Salazar: 50 million a day set aside for Coordinadora Democratica

Slaves: last November people found it strange when the Interior & Justice (MIJ) Minister appointed a new Passport & Identification (Oni-Dex) board … a lieutenant colonel and a lawyer linked to the old ID system in the golden age of the Fourth Republic have made an art out of legalizing Chinese and Arabs from tourist to transit visas. Where are the 560 Chinese who entered Venezuela in December as tourists and were given Oni-Dex ID cards. Where did the “overtime” money go? Is it true or false that they were connected through a finance company run by a former mayor and Caracas State Governor to finance sabotage program during the national stoppage? Three Oni-Dex offices registered and granted the ID cards. At the Petare Office 429 ID cards were granted to Chinese citizens, who arrived with only a tourist visa. At the La Trinidad office 86 ID cards and at the Valencia II office 78 ID cards. On handing over their tourist visas, each applicant was charged 3 million bolivares, not including travel costs. The ID card was more expensive and then there were “laundered” stamps to pay for. The operation is estimated at a little more that $2 million. It all started at the Venezuelan Consulate in Hong Kong where the visas were granted while the Oni-Dex general director took care of authorizing and supplying the ID cards. What is more serious is that the new ID card holders are unusually illegals. It’s amazing that 429 ID cards were rushed through in one day at one office and signed in record time. Are we witnessing a new form of slavery? These people are under the care of those who brought them in. Not to mention the illegal entry of Arabs legalized at Propatria Oni-Dex office.

Black Cat: Slowly but surely, a new military commotion is getting underway.

Briefcase: An average 50 million bolivares a day have been placed to cover Coordinadora Democratica (CD) costs.

Who’s paying? After more than 2 months of the “military operation” that turned Plaza Francia (Altamira) into “liberated territory,” there are few rooms at night at the Four Seasons Hotel, which was on the verge of closing down before the military action. Top brass rebels only appear in the Plaza tent for press conferences. Meanwhile, it’s a mystery to find out who paid hotel lodgings, even though it is presumed that a lot of money was paid out. BTW, a sector of the Cuban exile is angry over the “mislaying” of funds to pay for rebel costs.

Golf: Some time ago I complained about Intesa-SAIC relationship and the damage it was doing to the country. The history of deals between former Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) executives isn’t exemplary … they depreciated PDVSA. The outsourcing company directed the computing raid and was represented in Venezuela by Pablo Orsolani. SAIC can count on elite IC pensioners. There is a site under investigation for links to sects and cults, which are just beginning to gain ground among the high classes of industrialized classes. Before the stoppage, an exchange of views took place between Intesa-SAIC and top executives linked to the outsourcing on the Caracas golf courses.

Politicians in the service of foreign commerce: Gente del Petroleo sepoys have been making incursions into Judibana (Falcon) Amuay company employees compound. In true Ku Klux Klan style, they harass worker’s families, arriving in cavalcades of luxury cars and cruise around the compound, murmuring unintelligible things and pinning things on doors and windows.

One Chavez Frias: In my next book shortly to be published I write: How can one deny that Chavez Frias is a faithful exponent of Accion Democratica (AD) founder, President Romulo Betancourt’s (1960-1964) conduct. Like Chavez Frias, Romulo was a political warlord who made politics an instrument to his own image and likeness and created a kind of Venezuelan, called the Adeco (Accion Democratica). The paradigm died when Betancourt went. The King is dead! Long Live the King! The Chavist was born with the arrival of Chavez Frias. But what an extraordinary similarity between an Adeco and a Chavist!